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 The Sharenet Daily 
Wednesday, 27 July 2016 - 20:00
 
Charts
News
Top News
Markets
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)


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Seed Weekly - Currency Valuation

An important part of Seed’s multi management process is performing monthly asset class valuations using our in-house quantitative models. This process covers all of the local and global asset classes that are suitable for inclusion in our multi asset class funds and model portfolios. The output of these models guide our tactical asset allocation decisions, where we under- or overweight certain asset classes in the short term, compared to our longer term target weights.

When evaluating global asset classes for our funds, we try to separate the currency decision from the underlying asset class valuation. Practically, this means that if global equities show a lot of value, we might allocate even when the rand is weak. Although currency volatility might overshadow our asset class decisions in the short term, investing at attractive valuations pays off over the long term.

We look at both the trend exchange rate of the Trade Weighted Basket of currencies and the well-known Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) relationship against each of the majors on a monthly basis.

The Trade Weighted exchange rate of the rand is based on trade in and consumption of manufactured goods between South Africa and its most important trading partners, incorporating twenty different currencies. Presently, the five major currencies in the basket are the Euro (29%), Chinese yuan (20%), US dollar (14%), Japanese yen (6%) and British pound (6%).

The graph below illustrates that the rand is around 20% undervalued given the long term trend in the Trade Weighted basket of currencies:

Source: Seed Investments 26 July 2016

The PPP relationship is based on the law of one price, meaning a consumer should be able to pay the same price for a diversified basket of goods, no matter in which economy the purchase is made. In SA, with local annual inflation running at 6.1%, a consumer will see his purchasing power eroded a lot quicker than in the US, where inflation is 1.0%. Therefore, a SA consumer needs to be “rewarded” with more rand per US dollar each year - resulting in rand depreciation - if this relationship holds.

Theoretically, PPP implies that SA’s 5% higher inflation should result in around 5% depreciation per annum against the dollar. In practice, actual exchange rates can deviate from the calculated PPP estimate for extended periods. Over the last 10 years, SA inflation has been running at 6.3%, with US inflation at 1.8%, while the rand has weakened by 7.5%, quite a bit more than the expected 4.5%.

The graph below illustrates that, at a market rate of R 14.70 as at end June, the rand is around 37% undervalued vs. the calculated PPP rate of R 10.69.

Source: Seed Investments 26 June 2016

In the wake of the Nenegate sage in December last year, the rand has been exceptionally volatile, prompting many investors to re-evaluate their global exposure. At Seed, we have not traded on the short term volatility, but have maintained our global allocations at close to 25% for our multi asset class funds and model portfolios.

Kind regards,

Cor van Deventer

***SEED IS HIRING: Click here to view vacancy

Tel +27 21 914 4966
Fax +27 21 914 4912
Email info@seedinvestments.co.za

Please click here to view our disclaimer. For more information please visit our website.

Wed, 27 Jul 2016
Top News
[IMAGE]
South Africa's rand traded slightly firmer against the dollar on Wednesday as investors speculated that the Federal Reserve would signal low rates for longer in the United States, boosting demand for high-yielding emerging markets.  Full story

[IMAGE]
Local markets  Full story
Barack Obama will highlight Hillary Clinton's judgment and toughness on Wednesday as he seeks to boost her campaign to be the first woman U.S. president, hoping to hand off the White House to a trusted fellow Democrat and stop Republican Donald Trump.  Full story
A woman who wanted to stop her husband boarding a plane at Geneva has admitted making a false bomb threat, prosecutors said on Wednesday, after hours of tightened security that caused traffic chaos around the airport on the French-Swiss border.  Full story
A large truck bomb blast claimed by Islamic State killed nearly 50 people and wounded scores more in the northeastern Syrian city of Qamishli near the Turkish border on Wednesday, a monitoring group and state television reported.  Full story
 
