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 The Sharenet Daily 
Wednesday, 18 November 2015 - 20:00
 
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Major Moves
Index Summary
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Upcoming AGMs
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Seed Weekly - Local Equity Valuations

From time to time we document the approach that we take with respect to our tactical asset allocation of local equities. This is not the only input into our process, but the methodology has proven to be sound, especially when taking a longer term view.

Essentially, the thesis is one that says the more expensive the price paid for a particular share or market, the lower the expected return from that investment. Anecdotally, most investors can appreciate the advantage of buying into a good business at a cheaper valuation, in order to maximise the investment upside.

Investment risk then is less about the daily volatility of share prices and more about the price paid relative to the underlying or intrinsic value of the business.

At the same time – and this is what we have being seeing over the last few years – what starts off at expensive levels, continues to be pushed up to even more expensive levels as investors become more and more optimistic about the future outcome and are therefore willing to pay up. It is however at exactly the time of maximum investor optimism that risk (i.e. investment risk) is at its maximum level.

Seed has developed a model where, on a monthly basis, we measure the market valuations in order to try and “predict” the future market returns. The chart below reflects rolling 5 year compounded returns superimposed on top of the model’s return expectations.

The model is a multi-factor one that also learns from history and we therefore expect it to become more accurate over time. At the market bottom in February 2009, the model predicted a return of approximately 28% pa over the next five years. History has shown that, at that time when investors were extremely nervous, this proved to be an excellent entry point. The 5 year compounded return from the ALSI from that point was actually 24% pa.

Since then, the expected return has oscillated between 10% and up to 22% in September 2011. As the market has become more and more expensive, and in fact is now at one of the most expensive levels since we started measuring, so the expected compounded return from local equities over the next 5 years has fallen to 8.5% pa.

Because all forecasting models are fallible, we do not rely 100% on the outcome. However, as can be seen from the chart above, there is a high correlation between its expected return and the subsequent five year return and given the very low total return expectations at this time, means that we remain cautious with respect to the level of allocation to local equities.

Sincerely,

Ian de Lange

Tel +27 21 914 4966
Fax +27 21 914 4912
Email info@seedinvestments.co.za

Seed is hiring: Visit the Seed Analytics LinkedIn profile to view vacancies.

www.seedinvestments.co.za

Wed, 18 Nov 2015
Top News
[IMAGE]
Barclays Africa will keep lending taps open for South African farmers despite the worst drought in decades as growers can use high crop prices to offset lower output, the head of the lender's agribusiness said on Wednesday.  Full story

[IMAGE]
South Africa's power utility Eskom will on Monday sign a 150 million euro credit facility deal with the French development agency to help it build three new power stations, its spokesman said on Wednesday.  Full story
A woman suicide bomber blew herself up and another militant died on Wednesday in a police raid that sources said had foiled a jihadi plan to hit Paris's business district, La Defense, days after attacks that killed 129 across the French capital.  Full story
Two Air France flights bound for Paris from the United States were diverted for several hours on Tuesday following anonymous bomb threats, and more than 700 passengers and crew were safely taken off the planes, officials said.  Full story
Islamic State's official magazine carried a photo on Wednesday of what it said was the improvised bomb that brought down the Russian airliner over Egypt's Sinai Peninsula last month, killing all 224 people on board.  Full story
 
SA Business
South Africa's retail sales grew below expectations by 2.7 percent year-on-year in September after expanding by a revised 4.0 percent in August, the government's statistics agency said on Wednesday.. . .  Full story
South Africa's headline consumer inflation ticked up to 4.7 percent year-on-year in October compared with 4.6 percent in September, data from Statistics South Africa showed on Wednesday.. . .  Full story
South Africa's rand fell against the dollar on Wednesday amid investor uncertainty over whether the central bank will raise interest rates this week.. . .  Full story

South Africa's biggest listed clothes retailer Mr Price Ltd reported a 16.6 percent rise in half-year profit as cash-strapped consumers flocked to its no-frills stores.. . .  Full story
Tsogo Sun, Africa's biggest hotel and gambling firm, will sell 10 hotel properties to Hospitality Property Fund in exchange for shares, the two companies said on Wednesday.. . .  Full story
Company News
In line with the revised strategy of transforming PPC into a world-class provider of materials and solutions, our reporting structures at. . .  Full story
Shareholders are referred to the announcement published on SENS on 13 November 2015 disclosing a trade in securities by Mr Johannes. . .  Full story
Note that the effect of the adoption of IFRS 9: Financial Instruments ű classification and measurement (˘IFRS 9÷) has already been. . .  Full story
The table that follows provides guidance for the expected increases in the group's Basic earnings, Basic EPS, Headline earnings and HEPS. . .  Full story

