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 The Sharenet Daily 
Tuesday, 13 March 2012 - 20:00
Top News
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)

Basic Share Selection ? Tiger Brands vs. Nampak

When it comes to selecting shares to construct your share portfolio, several factors can be used to evaluate shares for inclusion. At Seed our Model Portfolio has a tilt towards value shares, buying shares with dividend yields higher than the market and PE ratios lower than the market average. Our process also favours shares where earnings and dividends are expected to grow in future.

When deciding between two shares, an investor first must decide which criteria to use to provide the best indication of the return that can be achieved, and then compare the universe of shares using these criteria. There are always shares with compelling stories making headlines, but as a rational long term investor fundamental factors and ratios should be the main drivers behind your share choices. The two factors most familiar to investors are probably the Price Earnings (PE) ratio and Dividend Yield (DY).

PE ratio

The PE ratio is calculated as the current market value per share divided by the company’s earnings per share over the past twelve months. A further variation on this figure is the forward PE ratio, which uses forecast earnings over the next twelve months in the calculation. Using forecast earnings to calculate a PE ratio is not as reliable as using actual past earnings data, because forecasts can be inaccurate (especially at turning points). However, the forward PE has a prospective nature, which can sometimes be more useful to evaluate the share’s future performance.

Dividend Yield

A share’s dividend yield is calculated very simply as the annual dividend received per share divided by the share price. A healthy dividend yield is an important factor for investors that rely on dividends as an avenue of income. Although large and consistent dividend declarations are often regarded as a sign of a company’s good financial health, some companies may have very valid reasons for not declaring dividends, e.g. setting profits aside for expansion or acquisition activities. The forward DY can be calculated on a similar basis, but using an estimate of the next 12 months’ dividends to create a prospective measure of the DY.

Tiger Brands vs. Nampak

Nampak Ltd (NPK) and Tiger Brands Ltd (TBS) both form part of the Industrials super sector on the JSE, and although very different in operations and market capitalisations they can still be compared on a PE and DY basis.

Nampak was listed in 1968 and has grown to be Africa’s largest and most diversified packaging company through various acquisitions. It produces packaging products for various products from metal, paper, plastics, and glass, and also collects and recycles used packaging.

Tiger Brands was formed in 1952 with the launch of Tiger Oats, and has grown to become one of SA’s largest consumer goods companies. The company owns a wide assortment of brands including Purity, All Gold, Energade, Beacon, and Albany.

These companies’ share data as on 05/03/2012 can be summarised as follows:

Tiger Brands’ share price has increased by 46.1% over the last 12 months, pushing the PE up to 16.8 which is well in excess of the JSE ALSI PE of 13.3. The forward PE of 15.3 implies 9% earnings growth in the next year.

On the other hand, Nampak’s share price has not run as hard over the past 12 months, increasing by only 8.6% but showing strong growth over the last 30 days with a 5% increase. The PE of 13.7 compares favourably to the ALSI, and the forward PE is a further 14% lower at 11.8. This is a very reasonable price to buy into a quality company. On the dividend yield side, Nampak has the upper hand with a 4.6% yield compared to Tiger Brands’ 3.0%. Both companies have a DY in excess of the ALSI (2.8%).


Tiger Brands has rewarded investors with phenomenal growth over the past 3 years, but given the high current PE and modest DY we believe that there are better buying opportunities out there. Seed has recently included Nampak into our model portfolio, at the expense of Tiger Brands, as the current valuations are very favourable and we believe that further growth in earnings can be expected as SA’s manufacturing sector grows.

