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 The Sharenet Daily 
Wednesday, 10 August 2016 - 20:00
 
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News
Top News
Markets
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
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The past 12 months have been eventful. Some big events were positive while many others where less so, to say the least. We sometimes refer to these big once-off, unpredicted events as black swan events. The most recent black swan was Brexit. Although the topic no longer dominates dinner party conversations, it remains highly relevant as negotiations are ongoing and the outcome still uncertain. What we do know is that following the landmark referendum the value of listed UK properties fell, the...  Full story
Seed Weekly - Black Swans & Ugly Ducklings

The past 12 months have been eventful. Some big events were positive while many others where less so, to say the least. We sometimes refer to these big once-off, unpredicted events as black swan events.

The most recent black swan was Brexit. Although the topic no longer dominates dinner party conversations, it remains highly relevant as negotiations are ongoing and the outcome still uncertain. What we do know is that following the landmark referendum the value of listed UK properties fell, the Pound depreciated and UK interest rates were dropped to their lowest level in history on the back of renewed growth uncertainty. There were also a few days of panic in which most equity markets across the world were sold down, however most have since recovered.

On the day the results were announced you either owned assets, such as London property or the Pound, or you didn't. If you held these on the day you would have suffered a loss which has not recovered much of its value since. Nothing you did after the fact could change this. Panicked selling or emotional reactions following Brexit would most likely have exacerbated your headache.

South Africa experienced its own black swan event in December last year when our finance minister was replaced without reason or forewarning, twice. It caused the value of the Rand to plummet and government bond yields to spike. Some panicked and decided to sell their Rands after the sudden drop when the value was at a historic weak point. Since then, the Rand actually strengthened against most developed market currencies, and many who made the decision to sell the Rand immediately after the tumultuous 3 days in December can chalk up the loss to a sub-optimal, panicked decision.

Of course we aren't, for the purposes of this article, considering the merits of investing in hard currency or even touching on the topic of how much hard currency one should hold. We are just looking purely at the decision to sell an asset following a black swan event and the loss suffered because of this.
Not all black swan events are negative. Every SAB shareholder will forever remember the day the merger with ABInbev was announced and the share price shot up by +- 27% in one day. The story is similar to the above negative black swan events, either you owned the asset on the day and made a huge profit or you didn't. What made the SAB black swan event different, was the fact that since the announcement of the merger the Rand share price has in fact increased, although it came with significant downside risk if the deal didn't go through.

Before the announcement of the merger there wasn't much excitement about SAB. The share was expensive and trading within a band. It was by no means a bad company to invest into as it was profitable and generating cash, but nothing really ground-breaking was going on to get investors excited. The proverbial ugly duckling matured into a graceful white swan.

Events such as these, whether positive or negative, will always be a part of investing. It undoubtedly changes the fundamentals and outlook, and you should always look to re-evaluate your positions based on the revised outlook. Take a deep breath, and make the calculation whether holding onto the asset is worthwhile despite the recent shock, and if the asset is trading at fair value. When making decisions in a fit of panic, you will almost always find yourself looking back to discover an even bigger negative effect. It is as hard as it is simple - accept what happened as a sunk cost and move on.

Kind regards,

Stefan Keeve

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Wed, 10 Aug 2016
Top News
[IMAGE]
Local markets  Full story

[IMAGE]
More workers at South African state-run power utility Eskom joined a strike over pay, their union said on Wednesday, in defiance of a court order preventing the industrial action at the state-run firm. The company has branded the stoppage by thousands of National Union of Mineworke  Full story
Pressure from high-profile Republicans and rank-and-file voters mounted on Wednesday to reject Donald Trump’s candidacy as his campaign dealt with fallout from his remark that gun rights activists could stop Hillary Clinton from nominating liberal U.S. Supreme Court justices.  Full story
A bus carrying journalists at the Rio Games was hit by gunfire on a highway between Olympic venues on Tuesday, witnesses said. No one was seriously injured in the incident.  Full story
Brazil's Senate met on Tuesday to vote on whether to indict President Dilma Rousseff on charges of breaking budget laws, in the long-awaited start of the trial phase of impeachment proceedings against her.  Full story
 
