Tuesday, 01 December 2015 - 20:00
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Seed Weekly - Investment Greats ? David Dreman
David Dreman is considered one of the greatest contrarian investors of our age. Born in Canada in 1936, David went on to graduate from University in 1958, after which he worked as director of research for Rauscher Pierce, senior investment officer with Seligman, and senior editor of the Value Line Investment Service. In 1977, he founded his first investment firm, Dreman Value Management, and has ever since served as its president and chairman. Since its founding, the firm has consistently stayed true to the contrarian style of investing.
Dreman is seen as a pioneer in the field of contrarian investment strategies and behavioural finance. Over the past 30 years, he has been at the forefront of research into contrarian value investing and behavioural finance, proving that over virtually every time period measured, stocks which were out of favour (as reflected by their price/earnings multiple), did significantly better than stocks considered to have more favourable outlooks. "I paraphrase Lord Rothschild: ‘The time to buy is when there's blood on the streets.'"
It is reported that Dreman came to contrarian investing the hard way. In 1969, Dreman, a junior analyst at the time, was following the crowd as the shares of companies with negligible earnings skyrocketed. He is quoted as saying, "I invested in the stocks du jour and lost 75% of my net worth." As a result of that painful lesson of “following the herd”, he became fascinated with how psychology affects investor behaviour and became a contrarian investor. "Psychology is probably the most important factor in the market – and one that is least understood."
"One of the big problems with growth investing is that we can't estimate earnings very well. I really want to buy growth at value prices. I always look at trailing earnings when I judge stocks."
"I buy stocks when they are battered. I am strict with my discipline. I always buy stocks with low price-earnings ratios, low price-to-book value ratios and higher-than-average yield. Academic studies have shown that a strategy of buying out-of-favour stocks with low P/E, price-to-book and price-to-cash flow ratios outperforms the market pretty consistently over long periods of time."
The Dreman fund family was eventually bought over by other companies. In 2009 his firm chose to hold on to banking stocks as they were crashing during the great financial crisis - in line with his contrarian value investing philosophy. As a result, his firm was removed from management of his flagship DWS Dreman High Return Equity Fund by the board of Deutsche Bank, citing weak performance.
This “deep value” contrarian approach to value investing can result in a hefty debate. It should be said that the buyer must know what he is are buying and not simply buy stocks after their ratios – quality has proven to be an all important factor for mitigating risk of capital loss. "If you have good stocks and you really know them, you'll make money if you're patient over three years or more."
David Dreman has written numerous books over his lifetime. His first book, "Contrarian Investment Strategy: The Psychology of Stock Market Success" (1980) is an investment classic. Other notable books include "The New Contrarian Investment Strategy" (1982) and "Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation (1998). He has also authored numerous scholarly investment articles in the Journal of Investing, Financial Analysts' Journal and The Journal of Financial Behaviour. Dreman has also written the highly respected "The Contrarian" column in Forbes magazine for some 22 years.
Kind regards,
Lourens Rabè
Sources: Investopedia.com, Wikipedia.com, Dreman.com
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Tue, 01 Dec 2015
Top News
Local markets
Although gold mining shares rose 0.69% on Tuesday, losses across almost all other sectors saw the JSE All Share fall 0.14% by close of day. Full story
South Africa's Exxaro Resources said it is still in discussions with Eskom about the joint closure of a coal mine, after the power utility demanded a lower price for the fuel it uses to generate electricity.
