Wednesday, 07 November 2012 - 20:00
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Golden Decade We at Seed Investments write weekly newsletters and also compile a monthly market overview. Please click here to sign up on our mailing list to receive the emails directly to your mailbox.
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South African investors have experienced a golden decade. All asset classes have delivered high real returns over the past 10 years. The table below shows the annualised return of the different asset classes in South Africa over different periods.
From the table above we can see that over the last 10 years South Africa markets did very well, even when taking the market crash in 2008 into account. If you were invested into property you would have doubled your investment every 3 years on average.
The graph below shows how our market fared against its global counterparts. The values are all in rand terms.
From the graph above we can see that an investor would have been better off locally than abroad. The table below shows the cumulative and annualised returns for the different indices.
Over the past 10 years a few things worked in South Africa’s favour:
• The rand strengthened over the period from a very weak base
• Our economy was able to defy the naysayers
• Corporate earnings increased
• Ratings of South African companies increased (i.e. PE ratio’s increased)
• Bonds and properties re-rated
• Offshore assets performed badly due to high starting valuations and not due to poor earnings growth
Going forward can we expect another golden decade?
Unfortunately the picture is not as rosy. While some factors are improving, other factors are deteriorating. The rand is currently very strong and our local assets are expensive relative to their starting point 10 years ago. South Africa’s competitiveness has also been declining due to:
• High real wage increases
• Decreases in productivity
• Rigid labour laws
• Failing education system
It is very unlikely that we will be spoiled with similar returns over the next decade. This doesn’t mean that one should disinvest from the markets, as an investment into cash will guarantee that one loses capital on a purchasing power basis. Everyone needs to adjust their expected returns going forward and relook their investment plan to ensure that there’s enough saved up for the future.
Kind regards,
Gerbrandt Kruger
www.seedinvestments.co.za
info@seedinvestments.co.za
021 914 4966
Wed, 07 Nov 2012
Top News
South African stocks ended slightly lower on Wednesday, tracking similar moves in major overseas markets as a resurgent euro zone crisis offset early relief at U.S. President Obama's re-election. Full story
Gold's rally to two week highs
after U.S. President Barack Obama's re-election fizzled out on
Wednesday, with the dollar seen as a safe-haven as investor
focus shifted quickly to U.S. fiscal woes. Full story |
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Fresh from a decisive re-election win, President Barack Obama returns from the campaign trail on Wednesday with little time to savour victory, facing urgent economic challenges, a looming fiscal showdown and a still-divided Congress able to block his every move. Full storyGreek police fired teargas and
water cannons to disperse thousands of protesters who flooded
into the main square before parliament on Wednesday in a massive
show of anger against lawmakers due to narrowly pass an
austerity package. Full storyFresh from a decisive
re-election win, President Barack Obama returns from the
campaign trail on Wednesday with little time to savor victory,
facing urgent economic challenges, a looming fiscal showdown and
a still-divided Congress able to block his every move. Full story |
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Markets | U.S. stocks fell more than 2
percent on Wednesday, putting the S&P 500 on track for its
biggest drop since June, as investors. . . Full story | | World shares and the euro fell
on Wednesday as investors worried that the deep fiscal challenge