SA Business
South Africa's Public Investment Corporation (PIC) is in talks with SABMiller over an improved offer from Anheuser-Busch Inbev, the state pension. . .  Full story
South Africa will likely harvest 7.26 million tonnes of maize in 2016, up 1.4 percent from the previous estimate as yellow. . .  Full story
South Africa will avoid a recession this year with a recovery in areas like mining and manufacturing likely to lift growth. . .  Full story
South African energy workers plan to strike from Thursday over wages, potentially affecting crude oil refineries and fuel depots, the Chemical,. . .  Full story

More than 15,000 employees in South Africa's petroleum sector are expected to go on strike this week after wage talks with employers failed, Talk Radio 702 reported on Tuesday.. . .  Full story
Company News
On 27 July 2016, OM Asset Management plc (OMAM), the majority-owned subsidiary of Old Mutual plc, made a filing with the. . .  Full story
INVESTEC LIMITED - Transactions in Investec plc sh 27 Jul 2016 INL INP 201607270044A Transactions in Investec plc shares Investec Limited. . .  Full story
Shareholders are advised that all the resolutions set out in the Notice of Annual General Meeting were passed by the requisite. . .  Full story
Fortress A shareholders are referred to the Fortress Memorandum of Incorporation in which it states that the Fortress A dividend of. . .  Full story

Spur increased total restaurant sales by 12.9% to R6.97 billion in the year to June 2016. Restaurant sales in South Africa grew. . .  Full story
Further to the announcements released by Investec plc (˘Investec÷) dated (i) 20 June 2016 entitled ˘Offer for Purchase of Preference Shares. . .  Full story
Shareholders are advised that on 20 March 2014, the Gauteng Off-Course BookmakersĂ Association (˘GOBA÷) and others lodged a complaint with the. . .  Full story
On 26 July 2016, OM Asset Management plc (OMAM), the majority-owned subsidiary of Old Mutual, made a filing with the SEC. . .  Full story
Company Results
Revenue for the interim period decreased to R17.566 billion (2015: R19.951 billion). Operating profit lowered to R5.155 billion (2015: R5.632 billion),. . .  Full story
Revenue for the interim period went up 5% to R9.1 billion (R8.6 billion). Profit from operations decreased by 42% to R571. . .  Full story
Revenue from continuing operations for the interim period 30 June 2016 increased to GBP58.4 million (2015: GBP52 million). Net rental income. . .  Full story
Revenue for the year fell to R1 581 million (2015: R1 590 million). Loss before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation ("EBITDA"). . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall16:5053667.4929.450.05%
JSE Top 4016:5046791.783.460.01%
JSE Gold16:502770.0929.901.09%
JSE Financial16:5042212.7329.660.07%
JSE Industrial16:5079717.63-224.58-0.28%
JSE Indust 2516:5071644.52-227.73-0.32%
JSE Resource16:5031954.80329.861.04%
DJ Futures19:5818379.00-19.00-0.10%
DJ Ind19:5818465.80-7.95-0.04%
SP 50019:582163.64-5.54-0.26%
Nasdaq19:585129.4619.410.38%
FTSE 10016:456744.9620.930.31%
DAX18:0810319.5571.790.70%
CAC4018:084446.9652.191.19%
Nikkei08:5216664.82281.781.72%
Shanghai09:282992.00-58.17-1.91%
Hang-Seng10:2822218.9989.260.40%
All Ords08:415615.002.400.04%
NZSE 5009:087301.90-8.49-0.12%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold $19:591326.927.200.55%
Gold R19:5718997.0354.550.29%
Gold R/kg19:5661106520650.34%
Silver $19:5819.93000.33101.69%
Platinum $19:571121.1431.852.93%
Palladium $19:59699.0312.531.83%
R18617:418.750.010.11%
R20417:007.80-0.03-0.32%
R20716:348.03-0.03-0.31%
Brent Crude19:5843.59-1.28-2.85%
USD / ZAR19:5814.3188-0.0412-0.29%
GBP / ZAR19:4518.7971-0.0422-0.22%
EUR/ ZAR19:5015.7424-0.0403-0.26%
NZD/ ZAR19:5710.0991-0.0442-0.44%
AUD / ZAR19:5510.7051-0.0748-0.69%
USD / JPY19:59105.62000.89500.85%
EUR / USD19:591.09980.00110.10%
GBP / USD19:591.31390.00040.03%

Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today

Trading Statistics
DateAdv.Decl.Unch.ActivesVolumeValueTradesOrders
27/07/201616417258394263,919,327R21,899,749,8712607632057884
26/07/201623410565404249,816,557R18,264,758,6522384571903789
25/07/201621812665409243,931,775R19,479,108,8062247261266065
22/07/201618214251375219,909,114R16,367,681,852205222439943
21/07/201619214270404240,590,442R17,200,932,2122249982141140
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 ASCENDISN  10655107.84.%1120576
2 RAUBEX  19991397.47.%135552
3 CROOKES  63004006.78.%10
4 NORTHAM  50973126.52.%982878
5 KUMBAIO  132037746.23.%481122
6 IMPLATS  56692705.00.%3236538
7 HOSP-B  330154.76.%10000
8 DRDGOLD  1115504.69.%693187
9 ANGLOPLAT  4262917134.19.%510241
10 LONMIN  42111674.13.%665285
11 MRHLD  1319473.69.%420171
12 GFIELDS  85462953.58.%2923294
13 AECI  94993243.53.%897250
14 RICHEMONT  84972823.43.%4650817
15 Greenbay  15353.38.%7552988
16 CLIENTELE  1550503.33.%4500
17 HOSP-A  1260403.28.%55990
18 DIAMONDCP  13043.17.%49302
19 BARWORLD  81802453.09.%496928
20 GROUP-5  2339622.72.%3037

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 BRIMSTON  1200-270-18.37.%4950
2 ALTRON  520-80-13.33.%400
3 PUTPROP  530-70-11.67.%3816
4 AFROX  1960-140-6.67.%44590
5 SILVERB  280-18-6.04.%38268
6 RENERGEN  1300-80-5.80.%3402
7 BASREAD  276-12-4.17.%22288
8 E-MEDIA-N  500-20-3.85.%101250
9 CSG  130-5-3.70.%35098
10 IAPF  1450-50-3.33.%146384
11 VALUE  290-10-3.33.%6333
12 PNR-FOODS  18212-588-3.13.%427589
13 WESCOAL  155-5-3.13.%220500
14 DISTELL  16451-509-3.00.%1020
15 BLUETEL  1803-55-2.96.%1277754
16 INVLTD  8594-257-2.90.%902905
17 BALWIN  885-25-2.75.%1230113
18 NAMPAK  2153-58-2.62.%3218211
19 ABINBEV  178066-4695-2.57.%81938
20 LIFEHC  3800-97-2.49.%4449235

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 NORTHAM  509752363126.52.%982878
2 RMIH  45404594581.29.%1903217
3 HYPROP  14116141851310.94.%380787
4 BIDVEST  15830161711300.83.%2643932
5 TSOGO-SUN  29482975100.34.%1103231
6 SIBANYE  63906491-5-0.08.%4867757
7 HUGE  560570-9-1.58.%27500

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 ASTORIA  11441100-6-0.52.%269008

