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 The Sharenet Daily 
Tuesday, 18 November 2014 - 20:00
Top News
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)

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Seed weekly - A Longer Term Perspective on Asset Class Returns

Because investors are inundated with news flow, which very easily results in myopic behaviour, it is often useful to take a step back from time to time and have a good look at the bigger picture. SBG Securities have produced an in depth report on the returns that the various asset classes have produced over time in South Africa.

With no shortage of opportunities, investors have a wide choice as to what to do with their savings. Within a South African context, some of the main asset classes include money market, bonds, listed property, and listed shares. Analysing history is but one part of the process in trying to determine what investors can expect into the future.

The chart below provides a long term view of the returns across the main asset classes. Over 54 years from 1960 to the end of 2013, the arithmetic total return from equities came in at 19.5%, far exceeding the returns from bonds and cash and producing an 11.2% real return. Over meaningful periods of time, the total return from equities has been found to be in a range from 17% to 21%.

Chart 1: Asset Class Performance (1960-2013)

When measured over the last 38 years, to also include the total return from listed property, listed equities still outperformed in most measured periods, except for over the last 15 years, where an investment into listed property would have produced 21.3% against the 20.7% for equities.

The chart below, over the shorter period of 38 years, also includes gold and the total return derived from “investing” into ones’ mortgage bond.

Chart 2: Asset Class Performance – 38 years (1976 – 2013)

What is noteworthy is that South Africa has had a tumultuous time against which these superior returns from listed equities were generated. Some of the negatives included inflation rising to double digits from mid-1970’s to early 1990’s, prescribed investments into government bonds from mid-1960’s to late 1980’s for pension funds, the debt standstill crisis in mid-1980’s and then the move from apartheid to a democracy in 1994. Over the last 20 years, while operating a democracy, there has also been no shortage of both local and global issues, including the Asian crisis in 1997, and then the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, which resulted in the single biggest decline in listed equities in a calendar year of 28.3%.

It is a common fact that the returns from listed equities are volatile - one year returns have varied from negative 28% (2008) to a positive 137% (1999). It is this single fact that continues to keep many investors from being adequately invested. However, for those investors that can afford to adopt a horizon of at least 5 years, there have been no 5 year rolling periods since 1960 where investors have experienced a negative return in nominal terms.

The cumulative effect of a truly long term investor is astounding. SBG Securities have calculated that R100 in 1960 adjusted for inflation would be the equivalent of R7 000 today. An investor that had kept his money in the money market and reinvested the interest (also assuming no tax) would have turned his R100 into R14 000, while an investor compounding his investment on the JSE would be worth some R520 000.

The material difference in returns between “low risk” cash and bonds, on the one hand, and listed equities, on the other, means that all investors must give serious consideration to including them as a core component of their portfolio. Just what percentage this should be is largely dependent on one’s time horizon. The longer that investment horizon naturally the greater that weighting should be.

Kind regards,

Ian de Lange

021 914 4966

Tue, 18 Nov 2014
Top News
Local markets  Full story

South Africa's rand climbed 1 percent to 11.0230 on Tuesday, its strongest in two weeks against the dollar as Japan's slide into recession helped boost demand for higher-yielding emerging market assets. "The rand is stronger because high yields are in vogue at the moment," said Dav  Full story
Two Palestinians armed with a meat cleaver and a gun killed four worshippers in a Jerusalem synagogue on Tuesday before being shot dead by police, the deadliest such incident in six years in the holy city.  Full story
Hong Kong on Tuesday cleared part of a protest camp in the heart of the city that has been occupied by pro-democracy demonstrators for nearly two months, leaving most of the main protest site intact.  Full story
Romania's incoming president Klaus Iohannis said on Tuesday his party might try to topple Prime Minister Victor Ponta's government next year, an early sign of the instability that might follow his surprise victory.  Full story
Stock markets around the world rose on Tuesday and the yen hit a seven-year low as news of a surprise election and a. . .  Full story
Gold steadied below a 2-1/2 week high hit earlier on Tuesday as the dollar softened against the euro due partly to better-than-expected German. . .  Full story
Hong Kong shares fell again on Tuesday, as investors took profits from the landmark Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect scheme.. . .  Full story
China stocks ended lower on Tuesday as investors took profits in shares that rose sharply ahead of Monday's launch of the landmark Hong. . .  Full story

