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 The Sharenet Daily 
Wednesday, 17 October 2012 - 20:00
Top News
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)

Slowing Global Growth

Last week, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) released updated world growth forecasts in their detailed World Economic Outlook report. Expected growth for 2012 has been reduced to 3.3%, down from 3.5% in their July forecast, which in turn was down from their April forecast. This is due to low growth and uncertainty in advanced economies affecting emerging and developing economies. Their projection is for advanced economies to grow by 1.3% compared to 1.6% last year and 3% in 2010.

These forecasts rest on some assumptions – the important ones being that European policymakers will adopt policies that will ease financial conditions in affected countries and in the US policymakers will be able to prevent a major negative impact of the looming tax increases and spending cuts – the so called fiscal cliff.

Emerging and developing countries are expected to grow by 5.3% from 6.2% in 2011 and 7.4% in 2010. China’s growth is expected to come in at 7.8% compared to 10.4% in 2010. The report makes the note that there is a 1 in 6 chance of global growth falling below 2%.

Everything being equal, lower economic growth forecasts are negative for markets, but we have noted before the low annual correlation between a country’s specific GDP and its market return. It is important to look at all the components of return that make up the total return. These are:

• The dividends received;
• Growth in earnings which can translate into higher dividends; and
• The change in the valuation of those earnings.

Dividends are the most stable component of total return. This is especially the case in times of slower economic growth. A growing company will be able to grow earnings and hence its dividends, being the second component of total return. Thirdly an important, but by far the least predictable, element of total return is the valuation of those earnings.

The chart below reflects total return from the US market per decade from 1926, splitting between the dividends and capital (growth and change in valuations). The period 2000-2011 was a low growth period, not because companies did not grow their earnings, but because starting dividend yields were low and valuations were very high.

Equity returns by decade: Dividends and Capital Appreciation

Source: Pimco, Standard and Poor

Historically US shares have produced around a 6.6% real return. Pimco’s view is that in a lower growth environment, this is likely to come down to around 3% - 4%, with most of this return derived from dividends. In order to boost this, active management becomes even more crucial as does looking for growth in companies that are expanding into emerging markets.

Kind regards,

Ian de Lange

021 914 4966

Wed, 17 Oct 2012
Top News
South Africa's benchmark stock index closed above 33,000 for the first time in its 17-year history on Wednesday, booking a record close for the third straight day as investors piled into oversold mining firms such as Anglo American.  Full story

Revenue for the interim period climbed to USD2.6 billion (2011: USD2.4 billion). Gross profit increased to USD377 million (2011: USD343.7 million), operating profit grew to USD71 million (2011: USD66.2 million), while profit for the period attributable to owners of the parent rose to USD39.3  Full story
Global stocks rose and the euro hit a one-month high on Wednesday, helped by brighter prospects for resolving Spain's debt woes, while better-than-expected housing. . .  Full story
Europe's equity market powered to three-week highs on Wednesday, with the Madrid bourse and the banking sector bolstered by news that Spain had. . .  Full story
Britain's top shares hit their highest level in more than a month on Wednesday, propelled by strength in risk-sensitive commodity stocks ahead of. . .  Full story
The S&P 500 rose on Wednesday, heading for its third straight day of gains, as U.S. housing starts hit a four-year high, but. . .  Full story

Gold held near $1,750 an ounce on Wednesday, underpinned by gains in the euro after Moody's rating agency affirmed Spain's investment grade status,. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks edged lower on Wednesday as solid housing data was outweighed by weakness in technology stocks after disappointing results from IBM and Intel.. . .  Full story
U.S. stock index futures added to gains after data showed groundbreaking on new U.S. homes surged in September to its fastest pace. . .  Full story
European shares rose for a third consecutive session on Wednesday after Spain clung onto its top grade credit rating, bolstering expectations the euro. . .  Full story

Ferrochrome prices have hit a low point and could turn higher in the new year as production costs and the impact on supply. . .  Full story
AngloGold Ashanti, the world's No.3 bullion producer, could make a decision next week on whether to follow other miners and issue. . .  Full story
A top Standard Chartered banker involved in making a $1 billion loan to the Indonesian chairman of London-listed Bumi Plc has quit after. . .  Full story
Toyota Motor Corp shut a South African car factory on Wednesday due to a strike at parts suppliers Toyota Boshuku, which. . .  Full story

