Monday, 22 December 2014 - 20:00
Charts
Seed Weekly - Let?s Recap on 2014
Local Economy
South Africa is facing many headwinds – some of the factors contributing to the restricted economic growth are:
The Rand
In view of the rand getting hammered during the last couple of months to its weakest level vs the US dollar in 6 years, there was some good news with Fitch’s decision not to downgrade SA’s credit rating earlier this week. This meant that the rand firmed against the US Dollar after big recent losses but there is still concern, as analysts predict that SA’s credit rating could still be cut within the next six months. At time of writing the rand was trading at R 11.57 to the US dollar, R 18.08 to the British pound, and R 14.22 to the euro.
Inflation
The weak rand continues to pose risks to the inflation outlook, given its vulnerability to swings in market sentiment as investors speculate on the timing and scale of monetary policy normalisation. CPI figure for the year as at end of November sits at 5.81\%. It is still within its target of 3%-6%. A sharply lower oil price will, however, put a big brake on inflation going forward.
Current Account and Budget Deficit
With the current account being traditionally funded by foreign portfolio inflows, the persistently large shortfalls on the budget and current accounts increase our vulnerability. The concern here would be that the United States is expected to raise interest rates in 2015, which in turn would reduce the appetite for investing in emerging markets.
Trade Deficit
The cumulative trade deficit for 2014 stands at R 95bn as at the end of October and this is R 20bn more compared to the same time in 2013.
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is over 25%.
Eskom
Major role players state that load shedding and Eskom problems have cost us R 6bn so far – and that we could face electricity shortages for the next three to five years with the energy-hungry manufacturing and mining industries to be hit the hardest.
Globally
The world is in a general low growth, low demand, state with an oversupply of labour and commodities and a large supply of liquidity.
In the US, the stronger dollar represents a headwind for their economy but does help with their inflation. The low oil price (still under $ 60 per barrel) and low interest rate is also a welcome boost to their economy.
The emerging markets are slowing down with the MSCI emerging markets returning 2.2% year to date, compared to the developed markets which have returned 6.7% thus far. The big question is whether US growth will be strong enough to counter the falling growth in emerging markets and Europe in the coming year. European growth is only estimated to be 1.3% for 2015.
As expected, the above factors (among others) have had a major impact on the market for the year which is evident by looking at the year to date performance.
An ALSI return of 10.0%* for the year thus far, compared to 21.4% for 2013, makes for ugly reading.
There is, however, light at the end of the tunnel and long term investors should not be too concerned. In this environment, we are pleased that our unit trust funds have outperformed their benchmarks and peers for the year. (Figures below)
We want to make use of this opportunity to thank all our clients for their loyal support. Have a blessed Christmas and may 2015 be a prosperous year and one where South Africa brings home Cricket and Rugby World Cups.
Kind regards,
Renier Hugo
www.seedinvestments.co.za
info@seedinvestments.co.za
021 914 4966
Mon, 22 Dec 2014
Top News
South African stocks fell on Monday, dragged down by blue-chip heavyweight Sasol as the price of crude oil gave up earlier gains and skidded back towards $60 a barrel, while views that some shares might have been overbought also weighed. Full story
South Africa's rand ended slightly firmer against the U.S. dollar on Monday, although it struggled to find momentum given the lack of market-moving news in lethargic holiday trade. Full story |
|
Two bomb explosions at a bus station in the northeast Nigeria on Monday killed at least 20 people and wounded 40, an emergency services official said, and witnesses said many of the victims had rushed in to help those wounded in the first blast. Full storyNew York Mayor Bill de Blasio faced the biggest crisis of his political career on Sunday after a gunman killed two police officers in an attack intended to avenge recent police killings of unarmed black men in the United States. Full storyChina's ruling Communist Party announced a corruption investigation into a one-time senior aide to former president Hu Jintao on Monday, as President Xi Jinping opens another front in his sweeping battle against deep-rooted graft. Full story |
|
|
Markets | Gold dropped more than 1
percent and silver slid 3 percent on Monday, triggering
automatic sell orders in thin pre-holiday dealings after U.S.
existing. . . Full story | | Equity markets worldwide edged
higher on Monday after European energy shares rose, even as oil
prices remained volatile.
U.S. stocks. . . Full story | | China stocks closed up on
Monday in volatile trade as electrical utilities rose and banks
spiked, but gains were capped by news that. . . Full story | | Hong Kong shares produced
solid gains on Monday, underpinned by gains in mainland markets
plus stability in crude oil prices and the Russian. . . Full story |
|
| Japanese stocks advanced on Monday
as rebounding crude prices underpinned oil-related shares.
