Having trouble reading this email? View in your web browser
 The Sharenet Daily 
Tuesday, 04 September 2012 - 20:00
Top News
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)

Does GDP Drive Stock Market Returns

A very common investor error is a fundamental belief that a strong and growing economy is required to drive a strong performance from that country’s stock market. GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product and is an economic measurement of the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period, typically a year.

The premise of a direct link between economic growth and market performance, although proven incorrect as has been widely demonstrated, has a logic, which goes something like this:
• A growing economy is by definition an aggregate of a population that is seeing an improvement in their real wealth and increased output from that country’s companies.
• If companies are selling and producing more they should be generating a higher profitability.
• Higher profitability translates into a good investment.

The logic however starts to break down with the assumption that a weak overall GDP automatically means all companies are not performing strongly. Over longer and even shorter periods of time, the empirical evidence indicates that there is no relationship between GDP and market returns. The charts below plots various country’s GDP and that market’s real return over a 30 year period with no positive relationship, either for developing or emerging markets.

Source: GMO, MSCI, S&P, Datastream

Source: GMO, MSCI, S&P, Datastream

In many cases investors tend to want to wait for “more positive economic news”, “less uncertainty”, or “the European political risk to settle down”, before investing. However this is rarely, if ever, possible and indeed steady price moves up don’t necessarily require positive news or strong GDP growth as reflected above.

Current news flow, which by definition tends to be negative, is already reflected in share prices and all things being equal will not push prices further down. But because prices are the discounted value of future returns, they are forward looking. That is why after a particular negative economic event as prices are pushed down sharply, it is generally a good time to invest. I.e. the news may continue to be negative for a while, but prices having fully absorbed the bad news start to anticipate an improvement.

A cursory look at the year to date will reflect a global economy that is still under plenty pressure. While into 2012 the IMF raised their growth expectations, in July these were slightly lowered to a global growth of 3.5% in 2012 and 3.9% in 2013. At the same time the global equity market as measured by the MSCI All Countries World (USD) is up 7.55% for the year to end of August 2012. This is very reasonable in a world of ultra-low interest rates and against a backdrop of weak GDP.

Warm regards,

Ian de Lange

021 914 4966

Tue, 04 Sep 2012
Top News
Revenue soared 87% to R80.4 billion (R43 billion). Operating profit before capital items jumped by 48% to R8 billion (R5.4 billion). EBITDA improved 48% R7.9 billion (R5.4 billion). Net attributable profit was up 10% to R5.7 billion (R5.1 billion). In addition, headline earnings per ordinary  Full story

Revenue increased to R11 billion (R8.9 billion) and earnings before interest, dividend income, associate earnings and taxation rose to R1.2 billion (R872 million). Net attributable profit of R574 million (R272 million) was recorded. In addition, headline earnings per share jumped to 24.2cps  Full story
Global stocks fell on Tuesday as data showed U.S. manufacturing shrank at the sharpest clip in more than three years last month, adding. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks edged lower on Tuesday, led by weakness in shares most sensitive to the health of the economy after a report showed. . .  Full story
European shares fell on Tuesday after weak U.S. manufacturing data weighed on sentiment and added to market uncertainty in the run up to. . .  Full story
Britain's top share index fell on Tuesday reflecting investor uncertainty over whether this week's key European Central Bank (ECB) meeting will deliver the. . .  Full story

Gold steadied around its highest level in nearly six months on Tuesday, boosted by the prospect of further liquidity injections from the U.S.. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks edged lower on Tuesday after data showed U.S. manufacturing shrank at its sharpest clip in more than three years in August. . .  Full story
Wall Street opened flat on Tuesday as investors returned after a long weekend, with focus on U.S. manufacturing data and an upcoming meeting. . .  Full story
European shares fell on Tuesday as investors turned cautious in the run-up to a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting this week, with the. . .  Full story

South African furniture retailer Steinhoff International reported a 32 percent rise in full-year profit on Tuesday, as European customers continued to. . .  Full story
FirstRand Ltd, South Africa's second-largest bank, said on Tuesday its full-year earnings likely rose by as much as 27 percent, sending. . .  Full story
South Africa's total new vehicle sales rose by 9.4 percent year-on-year to 56,253 cars in August, with rental companies leading demand,. . .  Full story
The rand firmed for the second day against the dollar on Tuesday, bouncing from major support around 8.50 to the dollar,. . .  Full story
Company News
The following Supplementary Offering Circular has been approved by the UK Listing Authority and is available for viewing: Supplementary Offering Circular dated. . .  Full story
Fiuranium advised shareholders that their registered address will change to Eversheds, 22 Fredman Drive, Sandton, 2196, Attention: Warren Drue and Danielle. . .  Full story
Notice is given that the directors have declared a final gross cash dividend of 414.73973 cents (352.52877 cents net of dividend. . .  Full story
Shareholders were advised that the board is reasonably certain that the earnings per share and headline earnings per share for the. . .  Full story