GrowthpointĂs AGM was held on 17 November 2015. All resolutions proposed at the AGM were decided on a poll. The resolutions. . .  Full story
In accordance with Pillar 3 of the Basel Accord, Regulation 43(1)(e) of the Regulations relating to Banks requires the group to. . .  Full story
As a courtesy, PPC wishes to inform stakeholders that there will be a webcast of its 2015 final results presentation at. . .  Full story
Notice is hereby given in accordance with section 45(5) of the Companies Act, that pursuant to the authority granted to the. . .  Full story
Company Results
Revenue for the interim period increased to R455.7 million (2014: R344.9 million). Operating profit rose to R319.8 million (2014: R231.6 million),. . .  Full story
Investment gains climbed to EUR1.4 billion (EUR82 million). Profit for the period soared to EUR1.3 billion (2014: EUR99 million). Furthermore headline. . .  Full story
Revenue for the interim period lowered to R847.6 million (R937.5 million). Operating profit before finance costs rose to R46.6 million (R43.2. . .  Full story
Revenue increased to R9.2 billion (R9.0 billion). Gross profit came in at R2.8 billion (R2.8 billion). Operating profit decreased slightly. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0051654.54-327.11-0.63%
JSE Top 4017:0046464.28-286.82-0.61%
JSE Gold17:00836.01-22.77-2.65%
JSE Financial17:0043400.88-247.83-0.57%
JSE Industrial17:0079230.03-670.88-0.84%
JSE Indust 2517:0071542.37-636.77-0.88%
JSE Resource17:0028156.91211.390.76%
DJ Futures19:4217596.00140.000.80%
DJ Ind19:5817617.70128.200.73%
SP 50019:582065.2414.800.72%
Nasdaq19:585028.9442.920.86%
FTSE 10017:596270.711.950.03%
DAX19:0810959.95-11.09-0.10%
CAC4019:084906.72-30.59-0.62%
Nikkei09:1819649.1818.550.09%
Shanghai09:283568.47-36.33-1.01%
Hang-Seng10:2822188.26-75.99-0.34%
All Ords07:355189.1014.800.29%
NZSE 5007:085979.8112.210.20%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold $19:591068.64-2.37-0.22%
Gold R19:5815169.30-113.51-0.74%
Gold R/kg19:58487693-8164-1.65%
Silver $19:5914.0830-.1100-0.78%
Platinum $19:59845.54-6.64-0.78%
Palladium $19:59531.15-8.35-1.55%
R18617:118.51-.03-0.35%
R20417:047.64-.02-0.26%
R20717:047.90-.02-0.32%
Brent Crude16:4844.26.681.56%
USD / ZAR19:5914.1905-0.0808-0.57%
GBP / ZAR19:5521.5665-0.1249-0.58%
EUR/ ZAR19:5515.1015-0.0925-0.61%
NZD/ ZAR11:029.2298-0.0153-0.17%
AUD / ZAR19:5510.0516-0.0979-0.96%
USD / JPY19:59123.49000.07300.06%
EUR / USD19:591.0639-0.0003-0.03%
GBP / USD19:591.5213-0.0003-0.02%

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The JSE Today

Trading Statistics
DateAdv.Decl.Unch.ActivesVolumeValueTradesOrders
18/11/201510922078407272,457,171R15,425,913,7122203611745514
17/11/201519215757406316,901,138R18,710,606,0142530231736900
16/11/201518915957405263,122,799R16,469,685,9522147011809722
13/11/201510726660433318,549,996R22,500,205,1983056522167171
12/11/20159225942393288,317,671R18,735,246,0252620391933014
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 KUMBAIO  45993568.39.%1240566
2 AFRIMAT  27891676.37.%108025
3 PPC  1602775.05.%6096509
4 GLENCORE  2024964.98.%4105801
5 RBPLAT  24551134.82.%1108311
6 GRANPRADE  480204.35.%818465
7 CAPPROP  1945703.73.%6126301
8 QUANTUMF  335113.40.%6400
9 WOOLIES  103503363.36.%8908015
10 ANGLO  97152973.15.%3399327
11 EQSTRA  23073.14.%626572
12 FAIRVEST  17053.03.%100000
13 CAT  1700503.03.%8982
14 KAP  676182.74.%2053311
15 ASTRAPAK  380102.70.%12875
16 CAPITAL  11432.70.%316489
17 ANCHOR  1720402.38.%302831
18 GROUP-5  2119492.37.%70741
19 LONMIN  22552.27.%3085221
20 SANTOVA  37082.21.%69004

