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 The Sharenet Daily 
Tuesday, 15 September 2015 - 20:00
Top News
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)

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Seed Weekly - Volatility on the JSE

August saw the much anticipated decline in global equity markets. The selloff was severe across a range of market indices with the MSCI All World index losing 7% in the month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 6.5%, and the MSCI China index down 11.7% as examples of the declines experienced.

By comparison the decline in the JSE All Share Index (ALSI) in August of “just” 3.6% was therefore relatively muted. However, since the beginning of May local investors on the JSE have experienced a cumulative price decline of 7.6% and naturally for many this is starting to feel very uncomfortable – especially as the market is barely positive for the year to date. When measured in USD, the ALSI was down a more pronounced 8.3% in August.

By historical comparison purposes, until the beginning of the year from the market decline in 2008/2009, JSE investors have had a relatively smooth upward ride. That is until more recently when the global market prices came under pressure, following the Chinese economic slowdown and currency devaluation, the ongoing Greek crisis and uncertainty with respect to interest rate hikes in the US, etc.

We decided to look back at monthly data on the JSE from the beginning of 1970, specifically the peak to trough declines that investors have experienced. What is very interesting is that in each calendar year since 1970 there has been at least one month of negative returns. In many cases where negative months follow one another, investors have suffered losses of up to 20% and 25% in some years. On average the calendar year losses have been around 14% over this period.

It is exactly because of these very large negative periods, that many investors are dissuaded from investing into riskier ordinary shares. The chart below reflects these calendar year peak to trough declines.

What is interesting to observe is the relatively benign period of downside volatility that we have experienced since the market crash of 2008/2009.

Then, when one moves away from the annual declines and looks at the positives, it is noteworthy that out of the 46 full calendar years, there were only 10 years in which investors’ experienced negative returns. This is reflected in the chart below, which reflects annual total return from the ALSI for each calendar year.

As we know and expect, annual returns are erratic. But the positive years more than made up for the negative periods and the compounded average return from the market since 1970 to 2014 was just over 17.5% per annum. It is exactly because of this relatively high price volatility that investors demand and typically receive an additional return when investing into the ordinary shares of companies.

In conclusion we can say that looking back at history, it is not self-evident when an investor will experience large price declines. However, history does tell us that over time it pays an investor to be investing into risk assets if they can adopt a longer term investment horizon. Also because the ideal entry level is when prices are down and risk tolerance is low, currently it makes sense to have a lower allocation to this risk asset.


Ian de Lange

Tel +27 21 914 4966
Fax +27 21 914 4912
Email info@seedinvestments.co.za

Seed is hiring: Visit Seed Analytics LinkedIn profile to view available vacancies.


Tue, 15 Sep 2015
Top News
Local markets At close of trade on Tuesday, the JSE All Share had edged up 0.25%, with gains led by resource shares.  Full story

Members of South Africa's Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) rejected on Tuesday a revised wage offer from gold producers, its chief negotiator said. "The offer on the table is more or less similar to the offer that our members rejected in the early stages of  Full story
Hungary's right-wing government shut the main land route for migrants into the EU on Tuesday, taking matters into its own hands to halt Europe's influx of refugees.  Full story
Germany urged the European Union to consider imposing financial penalties on states that refuse to take in their share of asylum seekers, as the influx of refugees showed no sign of abating on Tuesday despite new border controls.  Full story
The perpetrators of last month's deadly Bangkok bombing were members of a network that trafficked Uighur Muslims and launched the attack in anger with Thailand's crackdown on the trade, police said on Tuesday.  Full story
Stock markets edged up on Wall Street and Europe on Tuesday, supported by growing U.S. retail sales, though gains were capped by caution. . .  Full story
Chinese police are investigating senior managers at CITIC Securities, the country's biggest brokerage, the company said on Tuesday, as Beijing intensifies its scrutiny of. . .  Full story
Gold eased back towards last week's one-month low on Tuesday as U.S. retail sales data lifted the dollar versus the euro, and as. . .  Full story
Hong Kong shares gave up early gains and ended Tuesday lower, with investor sentiment subdued by slumping mainland stocks.. . .  Full story

