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 The Sharenet Daily 
Tuesday, 26 January 2016 - 20:00
Top News
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)

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Seed Weekly - Summary of 2015 Performance

The last month of 2015 and then into January 2016 proved to be exceptionally volatile for investments, both locally and globally. The big economic story was the rand weakness in December, which has perpetuated into January 2016. While the rand had been declining throughout 2015, it was sold down heavily in December and further into January. This followed the sudden and politically motivated replacement of the incumbent Finance Minister with an unknown, and then under duress reinstating Nene’s predecessor, Pravin Gordhan.

Over the month of December, the rand weakened by almost 7% to the dollar, bringing the total rand weakness to 35% for the 2015 year. During December all 3 rating agencies delivered downgrades on government debt ratings or to their outlook. Failing drastic action, the next step is possible derating to sub investment grade. Fitch and S&P have review dates in June 2016.

South African government bonds were sold down heavily as investors’ risk assessment of South African investments increased. This translated into an immediate negative impact on holders of SA bonds, property shares and financial shares.

The rising yield is a gauge of the actual and perceived risk that both local and foreign investors have of South African bonds. When other South African investment assets are discounted by the higher yield their price declines, which is exactly what happened to listed property and equities, especially financials.

The chart below is the yield demanded by investors in the R186 government bond. This is a benchmark bond, having the highest weight in the All Bond index.

Chart 1: Yield on the R186

December saw local equities decline by 1.7%, which brought the total return for listed JSE shares to just 5.1% for 2015. This was, therefore, down sharply from the positive 10.9% in 2014, 21.4% in 2013 and 26.7% in 2012, and paints a clear picture of the bull market in local shares coming to a close. In USD terms, local shares fell by 21.5%

Our models have been indicating that local shares have been expensive for some time now, and the lower returns were therefore not too much of a surprise. As always, sector and stock selection was very important, but in 2015 it was particularly the case. At a sector level, in making up the 5.1% return, resources declined a massive 37%, Industrial shares gained 15.3% and financials gained just 3.9%. Clearly, avoiding resources in 2015 was critical.

Secondly, within these sectors relatively few shares contributed to the positive performance of the total return. It has been estimated that excluding the performance of SABMiller, the index would have been negative and excluding the performance of 4 shares - SABMiller, Naspers, British American Tobacco and Steinhoff would have seen a return of approximately negative 7% on the JSE All Share index.

It is clear, therefore, that investors who held little or no exposure to these 4 shares struggled to match the return of the JSE All Share index.

Globally the big news item was the US Federal Reserve raising their core interest rates for the first time since June 2006. This was widely telegraphed to the market and therefore largely priced in. However on the day of the hike the S&P 500 rose by 1.5%, but subsequent action has been negative. The market is pricing in that the US Federal Funds rate will be just 1.75% by the end of 2018. In the light of zero to low inflation, falling commodity prices and excess capacity, the rise in interest rates is expected to be a slow process.

The MSCI All Country World Index ended down 1.8% for 2015. This followed the 5.5% gain in 2014 and the 23.4% gain in 2013. Emerging markets came under immense pressure in 2015 declining 14.6%.

Emerging market declines was partly attributable to the decline in commodity prices and partly due to the currency declines. Brent crude fell sharply in December – down 17% and into 2016 has continued to fall to new multi-year lows. For 2015 the price fell back 38%.

Other commodity prices continued their downward slide during 2015. Copper shed 26% and Platinum 28%. The price of gold in USD fell 10.5% for the year.

The analysis that we receive from research house BCA have been urging all investors to reduce expectations of both real and nominal returns on their investments. As an example for a global diversified portfolio, the nominal annual return from an investment from 1982 to 2015 was 9.7% in USD with average inflation over this period running at 2.7%.

Their expectation for the next 10 years is for that same diversified portfolio to return just 4.5% in USD with developed market inflation running at 2%. In this environment proper diversification, intelligent allocation of capital and a focus on costs becomes even more important than normal.