The Nikkei benchmark ticked up 0.1 percent. . . Full story | | Australian shares rose for the
fourth consecutive session on Monday in a holiday-shortened
week, led energy and resources companies in a broad-based rally
that. . . Full story | | Equity markets worldwide
extended the week's rally on Friday and oil prices rebounded
from recent lows, as investors closed out the last full. . . Full story | | Gold edged lower on
Friday, struggling with the $1,200 an ounce mark as the dollar
firmed and investor appetite for risk increased on. . . Full story |
World Markets (Spot Prices)
Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | JSE Overall | 17:00 | 49339.32 | -47.39 | -0.10% | JSE Top 40 | 17:00 | 43583.20 | -72.66 | -0.17% | JSE Gold | 17:00 | 1113.28 | -3.02 | -0.27% | JSE Financial | 17:00 | 40483.96 | 103.57 | 0.26% | JSE Industrial | 17:00 | 69924.75 | 90.14 | 0.13% | JSE Indust 25 | 17:00 | 61885.63 | 72.47 | 0.12% | JSE Resource | 17:00 | 41634.18 | -466.49 | -1.11% | DJ Futures | 19:58 | 17865.00 | 106.00 | 0.60% | DJ Ind | 19:58 | 17900.26 | 95.46 | 0.54% | SP 500 | 19:58 | 2071.87 | 1.22 | 0.06% | Nasdaq | 19:58 | 4773.04 | 7.66 | 0.16% | FTSE 100 | 18:35 | 6576.74 | 31.47 | 0.48% | DAX | 19:08 | 9865.76 | 78.80 | 0.81% | CAC40 | 19:08 | 4254.43 | 12.78 | 0.30% | Nikkei | 08:28 | 17635.14 | 13.74 | 0.08% | Shanghai | 09:30 | 3127.44 | 18.84 | 0.61% | Hang-Seng | 06:28 | 23387.28 | 270.65 | 1.17% | All Ords | 07:47 | 5414.10 | 101.40 | 1.91% | NZSE 50 | 06:28 | 5541.74 | 13.99 | 0.25% |
| | Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | Gold $ | 19:59 | 1180.91 | -14.12 | -1.18% | Gold R | 19:57 | 13639.14 | -186.43 | -1.35% | Gold R/kg | 19:58 | 438286 | -6191 | -1.39% | Silver $ | 19:59 | 15.6720 | -.4400 | -2.73% | Platinum $ | 19:59 | 1183.39 | -9.51 | -0.80% | Palladium $ | 19:59 | 814.81 | 9.91 | 1.23% | R186 | 15:40 | 8.02 | .01 | 0.19% | R204 | 15:40 | 7.23 | .02 | 0.28% | R207 | 15:40 | 7.48 | .01 | 0.13% | Brent Crude | 19:58 | 60.41 | 1.14 | 1.92% | Rand / Dollar | 19:59 | 11.5492 | -0.0200 | -0.17% | Rand / Pound | 19:55 | 17.9890 | -0.0701 | -0.39% | Rand / Euro | 19:55 | 14.1493 | -0.0060 | -0.04% | Rand / NZD | 19:57 | 8.9376 | -0.0265 | -0.30% | Rand / AUD | 19:55 | 9.4046 | -0.0218 | -0.23% | Yen / Dollar | 19:59 | 119.8920 | 0.3900 | 0.33% | Euro / Dollar | 19:57 | 0.8162 | -0.0017 | -0.21% | Dollar / Euro | 19:59 | 1.2252 | 0.0024 | 0.20% | Pound / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.6405 | 0.0009 | 0.14% |
|
Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today
Trading Statistics
Date | Adv. | Decl. | Unch. | Actives | Volume | Value | Trades | Orders |
---|
22/12/2014 | 167 | 176 | 52 | 395 | 135,739,604 | R9,276,265,158 | 156430 | 992343 | 19/12/2014 | 241 | 139 | 52 | 432 | 327,995,192 | R20,159,739,174 | 210310 | 1297016 | 18/12/2014 | 282 | 98 | 44 | 424 | 496,867,809 | R46,057,762,143 | 277264 | 548535 | 17/12/2014 | 162 | 180 | 62 | 404 | 298,177,228 | R24,054,917,668 | 369482 | 601344 | 15/12/2014 | 121 | 236 | 53 | 410 | 204,638,567 | R14,384,464,001 | 236115 | 1302063 |