SA Business
Workers went on strike at various power plants ran by South African state-run power utility Eskom despite a court order prohibiting union members from downing tools, the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) said on Wednesday.. . .  Full story
South Africa's rand touched a new 10-month high against the dollar early on Wednesday and government bonds strengthened as investors hunted for yield in riskier assets. * The rand touched 13.3520 versus dollar earlier in thesession, its strongest. . .  Full story

Shares in South African construction firm Aveng jumped more than 13 percent before paring gains on Wednesday after it said it expects to halve its headline loss per share as it completes loss-making contracts.. . .  Full story
South Africa's state-run power utility Eskom said on Wednesday it had suspended two senior managers as part of an investigation into the leaking of documents in a court case involving Koeberg, Africa's only nuclear power plant.. . .  Full story
Company News
The board of directors of KAP announce that agreement has been reached between KAP and the shareholders of Safripol Holdings Pty Ltd (Safripol), in terms of which a nominated wholly-owned subsidiary of KAP (the Purchaser) will, subject to the conditions precedent. . .  Full story
Old Mutual announced that it has agreed to sell Old Mutual Wealth Italy (OMWI) to ERGO Italia, owned by Cinven. The consideration for the transaction is EUR278 million in cash, plus interest to completion. The transaction is subject to usual regulatory. . .  Full story
Company Results
Net rental and related income increased to EUR64.4 million (2015: EUR46.9 million). Profit before net finance dropped to EUR74.0 million (2015: EUR120.7 million). Profit for the period attributable to equity holders decreased to EUR66.9 million (2015: EUR115.6 million). Furthermore, headline earnings per share came in at EUR16.81 cents per share (2015: EUR18.01 cents per share). Distribution The company declares a distribution of 18.68 euro cents per share for the six months ended 30. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0052218.61-268.04-0.51%
JSE Top 4017:0045132.06-378.59-0.83%
JSE Gold17:002792.41-.59-0.02%
JSE Financial17:0042249.66-42.82-0.10%
JSE Industrial17:0076139.63-351.67-0.46%
JSE Indust 2517:0068018.21-420.86-0.61%
JSE Resource17:0031791.25-429.54-1.33%
DJ Futures19:5218443.00-23.00-0.12%
DJ Ind19:5818504.08-28.97-0.16%
SP 50019:582176.32-5.42-0.25%
Nasdaq19:585207.10-18.38-0.35%
FTSE 10017:086858.967.660.11%
DAX18:0810650.89-42.01-0.39%
CAC4018:084452.01-16.06-0.36%
Nikkei08:3016735.12-29.85-0.18%
Shanghai09:283018.75-6.93-0.23%
Hang-Seng10:2822492.4326.820.12%
All Ords08:385628.20-8.50-0.15%
NZSE 5009:087349.61-13.55-0.18%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold $19:591346.876.250.47%
Gold R19:5817855.64-113.50-0.63%
Gold R/kg19:57574515-3192-0.55%
Silver $19:5920.19600.36701.85%
Platinum $19:591178.5528.552.48%
Palladium $19:59724.6033.054.78%
R18617:288.45-0.09-1.05%
R20417:107.68-0.05-0.65%
R20717:087.85-0.08-0.95%
Brent Crude19:5844.330.060.14%
USD / ZAR19:5913.2614-0.1438-1.07%
GBP / ZAR19:5517.2278-0.1769-1.02%
EUR/ ZAR19:5514.8313-0.0782-0.52%
NZD/ ZAR19:589.5749-0.0266-0.28%
AUD / ZAR19:5510.2526-0.0325-0.32%
USD / JPY19:59101.3310-0.5170-0.51%
EUR / USD19:591.11780.00630.57%
GBP / USD19:591.30120.00150.12%