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 CENRAND  120-75-38.46.%788
2 ADVTECH-N  135-17-11.18.%444358
3 AMECOR  265-29-9.86.%38000
4 COMAIR  232-23-9.02.%293008
5 WESCOAL  105-8-7.08.%270178
6 TRNSHEX  207-13-5.91.%51827
7 ARCMITTAL  490-30-5.77.%2602515
8 ALTRON-P  550-33-5.66.%2582
9 PETMIN  118-7-5.60.%521144
10 TRUSTCO  406-24-5.58.%2186505
11 HUGE  425-25-5.56.%7120
12 MRPRICE  20219-1182-5.52.%2148282
13 CSG  160-9-5.33.%120000
14 TELKOM  6146-341-5.26.%1062345
15 HULAMIN  600-33-5.21.%102631
16 MMG  1400-76-5.15.%45976
17 SYGNIA  1516-79-4.95.%18542
18 LEWIS  5500-283-4.89.%830726
19 HCI  12200-592-4.63.%13536
20 FINBOND  420-20-4.55.%14783

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 CAPPROP  19451950703.73.%6126301
2 ANCHOR  17201720402.38.%302831
3 WINHOLD  10110922.02.%219381
4 CURRO  47004918801.73.%310532
5 FORTRESSB  42034350140.33.%2000930
6 OCEANA  1149412027290.25.%22397
7 HUGE  425460-25-5.56.%7120

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 COMAIR  232230-23-9.02.%293008
2 WESCOAL  105105-8-7.08.%270178
3 ALTRON-P  550550-33-5.66.%2582
4 MMG  14001400-76-5.15.%45976
5 LEWIS  55005443-283-4.89.%830726
6 HCI  1220011700-592-4.63.%13536
7 TONGAAT  100009540-400-3.85.%193037
8 SOUTH32  12451225-48-3.71.%378162
9 NORTHAM  24022306-51-2.08.%674121
10 GFIELDS  31003000-60-1.90.%2916790
11 CHOPPIES  499495-7-1.38.%219752
12 ADCORP  22512237-27-1.19.%546727
13 IMPLATS  31233065-33-1.05.%3107549
14 GROWPNT  23962360-24-0.99.%12022702
15 BELL  698698-1-0.14.%3625
16 DELPROP  754725-1-0.13.%1653853
17 TEX  914900-1-0.11.%93421
18 ARM   42453920250.59.%533144
19 BILLITON  19200185711510.79.%3798410
20 ANGLOPLAT  18500180042241.23.%594410