Japanese stocks had their biggest gain in two weeks on Tuesday as investors waited to see if Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will call. . .  Full story
Australian shares ended at their lowest in over three weeks on Tuesday with further declines in iron ore prices taking a heavy toll. . .  Full story
Oil prices fell and global equity markets were mixed on Monday after news that Japan unexpectedly slipped into recession in the third quarter. . .  Full story
Gold eased from a two-week high hit earlier on Monday as the dollar rose on news that Japan had slipped into recession, and. . .  Full story
SA Business
South Africa's Treasury sold 2.35 billion rand ($212 million) worth of its 2032, 2037 and 2048 bonds on Tuesday. Yields were. . .  Full story
South Africa is worried about the impact the Ebola outbreak could have on economic growth in Africa, Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene. . .  Full story
South African cement maker PPC Ltd reported flat full-year profit on Tuesday as growth in some of its sub-Saharan markets was. . .  Full story
South Africa's rand held steady against the dollar early on Tuesday as it waited for direction from abroad, while lower oil. . .  Full story

South African stocks fell for a second straight session on Tuesday as cement maker PPC slid the most in more than a year after it reported flat full-year profit and cut. . .  Full story
South Africa plans to spend $2.2 billion over two years to buy HIV/AIDS drugs for public hospitals, a government minister said on Monday, as a study shows the prevalence of the. . .  Full story
South Africa is worried about the impact the Ebola outbreak could have on economic growth in Africa, Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene said on Tuesday.. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:1050372.05-139.47-0.28%
JSE Top 4017:0044802.60-228.88-0.51%
JSE Gold17:001102.9365.016.26%
JSE Financial17:0040361.03166.260.41%
JSE Industrial17:1069506.89-246.14-0.35%
JSE Indust 2517:0061443.30-280.59-0.45%
JSE Resource17:0047310.47-458.55-0.96%
DJ Futures19:5217640.0018.000.10%
DJ Ind19:5817688.8941.140.23%
SP 50019:582050.809.480.46%
FTSE 10018:356709.1337.160.56%
All Ords07:405383.10-13.50-0.25%
NZSE 5006:505505.0314.800.27%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold $19:591195.069.150.77%
Gold R19:5913186.057.580.06%
Gold R/kg19:584240519670.23%
Silver $19:5916.1610.03200.20%
Platinum $19:591203.303.500.29%
Palladium $19:59775.506.900.90%
Brent Crude19:5878.59.851.09%
Rand / Dollar19:5911.0317-0.0816-0.73%
Rand / Pound19:5517.2249-0.1247-0.72%
Rand / Euro19:5513.8238-0.0159-0.11%
Rand / NZD19:598.7632-0.0365-0.41%
Rand / AUD19:559.6296-0.0604-0.62%
Yen / Dollar19:59116.78600.13800.12%
Euro / Dollar19:580.7980-0.0053-0.66%
Dollar / Euro19:591.25310.00830.67%
Pound / Dollar19:550.6387-0.0006-0.09%

Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today

Trading Statistics
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 EHSV  4397420.27.%8810
2 TIMES  214920910.77.%854
3 RANGOLD  230209.52.%1000
4 GFIELDS  46003488.18.%2161077
5 SIBANYE  21411618.13.%2803628
6 CENRAND  374246.86.%825
7 HARMONY  19171226.80.%3917828
8 ANGLOPLAT  3840324036.68.%309878
9 EASTPLATS  1579795.27.%974
10 TELKOM  66243295.23.%3316308
11 ZEDER  665314.89.%1908959
12 ANGGOLD  107654654.51.%1312552
13 OCEANA  90003514.06.%1188734
14 LONMIN  32251254.03.%930688
15 MASTDRILL  1300504.00.%39940
16 PHUMELELA  1990753.92.%67550
17 NIVEUS  33001003.12.%34978
18 IMPLATS  81852433.06.%1325585
19 RBPLAT  57701703.04.%202500
20 SASFIN  49951452.99.%11344

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 ATLATSA  220-40-15.38.%20080
2 OANDO  113-17-13.08.%12695
3 WILDRNESS  370-50-11.90.%116
4 BASREAD  460-40-8.00.%114444
5 SYNERGY-A  1200-100-7.69.%4
6 TREMATON  340-26-7.10.%2
7 CSG  210-15-6.67.%44289
8 SEARDEL  187-13-6.50.%2000
9 DELRAND  610-40-6.15.%334
10 AVENG  1641-89-5.14.%3483552
11 ARCMITTAL  3211-159-4.72.%124947
12 ADVHLTH  152-7-4.40.%107600
13 PPC  2581-114-4.23.%2337665
14 STEFSTOCK  720-29-3.87.%2190
15 ILIAD  720-27-3.61.%40230
16 POYNTING  270-10-3.57.%62
17 NET1UEPS  13500-500-3.57.%3052
18 MRPRICE  23600-800-3.28.%1757090
19 PALLINGHT  445-15-3.26.%65262
20 LIFEHC  4208-136-3.13.%2591846