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The JSE Today

Trading Statistics
DateAdv.Decl.Unch.ActivesVolumeValueTradesOrders
10/08/201615720256415318,689,785R25,701,246,844352003677065
08/08/201617817061409171,853,291R13,328,357,6351765751733422
05/08/201614619946391262,001,018R20,953,100,1382422702084287
04/08/201615919249400286,497,362R24,164,761,996308918564108
02/08/201611721759393296,165,437R27,232,882,0743774651358612
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 ATLATSA  1452925.00.%779
2 JASCO  1091010.10.%30100
3 ALARIS  255239.91.%31266
4 PPC  882657.96.%3194965
5 HOMCHOICE  33332337.52.%9220
6 AVENG  426215.19.%6551174
7 IMPERIAL  172778515.18.%1123102
8 RBPLAT  51592354.77.%407187
9 BARWORLD  86613814.60.%826442
10 AECI  98294294.56.%595997
11 TFG  157296794.51.%4779499
12 ASTRAL  137425424.11.%137448
13 NORTHAM  53352074.04.%966984
14 RHODES  2548973.96.%72751
15 SPURCORP  32301223.93.%179751
16 PIVOTAL  1850703.93.%200430
17 IMPLATS  67472473.80.%3905145
18 SEREIT  2080753.74.%50650
19 ANGLOPLAT  4696816783.71.%419031
20 ALTRON  560203.70.%17400

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 S-InzaloB  4000-400-9.09.%1274
2 Trellidor  475-40-7.77.%400
3 MONTAUK  1625-125-7.14.%763
4 TRENCOR  3400-229-6.31.%540398
5 ACCELERAT  606-34-5.31.%27777
6 CONDUIT  275-15-5.17.%59836
7 PETMIN  117-6-4.88.%30032
8 TEX  663-32-4.60.%155518
9 BRAIT  11696-554-4.52.%6229332
10 SIRIUS  759-35-4.41.%143092
11 Zakhele   7000-300-4.11.%6843
12 CAPREG  1040-40-3.70.%48051
13 SOUTH32  2000-75-3.61.%2288842
14 BASREAD  275-10-3.51.%35244
15 TASTE  222-8-3.48.%166345
16 WORKFORCE  140-5-3.45.%100030
17 GROUP-5  2320-80-3.33.%119452
18 ASTORIA  1065-34-3.09.%165847
19 BILLITON  18038-557-3.00.%2546951
20 HOSP-B  325-10-2.99.%762212

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 ANGLOPLAT  469684878016783.71.%419031
2 HCI  14150150004002.91.%142163
3 BIDVEST  16890169204632.82.%2645891
4 MASSMART  15516156533862.55.%451291
5 SHPCB  12150001215000150001.25.%393
6 OMNIA  17500178502001.16.%111291
7 PICKNPAY  82538278730.89.%1097666
8 SHOPRIT  20827211761770.86.%2527743
9 TRNSHEX  397440-3-0.75.%205893

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 TRENCOR  34003100-229-6.31.%540398
2 TEX  663663-32-4.60.%155518
3 BRAIT  1169611033-554-4.52.%6229332
4 ASTORIA  10651030-34-3.09.%165847
5 RIPLC  766760-19-2.42.%1157368
6 CAPCO  48974868-113-2.26.%1792977
7 ABINBEV  164974164000-2979-1.77.%74425
8 EPEE  969898-16-1.62.%138928
9 SABVEST-N  268023000.4500
10 RICHEMONT  80107854560.70.%3084205