Kind regards,

Cor van Deventer
021 9144 966

Tue, 13 Mar 2012
Top News
Platinum rose for a fifth day in a row on Tuesday, the industrial metal's longest stretch of gains since October, regaining its premium to weaker bullion for the first time in six months.  Full story

Africa's biggest brewer SABMiller is ratcheting up production of more affordable beers in the continent using sorghum and cassava in place of more expensive barley to drive growth in what is already the group's fastest growing region.  Full story
An Egyptian-brokered truce between Israel and militant groups in the Gaza Strip began to take hold on Tuesday after four days of violence in which 25 Palestinians were killed and 200 rockets were fired at Israel.  Full story
President Nicolas Sarkozy overtook Socialist challenger Francois Hollande for the first time on Tuesday in an opinion poll on the first round of France's April-May election after attacking the European Union's trade and immigration policies.  Full story
Syrian government forces killed dozens of people in the northern city of Idlib, dumping their bodies in a mosque, while some 22 soldiers died in two separate rebel ambushes, opposition activists said on Tuesday.  Full story
Britain's FTSE 100 closed at its highest level this year on Tuesday as banks and miners rallied after encouraging economic data out of. . .  Full story
The S&P 500 hit a 4-year high on Tuesday and the dollar touched an 11-month peak versus the yen after strong U.S. and. . .  Full story
European shares hit a 7-1/2-month high on Tuesday as encouraging data from Germany and the United States signaled a recovery in the global. . .  Full story
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit multi-year highs on Tuesday as U.S retail sales rose more than forecast last month and as concerns. . .  Full story

European shares climbed to their highest in more than seven months on Tuesday, as encouraging data from Germany and the United States signaled. . .  Full story
European shares rose on Tuesday, closing in on multi-month peaks, as strong German sentiment data boosted confidence in the health of the global economy. . .  Full story
European equities extended gains to over 1 percent, hitting session highs on Tuesday after stronger than expected German data boosted confidence in the health. . .  Full story
The Euro STOXX 50 volatility index, Europe's main gauge of equity market investor anxiety known as the VSTOXX, dropped to a near eight-month low. . .  Full story
SA Business
. . .  Full story
South African stocks bounced back on Tuesday led by resource stocks such as Lonmin and African Rainbow Minerals as platinum rallied. . .  Full story
Economic growth in Zambia is expected to pick up this year to reflect strong growth in copper production and non-maize agriculture,. . .  Full story
South Africa's gold output fell by 11.3 percent in volume terms in January while total mineral production was down 2.5 percent. . .  Full story

BMW, the world's biggest-selling premium auto maker, brought forward its long-term target by four years to reflect robust emerging markets, intensifying rivalry with its. . .  Full story
South Africa hopes to have a plan by the end of May for replacing Iranian crude that currently makes up a. . .  Full story
/p>. . .  Full story
Sudan has lowered its oil transit fees demand to $32.20 a barrel in a bid to resolve a row that has. . .  Full story

South Africa's rand firmed against the dollar with other commodity currencies on Tuesday as risk sentiment was lifted by signs of improvement in the world's biggest economy.. . .  Full story
The rand steadied against the dollar on Monday, with investors preferring to take small profits within a two-week trading range pending fresh direction from data due later in the week.. . .  Full story
Gold fell on Monday, retreating from the previous session's rally as investors worried about data showing a massive drop in money managers' bullish position on gold and silver futures.. . .  Full story
Company News
Further to the trading statement released, which reported expected reductions in statutory headline earnings per share of 60% to 70% lower. . .  Full story
Further to the cautionary announcement dated 15 December 2011, and the subsequent renewal of cautionary announcement dated 31 January 2012, shareholders. . .  Full story
Mvelaserve expects to announce that statutory headline earnings per share are expected to be 60% to 70% lower than those of. . .  Full story
Shareholders are referred to the announcement dated 31 January 2012 and are advised that the funding requirements are not yet finalised.. . .  Full story
Company Results
Turnover for the interim period ended 31 December 2011 rose to R83.3 billion (R67.2 billion) and gross profit improved to R29.4. . .  Full story
Revenue for the interim period ended 31 December increased by 9% to R4.5 billion (2010: R4.1 billion). Gross profit jumped by. . .  Full story
Revenue increased to USD143.8 million (USD88.3 million). Gross profit soared to USD19.4 million (USD2.2 million). However, the operating loss widened to. . .  Full story
Revenue decreased to R216.3 million (R237.3 million). Gross profit decreased to R51 million (R70.5 million) and operating profit improved to R56.3. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0034175.39273.670.81%
JSE Top 4017:0030302.80235.000.78%
JSE Gold17:002536.86-7.53-0.30%
JSE Financial17:0024819.90234.210.95%
JSE Industrial17:0037662.79266.900.71%
JSE Indust 2517:0031616.55226.060.72%
JSE Resource17:0051536.74455.750.89%
DJ Futures19:5213010.00108.000.84%
DJ Ind19:4113070.09110.380.85%
SP 50019:561383.3312.240.89%
FTSE 10018:355955.9163.161.07%
All Ords08:024336.5048.301.13%
NZSE 5006:463470.8118.440.53%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold/R kg19:56410459-1110-0.27%
Brent Crude19:56126.631.561.25%
Rand / Dollar19:597.5393-0.0025-0.03%
Rand / Pound19:5511.82030.03860.33%
Rand / Euro19:559.8795-0.0525-0.53%
Rand / NZD04:586.19810.02590.42%
Rand / AUD19:557.94250.00920.12%
Yen / Dollar19:5882.68800.42000.51%
Euro / Dollar19:550.76260.00220.29%
Dollar / Euro19:571.3109-0.0040-0.31%
Pound / Dollar19:550.6357-0.0036-0.56%