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 TELKOM  662466643295.23.%3316308
2 ZEDER  665665314.89.%1908959
3 MMIHLDGS  30843093832.77.%2548166
4 NAMPAK  457045961002.24.%1490496
5 AFRO-C  535535101.90.%111088
6 MPACT  37253900691.89.%512706
7 EOH  11311113331951.75.%132259
8 OASIS  16251625241.50.%6717
9 JSE  11147112501631.48.%124427
10 ARROW-B  84785680.95.%404707
11 ARROW-A  84788420.24.%2554291
12 HOLDSPORT  470049500.31976
13 BRAIT  85758690-25-0.29.%495892
14 NETCARE  34713550-26-0.74.%3620743

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 AVENG  16411639-89-5.14.%3483552
2 PPC  25812502-114-4.23.%2337665
3 ASSORE  1821618005-484-2.59.%132841
4 MRHLD  21302129-39-1.80.%694981
5 WBHO  1189211700-198-1.64.%161076
6 AQUARIUS  241236-3-1.23.%802210
7 ARM   1353813240-98-0.72.%518265
8 HOSP-B  3002760.2610713
9 ALTRON-P  18501751251.37.%287958

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Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4044,802.60-228.88-0.51%
Mid Cap68,086.03660.020.98%
Small Cap57,357.60313.440.55%
Resource 2047,310.47-458.55-0.96%
Industrial 2561,443.30-280.59-0.45%
Financial 1515,485.9757.610.37%
Financial & Ind. 3065,648.72-177.02-0.27%
All Share50,372.05-139.47-0.28%
Oil & Gas 38,472.95-756.74-1.93%
Mining 27,797.76-130.42-0.47%
Gold Mining1,102.9365.016.26%
Platinum Mining36.231.323.78%
GENERAL MINING8,260.67-132.25-1.58%
Oil & Gas Producers 20,686.19-406.89-1.93%
Basic Materials 25,080.83-96.35-0.38%
Chemicals 24,238.96135.380.56%
Forestry & Paper 32,791.79222.690.68%
Industrial Metals 15,105.14-452.01-2.91%
Industrials 47,629.9566.650.14%
General Industrials 163.08.560.34%
Consumer Goods 61,072.05-237.66-0.39%
Automobiles & Parts 8,378.50-56.61-0.67%
Household Goods380.54-3-0.84%
Health Care 10,172.4649.200.49%
Beverages 207.36-1.88-0.90%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 9,186.1396.751.06%
Personal Goods 956.522.700.28%
Consumer Services 13,966.93-68.98-0.49%
General Retailers 72,632.80-601.98-0.82%
Travel & Leisure 6,324.8312.180.19%
Media 325.94-1.77-0.54%
Support Services 2,796.83-14.67-0.52%
Telecommunications 10,898.07-127.65-1.16%
Financials 40,361.03166.260.41%
Banks 70,385.84428.470.61%
Non-life Insurance 54,826.81-45.94-0.08%
Life Insurance 38,074.51117.310.31%
General Financial 3,991.1414.670.37%
Technology 48,515.28479.091.00%
SHARIAH TOP40 3,760.73-46-1.21%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,970.46-30-0.75%
COAL MINING14,540.55-16-0.11%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 6,549.18-39-0.60%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,353.37-3-0.25%
RESOURCE 25,723.98-196-0.76%
DIVIDEND PLUS228.8010.42%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 409,667.01-8-0.08%
Capped Top 4023,851.08-114-0.48%
Capped All Share25,536.96-69-0.27%
JSE TABACO 8,152.52-65-0.79%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
19/11/2014KEATONSeptember 2014 (Interim)
19/11/2014PPCSeptember 2014 (Final)
19/11/2014TIGBRANDSSeptember 2014 (Final)
19/11/2014TSO SUNSeptember 2014 (Interim)
20/11/2014ACCPROPSeptember 2014 (Interim)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
MRPRICE17/11/1405/12/1415/12/14ZAR 2.1150
ASTRAL17/11/1416/01/1526/01/15ZAR 2.4000
BARWORLD17/11/1416/01/1526/01/15ZAR 2.1400
ACUCAP14/11/1428/11/1408/12/14ZAR 1.6801
LIFEHC14/11/1428/11/1408/12/14ZAR 0.7800
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
SPANJAARD31/10/1414/11/1424/11/14ZAR 0.1000
CSG17/10/1414/11/1424/11/14ZAR 0.0400
PETMIN11/09/1414/11/1424/11/14ZAR 0.0300
RIPLC29/10/1414/11/1405/12/14GBP 0.0170
LONFIN30/09/1414/11/1412/12/14GBP 0.0045