facing President Barack Obama after his re-election. . . Full story | | UK shares fell sharply from two
week highs on Wednesday after concerns over growth in Europe and
the U.S. swamped initial relief that. . . Full story | | European stocks fell sharply on
Wednesday after persistent worries over the euro zone economy
and fiscal problems in the United States eclipsed initial. . . Full story |
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| U.S. stocks extended losses,
with all three major stock indexes dropping more than 2 percent
and the S&P 500 falling below 1,400 for. . . Full story | | European shares extended losses on
Wednesday, as relief over the U.S. election result was eclipsed
by concerns over the U.S. "fiscal cliff" of. . . Full story | | U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday in
the wake of Barack Obama's reelection as U.S. president as
comments by European Central Bank President Mario. . . Full story | | European stocks gave up their gains
on Wednesday, with indexes retreating from major resistance
levels as nagging euro zone worries eclipsed early relief. . . Full story |
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SA Business | Coal companies in South Africa signed a surprise wage deal with unions on Wednesday in an effort to avoid a wave. . . Full story | | Business confidence in South Africa ticked up in October after a sharp decline the previous month, but the mood in the. . . Full story | | South Africa exported 5.56 million tonnes of coal from the Richards Bay Coal Terminal in October, only slightly up from the. . . Full story | | South Africa's rand hit a two-week high on Wednesday as U.S. President Barack Obama won a second term in the White. . . Full story |
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| Standard & Poor's upgraded
Nigeria's credit rating on Wednesday because of improved
financial stability and optimism over reforms to the banking and
electricity sectors.. . . Full story | | Standard & Poor's upgraded Nigeria's credit rating on Wednesday because of improved financial stability and optimism over reforms to the banking. . . Full story | | Neotel, the South African unit of India's Tata Communications, plans to spend 500 million rand on capital expenditure this fiscal year,. . . Full story | | South African industrial group Barloworld Ltd said on Wednesday full-year profit likely rose as much as 50 percent, lifted by buoyant. . . Full story |
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| Junior miner Coal of Africa warned of possible layoffs at its Mooiplaats colliery in South Africa on Wednesday as it seeks. . . Full story | | Insurer Old Mutual unveiled a Nigerian acquisition as it pressed ahead with plans to grow in sub-Saharan Africa, and said it. . . Full story | | South Africa's net gold and foreign exchange reserves fell to $48.626 billion at the end of October from $48.748 billion in. . . Full story | | Pernod Ricard plans to tap Africa's thirst for whisky, vodka and cognac at a time when China is slowing and bets. . . Full story |
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Company News | Shareholders are hereby advised that the directors of Steinhoff have determined the terms of the capitalisation issue share award ("the share. . . Full story | | Holders of securities in Trencor are advised that Textainer Group Holdings Ltd (NYSE: TGH), in which Trencor has a 48,93% (30. . . Full story | | Shareholders were advised that, at the annual general meeting of Putprop held today, 7 November 2012, all the resolutions as set. . . Full story | | Coal confirmed that it has commenced a formal Section 189A process in terms of the Labour Relations Act at the Mooiplaats. . . Full story |
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| Shareholders were advised that the annual financial statements for the year ended 30 June 2012 will be posted to shareholders on 7 November 2012, and contain no modifications to the reviewed. . . Full story | | Good trading results were achieved in the second half and the group has delivered a strong performance for the 2012 financial year. Headline earnings per share are expected to be 40%. . . Full story | | Highlights for the quarter-ended 30 September 2012:
*Further strategic progress and a resilient operational performance
* Funds under management in core operations up 4% to GBP263.3 billion
*Q3 NCCF outflows narrowed to GBP(0.5) billion. . . Full story |
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Company Results | Interest revenue dropped 19% to R184.3 million (R227.6 million). Operating profit also dipped 9.56% to R200.2 million (R221.4 million). Profit attributable. . . Full story | | Revenue declined to USD142.6 million (USD157.7 million). An operating loss of USD44.1 million (profit of USD58.4 million) was recorded. A net. . . Full story | | Revenue for the interim period shot up to R212.7 million (2011: R176 million). Gross profit rose to R31.6 million (2011: R22.7. . . Full story | | Revenue for the interim period increased marginally to R656.2 million (R655.2 million) whilst EBITDA jumped to R132.0 million (R109.1 million). Operating. . . Full story |
World Markets (Spot Prices)
Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | JSE Overall | 17:00 | 37471.69 | -125.00 | -0.33% | JSE Top 40 | 17:00 | 33294.09 | -137.00 | -0.41% | JSE Gold | 17:00 | 2483.96 | 106.00 | 4.50% | JSE Financial | 17:00 | 27800.17 | -46.00 | -0.17% | JSE Industrial | 17:00 | 44179.22 | -220.00 | -0.50% | JSE Indust 25 | 17:00 | 37948.11 | -238.00 | -0.63% | JSE Resource | 17:00 | 50572.69 | -162.00 | -0.32% | DJ Futures | 19:32 | 12882.00 | -317.00 | -2.40% | DJ Ind | 20:00 | 12955.34 | -290.34 | -2.19% | SP 500 | 20:00 | 1397.62 | -30.77 | -2.15% | Nasdaq | 20:00 | 2939.40 | -72.53 | -2.41% | FTSE 100 | 18:35 | 5791.63 | -93.27 | -1.58% | DAX | 19:08 | 7232.83 | -144.93 | -1.96% | CAC40 | 19:08 | 3409.59 | -69.07 | -1.99% | Nikkei | 08:28 | 8972.89 | -2.26 | -0.03% | Shanghai | 09:28 | 2105.73 | -.27 | -0.01% | Hang-Seng | 10:30 | 22099.85 | 155.42 | 0.71% | All Ords | 07:40 | 4534.20 | 30.50 | 0.68% | NZSE 50 | 06:48 | 3943.10 | 15.43 | 0.39% |
| | Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | Gold $ | 19:59 | 1710.40 | -3.57 | -0.21% | Gold R | 20:00 | 14789.83 | 5.53 | 0.04% | Gold R/kg | 20:00 | 475493 | 4877 | 1.04% | Silver $ | 19:59 | 31.6390 | -.3110 | -0.97% | Platinum $ | 19:59 | 1536.20 | -16.30 | -1.05% | Palladium $ | 19:59 | 607.80 | -7.70 | -1.25% | R157 | 06/11 | 5.47 | .00 | 0.00% | R204 | 06/11 | 6.13 | .00 | 0.00% | Brent Crude | 19:48 | 107.07 | -2.13 | -1.95% | Rand / Dollar | 19:59 | 8.6470 | 0.0234 | 0.27% | Rand / Pound | 19:55 | 13.7838 | 0.0243 | 0.18% | Rand / Euro | 19:55 | 11.0338 | -0.0126 | -0.11% | Rand / NZD | 19:59 | 7.1398 | 0.0064 | 0.09% | Rand / AUD | 19:55 | 9.0030 | 0.0060 | 0.07% | Yen / Dollar | 19:59 | 79.8800 | -0.4880 | -0.61% | Euro / Dollar | 19:58 | 0.7836 | 0.0028 | 0.36% | Dollar / Euro | 19:58 | 1.2763 | -0.0046 | -0.36% | Pound / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.6256 | 0.0006 | 0.10% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today
Trading Statistics
Date | Adv. | Decl. | Unch. | Actives | Volume | Value | Trades | Orders |
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07/11/2012 | 178 | 153 | 83 | 414 | 214,791,453 | R12,838,609,984 | 128228 | 1300488 | 06/11/2012 | 197 | 141 | 72 | 410 | 214,459,062 | R10,234,583,151 | 109362 | 692117 | 05/11/2012 | 163 | 208 | 69 | 440 | 160,571,570 | R8,970,829,325 | 106981 | 297071 | 02/11/2012 | 247 | 128 | 61 | 436 | 222,867,282 | R12,165,389,967 | 119710 | 1550147 | 01/11/2012 | 172 | 171 | 76 | 419 | 216,056,575 | R12,017,353,518 | 109980 | 1337582 |