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The JSE Today

Trading Statistics
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 AMECOR  235177.80.%4500
2 TELEMASTR  13996.92.%8500
3 HOWDEN  20001005.26.%59154
4 CALGRO  488234.95.%37500
5 MRHLD  31061444.86.%2997476
6 EXCELL  11054.76.%4500
7 AQUARIUS  1815814.67.%103208
8 TRENCOR  42301804.44.%59364
9 AMA  319123.91.%159804
10 IMPERIAL  155004773.18.%911928
11 ELLIES   29993.10.%5999
12 DISTELL  81002202.79.%1239
13 REDEFINE  815222.77.%3205738
14 TSOGO-SUN  1726462.74.%328818
15 SENTULA  22662.73.%333132
16 TRUSTCO  11532.68.%183000
17 CAPEVIN  96002502.67.%1720
18 MAZOR  15542.65.%500
19 BLUETEL  676172.58.%2373268
20 GROUP-5  2840702.53.%103364

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 NICTUS  413-67-13.96.%2500
2 BRIMSTON  1100-150-12.00.%9700
3 BEIGE-PR2  112-13-10.40.%20360
4 WITSGOLD  4005-395-8.98.%600
5 MVELASERV  1130-110-8.87.%226888
6 CROOKES  4750-450-8.65.%522
7 HOSP-B  449-36-7.42.%122024
8 BAUBA  198-12-5.71.%1105
9 WESIZWE  135-5-3.57.%474900
10 BEE-SASOL  26600-900-3.27.%368
11 PAN-AF  192-5-2.54.%1853573
12 CLIENTELE  1125-25-2.17.%72161
13 ARROW-B  481-9-1.84.%128343
14 VILLAGE  217-4-1.81.%247193
15 SPURCORP  1650-30-1.79.%17084
16 CITYLDG  7650-131-1.68.%27303
17 DRDGOLD  569-9-1.56.%1118860
18 BELL  2420-35-1.43.%3450
19 ESORFRANK  140-2-1.41.%104064
20 HOSP-A  1225-15-1.21.%20592

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 MRHLD  310631891444.86.%2997476
2 TRENCOR  423043751804.44.%59364
3 AMA  319319123.91.%159804
4 IMPERIAL  15500155994773.18.%911928
5 BLUETEL  676684172.58.%2373268
6 VPIF  750750152.04.%150000
7 LIFEHC  23402354401.74.%4431310
8 RICHEMONT  48204839761.60.%16054912
9 TFG  12211123201861.55.%1636439
10 REMGRO  13400135002001.52.%983156
11 SABMILLER  31400314204491.45.%2088881
12 BARWORLD  937094341311.42.%1753437
13 TIGBRANDS  27349277693491.29.%585166
14 DIPULA-A  881881111.26.%83800
15 DISCOVERY  49975005571.15.%835218
16 PINNACLE  14201431151.07.%228689
17 CAPITEC  19700197942001.03.%105842
18 RMBH  32283230280.88.%991577
19 WBHO  1255812643810.65.%96158
20 CAT  15551570100.65.%13322