Power Technologies (Pty) Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of Altron, has appointed Mr Sean Hemphill as its new CFO with effect from 1 September 2012. Hemphill succeeds Neil Kayton, who was. . .  Full story
Pioneer provides this trading update based on the results for the eleven months to 31 August 2012, ahead of the Group's closed period from 15 September 2012 to the publication of. . .  Full story
As previously communicated to shareholders, FirstRand considers diluted normalised earnings per share from continuing operations to most accurately represent operational performance and this is expected for the twelve months to June. . .  Full story
Company Results
Revenue grew by 21.2% from R14.8 billion to R17.9 billion for the twelve months ended 30 June 2012. Operating profit decreased. . .  Full story
Revenue increased to R13.8 billion (R11.2 billion). Gross profit surged to R5.6 billion (R4.5 billion). Net attributable profit rose to R4. . .  Full story
The figures for 31 March 2011 are for 18 months, therefore they are not directly comparable to the figures for the. . .  Full story
CapevinH's maiden full-year interim results as a listed company showed a net attributable profit of R138.6 million and headline earnings per. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0035161.01-323.00-0.91%
JSE Top 4017:0030884.69-342.00-1.10%
JSE Gold17:002211.34-38.00-1.72%
JSE Financial17:0027139.77-67.00-0.25%
JSE Industrial17:0041995.17-305.00-0.72%
JSE Indust 2517:0035891.38-328.00-0.91%
JSE Resource17:0045140.09-814.00-1.77%
DJ Futures19:4213000.00-79.00-0.60%
DJ Ind19:5813006.82-84.02-0.64%
SP 50019:581400.09-6.49-0.46%
FTSE 10017:355672.01-86.40-1.50%
All Ords08:434325.60-26.00-0.60%
NZSE 5007:483676.026.990.19%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold $19:591694.502.400.14%
Gold R19:5814270.8397.630.69%
Gold R/kg19:58458707131312.95%
Silver $19:5932.2740.20400.64%
Platinum $19:591564.0015.000.97%
Palladium $19:59638.009.701.54%
Brent Crude19:58114.33.100.09%
Rand / Dollar19:598.42430.04820.58%
Rand / Pound19:5513.33230.05800.44%
Rand / Euro19:5510.57570.03140.30%
Rand / NZD19:586.68420.00100.01%
Rand / AUD19:558.60850.02320.27%
Yen / Dollar19:5978.38000.09700.12%
Euro / Dollar19:550.79580.00160.20%
Dollar / Euro19:591.2560-0.0027-0.21%
Pound / Dollar19:550.62970.00040.06%

Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today

Trading Statistics
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 GBGOLD  210157.69.%42120
2 ALTRON-P  22991084.93.%48904
3 ARGENT  690304.55.%7426
4 CROOKES  50002004.17.%11000
5 CLICKS  62102404.02.%1189601
6 ILIAD  570203.64.%10217
7 TRENCOR  54001703.25.%10562
8 POYNTING  13243.13.%7910
9 PALLINGHT  20862.97.%38425
10 WBHO  142004002.90.%180274
11 SENTULA  19052.70.%170257
12 SPURCORP  1925502.67.%34068
13 CIL  1330302.31.%15773
14 ARM   147003002.08.%800910
15 NUWORLD  1735352.06.%2529
16 HOLDSPORT  4942921.90.%59291
17 AVUSA  2375431.84.%29176
18 NETCARE  1815321.79.%5376446
19 ILLOVO  3040531.77.%116711
20 RMIH  1957341.77.%580582

Click here for more Major Moves...
Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 REDEFINTL  535-62-10.39.%134876
2 ATLATSA  150-14-8.54.%20100
3 CAPEVINH  550-40-6.78.%2817415
4 ALTECH  4212-287-6.38.%95486
5 EASTPLATS  157-10-5.99.%16570
6 SASFIN  2820-129-4.37.%600
7 HULAMIN  340-15-4.23.%163588
8 CIPLAMED  689-27-3.77.%1454045
9 HOSP-B  290-11-3.65.%51783
10 BAUBA  135-5-3.57.%8322
11 FAIRVEST  111-4-3.48.%9830
12 CADIZ  170-6-3.41.%56325
13 TELKOM  1837-64-3.37.%666309
14 MVELAGRP  318-11-3.34.%2436498
15 ANGGOLD  26147-781-2.90.%785349
16 MRHLD  2175-64-2.86.%1336230
17 IMPLATS  12640-360-2.77.%1612666
18 COAL  246-7-2.77.%697641
19 AFGRI  535-15-2.73.%145050
20 LONMIN  7538-205-2.65.%297284

Click here for more Major Moves...