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Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4045,132.06-378.59-0.83%
Industrial76,139.63-351.67-0.46%
Mid Cap82,332.56869.711.07%
Small Cap60,981.05100.010.16%
Resource 2031,791.25-429.54-1.33%
Industrial 2568,018.21-420.86-0.61%
Financial 1515,445.51-39.63-0.26%
Financial & Ind. 3070,961.85-486.20-0.68%
All Share52,218.61-268.04-0.51%
Oil & Gas 7,195.69.000.00%
Mining 24,307.21-314.04-1.28%
Gold Mining2,792.41-.59-0.02%
Platinum Mining31.231.063.51%
GENERAL MINING5,585.73-149.62-2.61%
Oil & Gas Producers 38,689.88.000.00%
Basic Materials 22,745.66-261.95-1.14%
Chemicals 19,412.59-62.45-0.32%
Forestry & Paper 48,570.59-702.00-1.42%
Industrial Metals 10,670.29-172.29-1.59%
Industrials 48,718.07575.111.19%
General Industrials 190.171.911.01%
Consumer Goods 69,548.72-772.87-1.10%
Automobiles & Parts 4,540.24-56.61-1.23%
Household Goods603.24-8-1.29%
Health Care 10,075.21-20.71-0.21%
Beverages 257.38-5.86-2.23%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 9,826.248.680.09%
Personal Goods 800.015.590.70%
Consumer Services 18,422.3037.490.20%
General Retailers 8,494.97170.102.04%
Travel & Leisure 6,546.2955.770.86%
Media 463.58-1.63-0.35%
Support Services 2,012.013.910.19%
Telecommunications 7,004.02-140.94-1.97%
Financials 42,249.66-42.82-0.10%
Banks 7,381.878.880.12%
Non-life Insurance 58,701.08255.220.44%
Life Insurance 39,306.57-145.79-0.37%
General Financial 3,973.72-11.43-0.29%
Technology 54,771.77182.770.33%
SHARIAH TOP40 3,120.82-39-1.25%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,555.13-20-0.57%
COAL MINING10,300.50-66-0.63%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 7,263.09200.27%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,430.42-13-0.88%
SA LISTED PROPERTY 660.413.140.48%
CAPPED PROPERTY 547.270.00%
RESOURCE 18,148.72-209-1.14%
DIVIDEND PLUS213.2020.72%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 409,657.72-54-0.56%
Capped Top 4024,222.39-191-0.78%
Capped All Share26,763.49-126-0.47%
JSE TABACO 10,687.47-110-1.02%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
MTNMTN GROUP LIMITEDBUY08/08/2016
IPLIMPERIAL HOLDINGS LTDBUY08/08/2016
KIOKUMBA IRON ORE LTD SELL05/08/2016
MNPMONDI PLC PREBUY05/08/2016
EXXEXXARO RESOURCES LIMITEDSELL05/08/2016
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
11/08/2016BELLJune 2016 (Interim)
11/08/2016FORTRESSAJune 2016 (Final)
11/08/2016FORTRESSBJune 2016 (Final)
11/08/2016MPACTJune 2016 (Interim)
11/08/2016OLDMUTUALJune 2016 (Interim)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
INT HOTEL08/08/1623/08/1614/10/16GBP 0.0300
TRADEHOLD PREF08/08/1623/08/1601/09/16ZAR 0.1996
MTN GROUP05/08/1623/08/1629/08/16ZAR 2.5000
RESILIENT04/08/1630/08/1605/09/16ZAR 2.5627
MONDIPLC04/08/1616/08/1613/09/16EUR 0.1881
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
HUDACO01/07/1608/08/1615/08/16ZAR 1.7000
ECSP C225/07/1608/08/1615/08/16ZAR 1.4699
ECSP C528/07/1608/08/1615/08/16ZAR 1.4699
ECSP C25/07/1608/08/1615/08/16ZAR 1.4699
ECSP C425/07/1608/08/1615/08/16ZAR 1.4699