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Index Summary Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Top 40 | 43,583.20 | -72.66 | -0.17% | Industrial | 69,924.75 | 90.14 | 0.13% | Mid Cap | 69,254.52 | 277.93 | 0.40% | Small Cap | 57,134.51 | -186.99 | -0.33% | Resource 20 | 41,634.18 | -466.49 | -1.11% | Industrial 25 | 61,885.63 | 72.47 | 0.12% | Financial 15 | 15,423.99 | 37.36 | 0.24% | Financial & Ind. 30 | 65,983.67 | 88.54 | 0.13% | All Share | 49,339.32 | -47.39 | -0.10% | Oil & Gas | 32,914.04 | -1293.84 | -3.78% | Mining | 24,816.59 | -132.04 | -0.53% | Gold Mining | 1,113.28 | -3.02 | -0.27% | Platinum Mining | 33.94 | -.59 | -1.71% | GENERAL MINING | 7,226.28 | -30.94 | -0.43% | Oil & Gas Producers | 17,697.27 | -695.68 | -3.78% | Basic Materials | 22,637.15 | -115.08 | -0.51% | Chemicals | 22,389.67 | 29.91 | 0.13% | Forestry & Paper | 32,645.32 | -8.28 | -0.03% | Industrial Metals | 13,698.15 | -405.23 | -2.87% | Industrials | 46,028.27 | 54.03 | 0.12% | General Industrials | 157.04 | .29 | 0.19% | Consumer Goods | 63,299.93 | 90.13 | 0.14% | Automobiles & Parts | 7,332.32 | -138.13 | -1.85% | Household Goods | 404.63 | -3 | -0.64% | Health Care | 10,244.21 | -47.34 | -0.46% | Beverages | 207.56 | .81 | 0.39% |
| | Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Food Producers | 9,419.76 | 41.01 | 0.44% | Personal Goods | 1,044.21 | -5.29 | -0.50% | Consumer Services | 13,807.78 | 39.96 | 0.29% | General Retailers | 71,924.09 | 694.40 | 0.97% | Travel & Leisure | 6,136.87 | 16.76 | 0.27% | Media | 322.61 | .51 | 0.16% | Support Services | 2,896.60 | -49.51 | -1.68% | Telecommunications | 10,743.80 | 34.49 | 0.32% | Financials | 40,483.96 | 103.57 | 0.26% | Banks | 71,584.08 | 241.04 | 0.34% | Non-life Insurance | 54,107.08 | -765.67 | -1.40% | Life Insurance | 37,185.11 | 93.66 | 0.25% | General Financial | 3,943.38 | 21.38 | 0.55% | Technology | 49,394.95 | -185.92 | -0.37% | SHARIAH TOP40 | 3,460.71 | -28 | -0.80% | FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL | 3,720.34 | -24 | -0.63% | COAL MINING | 13,466.00 | -114 | -0.84% | FTSE JSE Fledgling | 6,506.08 | 19 | 0.29% | FTSE/JSE Alt X | 1,402.07 | -1 | -0.09% | SA LISTED PROPERTY | 594.04 | | 0.06% | CAPPED PROPERTY | 515.47 | | 0.19% | RESOURCE | 22,778.45 | -267 | -1.16% | DIVIDEND PLUS | 228.11 | -0 | -0.00% | FTSE/JSE RAFI 40 | 9,362.87 | -9 | -0.10% | Capped Top 40 | 23,264.89 | -41 | -0.17% | Capped All Share | 25,025.80 | -24 | -0.10% | JSE TABACO | 8,151.50 | 127 | 1.58% |
|
Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes** Code | Company Name | Status | Updated | BTI | BRITISH AM. TOBACCO PLC | BUY | 19/12/2014 | SAB | SABMILLER PLC | HOLD | 19/12/2014 | KIO | KUMBA IRON ORE LTD | HOLD | 16/12/2014 | LON | LONMIN PLC | BUY | 16/12/2014 | BIL | BHP BILLITON PLC | BUY | 16/12/2014 |
|
|
Results Expected** Expected | Company Name | Fin. Date | 24/12/2014 | WINHOLD | September 2014 (Final) | 25/12/2014 | HWANGE | December 2013 (Final) | 25/12/2014 | HWANGE-A | December 2013 (Final) | 31/12/2014 | CHEMSPEC | September 2014 (Interim) | 31/12/2014 | CHEMSPECPREF | September 2014 (Interim) |
|
Recent Dividends** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | CULLINAN | 19/12/14 | 09/01/15 | 19/01/15 | ZAR 0.0100 | AMECOR | 18/12/14 | 09/01/15 | 19/01/15 | ZAR 0.0650 | REX TRUE6% | 15/12/14 | 02/01/15 | 12/01/15 | ZAR 0.0600 | AF-OVR 6%PP | 15/12/14 | 02/01/15 | 12/01/15 | ZAR 0.0600 | ECSP A | 15/12/14 | 09/01/15 | 19/01/15 | ZAR 0.9589 |
|
|
Ex Div** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | STANPROP | 21/11/14 | 17/12/14 | 09/01/15 | ZAR 0.8471 | STANLIB40 | 21/11/14 | 17/12/14 | 09/01/15 | ZAR 0.2441 | RMBTOP40 | 27/11/14 | 17/12/14 | 30/12/14 | ZAR 0.2395 | RMBINFX | 27/11/14 | 17/12/14 | 30/12/14 | ZAR 0.1640 | STANLIBSX | 21/11/14 | 17/12/14 | 09/01/15 | ZAR 0.0616 |
|
Upcoming AGMs** Code | Company Name | Date | Status |
|
|
Stock Exchange News Service Click here for more SENS news
|