New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 CLICKS  621062922404.02.%1189601
2 TRENCOR  540054001703.25.%10562
3 WBHO  14200142004002.90.%180274
4 SPURCORP  19251925502.67.%34068
5 HOLDSPORT  49425000921.90.%59291
6 NETCARE  18151818321.79.%5376446
7 NEPI  47154750651.40.%62074
8 WOOLIES  61406177711.17.%1928923
9 SPAR  12650127841170.93.%667359
10 HYPROP  74507499160.22.%841701
11 GRANPRADE  3103320.28284
12 HOWDEN  270028500.636
13 RICHEMONT  51815300-45-0.86.%5261774
14 REDEFINE  951982-24-2.46.%3134352
15 GROWPNT  26902776-68-2.47.%3290330

Click here for more Major Moves...
New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 ALTECH  42124073-287-6.38.%95486
2 HULAMIN  340335-15-4.23.%163588
3 COAL  246241-7-2.77.%697641
4 EHSV  19001900-50-2.56.%6300
5 PNR-FOODS  51505025-108-2.05.%76248
6 ANGLO  2331123259-352-1.49.%4616204
7 EXXARO  1480014722-1-0.01.%1234612

Click here for more Major Moves...

Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4030,884.00-342.00-1.10%
Mid Cap51,606.00-3.00-0.01%
Small Cap37,964.00-56.00-0.15%
Resource 2045,140.00-814.00-1.77%
Industrial 2535,891.00-328.00-0.91%
Financial 1510,088.00-26.00-0.26%
Financial & Ind. 3039,211.00-304.00-0.77%
All Share35,161.00-323.00-0.91%
Oil & Gas 27,507.00-427.00-1.53%
Mining 28,599.00-509.00-1.75%
Gold Mining2,211.00-38.00-1.72%
Platinum Mining45.00.00-0.43%
GENERAL MINING7,396.00-127.00-1.70%
Oil & Gas Producers 14,790.00-229.00-1.53%
Basic Materials 24,554.00-398.00-1.60%
Chemicals 15,515.0076.000.50%
Forestry & Paper 13,834.00-87.00-0.63%
Industrial Metals 25,488.0037.000.15%
Industrials 35,229.0036.000.10%
General Industrials
Consumer Goods 36,521.00-450.00-1.22%
Automobiles & Parts 6,600.00-124.00-1.85%
Household Goods172.00-1-1.03%
Health Care 48,817.0044.000.09%
Beverages 126.00-1.00-1.14%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 64,649.00-278.00-0.43%
Personal Goods 517.00-3.00-0.68%
Consumer Services 75,071.00-57.00-0.08%
General Retailers 63,974.00307.000.48%
Travel & Leisure 4,266.0034.000.82%
Media 105.00.00-0.03%
Support Services 2,116.00-5.00-0.25%
Telecommunications 75,115.00-1264.00-1.66%
Financials 27,139.00-67.00-0.25%
Banks 48,863.0046.000.10%
Non-life Insurance 44,763.00100.000.22%
Life Insurance 22,380.00-19.00-0.09%
General Financial 2,434.00-4.00-0.20%
Technology 31,382.00-220.00-0.70%
SHARIAH TOP40 2,973.00-41-1.39%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,106.00-38-1.21%
COAL MINING19,048.00-16-0.09%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 5,562.00230.43%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,047.00-3-0.31%
CAPPED PROPERTY 403.00-1.01%
RESOURCE 24,887.00-434-1.71%
DIVIDEND PLUS196.0000.05%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 407,162.00-74-1.03%
Capped Top 4016,320.00-177-1.07%
Capped All Share17,789.00-162-0.91%
JSE TABACO 5,563.00-122-2.15%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
05/09/20121TIMEJune 2012 (Interim)
05/09/2012A-V-IJune 2012 (Final)
05/09/2012A-V-I-PJune 2012 (Final)
05/09/2012AFGRIJune 2012 (Final)
05/09/2012AVENGJune 2012 (Final)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
DSY B PREF04/09/201214/09/201225/09/2012R 4.1474
STEINHOFF04/09/201223/11/201203/12/2012R 0.8000
SHFINV-PREF04/09/201219/10/201229/10/2012R 3.7000
KAP04/09/201228/09/201208/10/2012R 0.0600
WBHO03/09/201212/10/201222/10/2012R 2.4200
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
ABSABANK-P27/07/201231/08/201210/09/2012R 31.3470
STANBANK-P16/08/201231/08/201210/09/2012R 3.4555
NEDBANK01/08/201231/08/201210/09/2012R 3.4000
ABSA27/07/201231/08/201210/09/2012R 3.1500
TRUWTHS15/08/201231/08/201210/09/2012R 1.5700