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume

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Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4030,302.80235.000.78%
Mid Cap47,888.87514.321.09%
Small Cap35,524.2727.780.08%
Resource 2051,536.74455.750.89%
Industrial 2531,616.55226.060.72%
Financial 159,399.4483.790.90%
Financial & Ind. 3035,223.12253.550.73%
All Share34,175.39273.670.81%
Oil & Gas 29,134.7113.630.05%
Mining 33,190.24325.420.99%
Gold Mining2,536.86-7.53-0.30%
Platinum Mining60.84.671.11%
GENERAL MINING8,368.82108.411.31%
Oil & Gas Producers 15,665.197.320.05%
Basic Materials 28,360.85255.340.91%
Chemicals 15,360.30122.810.81%
Forestry & Paper 14,127.22169.451.21%
Industrial Metals 30,985.26-272.16-0.87%
Industrials 32,682.44415.561.29%
General Industrials 90,258.21893.131.00%
Consumer Goods 32,579.79401.461.25%
Automobiles & Parts 5,208.2533.960.66%
Household Goods180.68-2-1.19%
Health Care 39,400.78426.871.10%
Beverages 107.301.531.45%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 59,907.45475.410.80%
Personal Goods 481.407.591.60%
Consumer Services 62,898.46231.820.37%
General Retailers 52,973.4665.180.12%
Travel & Leisure 3,714.45-21.52-0.58%
Media 89.41.650.73%
Support Services 2,423.73-53.42-2.16%
Telecommunications 70,222.15-374.26-0.53%
Financials 24,819.90234.210.95%
Banks 46,969.31423.410.91%
Non-life Insurance 40,862.15797.801.99%
Life Insurance 19,758.20128.060.65%
General Financial 2,363.5727.631.18%
Technology 27,814.3788.610.32%
SHARIAH TOP40 3,140.68210.66%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,246.16230.73%
COAL MINING27,523.28370.13%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 5,298.43130.25%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,251.38-20-1.54%
RESOURCE 28,479.182390.85%
DIVIDEND PLUS198.1210.74%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 407,167.23600.85%
Capped Top 4015,993.951180.74%
Capped All Share17,288.821360.79%
JSE TABACO 4,914.38571.17%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
14 Mar 2012AVENGDecember 2011 (Interim)
14 Mar 2012ELBGROUPDecember 2011 (Interim)
14 Mar 2012ELBGROUP6December 2011 (Interim)
14 Mar 2012EOHJanuary 2012 (Interim)
14 Mar 2012LONRHODecember 2011 (Final)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
JSE12-03-1312-05-1812-05-28R 2.5000
CLOVER12-03-1312-03-2912-04-10R 0.1500
SASOL12-03-1212-04-0412-04-16R 5.7000
VPIF12-03-1212-03-2912-04-10R 0.2700
OLDMUTUAL12-03-0912-04-1312-06-07R 0.1800
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
KUMBA12-02-0912-03-0912-03-19R 22.5000
DSY B PREF12-02-2312-03-0912-03-19R 2.8923
MASSMART12-02-2212-03-0912-03-19R 2.5200
AMPLATS12-02-1312-03-0912-03-19R 2.0000
CAPEVIN12-02-1712-03-0912-03-19R 1.9840