South Africa's Village Main Reef said workers at its Blyvooruitzicht gold mine suspended an illegal strike and returned to work on. . .  Full story
Growth in South Africa's retail sales quickened to 6.4 percent year-on-year in August compared with a revised 2.9 percent in July,. . .  Full story
Bullion producer Gold Fields said on Wednesday an illegal strike at some of its Beatrix shafts in South Africa had ended. . .  Full story
South Korean carmaker Ssangyong Motor Co Ltd wants to make India its second largest export market, by taking advantage of parent company Mahindra and. . .  Full story
Company News
Cenrand noted the statement issued on 16 October 2012 by the South African Department of Water Affairs which confirms that the. . .  Full story
Medclin shareholders were referred to the announcements released on SENS on 1 August 2012, 24 August 2012 and 31 August 2012,. . .  Full story
Business Day highlighted that Taste Holdings will over the next six months plan to scale up the presence of its Fish. . .  Full story
Afrimat is pleased to announce that its headline earnings are expected to increase by between 20% and 25%. Earnings per share. . .  Full story

Resgen has released a webcast with the following details: Resource Generation Investor Presentation Oct 2012 * Speaker: Paul Jury, Managing Director *. . .  Full story
Resgen has released a webcast with the following details: Resource Generation MD comments on their opportunity in South Africa Speaker: *Mr. . .  Full story
The Chairman advised that the Company Secretary confirmed that there was a quorum present and opened the meeting. The Managing Director. . .  Full story
Business Day reported that Value Group said it would save cash over the next five years, which it would then use. . .  Full story
Company Results
Revenue grew 55% to R176.3 million (R113.4 million) whilst operating profit jumped 54% to R16.4 million (R10.7 million). Attributable income to. . .  Full story
Revenue for the interim period ended 31 August 2012 was CAD44.2 million (CAD54.9 million), while gross profit came in at CAD4.2. . .  Full story
Revenue for the interim period increased by 10% to R936.1 million (2011: R847.3 million). Gross profit rose by 10% to R385.4 million. . .  Full story
Revenue decreased slightly to R49 million (R49.5 million) and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation ("EBITDA") decreased to R5.2 million. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0037274.68300.000.81%
JSE Top 4017:0033037.18270.000.82%
JSE Gold17:002432.35-22.00-0.92%
JSE Financial17:0027503.84166.000.61%
JSE Industrial17:0043602.7493.000.22%
JSE Indust 2517:0037406.9564.000.17%
JSE Resource17:0051219.88970.001.93%
DJ Futures20:0013465.009.000.07%
DJ Ind20:0013521.26-30.52-0.23%
SP 50020:001457.512.590.18%
FTSE 10017:355910.9140.370.69%
All Ords07:574550.9037.000.82%
NZSE 5006:483965.1824.480.62%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold $19:591750.604.250.24%
Gold R20:0015053.93-136.87-0.90%
Gold R/kg20:00483984-3892-0.80%
Silver $19:5933.2100.25000.76%
Platinum $19:591662.0025.101.53%
Palladium $19:59650.3014.402.26%
Brent Crude20:00114.40-.67-0.58%
Rand / Dollar19:598.5993-0.0993-1.14%
Rand / Pound19:5513.8611-0.1282-0.92%
Rand / Euro19:5511.2865-0.1038-0.91%
Rand / NZD19:587.0663-0.0439-0.62%
Rand / AUD19:558.9215-0.0368-0.41%
Yen / Dollar19:5978.88000.00200.00%
Euro / Dollar19:550.7617-0.0015-0.20%
Dollar / Euro19:581.31220.00280.21%
Pound / Dollar19:550.6188-0.0013-0.21%

Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today

Trading Statistics
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 OSIRIS  130012879900.00.%5000
2 ADAPTIT  153117.75.%60193
3 CALGRO  585397.14.%272730
4 MIXTEL  240146.19.%55360
5 REDEFINTL  532275.35.%137819
6 LONMIN  72723575.16.%549665
7 AQUARIUS  555244.52.%668621
8 SOVFOOD  495204.21.%87055
9 ARM   177317054.14.%317141
10 ANGLO  264509933.90.%5185691
11 BRAIT  32531203.83.%485762
12 PETMIN  21883.81.%323145
13 AVENG  32041143.69.%1487667
14 HOLDSPORT  44501503.49.%72206
15 CADIZ  15053.45.%474250
16 SASFIN  31001003.33.%56262
17 ROCKCASTL  1010303.06.%135345
18 EXXARO  172005002.99.%1776245
19 IMPLATS  156154502.97.%1415902
20 TIGBRANDS  278008002.96.%486602