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
DTCDatatec Ltd.06/09/2012Confirmed
RACPRECM - Calibre Ltd.07/09/2012Confirmed
SSKStefanutti Stocks Holdings Ltd.07/09/2012Confirmed
RACCRECM - Calibre Ltd.07/09/2012Confirmed
AFPAlexander Forbes Preference Share Invest...07/09/2012Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
04/09/201217:40IMITED - Update on the disposal of the Real Juice Co. Holdings Proprietary Limit...
04/09/201217:32ANGLO AMERICAN PLC - Publication of Supplementary Offering Circular
04/09/201217:02WOOLWORTHS HOLDINGS LIMITED - Dealing in Securities by Directors
04/09/201217:00GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES LIMITED - Director's associate dealing in linked units
04/09/201216:45O RESOURCES LIMITED - Dealing by an associate of The Group Company Secretary of ...
04/09/201216:43CITY LODGE HOTELS LIMITED - Director's dealings in securities
04/09/201216:41NEDBANK LIMITED - Dividend Distribution
04/09/201216:40NEDBANK LIMITED - Dividend distibution
04/09/201216:28BHP BILLITON PLC - BHP Billiton Plc - Barclays Capital CEO Energy and Power Conf...
04/09/201216:27FIRST URANIUM CORPORATION - Change of registered address
04/09/201216:23N PLC - Application for block listing
04/09/201216:21DISCOVERY HOLDINGS LIMITED - B Preference Share Dividend Declaration
04/09/201216:05NY GOLD MINING COMPANY LIMITED - Dealings in securities by directors
04/09/201216:04DIPULA INCOME FUND LTD - Dealings in securities
04/09/201216:00M CUBED HOLDINGS LIMITED - Renewal of cautionary announcement
04/09/201215:17THE BIDVEST GROUP LIMITED - Director dealing in securities
04/09/201215:15PREMIUM PROPERTIES LIMITED - Changes to the boards of directors
04/09/201214:45JSE LIMITED - De-listing of Financial Instrument Announcement - CLN178?
04/09/201214:00STEINHOFF INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LD - Audited results for the year ended 30 June...
04/09/201213:27INVESTEC BANK LIMITED - Dividend_ NPNIHA
04/09/201213:25INVESTEC BANK LIMITED - Dividend- NPNIDE
04/09/201213:10ZAPTRONIX LIMITED - Directors dealings in securities
04/09/201213:00LLER PLC - Notification of transactions of directors, persons discharging manage...
04/09/201212:05N PLC - Total Voting Rights and Capital as at 31 August 2012
04/09/201212:04COMPU-CLEARING OUTSOURCING LIMITED - Trading Statement
04/09/201212:04PEREGRINE HOLDINGS LIMITED - Results of General Meeting: Proposed Restructuring ...
04/09/201212:00Transnet SOC Limited - TRANSNET COMMERCIAL PAPER TSP129 TAP
04/09/201212:00NAMPAK LIMITED - Acquisition of the remaining 50% shareholdings in Elopak South ...
04/09/201211:30ST BUSINESS GROUP LIMITED - Directors dealings in BEECO shares
04/09/201211:01Stanlib Collective Investments Ltd - Distribution Announcement - Salient Dates
04/09/201211:00STANLIB COLLECTIVE INVESTMENTS LTD - Distribution announcement - Salient dates
04/09/201210:54RMB HOLDINGS LIMITED - Trading Statement: Year Ended 30 June 2012
04/09/201210:43ALLIED ELECTRONICS CORPORATION LTD - Powertech - Press Release
04/09/201210:42NTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED - Audited Results for the year ended 30 June 2012
04/09/201210:00PIONEER FOOD GROUP LIMITED - Pre-Close trading update for the eleven months to 3...
04/09/201209:14Vunani Property Investment Fund Ltd - Trading Statement And Adoption Of New Perf...
04/09/201209:00FIRSTRAND LIMITED - Trading statement in respect of the year yo June 2012
04/09/201208:51GROUP LIMITED - Details Regarding The Annual General Meeting Of The Company And ...
04/09/201208:21BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC - Transaction in own shares
04/09/201207:05ANGLO AMERICAN PLC - Treasury shares - Transfers

Click here for more SENS news