Tuesday, 12 March 2013 - 20:00
Charts
The Investor and the Rhythm of History In the recently released Berkshire Hathaway annual CEO letter to shareholders, super investor Warren Buffett included the comment that although the immediate future is uncertain, American businesses will do fine over time and stocks, which are tied to business performance will do just as well.
He noted that while there will be periodic setbacks, investors and managers are in a “game that is heavily stacked in their favour.”
Credit Suisse release an annual report titled the “global investment yearbook”. In this, they analyse the returns of the equity and bond market across 22 countries around the world and three regions for periods which extend back to 1900.
The annual Credit Suisse report has quantified just what this outperformance has meant to investors who have had the ability to have a longer term investment horizon.
Credit Suisse also compiled an aggregate index across all 22 countries weighted by the starting year equity market capitalisation.
The results are interesting. On the aggregate index including the US, the long run (113 year) real return (i.e. after inflation) for an investment into equities has been measured at 5% pa and 1.8% pa for bonds. When measured from the start of the 21st century, however, global equities (with the high weighting to the US) have given 0% real return pa and bonds 6.1% pa.
Figure 1 – Including the USA
Because the USA comprises such a large percentage of the weight in this index, they also compiled a data series excluding the USA in order to eliminate the possible “success” bias of the USA. Reducing the number of contributing countries to 21, the real return on world equity markets ex-USA comes down to 4.4% pa and global bonds just 1.4% pa.
It is also interesting to note that the return has been similar to the index that includes the USA over the last 50 years and since 2000.
Figure 2 – Excluding the USA
According to their analysis, the biggest stock market in 1900 was the UK, which comprised 25% of their index, while the USA made up 15%. By the end of 2012, the UK had shrunk to 8% and the USA had grown to 45%. South Africa had shrunk from 3% to 1% of the total world stock market.
It is always important to track long run history in an attempt to try and understand the future. As Mark Twain supposedly quoted, "History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.”
Kind regards,
Ian de Lange
www.seedinvestments.co.za
info@seedinvestments.co.za
021 914 4966
Tue, 12 Mar 2013
Top News
Revenue jumped to R1.38 billion (R1.37 billion) and profit from operating activities rose to R405.6 million (R380.1 million). Profit for the year tumbled to R302.1 million (R341.8 million). Headline earnings per share fell to 473.2c per ordinary share (562.4c per ordinary share).
Divide Full story
Revenue was up 45.5% to R2.4 billion (R1.6 billion). Gross margin was higher at R997.1 million (R716.7 million). Net attributable profit was more than 50% larger at R163.5 million (R106.5 million). In addition, headline earnings per share grew by 35.2% to 171.5cps (126.9cps).
Outlook
EO Full story |
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Markets | U.S. stock index futures rose
on Friday, putting the S&P 500 on track to rise for a sixth
straight session and the Dow. . . Full story | | British equities nudged up to
fresh 5-year peaks on Friday, with investors looking to U.S.
jobs data to show improvement in the world's. . . Full story | | European shares rose on Friday
as investors anticipated a strong U.S. jobs figure, with
unprecedented central bank monetary policy supporting equities
around multi-year highs.. . . Full story | | World shares hit their highest
level since June 2008 and the dollar touched a fresh 3-1/2-year
high against the yen on Friday, ahead. . . Full story |
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| Britain's top shares advanced on
Friday in the run-up to the U.S. February jobs report, as
investors looked for more signs that the. . . Full story | | European shares rose early on
Friday with investors positioning themselves cautiously for a
potentially stronger reading of U.S. jobs figures, while
unprecedented central bank. . . Full story | | Hong Kong shares rose more
than 1 percent on Friday, lifting both key indexes up for the
week, with growth-sensitive counters buoyed by. . . Full story | | Gold hovered around $1,580 an
ounce on Friday, ahead of the release of a key U.S. job market