"Exxaro is only a mining right holder and Eskom owns the Arnot Mine movabl Full story |
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British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Tuesday his government had unanimously agreed a motion on air strikes against militants in Syria, portraying the ruling party as united on an issue that has split the Labour opposition. Full storyChronic problems with a faulty rudder system and the way pilots tried to respond were major factors in the crash of an Indonesian AirAsia <AIRA.KL> jet last year that killed all 162 people on board, investigators said on Tuesday. Full storyA Philippine court found a U.S. Marine guilty of killing a transgender woman on Tuesday, jailing him for six to 12 years in a case that has reignited debate over the American military presence in its former colony. Full story |
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SA Business | The rand fell to an all-time low against the greenback despite broadbased dollar weakness on Tuesday, with traders citing nervousness ahead. . . Full story | | South Africa's new vehicle sales rose by 0.4 percent year-on-year to 51,256 units in November, data from the trade and industry. . . Full story | | Glencore's struggling South African unit, Optimum, which is currently embroiled in a dispute over the price of coal with power utility. . . Full story | | South Africa's power utility Eskom said on Tuesday it was seeking coal bids for its 2,100 megawatt (MW) Arnot plant, after. . . Full story |
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| A majority of Africans say
corruption has risen in the past 12 months and most governments
are seen as failing to stop bribery and secret deals, an opinion
poll by Transparency International showed on. . . Full story | | The depreciation in South Africa's rand currency has been an important contributor to inflation and is a major risk to consumer price forecasts, the central bank said on Monday, as the. . . Full story | | South Africa's rand reversed losses against the dollar in early trade on Tuesday after touching a record low in the previous session as the greenback retreated from a 13-year peak.. . . Full story |
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Company News | Shareholders are advised that at the annual general meeting of shareholders held on Tuesday, 1 December 2015 (in terms of the. . . Full story | | Coal of Africa Limited ("CoAL" or the "Company") announced the signing of a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (ôMOUö) with Qingdao Hengshun. . . Full story | | The board of directors of Bell ("Board") announced at its meeting held on 30 November 2015 that the Board appointed two. . . Full story | | Exxaro and Eskom have been in discussion for the last two years (since 2013) in relation to the CSA in terms. . . Full story |
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| Shareholders are advised that Diana McIlrath, B Comm LLB has been appointed as company Secretary of Bell, with effect from 1. . . Full story | | CoAL confirmed the following awards to directors following the shareholder approval received at the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders (ôAGMö) on. . . Full story | | Shareholders are hereby advised that there is no change to the CompanyÆs financial circumstances and it remains in final liquidation. Due. . . Full story | | Shareholders are referred to the Reviewed Provisional Condensed Consolidated Interim Financial Statements for the 6 months ended 31 August 2015 released. . . Full story |