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Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4046,464.28-286.82-0.61%
Industrial79,230.03-670.88-0.84%
Mid Cap65,585.50-499.70-0.76%
Small Cap55,112.52-304.73-0.55%
Resource 2028,156.91211.390.76%
Industrial 2571,542.37-636.77-0.88%
Financial 1516,007.48-116.94-0.73%
Financial & Ind. 3075,043.04-600.10-0.79%
All Share51,654.54-327.11-0.63%
Oil & Gas 8,550.17.000.00%
Mining 16,743.26120.660.73%
Gold Mining836.01-22.77-2.65%
Platinum Mining14.42-.05-0.35%
GENERAL MINING5,041.1066.001.33%
Oil & Gas Producers 45,972.68.000.00%
Basic Materials 18,106.8836.910.20%
Chemicals 20,279.83-175.00-0.86%
Forestry & Paper 53,343.87-164.36-0.31%
Industrial Metals 3,290.3857.001.76%
Industrials 43,661.69-159.36-0.36%
General Industrials 161.93-.95-0.58%
Consumer Goods 77,884.32-732.91-0.93%
Automobiles & Parts 6,123.1043.030.71%
Household Goods567.90-10-1.79%
Health Care 9,575.88-113.94-1.18%
Beverages 294.20-1.43-0.48%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 8,748.96-175.90-1.97%
Personal Goods 1,080.56-14.58-1.33%
Consumer Services 18,126.30-73.41-0.40%
General Retailers 8,212.51-28.84-0.35%
Travel & Leisure 5,779.5225.430.44%
Media 473.47-1.46-0.31%
Support Services 2,611.67-33.13-1.25%
Telecommunications 7,427.14-209.91-2.75%
Financials 43,400.88-247.83-0.57%
Banks 7,006.43-32.86-0.47%
Non-life Insurance 53,788.05-306.27-0.57%
Life Insurance 40,267.97-305.73-0.75%
General Financial 4,725.76-30.68-0.65%
Technology 55,907.7819.710.04%
SHARIAH TOP40 2,915.14-16-0.54%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,118.84-20-0.65%
COAL MINING6,131.25370.60%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 6,394.79-40-0.62%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,526.2100.02%
SA LISTED PROPERTY 651.56-0.17%
CAPPED PROPERTY 582.62-0.24%
RESOURCE 15,206.811100.73%
DIVIDEND PLUS186.26-2-1.21%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 408,652.59-51-0.58%
Capped Top 4024,561.84-154-0.62%
Capped All Share26,193.74-166-0.63%
JSE TABACO 10,490.94-39-0.37%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
ARIAFRICAN RAINBOW MINERALSBUY17/11/2015
AGLANGLO AMERICAN PLCHOLD17/11/2015
EXXEXXARO RESOURCES LIMITEDHOLD17/11/2015
TFGTHE FOSCHINI GROUP LTDBUY17/11/2015
BILBHP BILLITON PLCHOLD17/11/2015
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
19/11/2015CAFCASeptember 2015 (Final)
19/11/2015DENEBSeptember 2015 (Interim)
19/11/2015ENXGROUPAugust 2015 (Final)
19/11/2015GFIELDSSeptember 2015 (Q)
19/11/2015GFIELDSPSeptember 2015 (Q)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
ARGENT17/11/1516/03/1629/03/16ZAR 0.0900
ACCPROP17/11/1504/12/1514/12/15ZAR 0.2662
TONGAAT16/11/1522/01/1604/02/16ZAR 1.7000
ASTRAL16/11/1515/01/1625/01/16ZAR 5.7500
CARTRACK16/11/1504/12/1514/12/15ZAR 0.2000
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
CAXTON6%CPP03/09/1513/11/1523/11/15ZAR 5.3000
IVT PREF30/10/1513/11/1523/11/15ZAR 3.7146
CAXTON03/09/1513/11/1523/11/15ZAR 0.6500
OASIS14/10/1513/11/1523/11/15ZAR 0.6057
DELPROP26/10/1513/11/1523/11/15ZAR 0.4289