report, after recent upbeat data. . . Full story |
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Company News | Shareholders are advised that Mr Adrian Lee Bock has resigned from the Board of Trustco, effective 31 March 2013, having completed. . . Full story | | The board announced the appointment of Louis von Zeuner as a non-executive director of the Company with effect from 1 April. . . Full story | | The financial effects of the proposed empowerment transaction, including the acquisition of the acquisition properties and the specific issue of linked. . . Full story | | Freda Evans resigned as Chief Financial Officer in September 2012 and Aarti Takoordeen, joined the JSE on 1 February 2013, as. . . Full story |
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| Vukile has proposed implementing a sustainable and commercially driven black economic transformation transaction through the acquisition of an approximate R1.4 billion. . . Full story | | Notice was given that a shareholders' meeting of ELB ordinary shareholders will be held at 09h30 in the Boardroom of ELB. . . Full story | | The board would like to advise shareholders that the basic earnings per linked unit is expected to improve from (0.00) cents. . . Full story | | Shareholders of Barloworld are advised that management of the company, will be attending the Merrill Lynch conference at Sun City. The. . . Full story |
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Company Results | Revenue increased by 11% to R4.9 billion (R4.4 billion). Gross profit rose 9% to R2.2 billion (R2.1 billion). Operating profit before. . . Full story | | Turnover rose to R85.4 billion (R83.3 billion) whilst gross profit jumped to R32.4 billion (R29.4 billion). Operating profit shrunk to R18.9. . . Full story | | Total income for the interim period jumped by 22% to R365.5 million (2011: R300.4 million). Profit from operations rose to R88.7. . . Full story | | Revenue increased by 22.8% to R646.3 million (R526.1 million). Operating profit rose by 35.5% to R59.2 million (R43.7 million). Total comprehensive. . . Full story |
World Markets (Spot Prices)
Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | JSE Overall | 17:00 | 40952.46 | -31.00 | -0.08% | JSE Top 40 | 17:00 | 36374.35 | -16.00 | -0.05% | JSE Gold | 17:00 | 1950.97 | 29.00 | 1.56% | JSE Financial | 17:00 | 30918.08 | -217.00 | -0.70% | JSE Industrial | 17:00 | 50446.67 | -200.00 | -0.40% | JSE Indust 25 | 17:00 | 43534.62 | -175.00 | -0.40% | JSE Resource | 17:00 | 50766.46 | 510.00 | 1.02% | DJ Futures | 19:34 | 14365.00 | -16.00 | -0.11% | DJ Ind | 19:58 | 14436.08 | -11.21 | -0.08% | SP 500 | 19:58 | 1551.10 | -5.12 | -0.33% | Nasdaq | 19:58 | 3238.29 | -14.58 | -0.45% | FTSE 100 | 18:35 | 6510.62 | 6.99 | 0.11% | DAX | 19:08 | 7966.12 | -18.17 | -0.23% | CAC40 | 19:08 | 3839.97 | 3.70 | 0.10% | Nikkei | 08:38 | 12314.81 | -34.24 | -0.28% | Shanghai | 09:28 | 2286.60 | -23.99 | -1.04% | Hang-Seng | 10:28 | 22890.60 | -200.22 | -0.87% | All Ords | 07:40 | 5128.60 | -31.40 | -0.61% | NZSE 50 | 08:34 | 4378.76 | 12.18 | 0.28% |
| | Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | Gold $ | 19:58 | 1592.30 | 11.11 | 0.70% | Gold R | 19:58 | 14604.89 | 238.12 | 1.66% | Gold R/kg | 19:58 | 469766 | 8700 | 1.89% | Silver $ | 19:59 | 29.1700 | .1930 | 0.67% | Platinum $ | 19:59 | 1590.50 | -8.25 | -0.52% | Palladium $ | 19:59 | 772.30 | -6.00 | -0.77% | R157 | 17:32 | 5.37 | .01 | 0.28% | R204 | 17:39 | 6.09 | .01 | 0.16% | R207 | 17:35 | 6.34 | -.03 | -0.47% | Brent Crude | 19:58 | 109.96 | -.89 | -0.80% | Rand / Dollar | 19:58 | 9.1758 | 0.0913 | 1.01% | Rand / Pound | 19:55 | 13.6294 | 0.1015 | 0.75% | Rand / Euro | 19:55 | 11.9428 | 0.0847 | 0.71% | Rand / NZD | 19:58 | 7.5716 | 0.0588 | 0.78% | Rand / AUD | 19:55 | 9.4683 | 0.1255 | 1.34% | Yen / Dollar | 19:59 | 95.9300 | -0.3630 | -0.38% | Euro / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.7679 | 0.0016 | 0.21% | Dollar / Euro | 19:59 | 1.3020 | -0.0024 | -0.18% | Pound / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.6713 | 0.0012 | 0.18% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today
Trading Statistics
Date | Adv. | Decl. | Unch. | Actives | Volume | Value | Trades | Orders |
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12/03/2013 | 178 | 167 | 73 | 418 | 190,868,621 | R13,143,764,211 | 152790 | 1569271 | 11/03/2013 | 213 | 122 | 75 | 410 | 208,663,090 | R13,726,712,283 | 142149 | 1387435 | 08/03/2013 | 207 | 138 | 77 | 422 | 222,629,503 | R13,780,571,218 | 148073 | 1687512 | 07/03/2013 | 201 | 152 | 74 | 427 | 223,487,735 | R13,647,973,973 | 159652 | 1730303 | 06/03/2013 | 185 | 154 | 88 | 427 | 237,624,362 | R15,655,477,497 | 169820 | 1485971 |