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 NUWORLD  1750-200-10.26.%8572
2 HULAMIN  355-25-6.58.%43764
3 CONDUIT  109-6-5.22.%100000
4 JASCO  147-8-5.16.%100000
5 ELBGROUP  2700-100-3.57.%110400
6 COMAIR  140-5-3.45.%2501
7 KAP  290-10-3.33.%110334
8 ALTRON-P  2120-70-3.20.%1776
9 RAINBOW  1285-40-3.02.%696092
10 DELTA  552-17-2.99.%5640
11 CLOVER  1555-45-2.81.%23124
12 AFRIMAT  700-20-2.78.%186060
13 HCI  9020-230-2.49.%112159
14 EASTPLATS  163-4-2.40.%116062
15 TELKOM  1826-44-2.35.%750498
16 ROLFES  379-9-2.32.%58133
17 KELLY  180-4-2.17.%55800
18 JSE  6711-141-2.06.%88928
19 BCX  520-10-1.89.%116282
20 ALTRON  2250-40-1.75.%11341

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 OSIRIS  130013001287.5000
2 CALGRO  585585397.14.%272730
3 BRAIT  325332561203.83.%485762
4 MMIHLDGS  21752183602.84.%8959568
5 BILLITON  27991281485912.16.%2551609
6 ASPEN  15049151002791.89.%611159
7 LIB-HOLD  10363103631731.70.%828941
8 SHOPRIT  17711179812771.59.%2208528
9 REMGRO  14788148251130.77.%600435
10 RICHEMONT  57775840420.73.%6738642
11 NASPERSN  54886550151380.25.%753712
12 DATATEC  54505559-51-0.93.%246757
13 CAPCO  32223273-39-1.20.%227523

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 KELLY  180180-4-2.17.%55800
2 ASTRAL  96309570-170-1.73.%203634
3 ARCMITTAL  38103790-40-1.04.%428174
4 CAPITEC-N  42953900-5-0.12.%176974
5 CADIZ  15014453.45.%474250

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Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4033,037.00270.000.82%
Mid Cap52,425.00470.000.91%
Small Cap38,327.00-21.00-0.06%
Resource 2051,219.00970.001.93%
Industrial 2537,406.0064.000.17%
Financial 1510,224.0061.000.61%
Financial & Ind. 3040,635.00100.000.25%
All Share37,274.00300.000.81%
Oil & Gas 29,009.0064.000.22%
Mining 32,793.00707.002.20%
Gold Mining2,432.00-22.00-0.92%
Platinum Mining52.002.004.68%
GENERAL MINING8,567.00235.002.83%
Oil & Gas Producers 15,598.0035.000.23%
Basic Materials 28,040.00557.002.03%
Chemicals 15,471.00-14.00-0.09%
Forestry & Paper 16,633.00-108.00-0.65%
Industrial Metals 26,668.00354.001.35%
Industrials 35,486.00255.000.72%
General Industrials
Consumer Goods 37,966.00-218.00-0.57%
Automobiles & Parts 6,958.0052.000.76%
Household Goods185.00-1-0.71%
Health Care 51,148.00669.001.33%
Beverages 126.00-1.00-1.48%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 65,956.00902.001.39%
Personal Goods 576.004.000.87%
Consumer Services 79,642.00517.000.65%
General Retailers 64,991.00528.000.82%
Travel & Leisure 4,344.001.000.05%
Support Services 2,228.0018.000.85%
Telecommunications 75,120.00651.000.88%
Financials 27,503.00166.000.61%
Banks 48,216.00280.000.59%
Non-life Insurance 47,979.00125.000.26%
Life Insurance 23,954.00121.000.51%
General Financial 2,481.0035.001.47%
Technology 34,048.00-221.00-0.65%
SHARIAH TOP40 3,279.00481.51%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,385.00471.43%
COAL MINING21,957.006222.92%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 5,537.0060.12%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,142.0080.76%
RESOURCE 28,170.005261.90%
DIVIDEND PLUS202.0021.20%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 407,590.00600.81%
Capped Top 4017,411.001370.79%
Capped All Share18,848.001490.80%
JSE TABACO 5,764.00-74-1.28%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
19/10/2012ANSYSAugust 2012 (Interim)
19/10/2012JUBILEEJune 2012 (Final)
19/10/2012OASISSeptember 2012 (Interim)
19/10/2012PSVAugust 2012 (Interim)
22/10/2012FAMBRANDSAugust 2012 (Interim)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
VALUE16/10/201211/01/201321/01/2013R 0.0800
AFROC-P12/10/201207/12/201218/12/2012R 0.2980
AFRO-C12/10/201207/12/201218/12/2012R 0.1050
CMH11/10/201207/12/201218/12/2012R 0.2500
BARWORLD6%P09/10/201226/10/201209/11/2012R 0.0600
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
WBHO03/09/201212/10/201222/10/2012R 2.4200
CAPITEC26/09/201212/10/201222/10/2012R 1.6900
JDGROUP27/08/201212/10/201222/10/2012R 1.3200
RAINBOW28/08/201212/10/201222/10/2012R 0.3200
FONEWORX28/09/201212/10/201222/10/2012R 0.0700

