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 The Sharenet Daily 
Tuesday, 17 February 2015 - 20:00
Top News
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)

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Seed Weekly - Investing Offshore

When the rand weakens to levels not seen for years, like it has over the past few months, clients/investors often start to ask whether they should send more of their hard earned investments offshore, to protect from further weakness. This is especially true if backed by political turbulence (as experienced last week). The chart below shows the ZAR/USD exchange rate over the past 30 years, we are now near the lows of 2001.

It is interesting to note that despite the continued rand weakness since mid 2011 the rand is still some way off, when adjusting the currency for the difference in inflation between South Africa and the US, to the levels that we saw in 2001 and 2008.

Economic theory dictates that a currency should depreciate relative to another currency if the country experiences higher inflation, known as Purchasing Power Parity, in order for it to remain at ‘fair value’. As South Africa has higher inflation than the US, it is normal for the currency to gradually weaken versus the USD over time. The chart below shows the ZAR vs the USD and the fair value exchange rate over the past 30 years. Note that we are currently on the cusp of being 1 standard deviation away from fair value, compared to 2001 and 2008 when we exceeded this level.

At the height of the currency panic, ending in 2001, many investors took their capital offshore and invested into developed equities. This, on the basis that developed market stock exchanges (the US in particular) had done extremely well in the 90’s and also that the rand was a ‘one way bet’. It is scary to note that some 13 years later an investor that made this decision has still not recouped their capital in real terms (inflation adjusted), is some way off cash returns and has been left in the dust when compared to local equity (all adjusted for currency movements). The chart below shows the performance of various assets over this period.

It is always best for investors to remain rational and invest looking forward, rather than based on what’s happened in the rear view mirror. In this regard Seed, and most South African asset managers, have been overweight global assets for the last few years to take advantage of the possibility of the currency moving from a strong to weak level, based partially on the fact that the rand was relatively too strong.

It is important to note that we are unable to predict the future, and therefore spend little time looking into crystal balls. We rather spend our time looking at valuations and assessing probabilities of investment outcomes based on the current information at hand. We then build diversified portfolios that are able to withstand the eventuality of multiple scenarios. It is also important to note that there are differences when compared to the end of 2001, mainly that global equities currently offer much better prospects of returns, due to better valuations when compared to the height of the Tech Bubble.

Seed Funds remain overweight global assets, but we are close to the point where the risks of significant currency strengthening outweigh the risks of a currency blow out. As/if we reach this point our Funds will be incrementally adjusted to take advantage of the opportunity presented (i.e. repatriating investments, or hedging out currency exposure). We believe that investing is a probability vocation; in this regard we continually seek to get the odds in our favour and size our investments appropriately.

Take care,

Mike Browne

021 914 4966

Tue, 17 Feb 2015
Top News
South Africa's rand firmed to its strongest level in seven days on Tuesday as the dollar slipped and hopes of a compromise preventing Greece's exit from the eurozone were dashed.  Full story

Local markets There were losses across the board on the JSE today, led by gold mining shares which tumbled 4.25%, with the All Share falling 0.31%.  Full story
Pro-Russian rebels and government forces fought street-to-street in a strategic town in east Ukraine on Tuesday and refused to pull back their heavy guns, all but scuppering hopes that a European-brokered peace deal will end months of conflict.  Full story
A Taliban suicide bomber on Tuesday killed six people and himself in a brazen attack on police headquarters in Pakistan's eastern city of Lahore, in what militants called a revenge bid for the recent hangings of colleagues.  Full story
Kurdish militants demanded concrete steps from Turkey to advance a fragile peace process on Tuesday, accusing the ruling AK Party of stalling and warning that the negotiations could break down.  Full story
The euro recovered from initial losses and gold fell to one-month lows on Tuesday on signs Greek banks will continue to get emergency. . .  Full story
Gold and silver fell to six-week lows on signs that Greek banks will continue to get emergency funding despite a breakdown in debt. . .  Full story
Hong Kong's main stock index rose for the fourth day in a row on Tuesday, taking cues from mainland shares, but volume. . .  Full story
China shares rose to three-week highs on Tuesday, underpinned by gains in property firms after data showed some signs that housing prices were. . .  Full story