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Company Results | Revenue for the interim period lowered by 7% to R5.5 billion (2014: R5.9 billion). Operating profit dropped 37% to R881.4 million. . . Full story | | Revenue for the interim period increased to R125.8 million (2014: R116.5 million), operating profit rose to R33.8 million (2014: R27.5 million),. . . Full story | | Revenue for the interim period rose to R155.1 million (R80.5 million). Gross prfoti grew to R43.7 million (R21.2 million). EBITDA jumped. . . Full story | | Fee and commission income came in higher at R2.8 billion (R2.6 billion), while operating profit was R477 million (R271 million).. . . Full story |
World Markets (Spot Prices)
Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | JSE Overall | 17:00 | 51535.82 | -72.01 | -0.14% | JSE Top 40 | 17:00 | 46295.25 | -34.31 | -0.07% | JSE Gold | 17:00 | 897.53 | 6.19 | 0.69% | JSE Financial | 17:00 | 43609.95 | -205.85 | -0.47% | JSE Industrial | 17:00 | 79324.34 | -194.90 | -0.25% | JSE Indust 25 | 17:00 | 71657.02 | -190.06 | -0.26% | JSE Resource | 17:00 | 26413.43 | 524.38 | 2.03% | DJ Futures | 19:58 | 17814.00 | 100.00 | 0.56% | DJ Ind | 19:58 | 17847.73 | 127.81 | 0.72% | SP 500 | 19:58 | 2095.74 | 15.33 | 0.74% | Nasdaq | 19:58 | 5142.07 | 33.40 | 0.65% | FTSE 100 | 17:47 | 6389.90 | 33.81 | 0.53% | DAX | 19:08 | 11261.24 | -120.99 | -1.06% | CAC40 | 19:08 | 4914.53 | -43.07 | -0.87% | Nikkei | 08:32 | 20012.40 | 264.93 | 1.34% | Shanghai | 09:30 | 3456.31 | 10.91 | 0.32% | Hang-Seng | 10:28 | 22381.35 | 384.93 | 1.75% | All Ords | 07:40 | 5312.60 | 94.40 | 1.81% | NZSE 50 | 07:28 | 6150.68 | 50.53 | 0.83% |
| | Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | Gold $ | 19:59 | 1064.88 | -.18 | -0.02% | Gold R | 19:58 | 15376.34 | 18.98 | 0.12% | Gold R/kg | 19:58 | 494349 | 1182 | 0.24% | Silver $ | 19:59 | 14.0980 | 0.0330 | 0.23% | Platinum $ | 19:59 | 833.30 | 4.00 | 0.48% | Palladium $ | 19:59 | 537.30 | -2.23 | -0.41% | R186 | 17:08 | 8.59 | 0.01 | 0.12% | R204 | 17:09 | 7.74 | -0.00 | -0.06% | R207 | 17:09 | 8.00 | 0.02 | 0.25% | Brent Crude | 19:58 | 44.36 | -0.25 | -0.56% | USD / ZAR | 19:59 | 14.4357 | 0.0109 | 0.08% | GBP / ZAR | 19:55 | 21.7157 | 0.0172 | 0.08% | EUR/ ZAR | 19:55 | 15.3138 | 0.0643 | 0.42% | NZD/ ZAR | 04:59 | 9.5388 | 0.0544 | 0.57% | AUD / ZAR | 19:55 | 10.5625 | 0.1350 | 1.29% | USD / JPY | 19:59 | 122.9170 | -0.2310 | -0.19% | EUR / USD | 19:59 | 1.0615 | 0.0045 | 0.43% | GBP / USD | 19:59 | 1.5073 | 0.0010 | 0.06% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today
Trading Statistics
Date | Adv. | Decl. | Unch. | Actives | Volume | Value | Trades | Orders |
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01/12/2015 | 152 | 181 | 68 | 401 | 350,564,511 | R20,699,539,197 | 257406 | 1625346 | 30/11/2015 | 140 | 205 | 55 | 400 | 523,896,649 | R30,796,747,649 | 266909 | 1600615 | 27/11/2015 | 127 | 226 | 66 | 419 | 324,405,569 | R13,515,261,248 | 186203 | 1581402 | 26/11/2015 | 213 | 130 | 64 | 407 | 744,107,721 | R13,345,973,962 | 179923 | 1396451 | 25/11/2015 | 158 | 189 | 71 | 418 | 293,649,777 | R16,127,014,441 | 216500 | 1644519 |
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Index Summary Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Top 40 | 46,295.25 | -34.31 | -0.07% | Industrial | 79,324.34 | -194.90 | -0.25% | Mid Cap | 65,336.98 | -163.45 | -0.25% | Small Cap | 57,709.53 | -926.86 | -1.58% | Resource 20 | 26,413.43 | 524.38 | 2.03% | Industrial 25 | 71,657.02 | -190.06 | -0.26% | Financial 15 | 16,198.04 | -57.80 | -0.36% | Financial & Ind. 30 | 75,438.01 | -216.63 | -0.29% | All Share | 51,535.82 | -72.01 | -0.14% | Oil & Gas | 8,888.79 | 296.29 | 3.45% | Mining | 16,014.36 | 234.77 | 1.49% | Gold Mining | 897.53 | 6.19 | 0.69% | Platinum Mining | 18.10 | -.68 | -3.62% | GENERAL