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
DSTDistell Group Ltd.17/10/2012Confirmed
CVHCapevin Holdings Ltd.18/10/2012Confirmed
PGRPeregrine Holdings Ltd.18/10/2012Unconfirmed
TSHTsogo Sun Holdings Ltd.18/10/2012Confirmed
AFRAFGRI Ltd.19/10/2012Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
17/10/201217:45S A French Limited - Results Of The General Meeting
17/10/201217:40A GROUP LIMITED - Updated trading statement
17/10/201217:40Buildmax Limited - Results Of Shareholders Meeting And Dividend Tax Information
17/10/201217:35JD GROUP LIMITED - Convertible Bond Conversion Price Adjustment
17/10/201217:30CAPITEC BANK HOLDINGS LIMITED - Dealing in securities by an associate of a direc...
17/10/201217:03INVESTEC BANK LIMITED - Basel III compliant subordinated debt issuance
17/10/201217:00SALLIES LIMITED - Fluormin preliminary results
17/10/201216:48DISTELL GROUP LIMITED - Report On Proceedings At Annual General Meeting
17/10/201216:30CONVERGENET HOLDINGS LIMITED - Posting of circular and notice of general meeting
17/10/201216:30IMITED - Directors' dealings
17/10/201216:00JSE LIMITED - Sea Kay - Withdrawal Of Cautionary Announcement
17/10/201215:30HOLDSPORT LIMITED - TRP 121: Notification of an aquisition of a beneficial inter...
17/10/201215:00CENTRAL RAND GOLD LIMITED - Acid Mine Drainage
17/10/201214:59NEDBANK LIMITED - warrant expiry
17/10/201214:57JSE LIMITED - Emphasis of matter
17/10/201214:11ESKOM HOLDINGS SOC LIMITED - Media Statement
17/10/201214:10JSE LIMITED - BIDC21 - Full Capital Redemption
17/10/201213:56BETTABETA CIS - Distribution announcement
17/10/201213:40GE MAIN REEF LIMITED - Village reaches aggreement with its Blyvoor employees to ...
17/10/201213:30SASFIN HOLDINGS LIMITED - Dealings by a Director
17/10/201213:08MEDICLINIC INTERNATIONAL LIMITED - Implementation Of The Comprehensive Refinanci...
17/10/201213:08BETTABETA CIS - Distribution announcement
17/10/201212:57METROFILE HOLDINGS LIMITED - Appointment of director
17/10/201212:35GROUP LIMITED - Cautionary Announcement
17/10/201212:00SUPER GROUP LIMITED - Presentation to Investors
17/10/201212:00CHROMETCO LIMITED - Chrometco unveils new directions to add value
17/10/201211:53ADCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED - Unaudited Group Results for the six months ended 31 Au...
17/10/201211:50BIDVESTCO LIMITED - New Instrument Listing
17/10/201211:49GOODERSON LEISURE CORPORATION LTD - Unaudited Condensed Interim Results for the...
17/10/201210:40GOLD FIELDS LIMITED - Strike Ends at Beatrix 1, 2 and 3 Sharts
17/10/201210:34STANDARD BANK OF SOUTH AFRICA LD - SCIB: The Standard Bank Of South Africa Limit...
17/10/201209:59GRAYSTON CONDUIT 1 (PTY) LTD - New Financial Instrument Listing
17/10/201209:13EASTERN PLATINUM LIMITED - Eastern Platinum Limited Holdings in company
17/10/201209:11AFRIMAT LIMITED - Trading Statement
17/10/201209:07RESOURCE GENERATION LIMITED - AGM Presentation October 2012 - BRR webcast
17/10/201208:35RESOURCE GENERATION LIMITED - Managing Director commentary webcast
17/10/201208:33RESOURCE GENERATION LIMITED - Minutes of the Annual General Meeting
17/10/201208:31RESOURCE GENERATION LIMITED - Quarterly Report for the three months ended 30 Sep...
17/10/201208:30MERAFE RESOURCES LIMITED - Third quarter 2012 ferrochrome production announcemen...
17/10/201208:00DATATEC LIMITED - Unaudited interim results for the six months ended 31 August 2...
17/10/201208:00Ipsa Group Plc - Tr-1: Notification Of Major Interest
17/10/201208:00BLACKSTAR GROUP SE - Receipt of EGM Requisition
17/10/201208:00JUBILEE PLATINUM PLC - Jubilee -operations update
17/10/201207:30INGUZA INVESTMENTS (PTY) LIMITED - Interest Rate Reset
17/10/201207:05BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC - Transaction in own shares
17/10/201207:05BHP BILLITON PLC - BHP Billiton Production Report for the Quarter Ended 30 Septe...
17/10/201207:05BHP BILLITON PLC - BHP Billiton Exploration and Development Report for the Quart...

Click here for more SENS news