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Index Summary Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Top 40 | 33,294.00 | -137.00 | -0.41% | Industrial | 44,179.00 | -220.00 | -0.50% | Mid Cap | 51,941.00 | 13.00 | 0.03% | Small Cap | 38,517.00 | 100.00 | 0.26% | Resource 20 | 50,572.00 | -162.00 | -0.32% | Industrial 25 | 37,948.00 | -238.00 | -0.63% | Financial 15 | 10,395.00 | -23.00 | -0.23% | Financial & Ind. 30 | 41,364.00 | -236.00 | -0.57% | All Share | 37,471.00 | -125.00 | -0.33% | Oil & Gas | 28,302.00 | 121.00 | 0.43% | Mining | 32,516.00 | -92.00 | -0.28% | Gold Mining | 2,483.00 | 106.00 | 4.50% | Platinum Mining | 51.00 | .00 | 1.94% | GENERAL MINING | 8,428.00 | -118.00 | -1.39% | Oil & Gas Producers | 15,217.00 | 65.00 | 0.43% | Basic Materials | 27,854.00 | -93.00 | -0.34% | Chemicals | 15,310.00 | 112.00 | 0.74% | Forestry & Paper | 16,595.00 | -151.00 | -0.90% | Industrial Metals | 27,545.00 | -351.00 | -1.26% | Industrials | 35,809.00 | 83.00 | 0.23% | General Industrials | 102.00 | .00 | 0.30% | Consumer Goods | 38,071.00 | -230.00 | -0.60% | Automobiles & Parts | 7,219.00 | 132.00 | 1.86% | Household Goods | 196.00 | 0 | -0.11% | Health Care | 51,900.00 | -346.00 | -0.66% | Beverages | 126.00 | .00 | -0.17% |
| | Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Food Producers | 64,815.00 | -192.00 | -0.30% | Personal Goods | 580.00 | -9.00 | -1.66% | Consumer Services | 80,320.00 | -644.00 | -0.80% | General Retailers | 65,843.00 | 606.00 | 0.93% | Travel & Leisure | 4,657.00 | 12.00 | 0.27% | Media | 119.00 | -3.00 | -2.48% | Support Services | 2,347.00 | -22.00 | -0.97% | Telecommunications | 79,394.00 | -183.00 | -0.23% | Financials | 27,800.00 | -46.00 | -0.17% | Banks | 50,431.00 | -69.00 | -0.14% | Non-life Insurance | 46,373.00 | -331.00 | -0.71% | Life Insurance | 23,827.00 | -128.00 | -0.54% | General Financial | 2,504.00 | 9.00 | 0.38% | Technology | 33,556.00 | 177.00 | 0.53% | SHARIAH TOP40 | 3,298.00 | -12 | -0.38% | FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL | 3,400.00 | -12 | -0.37% | COAL MINING | 22,482.00 | -183 | -0.81% | FTSE JSE Fledgling | 5,674.00 | 27 | 0.49% | FTSE/JSE Alt X | 1,098.00 | 9 | 0.84% | SA LISTED PROPERTY | 468.00 | | 0.05% | CAPPED PROPERTY | 382.00 | | 0.10% | RESOURCE | 27,865.00 | -50 | -0.18% | DIVIDEND PLUS | 203.00 | 0 | -0.05% | FTSE/JSE RAFI 40 | 7,637.00 | -32 | -0.42% | Capped Top 40 | 17,570.00 | -66 | -0.38% | Capped All Share | 18,955.00 | -60 | -0.32% | JSE TABACO | 5,605.00 | 18 | 0.33% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes** Code | Company Name | Status | Updated | REI | REINET INVESTMENTS SCA | HOLD | 04/11/2012 | AGL | ANGLO AMERICAN PLC | BUY | 02/11/2012 | CFR | COMPAGNIE FIN RICHEMONT | HOLD | 01/11/2012 | BIL | BHP BILLITON PLC | HOLD | 31/10/2012 | LON | LONMIN PLC | HOLD | 30/10/2012 |
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Results Expected** Expected | Company Name | Fin. Date | 08/11/2012 | ANGLD | September 2012 (Q) | 08/11/2012 | ANGLD-A | September 2012 (Q) | 08/11/2012 | ANGLD-B | September 2012 (Q) | 08/11/2012 | ANGLD-E | September 2012 (Q) | 08/11/2012 | CORONAT | September 2012 (Final) |
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Recent Dividends** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | MEDCLIN | 06/11/2012 | 30/11/2012 | 10/12/2012 | R 0.2530 | RAUBEX | 05/11/2012 | 23/11/2012 | 03/12/2012 | R 0.3000 | BCX | 05/11/2012 | 11/01/2013 | 21/01/2013 | R 0.2000 | ASCEN B | 02/11/2012 | 23/11/2012 | 03/12/2012 | R 0.0965 | ASCEN A | 02/11/2012 | 23/11/2012 | 03/12/2012 | R 0.1791 |
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Ex Div** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | OASIS | 19/10/2012 | 02/11/2012 | 12/11/2012 | R 0.4496 | VIVIDEND | 19/10/2012 | 02/11/2012 | 12/11/2012 | R 0.2600 | INSIMBI | 05/10/2012 | 02/11/2012 | 12/11/2012 | R 0.0200 | TELEMASTR | 02/10/2012 | 02/11/2012 | 12/11/2012 | R 0.0100 | LONFIN | 19/10/2012 | 02/11/2012 | 30/11/2012 | R 0.0035 |
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Upcoming AGMs** Code | Company Name | Date | Status | WBOP | Wilson Bayly Holmes - Ovcon Ltd. | 07/11/2012 | Confirmed | WBO | Wilson Bayly Holmes - Ovcon Ltd. | 07/11/2012 | Confirmed | PPR | Putprop Ltd. | 07/11/2012 | Confirmed | NHM | Northam Platinum Ltd. | 07/11/2012 | Confirmed | AEG | Aveng Ltd. | 08/11/2012 | Confirmed |
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