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Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4046,791.783.460.01%
Industrial79,717.63-224.58-0.28%
Mid Cap81,243.78271.270.34%
Small Cap60,672.14-30.93-0.05%
Resource 2031,954.80329.861.04%
Industrial 2571,644.52-227.73-0.32%
Financial 1515,287.4313.560.09%
Financial & Ind. 3074,050.01-114.39-0.15%
All Share53,667.4929.450.05%
Oil & Gas 7,195.69.000.00%
Mining 23,989.74417.951.77%
Gold Mining2,770.0929.901.09%
Platinum Mining28.311.355.01%
GENERAL MINING5,569.6288.791.62%
Oil & Gas Producers 38,689.88.000.00%
Basic Materials 22,812.36251.401.11%
Chemicals 20,249.602.310.01%
Forestry & Paper 50,750.70-567.28-1.11%
Industrial Metals 9,805.11574.806.23%
Industrials 48,427.43241.840.50%
General Industrials 188.06.250.13%
Consumer Goods 73,701.75-25.43-0.03%
Automobiles & Parts 4,234.54-67.93-1.58%
Household Goods605.2350.89%
Health Care 10,255.32-145.05-1.39%
Beverages 279.29-4.16-1.47%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 9,904.34-82.37-0.82%
Personal Goods 850.5530.073.66%
Consumer Services 19,070.97-13.30-0.07%
General Retailers 8,222.6528.170.34%
Travel & Leisure 6,281.131.490.02%
Media 492.70-.10-0.02%
Support Services 2,123.429.490.45%
Telecommunications 7,857.04-193.05-2.40%
Financials 42,212.7329.660.07%
Banks 7,058.7812.100.17%
Non-life Insurance 58,144.69-428.78-0.73%
Life Insurance 39,415.03113.660.29%
General Financial 4,069.25-21.65-0.53%
Technology 53,936.0310.200.02%
SHARIAH TOP40 3,158.08150.47%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,560.45200.58%
COAL MINING10,921.21490.45%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 7,324.85190.26%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,462.65-5-0.36%
SA LISTED PROPERTY 675.75-.26-0.04%
CAPPED PROPERTY 563.800.16%
RESOURCE 18,201.942011.11%
DIVIDEND PLUS211.16-0-0.17%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 409,794.04310.31%
Capped Top 4024,990.94260.10%
Capped All Share27,426.69280.10%
JSE TABACO 11,342.48-178-1.55%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
EMIEMIRA PROPERTY FUNDSELL26/07/2016
SACSA CORPORATE REAL ESTATE ...BUY26/07/2016
KIOKUMBA IRON ORE LTD SELL26/07/2016
HYPHYPROP INVESTMENTS LIMITE...HOLD26/07/2016
RDFREDEFINE PROPERTIES LTDHOLD26/07/2016
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
28/07/2016ANGLOJune 2016 (Interim)
28/07/2016ANGLO-PJune 2016 (Interim)
28/07/2016INT HOTELMay 2016 (Q)
28/07/2016INTUPLCJune 2016 (Interim)
29/07/2016ABSABANK-PJune 2016 (Interim)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
CAPCO26/07/1606/09/1630/09/16GBP 0.0050
AECI26/07/1630/08/1605/09/16ZAR 1.3500
ECSP B1225/07/1608/08/1615/08/16ZAR 1.4699
ECSP A425/07/1608/08/1615/08/16ZAR 1.0137
ECSP A25/07/1608/08/1615/08/16ZAR 1.0137
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
INVICTA14/06/1626/07/1601/08/16ZAR 0.7528
INVLTD19/05/1626/07/1610/08/16GBP 0.1150
INVPLC19/05/1626/07/1610/08/16GBP 0.1150
ARGENT29/06/1626/07/1601/08/16ZAR 0.0900
TRUSTCO27/06/1626/07/1622/08/16NAD 0.0740