Japan's Nikkei share average fell on Tuesday, retreating from a near eight-year high after talks between Greece and euro zone finance ministers on. . .  Full story
Australian shares declined on Tuesday after one of the country's big banks disappointed investors with its earnings result, cooling a red-hot sector that helped. . .  Full story
Global shares hit their highest since September and the euro firmed on Monday with investors cautiously optimistic that euro zone finance ministers would reach. . .  Full story
Gold rose for a third straight session on Monday, due to a weaker dollar as a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on. . .  Full story
SA Business
South Africa plans to improve its pipelines and ports to allow for more gas imports for use in power generation, the acting director general of the department of energy said on. . .  Full story
The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) has suspended the trading of shares in Zimbabwe's hotel group Meikles Africa to allow an investigation on whether the firm overstated a debt it is owed. . .  Full story
South Africa's biggest construction firm, Aveng Ltd, reported a drop in half-year profit on Tuesday, hit by a slowdown in public building projects and spending in the mining sector as well. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0052833.48-162.41-0.31%
JSE Top 4017:0046714.30-108.14-0.23%
JSE Gold17:001400.50-62.12-4.25%
JSE Financial17:0043674.23-193.77-0.44%
JSE Industrial17:0073677.39-96.29-0.13%
JSE Indust 2517:0065283.61-99.69-0.15%
JSE Resource17:0046160.02-250.94-0.54%
DJ Futures19:5217990.0045.000.25%
DJ Ind19:5818018.15-1.20-0.01%
SP 50019:582096.78-0.21-0.01%
FTSE 10018:286892.0635.010.51%
All Ords07:385822.30-27.20-0.46%
NZSE 5006:485750.21-8.03-0.14%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold $19:591206.60-23.99-1.95%
Gold R19:5814014.54-315.51-2.20%
Gold R/kg19:58450642-9617-2.09%
Silver $19:5916.3860-.9040-5.23%
Platinum $19:591174.40-27.60-2.30%
Palladium $19:59783.98-2.22-0.28%
Brent Crude19:5861.163.776.57%
Rand / Dollar19:5911.6156-0.0282-0.24%
Rand / Pound19:5517.8106-0.0477-0.27%
Rand / Euro19:5513.26260.04600.35%
Rand / NZD19:588.74950.02590.30%
Rand / AUD19:559.08940.04330.48%
Yen / Dollar19:59119.09000.62000.52%
Euro / Dollar19:550.8755-0.0057-0.65%
Dollar / Euro19:591.14170.00710.62%
Pound / Dollar19:550.6508-0.0001-0.02%

Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today

Trading Statistics
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 SEKUNJALO  1502015.38.%3992
2 BEE-SASOL  39500450012.86.%209
3 DENEB  2002212.36.%336798
4 CSG  185148.19.%35908
5 AVENG  17101237.75.%1714734
6 ATLATSA  235156.82.%47500
7 GRINDROD  19551146.19.%2637003
8 POYNTING  190105.56.%163224
9 ALEXANDER  1056555.49.%1219563
10 SPANJRD  525255.00.%15
11 OCEANA  113755254.84.%10325
12 HUGE  220104.76.%20000
13 ONELOGIX  552244.55.%40617
14 CONVERGE  21594.37.%263811
15 CLIENTELE  1775744.35.%400018
16 PNR-FOODS  159376574.30.%321460
17 FORTRESSB  26501003.92.%359333
18 MRHLD  1870703.89.%2802500
19 MASTDRILL  1250373.05.%15702
20 TRNSHEX  350102.94.%93701

Click here for more Major Moves...
Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 RARE  110-280-71.79.%7094
2 CENRAND  306-29-8.66.%1901
3 HARMONY  2850-250-8.06.%1001657
4 ELLIES   126-11-8.03.%1119640
5 DIAMONDCP  136-9-6.21.%2000
6 THARISA  600-35-5.51.%18077
7 DRDGOLD  259-13-4.78.%815873
8 COMAIR  519-26-4.77.%346183
9 ANGGOLD  13830-657-4.54.%1836557
10 SOVFOOD  875-41-4.48.%83732
11 GFIELDS  5321-225-4.06.%2438910
12 IMPLATS  7500-300-3.85.%1407713
13 ASTRAL  18299-700-3.68.%193686
14 YORK  246-9-3.53.%45500
15 SAPPI  4806-169-3.40.%830418
16 LONMIN  2934-103-3.39.%540815
17 RCL  1789-61-3.30.%61460
18 ASSORE  16712-535-3.10.%68081
19 EFFICIENT  480-15-3.03.%10
20 EHSV  290-9-3.01.%33163

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 SEKUNJALO  1501502015.38.%3992
2 ALEXANDER  10561075555.49.%1219563
3 SPANJRD  525525255.00.%15
4 PNR-FOODS  15937163856574.30.%321460
5 TELKOM  782879001281.66.%1343162
6 JSE  1233812500780.64.%62507
7 ADVTECH  979101050.51.%1089770
8 CAPITEC  39800400961500.38.%81153
9 FAIRVEST  1801840.35000
10 FIRSTRAND  52855329-14-0.26.%10489020
11 RMBH  67516800-46-0.68.%823635
12 NEPI  1307613411-104-0.79.%155265

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 RARE  110110-280-71.79.%7094
2 PPC  18511805110.60.%9775479
3 MRHLD  18701701703.89.%2802500

Click here for more Major Moves...

Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4046,714.30-108.14-0.23%
Mid Cap74,031.20-609.97-0.82%
Small Cap60,058.81-83.14-0.14%
Resource 2046,160.02-250.94-0.54%
Industrial 2565,283.61-99.69-0.15%
Financial 1516,740.67-62.40-0.37%
Financial & Ind. 3069,990.98-124.92-0.18%
All Share52,833.48-162.41-0.31%
Oil & Gas 35,803.59-217.10-0.60%
Mining 27,783.85-187.67-0.67%
Gold Mining1,400.50-62.12-4.25%
Platinum Mining36.08-1.03-2.78%
GENERAL MINING8,016.997.730.10%
Oil & Gas Producers 19,250.93-116.73-0.60%
Basic Materials 25,317.40-194.26-0.76%
Chemicals 22,254.04-171.26-0.76%
Forestry & Paper 37,992.38-554.27-1.44%
Industrial Metals 13,344.31-201.25-1.49%
Industrials 48,071.90-60.38-0.13%
General Industrials 168.02-.62-0.37%
Consumer Goods 64,843.95239.620.37%
Automobiles & Parts 7,042.4722.650.32%
Household Goods455.6930.58%
Health Care 11,286.15-73.12-0.64%
Beverages 216.671.290.60%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 9,430.8460.980.65%
Personal Goods 1,024.93-2.00-0.19%
Consumer Services 15,407.00-87.94-0.57%
General Retailers 83,246.43-1583.98-1.87%
Travel & Leisure 6,558.35-71.59-1.08%
Media 358.25.140.04%
Support Services 2,851.21-.01-0.00%
Telecommunications 10,630.68-13.25-0.12%
Financials 43,674.23-193.77-0.44%
Banks 76,832.34-193.45-0.25%
Non-life Insurance 59,211.52-1020.89-1.69%
Life Insurance 41,713.21-135.60-0.32%
General Financial 4,054.7916.750.41%
Technology 53,967.98-202.87-0.37%
SHARIAH TOP40 3,731.36-8-0.22%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,995.11-10-0.24%
COAL MINING13,890.76-78-0.56%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 6,816.78-24-0.34%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,500.4540.28%
CAPPED PROPERTY 553.68-1.37%
RESOURCE 25,365.43-168-0.66%
DIVIDEND PLUS244.15-1-0.35%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 4010,070.52-43-0.42%
Capped Top 4024,946.28-61-0.24%
Capped All Share26,798.10-82-0.31%
JSE TABACO 8,315.44620.75%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
18/02/2015ARCMITTALSeptember 2014 (Q)
18/02/2015BLUETELNovember 2014 (Interim)
18/02/2015CITYLDGDecember 2014 (Interim)
18/02/2015DISCOVERYDecember 2014 (Interim)
18/02/2015DSY B PREFDecember 2014 (Interim)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
DISTELL16/02/1506/03/1516/03/15ZAR 1.5800
ITLTILE16/02/1506/03/1516/03/15ZAR 0.1200
NEWWVEGBP13/02/1527/02/1531/03/15ZAR 0.0200
ANGLO13/02/1513/03/1528/04/15USD 0.5300
WOOLIES12/02/1527/02/1509/03/15ZAR 0.9650
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
IMPL CONV29/01/1513/02/1523/02/15ZAR 250.0000
FIRSTRANDB-P27/01/1513/02/1523/02/15ZAR 3.4851
CAPPROP28/01/1513/02/1523/02/15ZAR 0.4422
SEKUNJALO04/11/1413/02/1523/02/15ZAR 0.0200