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
MNYMoneyWeb Holdings Ltd.18/11/2015Confirmed
AERAmalgamated Electronic Corporation Ltd.19/11/2015Confirmed
AIPAdcock Ingram Holdings Ltd.19/11/2015Confirmed
ADEAdcock Ingram Holdings Ltd.19/11/2015Confirmed
RMHRMB Holdings Ltd.20/11/2015Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
DateTimeHeadline
18/11/201517:45JSE LIMITED - Index Change Advice: 20151123 Capital Property Fund Merger with Fo...
18/11/201517:45NEW EUROPE PROPERTY INVESTMENTS PLC - Dealings in Securities by an Associate Of ...
18/11/201517:07NVEST FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED - Trading statements
18/11/201517:00LODESTONE REIT LIMITED - Submission of resolutions to Lodestone shareholders in ...
18/11/201516:28FIRSTRAND BANK LIMITED - FRC181_Partial Capital Redemption
18/11/201516:20ARGENT INDUSTRIAL LIMITED - Dealing in Securities by a Director and Associate of...
18/11/201516:10PPC LIMITED - Group Structure and Executive Realignment
18/11/201516:05THE BIDVEST GROUP LIMITED - Directors' dealings in securities
18/11/201516:04INGUZA INVESTMENTS (RF) LIMITED - INGR06-Investor report
18/11/201516:00ZCI LIMITED - Updated Cautionary Announcement
18/11/201515:53TRUSTCO GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED - Clarification regarding alternate director's tr...
18/11/201515:52NEWFUNDS COLLECTIVE INVEST SCHEME - Additional Listing for NewFunds ILBI Exchang...
18/11/201515:44MONEYWEB HOLDINGS LIMITED - Results of Annual General Meeting ("AGM")
18/11/201515:40BK ONE LIMITED - Renewal of cautionary announcement
18/11/201515:40OLD MUTUAL PLC - Form 8.3 - Public Opening Position Disclosure
18/11/201515:35SAPPI LIMITED - Dealings In Securities By Directors Of Listed Companies
18/11/201515:23BRIMSTONE INVESTMENT CORPORATION LD - Announcement regarding the acquisition of ...
18/11/201515:05SYNERGY INCOME FUND LIMITED - TRP121: Notification of an acquisition of a benefi...
18/11/201515:00ILIAD AFRICA LIMITED - Disposal of Securities
18/11/201514:55MR PRICE GROUP LIMITED - Unaudited group results and interim cash dividend decla...
18/11/201514:25ANGLO AMERICAN PLC - Transactions in shares by Persons Discharging Managerial Re...
18/11/201514:00SABMILLER PLC - Block Listings of Ordinary Shares
18/11/201513:52SYNTHESIS FUNDING LIMITED - Investor report as at 30 September 2015 - SY1260 - S...
18/11/201513:35TRANSACTION CAPITAL LIMITED - Ancillary statement to Transaction Capital's tradi...
18/11/201513:30TRANSACTION CAPITAL LIMITED - Trading statement in respect of the year ended 30 ...
18/11/201513:20OLD MUTUAL PLC - Form 8.3 - Public Opening Position Disclosure
18/11/201513:14INVESTEC BANK LIMITED - Breached Barrier - MTNIHM
18/11/201512:30TISO BLACKSTAR GROUP SE - Transaction in own shares
18/11/201512:20ADCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED - Results Of Meeting Of Holders Of Group 1 Notes Issued ...
18/11/201512:10SOUTH32 LIMITED - 2015 Annual General Meeting Voting Results
18/11/201512:00GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES LIMITED - Annual General Meeting of Growthpoint Propertie...
18/11/201511:15THE THEKWINI WAREHOUSING CONDUIT (RF) LIMITED - Redemption of TWC116 Notes
18/11/201511:15SENTULA MINING LIMITED - Notification in terms of Section 122(3) of the Companie...
18/11/201511:00TRANS - CALEDON TUNNEL AUTHORITY - Release of annual financial statements
18/11/201511:00THE THEKWINI FUND 13 (RF) LIMITED - Partial Capital Redemption Announcement - TH...
18/11/201510:50ASTRAPAK LIMITED - Disclosure of significant holdings in Astrapak Limited ordina...
18/11/201510:30GOLIATH GOLD MINING LIMITED - Fulfilment of Outstanding Condition Precedent and ...
18/11/201510:12SUPER GROUP LIMITED - Dealing in securities by a director of major subsidiaries
18/11/201510:00ROYAL BAFOKENG PLATINUM LIMITED - Dealing in Securities by an Executive Director
18/11/201510:00SABMILLER PLC - Rule 2.10 announcement
18/11/201509:57FIRSTRAND BANK LIMITED - FRS103 - Partial Capital Repurchase
18/11/201509:52INDWA INVESTMENTS LIMITED - INA549-Full Capital Redemption
18/11/201509:30PPC LIMITED - Presentation of 2015 Final Financial Results
18/11/201509:18SOUTH32 LIMITED - 2015 AGM presentation
18/11/201509:15SOUTH32 LIMITED - 2015 AGM speeches
18/11/201509:12FIRSTRAND LIMITED - Pillar 3 quarterly disclosures as at 30 September 2015
18/11/201509:10SOUTH32 LIMITED - Samancor Manganese Joint Venture Announces Extended Closure Of...
18/11/201509:00HOSPITALITY PROPERTY FUND LIMITED - Hospitality/Tsogo - Update in respect of the...
18/11/201508:24NET 1 UEPS TECHNOLOGIES INC - Zazoo's VCPAY wins at the 2015 Apps Africa Innovat...
18/11/201507:23ARROWHEAD PROPERTIES LIMITED - Abridged Consolidated Audited Results For The Yea...
18/11/201507:20PPC LIMITED - Audited preliminary summarised group results for the year ended 30...
18/11/201507:07CSG HOLDINGS LIMITED - Notice in terms of section 45 of the Companies Act
18/11/201507:06CSG HOLDINGS LIMITED - Results of AGM

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