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
SDHSecureData Holdings Ltd.20/03/2012Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
13/03/201217:45 JSE Limited - JSE Limited audited abridged results for the twelve
13/03/201217:41 Rolfes - Dealing in securities by a director
13/03/201217:30 Anglo American Plc - Anglo American Share Incentive Plan
13/03/201217:26 Anglo American plc - Anglo American Share Incentive Plan - SIP
13/03/201217:05 Mvelaserve Limited - Updated Trading Statement
13/03/201217:00 African Rainbow Minerals Limited - Director`s dealings in ARM
13/03/201216:58CLN248 - The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited - New Financial
13/03/201216:23 AFGRI Limited - Dealings in securities by a director
13/03/201216:07BIFR1 - FirstRand Bank Limited - Listing of New Financial Instrument
13/03/201216:02 Decillion Limited - Detailed cautionary announcement regarding amended
13/03/201216:00 The Spar Group Limited - Exercise of options and sale of shares
13/03/201215:56 Massmart - Notification of Director`s dealing in Massmart Holdings Limited
13/03/201215:51 Exxaro Resources Limited - Acceptance of conditional awards granted in
13/03/201215:49 PBT Group Limited - Appointment non-executive directors & changes to
13/03/201215:46 Northam Platinum Limited - Change to the board of directors ("Board")
13/03/201215:45MND/MNP - Mondi Limited/ Mondi plc - Transactions in Mondi Limited ordinary
13/03/201215:28 Tongaat Hulett - Executive Directors - Deferred bonus plan
13/03/201214:48 Avusa Limited - Appointment of non-executive director
13/03/201214:46GND/GNDP - Grindrod Limited - Share Dealings
13/03/201214:41 Racec Group Limited - Renewal of cautionary announcement
13/03/201214:37 Mvelaserve Limited - Trading update
13/03/201214:31 Nedbank Group - Dealings in Securities by Non-Executive Director
13/03/201214:05 Net 1 UEPS Technologies, Inc. - Net1 announces Updated Universal Shelf
13/03/201213:53GRA295 - Grayston Conduit 1 (Proprietary) Limited - New Financial Instrument
13/03/201212:00 Harmony Gold Mining Company - Harmony hosts visitors at Doornkop
13/03/201211:50 AVI Limited - Acceptance of options by company secretary of AVI
13/03/201211:42 Exxaro Resources Limited - Trading of Exxaro ordinary shares on behalf
13/03/201211:40 Exxaro Resources Limited - Trading of Exxaro ordinary shares on behalf of
13/03/201211:23 The Bidvest Group Limited - Dividends
13/03/201211:16 Intertrading Limited - Intertrading advises the mechanics for trading and
13/03/201211:13 Africa Cellular Towers Limited - Renewal of cautionary
13/03/201211:00 British American Tobacco p.l.c - Notification of transactions by
13/03/201210:30 PAN African Resources plc - Change Of JSE Sponsor
13/03/201210:00 Securedata Holdings Limited - Renewal of cautionary announcement
13/03/201210:00MTNC07 - Mobile Telephone Networks Holdings (Pty) Limited - New Financial
13/03/201209:30 1time holdings Limited - Resignations to the board of directors
13/03/201209:25BIDBS - Development Bank of Southern Africa Limited - Listing of Tap Issue
13/03/201209:00 Eastern Platinum Limited - Grant of stock options to directors
13/03/201208:42CLR/CLRP - Clover Industries Limited - Correction to the Clover Press Release
13/03/201208:02SOLIDJ - Investec Warrants - Declared interim dividend announcement on Sasol
13/03/201208:02STX40 - Satrix 40 Portfolio - Partial delisting of Satrix 40 securities
13/03/201208:01SOLIHH - Investec Warrants - Declared interim dividend announcement on Sasol
13/03/201208:01STXDIV - Satrix Dividend Plus Portfolio - Listing of additional securities
13/03/201208:00 Harmony Gold Mining Company Ltd - Two mineworkers fatality injured at
13/03/201208:00STXFIN - Satrix Fini Portfolio - Partial delisting of securities
13/03/201207:16CLR/CLRP - Clover Industries Limited - Clover produces solid interim results
13/03/201207:15CLR/CLRP - Clover Industries Limited - Unaudited interim condensed
13/03/201207:10 British American Tobacco p.l.c - Transaction in own shares
13/03/201207:05 Anglo American plc - Treasury Shares - Transfers

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