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
GRTGrowthpoint Properties Ltd.18/11/2014Confirmed
KAPKAP Industrial Holdings Ltd.18/11/2014Confirmed
MNYMoneyWeb Holdings Ltd.18/11/2014Confirmed
MMIPMMI Holdings Ltd.18/11/2014Confirmed
MMIMMI Holdings Ltd.18/11/2014Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
18/11/201417:45MIX TELEMATICS LIMITED - Dealing in securities by a director of a major subsidia...
18/11/201417:23ANGLO AMERICAN PLC - Share Incentive Plan SIP
18/11/201417:12KAP INDUSTRIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED - Results Of The Annual General Meeting
18/11/201417:00SENTULA MINING LIMITED - Change to the Board of Directors - Appointment of Direc...
18/11/201416:55FAMOUS BRANDS LIMITED - Dealings in Securities by a Director
18/11/201416:49AFRICA ETF ISSUER LTD (RF) - Listing of additional AfricaPalladium debentures
18/11/201416:49REUNERT LIMITED - Audited preliminary consolidated results and cash dividend dec...
18/11/201416:30SAFARI INVESTMENTS (RSA) LTD - Dealing in Securities by an Associate of a Direct...
18/11/201416:30PROTECH KHUTHELE HOLDINGS LIMITED - Update and further cautionary announcement
18/11/201416:15OLD MUTUAL PLC - Public Opening Position Disclosure/Dealing Disclosure by a Pers...
18/11/201416:00NICTUS BEPERK - Trading statement for the six months ended 30 September 2014
18/11/201416:00SOUTHERN VIEW FINANCE LTD - Time of annual general meeting ("AGM") to be held on...
18/11/201415:57EMIRA PROPERTY FUND - EPFC13-New Instrument Listing
18/11/201415:40KAP INDUSTRIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED - Changes to the Board and Board Committees
18/11/201414:30ASCENDIS HEALTH LIMITED - Notification of Interest in Shares
18/11/201414:00ROCKCASTLE GLOBAL REAL EST CO LTD - Transfer of the listing of Rockcastle from t...
18/11/201413:59ROCKCASTLE GLOBAL REAL EST CO LTD - Dealings in securities by directors and asso...
18/11/201413:48STANDARD BANK OF SOUTH AFRICA LD - SCIB: The Standard Bank of South Africa Limit...
18/11/201413:20AFRICAN AND OVERSEAS ENTERPRISES LD - Results of annual general meeting
18/11/201413:15REX TRUEFORM CLOTHING COMPANY LTD - Results of annual general meeting
18/11/201412:53MONEYWEB HOLDINGS LIMITED - Results of Annual General Meeting
18/11/201411:58BARCLAYS AFRICA GROUP LIMITED - New Financial Instrument Listing - BGL02
18/11/201411:49SOVEREIGN FOOD INVESTMENTS LIMITED - Dealing in securities by Sovereign Food Inv...
18/11/201411:10BARCLAYS AFRICA GROUP LIMITED - New Financial Instrument Listing - BGL01
18/11/201411:10CONVERGENET HOLDINGS LIMITED - Approval of resolutions proposed in terms of sect...
18/11/201411:00CLOVER INDUSTRIES LIMITED - Further cautionary announcement
18/11/201411:00JUBILEE PLATINUM PLC - Market update
18/11/201410:50NEW GOLD ISSUER LIMITED - NGPLD - Additional listing of Newgold Palladium Debent...
18/11/201410:15IMPERIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED - Dealings in Securities by Company Secretary of Imper...
18/11/201409:45PPC LIMITED - Changes to the Nomination Committee
18/11/201409:36DELRAND RESOURCES LIMITED - TSX Conditional Approval & New Shareholders Meeting ...
18/11/201409:17DELRAND RESOURCES LIMITED - Management's Discussion, Analysis of Financial Condi...
18/11/201409:17DELRAND RESOURCES LIMITED - Interim Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements ...
18/11/201409:01HOLDSPORT LIMITED - Announcement of special dividend
18/11/201409:00PPC LIMITED - Presentation of 2014 Final Financial Results
18/11/201409:00DEVELOPMENT BANK OF SOUTHERN AFRICA - New Financial Instrument Listing Announcem...
18/11/201409:00GLENCORE PLC - GLN - Transaction in own shares
18/11/201408:27CSG HOLDINGS LIMITED - Interim results for the 6 months ended 30 September 2014
18/11/201407:05COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA - Richemont interim report 2014 available on R...
18/11/201407:05BUSINESS CONNEXION GROUP LIMITED - Audited preliminary results for the year ende...
18/11/201407:05PPC LIMITED - Audited preliminary summarised group results for the year ended 30...

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