MINING | 4,600.81 | 100.75 | 2.24% | Oil & Gas Producers | 47,793.38 | 1593.12 | 3.45% | Basic Materials | 17,826.18 | 201.80 | 1.15% | Chemicals | 20,448.93 | 37.33 | 0.18% | Forestry & Paper | 56,242.23 | 713.97 | 1.29% | Industrial Metals | 3,303.81 | -40.67 | -1.22% | Industrials | 43,007.39 | -281.70 | -0.65% | General Industrials | 159.78 | -.54 | -0.34% | Consumer Goods | 78,892.46 | 297.63 | 0.38% | Automobiles & Parts | 5,830.98 | 83.78 | 1.46% | Household Goods | 586.77 | 6 | 1.02% | Health Care | 9,283.78 | -24.28 | -0.26% | Beverages | 298.66 | .48 | 0.16% |
| | Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Food Producers | 8,527.94 | -89.22 | -1.04% | Personal Goods | 1,088.85 | 14.58 | 1.36% | Consumer Services | 17,670.07 | -285.29 | -1.59% | General Retailers | 7,973.80 | -90.77 | -1.13% | Travel & Leisure | 5,856.77 | -8.24 | -0.14% | Media | 460.11 | -9.05 | -1.93% | Support Services | 2,538.78 | -38.18 | -1.48% | Telecommunications | 7,746.07 | 25.39 | 0.33% | Financials | 43,609.95 | -205.85 | -0.47% | Banks | 6,744.75 | -100.77 | -1.47% | Non-life Insurance | 53,851.86 | -61.25 | -0.11% | Life Insurance | 41,818.22 | 59.24 | 0.14% | General Financial | 4,934.21 | -.87 | -0.02% | Technology | 57,035.70 | 1085.83 | 1.94% | SHARIAH TOP40 | 2,877.03 | 28 | 0.97% | FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL | 3,107.16 | 19 | 0.61% | COAL MINING | 6,016.21 | 327 | 5.76% | FTSE JSE Fledgling | 6,365.15 | -51 | -0.80% | FTSE/JSE Alt X | 1,546.51 | -1 | -0.08% | SA LISTED PROPERTY | 644.83 | | -0.84% | CAPPED PROPERTY | 581.62 | | -0.35% | RESOURCE | 14,545.61 | 213 | 1.49% | DIVIDEND PLUS | 185.55 | -0 | -0.06% | FTSE/JSE RAFI 40 | 8,648.44 | 13 | 0.15% | Capped Top 40 | 24,482.43 | -5 | -0.02% | Capped All Share | 26,134.40 | -36 | -0.14% | JSE TABACO | 10,717.75 | -81 | -0.75% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes** Code | Company Name | Status | Updated | MDC | MEDICLINIC INTERNATIONAL | BUY | 30/11/2015 | NPN | NASPERS LIMITED | BUY | 30/11/2015 | CFR | COMPAGNIE FIN RICHEMONT | BUY | 30/11/2015 | S32 | SOUTH32 LIMITED | BUY | 27/11/2015 | NPK | NAMPAK | HOLD | 27/11/2015 |
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Results Expected** Expected | Company Name | Fin. Date | 02/12/2015 | SENTULA | September 2015 (Interim) | 03/12/2015 | JUBILEE | June 2015 (Final) | 04/12/2015 | STELLAR | August 2015 (Final) | 07/12/2015 | STOR-AGE | September 2015 (Interim) | 08/12/2015 | LABAT | August 2015 (Interim) |
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Recent Dividends** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | PRESCIENT | 30/11/15 | 29/01/16 | 08/02/16 | ZAR 0.0285 | AFORBES | 30/11/15 | 31/12/15 | 11/01/16 | ZAR 0.1500 | HUGE | 27/11/15 | 17/12/15 | 28/12/15 | ZAR 0.0400 | SIRIUS | 27/11/15 | 10/12/15 | 20/01/16 | EUR 0.0092 | QUANTUM | 26/11/15 | 05/02/16 | 15/02/16 | ZAR 0.1000 |
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Ex Div** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | BRAIT PREF | 09/11/15 | 27/11/15 | 07/12/15 | ZAR 4.8723 | INVPREFR | 19/11/15 | 27/11/15 | 14/12/15 | ZAR 4.4507 | VODACOM | 09/11/15 | 27/11/15 | 07/12/15 | ZAR 3.9500 | SPAR | 11/11/15 | 27/11/15 | 07/12/15 | ZAR 3.9300 | INVESTEC-P | 19/11/15 | 27/11/15 | 14/12/15 | ZAR 3.9040 |
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Upcoming AGMs** Code | Company Name | Date | Status | FSRPD | FirstRand Ltd. | 01/12/2015 | Confirmed | FSPP | FirstRand Ltd. | 01/12/2015 | Confirmed | BIFR1 | FirstRand Ltd. | 01/12/2015 | Confirmed | FSR | FirstRand Ltd. | 01/12/2015 | Confirmed | FSRPA | FirstRand Ltd. | 01/12/2015 | Confirmed |
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