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
IAPInvestec Australia Property Fund10/08/2016Confirmed
TDHTradehold Ltd.11/08/2016Confirmed
TDHPPTradehold Ltd.11/08/2016Confirmed
TDHPTradehold Ltd.11/08/2016Confirmed
SOHSouth Ocean Holdings Ltd.11/08/2016Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
DateTimeHeadline
10/08/201617:21NOVUS HOLDINGS LIMITED - New date for Annual General Meeting
10/08/201617:00MASONITE (AFRICA) LIMITED - Finalisation of Masonite transaction and payment to ...
10/08/201616:45FAIRVEST PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED - Provision Of Financial Assistance
10/08/201616:35ELLIES HOLDINGS LIMITED - Dealing In Securities By A Director Of The Company
10/08/201616:30ARGENT INDUSTRIAL LIMITED - General Repurchase of Ordinary Shares
10/08/201616:30DELTA PROPERTY FUND LIMITED - Posting of Delta's integrated report, no change st...
10/08/201616:00VERIMARK HOLDINGS LIMITED - Appointment of Financial Director
10/08/201615:46ABSA CAPITAL - LPWA07 -Amendment - Notice of Expiry of Long Equity Investment Pl...
10/08/201615:45ABSA CAPITAL - CANCELLATION OF S374841 LPWA07 - Notice of Expiry of Long Equity ...
10/08/201615:23NEWFUNDS COLLECTIVE INVEST SCHEME - NFGOVI - Change to Index Constituents effect...
10/08/201615:23NET 1 UEPS TECHNOLOGIES INC - Net1 Announces Closure of Competition Commission C...
10/08/201615:00STENPROP LIMITED - No change statement, publication of integrated annual report ...
10/08/201615:00DENEB INVESTMENTS LIMITED - Posting Of Circular And Notice Of General Meeting In...
10/08/201615:00LONMIN PLC - Notification of major interest in shares
10/08/201614:55PRESCIENT LIMITED - Assets under management
10/08/201614:42IVUZI INVESTMENTS LIMITED - IVA629-Full Capital Redemption
10/08/201614:41STANDARD BANK OF SOUTH AFRICA LD - SCIB: The Standard Bank Of South Africa: Issu...
10/08/201614:40EQUITES PROPERTY FUND LIMITED - Dealings in securities by a director and by an a...
10/08/201614:33ABSA CAPITAL - LPWA07 - Notice of Expiry of Long Equity Investment Plan Security
10/08/201614:00KIBO MINING PLC - Share Issue
10/08/201613:42MASONITE (AFRICA) LIMITED - Trading update
10/08/201613:30INVESTEC BANK LIMITED - Changes to the Board of Investec Bank Limited
10/08/201613:08DIPULA INCOME FUND LIMITED - Dealings in securities by an associate of a directo...
10/08/201612:58NEW EUROPE PROPERTY INVESTMENTS PLC - Availability of the Unaudited Condensed Co...
10/08/201612:57NEW EUROPE PROPERTY INVESTMENTS PLC - Unaudited Condensed Consolidated Financial...
10/08/201612:10ARGENT INDUSTRIAL LIMITED - Dealing in Securities by Director
10/08/201612:00VODACOM GROUP LIMITED - Vesting and sale of forfeitable shares
10/08/201612:00KAP INDUSTRIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED - Acquisition By KAP Of Safripol Holdings Propri...
10/08/201611:28RAUBEX GROUP LIMITED - Dealing in securities by a non-executive director
10/08/201610:53VUKILE PROPERTY FUND LIMITED - Interest Rate Reset: VKE06
10/08/201610:52VUKILE PROPERTY FUND LIMITED - Interest Rate Reset: VKE03
10/08/201610:42INVESTEC BANK LIMITED - Declared interim dividend announcement on British Americ...
10/08/201610:38INVESTEC BANK LIMITED - Adjustment to issue size - ESPIBU
10/08/201610:21ABSA BANK LIMITED - NEWUSD - Listing of additional NewWave USD Exchange Traded N...
10/08/201610:00BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC - Notification and public disclosure of transaction...
10/08/201610:00AVENG LIMITED - Trading statement, transaction announcements and renewal of caut...
10/08/201609:53WILDERNESS HOLDINGS LIMITED - Clarity on dividend tax treatment
10/08/201609:35ERIN ENERGY CORPORATION - Announces Second Quarter 2016 Results and Provides Ope...
10/08/201608:57OLD MUTUAL PLC - Old Mutual Announces Sale of Old Mutual Wealth Italy
10/08/201608:52OLD MUTUAL PLC - Form 8.3 - Public Opening Position Disclosure - Deutsche Boerse...
10/08/201608:01NEWFUNDS COLLECTIVE INVEST SCHEME - GIVRES - Listing of additional NewFunds S&P ...
10/08/201608:00KIBO MINING PLC - Kibo signs Definitive Agreement with Lake Victoria Gold Ltd fo...
10/08/201608:00NEWFUNDS COLLECTIVE INVEST SCHEME - GIVFIN - Listing of additional NewFunds S&P ...
10/08/201607:06DIAMONDCORP PLC - Lace Diamond Mine operational update
10/08/201607:05BHP BILLITON PLC - Appointment of Non-executive Director
10/08/201607:05ERIN ENERGY CORPORATION - Quarterly report
10/08/201607:05SOUTH32 LIMITED - Appointment of additional company secretary
10/08/201607:05BRAIT SE - Net asset value (NAV) update for the first quarter ended 30 June 2016...
10/08/201607:05SABMILLER PLC - Rule 2.10 announcement

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