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Index Summary Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Top 40 | 36,374.00 | -16.00 | -0.05% | Industrial | 50,446.00 | -200.00 | -0.40% | Mid Cap | 56,456.00 | -159.00 | -0.28% | Small Cap | 43,818.00 | 43.00 | 0.10% | Resource 20 | 50,766.00 | 510.00 | 1.02% | Industrial 25 | 43,534.00 | -175.00 | -0.40% | Financial 15 | 11,631.00 | -86.00 | -0.74% | Financial & Ind. 30 | 47,354.00 | -246.00 | -0.52% | All Share | 40,952.00 | -31.00 | -0.08% | Oil & Gas | 31,270.00 | 433.00 | 1.40% | Mining | 31,978.00 | 289.00 | 0.91% | Gold Mining | 1,950.00 | 29.00 | 1.56% | Platinum Mining | 50.00 | .00 | 1.70% | GENERAL MINING | 8,700.00 | 84.00 | 0.98% | Oil & Gas Producers | 16,813.00 | 233.00 | 1.41% | Basic Materials | 27,853.00 | 234.00 | 0.85% | Chemicals | 19,333.00 | -45.00 | -0.23% | Forestry & Paper | 21,387.00 | 42.00 | 0.20% | Industrial Metals | 27,903.00 | 209.00 | 0.76% | Industrials | 41,381.00 | -151.00 | -0.36% | General Industrials | 119.00 | .00 | 0.67% | Consumer Goods | 46,650.00 | 88.00 | 0.19% | Automobiles & Parts | 7,615.00 | -3.00 | -0.05% | Household Goods | 173.00 | -1 | -0.76% | Health Care | 60,978.00 | -115.00 | -0.19% | Beverages | 161.00 | .00 | 0.48% |
| | Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Food Producers | 70,831.00 | -1015.00 | -1.41% | Personal Goods | 751.00 | 7.00 | 1.03% | Consumer Services | 83,226.00 | -1095.00 | -1.30% | General Retailers | 62,913.00 | -848.00 | -1.33% | Travel & Leisure | 5,349.00 | 8.00 | 0.17% | Media | 136.00 | -2.00 | -1.56% | Support Services | 2,400.00 | 35.00 | 1.52% | Telecommunications | 83,571.00 | -1056.00 | -1.25% | Financials | 30,918.00 | -217.00 | -0.70% | Banks | 53,450.00 | -605.00 | -1.12% | Non-life Insurance | 54,247.00 | 531.00 | 0.99% | Life Insurance | 28,698.00 | -145.00 | -0.50% | General Financial | 2,868.00 | -22.00 | -0.79% | Technology | 37,029.00 | 52.00 | 0.14% | SHARIAH TOP40 | 3,475.00 | 19 | 0.56% | FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL | 3,602.00 | 17 | 0.49% | COAL MINING | 21,205.00 | -524 | -2.41% | FTSE JSE Fledgling | 5,934.00 | 6 | 0.11% | FTSE/JSE Alt X | 902.00 | -20 | -2.25% | SA LISTED PROPERTY | 525.00 | | -0.13% | CAPPED PROPERTY | 417.00 | | -0.09% | RESOURCE | 27,899.00 | 273 | 0.99% | DIVIDEND PLUS | 222.00 | 0 | -0.32% | FTSE/JSE RAFI 40 | 8,366.00 | -6 | -0.07% | Capped Top 40 | 19,179.00 | -15 | -0.08% | Capped All Share | 20,722.00 | -17 | -0.08% | JSE TABACO | 6,132.00 | -14 | -0.23% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes** Code | Company Name | Status | Updated | IPL | IMPERIAL HOLDINGS LTD | HOLD | 21/01/2013 | BIL | BHP BILLITON PLC | HOLD | 21/01/2013 | TRU | TRUWORTHS INTERNATIONAL L... | SELL | 21/01/2013 | AMS | ANGLO AMERICAN PLATINUM C... | HOLD | 21/01/2013 | ANG | ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LIMITED | HOLD | 21/01/2013 |
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Results Expected** Expected | Company Name | Fin. Date | 13/03/2013 | AFGRI | December 2012 (Interim) | 13/03/2013 | CONTROL | December 2012 (Final) | 13/03/2013 | EASTPLATS | December 2012 (Final) | 13/03/2013 | ELBGROUP | December 2012 (Interim) | 13/03/2013 | ELBGROUP6 | December 2012 (Interim) |
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Recent Dividends** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | SASFIN-P | 11/03/2013 | 27/03/2013 | 08/04/2013 | R 3.5565 | BEE-SASOL | 11/03/2013 | 05/04/2013 | 15/04/2013 | R 5.7000 | SASOL | 11/03/2013 | 05/04/2013 | 15/03/2013 | R 5.7000 | SASFIN | 11/03/2013 | 05/04/2013 | 15/04/2013 | R 0.6000 | SHOPCONV | 11/03/2013 | 22/03/2013 | 03/04/2013 | R 325.0000 |
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Ex Div** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | KUMBA | 12/02/2013 | 08/03/2013 | 18/03/2013 | R 12.5000 | DSY B PREF | 21/02/2013 | 08/03/2013 | 18/03/2013 | R 4.3123 | TRUWTHS | 20/02/2013 | 08/03/2013 | 18/03/2013 | R 2.0400 | CITYLDG | 13/02/2013 | 08/03/2013 | 18/03/2013 | R 1.7600 | SHOPRIT | 19/02/2013 | 08/03/2013 | 18/03/2013 | R 1.2300 |
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Upcoming AGMs** Code | Company Name | Date | Status |
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