Warm regards,

Ian de Lange

Tel +27 21 914 4966
Fax +27 21 914 4912
Email info@seedinvestments.co.za


Tue, 26 Jan 2016
Top News
Local markets An 9.75% rise in gold mining shares led gains across the JSE on Tuesday, with the All Share ending 0.68% higher.  Full story

South Africa's rand weakened in early trade on Tuesday as an oil price plunge swung global markets away from riskier assets. Stocks were also weaker in early trade, with the broader All-share index down 0.81 percent and the blue-chip Top-40 slipped 1.06 percent.  Full story
The United Nations invited Syria's government and opposition to peace talks in Geneva on Friday, but it remained unclear whether Saudi-backed opponents of President Bashar al-Assad would overcome their objections to taking part.  Full story
Generating economic growth in the Middle East is crucial to defeating extremism, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday, putting forward his country as a regional trade hub and pillar of stability.  Full story
Malaysia's attorney-general cleared Prime Minister Najib Razak of any criminal offences or corruption on Tuesday, closing investigations into a murky multi-million-dollar funding scandal that his opponents had hoped would bring him down.  Full story
Company News
It was announced today that Bradley Fried will be joining the board of the UKĂs Financial Conduct Authority as a Non-Executive. . .  Full story
Shareholders are advised that the summarised annual financial statements of Transaction Capital for the year ended 30 September 2015 as set. . .  Full story
Anglo American announced the value of rough diamond sales (Global Sightholder Sales and Auction Sales) for De BeersĂ first sales cycle. . .  Full story
Spur Corporation increased total restaurant sales by 12.6% to R3.5 billion in the six months to December 2015 (˘the period÷). Restaurant. . .  Full story

PPC is pleased to advise its shareholders that all the proposed ordinary and special resolutions contained in the Notice of the AGM (˘Notice÷) dated 7 December 2015 and tabled at the CompanyĂs AGM held on Monday, 25 January 2016 were passed. . .  Full story
Further to the cautionary announcement dated 10 December 2015, shareholders are hereby advised that negotiations regarding Blue LabelĂs participation in the recapitalisation of Cell C Proprietary Limited are ongoing, which, if successfully concluded, may have a material impact on the price. . .  Full story
Company Results
Revenue for the interim period grew to R205.1 million (R160.9 million). EBITDA improved to R2.7 million (loss of R14.2 million). Loss attributable to equity holders narrowed to R9.1 million (loss of R39.8 million). In addition, headline loss per share was 1.02cps (loss of 13.17cps). Dividend policy The dividend policy will be reviewed periodically taking into account prevailing circumstances and future cash requirements. In view of the companyĂs financial position, no dividend is pr. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0047532.40321.980.68%
JSE Top 4017:0042625.80212.470.50%
JSE Gold17:001552.37137.929.75%
JSE Financial17:0037455.72178.140.48%
JSE Industrial17:0074449.66113.990.15%
JSE Indust 2517:0067626.07125.030.19%
JSE Resource17:0024087.75679.192.90%
DJ Futures19:4216090.00279.001.76%
DJ Ind19:5816166.89281.671.77%
SP 50019:581903.5726.491.41%
FTSE 10016:185887.5610.560.18%
All Ords25/015057.1087.501.76%
NZSE 5007:286142.15-33.09-0.54%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold $19:591118.6310.190.92%
Gold R19:5818302.0912.980.07%
Gold R/kg19:585884124170.07%
Silver $19:5914.51800.28201.98%
Platinum $19:58874.4219.502.28%
Palladium $19:59491.103.390.70%
Brent Crude19:4231.89-0.29-0.90%
USD / ZAR19:5916.3627-0.1650-1.00%
GBP / ZAR19:5523.4472-0.0753-0.32%
EUR/ ZAR19:5517.7354-0.2049-1.14%
NZD/ ZAR19/0110.758710.75870.00%
AUD / ZAR19:5511.4827-0.0059-0.05%
USD / JPY19:59118.55800.21400.18%
EUR / USD19:591.0844-0.0005-0.05%
GBP / USD19:591.43500.01020.72%

Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today

Trading Statistics
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 LONMIN  125927427.82.%519771
2 TRNPACO  221626613.64.%31713
3 GFIELDS  586068013.13.%4484119
4 ARM   518559813.04.%1631978
5 DRDGOLD  4805512.94.%3963659
6 ANGLOPLAT  20931228212.24.%920727
7 KUMBAIO  326535412.16.%994723
8 ANGGOLD  1475012609.34.%3615603
9 PAN-AF  246219.33.%1341032
10 HARMONY  32052558.64.%2321106
11 RBPLAT  24491797.89.%11367
12 MRHLD  775557.64.%693412
13 MAZOR  12886.67.%201560
14 ANGLO  57803616.66.%9041699
15 IMPLATS  26561566.24.%5278305
16 SIBANYE  37352075.87.%5521871
17 ASCEN_A  455255.81.%1000000
18 BALWIN  675355.47.%470178
19 EXXARO  50872575.32.%522161
20 ENX  200105.26.%1500

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 MONTAUK  1040-100-8.77.%10550
2 NIVEUS  1700-150-8.11.%35442
3 CHOPPIES  520-40-7.14.%23536
4 NET1UEPS  17300-1269-6.83.%4151
5 YORK  200-14-6.54.%5001
6 AFRO-C  430-29-6.32.%302844
7 FAIRVEST  150-10-6.25.%50005
8 BASREAD  305-20-6.15.%10351
9 SASFIN  4603-297-6.06.%2361
10 TASTE  255-15-5.56.%102739
11 ACSION  901-49-5.16.%1052
12 CMH  1400-70-4.76.%26190
13 METROFILE  405-20-4.71.%162350
14 SUPRGRP  3735-178-4.55.%984372
15 CURRO  4327-203-4.48.%503934
16 ARGENT  352-16-4.35.%55573
17 KIBO  115-5-4.17.%17042
18 TORRE  350-15-4.11.%78390
19 LEWIS  4199-179-4.09.%237195
20 BOWCALF  1020-40-3.77.%89714

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 DRDGOLD  4805305512.94.%3963659
2 PAN-AF  246246219.33.%1341032
3 SIBANYE  373537792075.87.%5521871
4 REINET  333533701043.22.%5303506

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 NIVEUS  17001318-150-8.11.%35442
2 CMH  14001301-70-4.76.%26190
3 CSG  131110-4-2.96.%22800
4 DATATEC  42504005-100-2.30.%915628
5 CROOKES  54905300-110-1.96.%849
6 ASTRAL  90278820-173-1.88.%149419
7 ADCORP  17751760-25-1.39.%148411
8 GROUP-5  14491300-16-1.09.%153115
9 MRPRICE  1452514126-105-0.72.%1163066
10 HCI  103979500-3-0.03.%14644
11 Stor-Age  8808500.64264
12 INVPLC  98639545180.18.%1409977
13 PETMIN  11211210.90.%420
14 ASPEN  25948247284671.83.%1791866
15 ADCOCK  37503544802.18.%170058
16 PPC  12771130524.24.%4162562
17 ANGLO  578050823616.66.%9041699