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
AHLAH-Vest Ltd.19/02/2015Confirmed
RDFRedefine Properties Ltd.19/02/2015Confirmed
ACEAccentuate Ltd.20/02/2015Confirmed
QFHQuantum Foods Holdings Ltd.20/02/2015Confirmed
DIBDipula Income Fund Ltd.23/02/2015Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
17/02/201517:50NORTHAM PLATINUM LIMITED - Notice of general meeting
17/02/201517:30AFRIMAT LIMITED - Dealing in securities by an associate of a director of Afrima...
17/02/201517:20GIJIMA GROUP LIMITED - Firm intention by Yebo Guma Investments Pty Ltd to acquir...
17/02/201517:15GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES LIMITED - GRT02 - Interest Rate Reset
17/02/201517:05ANGLO AMERICAN PLC - Anglo American Share Incentive Plan SIP
17/02/201517:00SOUTHERN VIEW FINANCE LTD - Disclosable event: Significant Litigation Proceeding...
17/02/201517:00CHEMICAL SPECIALITIES LIMITED - Chemspec Group Restructure Cautionary Renewal An...
17/02/201516:35THE SPAR GROUP LIMITED - Acceptance of shares by directors and Company Secretary
17/02/201516:30SABVEST LIMITED - Trading Statement
17/02/201516:27TRENCOR LIMITED - Trading statement
17/02/201516:25SYNTHESIS FUNDING LIMITED - New Financial Instrument Listing - SY1227
17/02/201516:24INVICTA HOLDINGS LIMITED - Directors dealing in securities
17/02/201515:56SYNTHESIS FUNDING LIMITED - New Financial Instrument Listing - SY1226
17/02/201515:50WOOLWORTHS HOLDINGS LIMITED - Correction announcement: Dealings in securities by...
17/02/201515:47ROCKCASTLE GLOBAL REAL EST CO LTD - Correction announcement: dealings in securit...
17/02/201515:04INDWA INVESTMENTS LIMITED - INA509 - Full Capital Redemption
17/02/201515:00REBOSIS PROPERTY FUND LIMITED - No change statement and notice of annual general...
17/02/201514:40OLD MUTUAL PLC - Form 8.3 Disclosure
17/02/201514:36IVUZI INVESTMENTS LIMITED - IVA509 - Full Capital Redemption
17/02/201514:34IVUZI INVESTMENTS LIMITED - IVA508 - Full Capital Redemption
17/02/201514:05DEUTSCHE BANK AG - Termination of Listing - TOPDWV
17/02/201514:00KAP INDUSTRIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED - Unaudited results for the six months ended 31 ...
17/02/201513:30GRINDROD LIMITED - Trading Statement
17/02/201513:04EMIRA PROPERTY FUND - EPFC11 - Full Capital Redemption
17/02/201512:30SABMILLER PLC - Block Listing SABMiller plc. South African Executive Share Opti...
17/02/201512:25STANDARD BANK OF SOUTH AFRICA LD - SCIB: The Standard Bank Of South Africa Limit...
17/02/201512:20STANDARD BANK OF SOUTH AFRICA LD - SCIB: The Standard Bank Of South Africa Limit...
17/02/201512:19STANDARD BANK OF SOUTH AFRICA LD - SCIB: The Standard Bank Of South Africa Limit...
17/02/201512:16STANDARD BANK OF SOUTH AFRICA LD - SCIB: The Standard Bank Of South Africa Limit...
17/02/201512:05STANDARD BANK OF SOUTH AFRICA LD - SCIB: The Standard Bank of South Africa Limit...
17/02/201512:00COMAIR LIMITED - Unaudited Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December ...
17/02/201511:57HOWDEN AFRICA HOLDINGS LIMITED - Results of written resolution in terms of secti...
17/02/201511:24FORTRESS INCOME FUND LIMITED - Dealing in securities by an associate of a direct...
17/02/201511:19INVESTEC BANK LIMITED - KIOIHF- final cash dividend
17/02/201511:15RBA HOLDINGS LIMITED - Appointment of director and member of Audit and Risk Comm...
17/02/201510:54FREEDOM PROPERTY FUND LTD - Dealing In Securities By A Director
17/02/201510:00NET 1 UEPS TECHNOLOGIES INC - Zazoo sponsors R1 million worth of VCPAY vouchers ...
17/02/201509:19ADVANCED HEALTH LIMITED - Trading Statement
17/02/201509:00SOVEREIGN FOOD INVESTMENTS LIMITED - Trading statement
17/02/201508:17EOH HOLDINGS LIMITED - Voluntary announcement
17/02/201507:21ASTRAL FOODS LIMITED - Updated General Trading Statement
17/02/201507:06ANGLO AMERICAN PLC - Total voting rights
17/02/201507:05CURRO HOLDINGS LIMITED - Reviewed provisional results for the year ended 31 Dece...
17/02/201507:05ANGLO AMERICAN PLC - Directors / PDMRs interests
17/02/201507:05AVENG LIMITED - Unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements fo...
17/02/201507:05GOLIATH GOLD MINING LIMITED - Notification in terms of Section 122(3) of the Com...

Click here for more SENS news