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
TONTongaat Hulett Ltd.27/07/2016Confirmed
RACPRECM - Calibre Ltd.27/07/2016Confirmed
RACCRECM - Calibre Ltd.27/07/2016Confirmed
APFAccelerate Property Fund Ltd28/07/2016Confirmed
CKSCrookes Brothers Ltd.29/07/2016Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
DateTimeHeadline
27/07/201617:35OLD MUTUAL PLC - OM Asset Management Plc Offering of Notes
27/07/201617:18RECM AND CALIBRE LIMITED - Results of the annual general meeting and the general...
27/07/201617:00TORRE INDUSTRIES LIMITED - Posting of combined offer circular to Torre sharehold...
27/07/201617:00INVESTEC LIMITED - Transactions in Investec plc shares
27/07/201616:50PIONEER FOOD GROUP LIMITED - Dealing In Securities By A Director Of A Major Subs...
27/07/201616:10INVESTEC PROPERTY FUND LIMITED - IPFC10 - Scheduled redemption of Notes
27/07/201615:40GREENHOUSE FUNDING (RF) LIMITED - Investor report - GRH1A3/GRH1B/GRH1C
27/07/201615:15GAIA INFRASTRUCTURE CAPITAL LIMITED - Dealing In Gaia Shares By An Associate Of ...
27/07/201615:00THE FOSCHINI GROUP LIMITED - Directors election to receive scrip distribution
27/07/201614:53TONGAAT HULETT LIMITED - Results of Annual General Meeting
27/07/201614:52ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LIMITED - Satisfaction of the conditions for the redemption of...
27/07/201614:07IVUZI INVESTMENTS LIMITED - IVA644-Listing of New Instrument
27/07/201614:00IVUZI INVESTMENTS LIMITED - IVA638-Listing of Tap Issue
27/07/201613:45SABMILLER PLC - Altria Financial Data Disclosure
27/07/201613:30OLD MUTUAL PLC - Form 8.3 Disclosure - Deutsche
27/07/201613:25AMALGAMATED ELECTRONIC CORP LIMITED - Trading Statement
27/07/201613:00Santova Limited - Results Of The Annual General Meeting
27/07/201612:45FORTRESS INCOME FUND LIMITED - Trading statement
27/07/201612:40enX GROUP LIMITED - Successful closing of WAI acquisition and acquisition of the...
27/07/201612:20DIPULA INCOME FUND LIMITED - Dealings in securities by an associate of a directo...
27/07/201612:18TRANSACTION CAPITAL LIMITED - Dealing in Securities
27/07/201612:00GAIA INFRASTRUCTURE CAPITAL LIMITED - Change To The Board Of Directors
27/07/201611:59GAIA INFRASTRUCTURE CAPITAL LIMITED - CANCELLATION OF S374391 Change To The Boar...
27/07/201611:51SIBANYE GOLD LIMITED - Trading statement and operating update for the six-months...
27/07/201611:45CAPITAL & COUNTIES PROPERTIES PLC - Notification of Major Interests in Shares
27/07/201611:45OLD MUTUAL PLC - Form 8.3 - Public Opening Position Disclosure - RPC Group Plc
27/07/201611:35KUMBA IRON ORE LIMITED - Dealings in securities by a director of a major subsidi...
27/07/201611:33RECM AND CALIBRE LIMITED - Prepared comments from RAC shareholders meeting
27/07/201611:00SPUR CORPORATION LIMITED - Sales update for the year ended June 2016
27/07/201611:00OLD MUTUAL PLC - Form 8.3 - Public Opening Position Disclosure - Rank Group plc
27/07/201610:30GAIA INFRASTRUCTURE CAPITAL LIMITED - Change To The Board Of Directors
27/07/201610:30PRECINCT FUNDING 1 (RF) LIMITED - SENS Notice - Interest rate reset - Precinct F...
27/07/201610:15BLUE TITANIUM CONDUIT (RF) LIMITED - Rating Action: Fitch Affirms Blue Titanium ...
27/07/201610:13BEIGE HOLDINGS LIMITED - Notice Convening the Scheme Meeting of Shareholders
27/07/201610:00The Thekwini Fund 13 (rf) Limited - The Thekwini Fund 13 - New Financial Instrum...
27/07/201609:15PHUMELELA GAMING & LEISURE LIMITED - Competition Complaint
27/07/201609:15PHUMELELA GAMING & LEISURE LIMITED - Competition Complaint
27/07/201609:14Africa Etf Issuer (rf) Limited - Redemption Of Africapalladium Debentures
27/07/201609:00TRANSNET SOC LIMITED - TN25; TN30; TN40 Bond Tap Issue
27/07/201609:00SABMILLER PLC - Rule 2.10 announcement
27/07/201609:00INVESTEC PLC - Offer for purchase of preference shares issued by Investec plc - ...
27/07/201608:00OLD MUTUAL PLC - OM Asset Management Plc Offering of 4.800% Notes Due 2026
27/07/201607:07BARLOWORLD LIMITED - BAW3 - Interest Rate Reset
27/07/201607:06BARLOWORLD LIMITED - BAW13 - Interest Rate Reset
27/07/201607:05BARLOWORLD LIMITED - BAW10 - Interest Rate Reset
27/07/201607:05ABSA BANK LIMITED - ASN159 - New Financial Instrument Listing

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