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Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4042,625.80212.470.50%
Mid Cap61,873.861100.761.81%
Small Cap49,550.57491.391.00%
Resource 2024,087.75679.192.90%
Industrial 2567,626.07125.030.19%
Financial 1513,814.1670.280.51%
Financial & Ind. 3069,990.78197.070.28%
All Share47,532.40321.980.68%
Oil & Gas 7,
Mining 15,000.13654.624.56%
Gold Mining1,552.37137.929.75%
Platinum Mining13.351.048.45%
GENERAL MINING3,786.4188.532.39%
Oil & Gas Producers 38,689.88.000.00%
Basic Materials 16,688.18511.833.16%
Chemicals 20,210.58626.003.20%
Forestry & Paper 49,169.76-793.71-1.59%
Industrial Metals 2,424.73262.9012.16%
Industrials 38,743.20-44.40-0.11%
General Industrials 147.76.310.21%
Consumer Goods 79,897.2840.800.05%
Automobiles & Parts 4,864.06-2.26-0.05%
Household Goods497.62-7-1.35%
Health Care 8,405.5167.980.82%
Beverages 333.61.640.19%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 7,339.7470.460.97%
Personal Goods 1,026.73-1.60-0.16%
Consumer Services 15,493.52108.120.70%
General Retailers 6,905.91-80.21-1.15%
Travel & Leisure 5,139.00-75.91-1.46%
Media 402.495.961.50%
Support Services 2,132.16-75.85-3.44%
Telecommunications 6,743.84-101.12-1.48%
Financials 37,455.72178.140.48%
Banks 5,633.1998.851.79%
Non-life Insurance 45,825.12267.980.59%
Life Insurance 34,859.69-83.16-0.24%
General Financial 4,130.7817.620.43%
Technology 46,328.32-189.72-0.41%
SHARIAH TOP40 2,502.19120.50%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL2,746.82271.01%
COAL MINING6,430.863255.32%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 6,056.10-12-0.20%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,522.32-3-0.17%
CAPPED PROPERTY 519.99-0.43%
RESOURCE 13,315.474083.16%
DIVIDEND PLUS168.7421.09%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 408,056.131161.46%
Capped Top 4022,371.571040.47%
Capped All Share24,039.931620.68%
JSE TABACO 10,942.14600.55%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
28/01/2016CAPPROPDecember 2015 (Final)
29/01/2016CAPREGJune 2016 (Interim)
29/01/2016COMAIRDecember 2015 (Interim)
29/01/2016COMAIRNDecember 2015 (Interim)
29/01/2016HUDACONovember 2015 (Final)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
ECSP C22/01/1605/02/1615/02/16ZAR 1.0548
ECSP A222/01/1605/02/1615/02/16ZAR 0.7671
ECSP A22/01/1605/02/1615/02/16ZAR 0.7671
ECSP C322/01/1605/02/1615/02/16ZAR 1.0548
ECSP A322/01/1605/02/1615/02/16ZAR 0.7671
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
PNR FOODS24/11/1522/01/1601/02/16ZAR 2.3700
TONGAAT16/11/1522/01/1604/02/16ZAR 1.7000
NETCARE23/11/1522/01/1601/02/16ZAR 0.5400
MARSHALL12/01/1622/01/1605/02/16USD 0.0180
TELEMASTR06/01/1622/01/1601/02/16ZAR 0.0100

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
CLSClicks Group Ltd.27/01/2016Confirmed
TMTTrematon Capital Investments Ltd.27/01/2016Confirmed
LHCLife Healthcare Group Holdings Ltd.27/01/2016Confirmed
AWAArrowhead Properties Ltd.27/01/2016Confirmed
AWBArrowhead Properties Ltd.27/01/2016Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
26/01/201617:25TASTE HOLDINGS LIMITED - Dealings in Securities by a Director
26/01/201617:00INVESTEC PLC - Change to the Boards of Investec Plc and Investec Limited
26/01/201617:00NASPERS LIMITED - Director's Dealings
26/01/201616:15TOWER PROPERTY FUND LIMITED - TRP121: Notification of acquisition of beneficial ...
26/01/201616:00PINNACLE HOLDINGS LIMITED - Interest Rate Reset Announcement
26/01/201615:00THE DB X-TRACKER COL INVEST SCHEME - Distribution Finalisation Announcement for ...
26/01/201615:00THE DB X-TRACKER COL INVEST SCHEME - Distribution Finalisation Announcement for ...
26/01/201615:00THE DB X-TRACKER COL INVEST SCHEME - Distribution Finalisation Announcement For ...
26/01/201615:00THE DB X-TRACKER COL INVEST SCHEME - Distribution Finalisation Announcement for ...
26/01/201615:00THE DB X-TRACKER COL INVEST SCHEME - Distribution Finalisation Announcement for ...
26/01/201614:50OLD MUTUAL PLC - Form 8.3 - Public Opening Position Disclosure
26/01/201614:47DEUTSCHE BANK AG - Stub Amendment - DBNPNH
26/01/201614:42DEUTSCHE BANK AG - Stub Amendment - DBNPNG
26/01/201614:40OLD MUTUAL PLC - Form 8.3 - Public Opening Position Disclosure
26/01/201614:30OLD MUTUAL PLC - Form 8.3 - Public Opening Position Disclosure
26/01/201614:30NASPERS LIMITED - Director's Dealings
26/01/201614:30DEUTSCHE BANK AG - Stub Knock-Out - DBNPNF
26/01/201614:20OLD MUTUAL PLC - Form 8.3 - Public Opening Position Disclosure
26/01/201614:00ADCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED - ADCB03 - Full Capital Redemption
26/01/201613:57SYNTHESIS FUNDING LIMITED - New Financial Instrument Listing - SY1281
26/01/201613:30REDEFINE INTERNATIONAL PLC - Annual General Meeting Voting Results
26/01/201613:12ASTRAL FOODS LIMITED - Dealings by associate
26/01/201613:09ASTRAL FOODS LIMITED - Dealings in securities
26/01/201613:00SABMILLER PLC - Notification of transactions of a PDMR
26/01/201612:44Bsi Steel Limited - Dealings In Securities By An Associate Of A Director
26/01/201612:30enX GROUP LIMITED - Specific Issue of Share for Cash
26/01/201612:15INVESTEC AUSTRALIA PROPERTY FUND - Rights offer finalisation announcement
26/01/201612:00CAPITAL & REGIONAL PLC - Holding in company
26/01/201612:00UBS AG - Notification of Adjustment - UBNPNW
26/01/201611:45AFRICAN BANK INVESTMENTS LIMITED - Notice to all Affected Parties (as defined in...
26/01/201611:40TRANSACTION CAPITAL LIMITED - No Change Statement and Notice of Annual General M...
26/01/201611:30TRANSPACO LIMITED - Trading Statement
26/01/201611:00CAPITAL APPRECIATION LIMITED - Announcement regarding Interim Report
26/01/201610:30CORONATION FUND MANAGERS LIMITED - Dealings in securities by CFM Bonus Pool Trus...
26/01/201610:04Csg Holdings Limited - Dealings In Securities By The Csg Share Incentive Trust
26/01/201610:00SABMILLER PLC - Rule 2.10 announcement
26/01/201610:00SPUR CORPORATION LIMITED - Sales update for the 6 months to 31 December 2015
26/01/201610:00ANGLO AMERICAN PLC - Anglo American rough diamond sales value for De Beers first...
26/01/201609:55VALUE GROUP LIMITED - Directors dealing in securities
26/01/201609:36SATRIX COLLECTIVE INVESTMENT SCHEME - Listing of Additional Satrix Fini Securiti...
26/01/201609:25CALGRO M3 HOLDINGS LIMITED - Notification in terms of section 122 (3) of the Com...
26/01/201609:10CAPITEC BANK HOLDINGS LIMITED - Dealing In Securities By An Associate Of A Direc...
26/01/201609:01NEW GOLD ISSUER LIMITED - NGPLT - Partial de-listing of NewGold Platinum Debentu...
26/01/201609:00NEW GOLD ISSUER LIMITED - NGPLD - Partial de-listing of NewGold Palladium Debent...
26/01/201609:00NEWPARK REIT LIMITED - Opening of offer to invited investors to subscribe for sh...
26/01/201609:00CAPITAL & REGIONAL PLC - Changes To Senior Independent Director And Board Commit...
26/01/201609:00Diamondcorp Plc - Lace Diamond Mine Project Update
26/01/201608:45PPC LIMITED - Results of Annual General Meeting (AGM)
26/01/201608:00LIFE HEALTHCARE GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED - Purchase of shares by a director and th...
26/01/201608:00LIFE HEALTHCARE GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED - Dealing in securities by the Life Healt...
26/01/201608:00REINET INVESTMENTS S.C.A - Management statement for the third quarter ended 31 D...
26/01/201608:00BLUE LABEL TELECOMS LIMITED - Renewal of cautionary announcement
26/01/201607:30BALWIN PROPERTIES LIMITED - Dealings in securities by a director
26/01/201607:05HUGE GROUP LIMITED - Renewal of cautionary announcement

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