China shares extended this week's losses to roughly 6 percent on Tuesday as investors worried about the slowing economy.. . .  Full story
Australian shares tumbled to a three-week low on Tuesday as the emergence of Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister elect failed to inspire investors,. . .  Full story
The Nikkei share average rose on Tuesday as the Bank of Japan's two-day policy meeting concluded without any surprise decisions and food companies. . .  Full story
Stocks in major markets fell on Monday and oil prices fell as investors positioned for a Federal Reserve meeting this week that could. . .  Full story
SA Business
South African unions in the coal sector have rejected revised wage offers in pay talks, officials said on Tuesday.. . .  Full story
South Africa's current account deficit narrowed for the fourth consecutive quarter in the second three months of 2015, the central bank. . .  Full story
Spending in South Africa decreased at an annualised 7.2 percent in the second quarter of the year following growth of 2.7. . .  Full story
South Africa's rand weakened against the dollar in early trade on Tuesday ahead of Thursday's Federal Reserve interest rate announcement but. . .  Full story

Chinese shares fell for a fourth straight session on Tuesday on concern over a slowing economy, weighing on emerging market stocks overall, with some currencies under pressure before a Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates.. . .  Full story
South African Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene pledged on Tuesday that the country's nuclear programme, its most expensive procurement deal, will be transparent, dispelling concerns among opposition parties that the government is. . .  Full story
The historic nuclear deal reached between Iran and major world powers has yet to be implemented, but one clear winner has emerged: Iran's highest authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.. . .  Full story
Company News
Shareholders are referred to the announcement released on SENS on 14 February 2012 wherein shareholders were advised that the non-listed redeemable. . .  Full story
Shareholders are advised that the GroupÆs full Consolidated Annual Financial Statements for the year ended 30 June 2015, are available on. . .  Full story
The Board of Old Mutual announced that Paul Hanratty, Chief Operating Officer, will be leaving the Group. It is envisaged that. . .  Full story
The Directors of the Coal announced that at the General Meeting of Shareholders held on 14 September 2015, the resolution put. . .  Full story
Company Results
Profit from operations plummeted to USD3.2 million (USD103.6 million). Net profit after tax came in at USD3.2 million (USD103.6 million). Furthermore,. . .  Full story
Revenue for the year lowered slightly to R5.891 billion (2014: R5.903 billion). Profit from operations decreased to R327.1 million (2014: R416.8. . .  Full story
Compared to the sixteen month period ended 30 June 2014. Gross rental income came in at EUR8.7 million (EUR5.2 million), while. . .  Full story
Revenue for the interim period decreased to USD4.4 million (USD5.8 million). Loss before interest, tax and depreciation narrowed to USD713 000. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0049491.68125.080.25%
JSE Top 4017:0043985.37172.310.39%
JSE Gold17:00931.223.100.33%
JSE Financial17:0042928.27-122.99-0.29%
JSE Industrial17:0071621.55225.730.32%
JSE Indust 2517:0063845.91300.720.47%
JSE Resource17:0035645.15331.440.94%
DJ Futures19:5216499.00220.001.35%
DJ Ind19:5816598.08227.121.39%
SP 50019:581977.0023.971.23%
FTSE 10017:116148.3963.801.05%
All Ords08:365046.60-73.90-1.44%
NZSE 5007:485652.39-13.48-0.24%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold $19:591104.23-3.94-0.36%
Gold R19:5914879.38-54.86-0.37%
Gold R/kg19:58478326-254-0.05%
Silver $19:5914.3320-.0780-0.54%
Platinum $19:58956.003.500.37%
Palladium $19:59598.2012.702.17%
Brent Crude19:5846.50-1.64-3.41%
USD / ZAR19:5913.4756-0.0071-0.05%
GBP / ZAR19:5520.6300-0.1428-0.69%
EUR/ ZAR19:5515.1690-0.0898-0.59%
NZD/ ZAR19:598.53150.00240.03%
AUD / ZAR19:559.5943-0.0285-0.30%
USD / JPY19:59120.44800.22800.19%
EUR / USD19:591.1264-0.0052-0.46%
GBP / USD19:591.5333-0.0092-0.59%

Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today

Trading Statistics
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 EASTPLATS  100015017.65.%230
2 LONMIN  470358.05.%2552919
3 CADIZ  175138.02.%35800
4 MAZOR  160106.67.%32470
5 ARGENT  425245.99.%11920
6 AEEI  275155.77.%82568
7 MRHLD  1245675.69.%3605589
8 BASREAD  380205.56.%33423
9 MONTAUK  1050505.00.%15000
10 HARMONY  1048484.80.%1465443
11 AME  100504504.69.%3093
12 TORRE  499193.96.%153350
13 BELL  880303.53.%2400
14 STELLAR  298103.47.%77204
15 WESCOAL  15053.45.%112667
16 ARM   69782243.32.%424767
17 EXXARO  68711892.83.%483899
18 RHODES  2060552.74.%529803
19 STEFSTOCK  412112.74.%104197
20 CONDUIT  26772.69.%684

Click here for more Major Moves...
Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 SABVEST  2100-1300-38.24.%3000
2 SOUTH32  1470-107-6.79.%1462276
3 SIBANYE  1726-116-6.30.%5294061
4 VALUE  315-20-5.97.%2090
5 DRDGOLD  189-11-5.50.%892329
6 HOWDEN  2756-144-4.97.%5549
7 PIKWIK  2786-113-3.90.%541450
8 LEWIS  6310-253-3.85.%706246
9 AVENG  465-18-3.73.%1193743
10 TRUSTCO  345-12-3.36.%842475
11 TEX  1015-35-3.33.%9000
12 MASSMART  10790-356-3.19.%332092
13 CLOVER  1821-59-3.14.%118147
14 VUNANI  160-5-3.03.%43750
15 RANGOLD  194-6-3.00.%7000
16 TRANSCAP  960-28-2.83.%15506
17 GRINDROD  1555-45-2.81.%1455396
18 KAP  664-19-2.78.%2211439
19 Cognition  181-5-2.69.%50000
20 SPAR  18335-500-2.65.%352124

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 STENPROP  225022510.17300
2 PICKNPAY  67116958-120-1.76.%3999437

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 SABVEST  21002100-1300-38.24.%3000
2 RANGOLD  194194-6-3.00.%7000
3 COMAIR  300297-5-1.64.%166996
4 GLENCORE  26702455-10-0.37.%8215123
5 NOVUS  140013760.34758

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Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4043,985.37172.310.39%
Mid Cap66,792.59-379.70-0.57%
Small Cap57,165.1660.260.11%
Resource 2035,645.15331.440.94%
Industrial 2563,845.91300.720.47%
Financial 1515,990.10-72.30-0.45%
Financial & Ind. 3068,345.74231.000.34%
All Share49,491.68125.080.25%
Oil & Gas 8,888.79423.285.00%
Mining 21,171.11201.130.96%
Gold Mining931.223.100.33%
Platinum Mining21.41.210.99%
GENERAL MINING6,391.3264.091.01%
Oil & Gas Producers 47,793.382275.885.00%
Basic Materials 21,057.56188.810.90%
Chemicals 21,514.00393.081.86%
Forestry & Paper 48,875.12-376.33-0.76%
Industrial Metals 5,769.7462.661.10%
Industrials 43,252.06-337.81-0.77%
General Industrials 154.71-1.52-0.97%
Consumer Goods 65,755.22493.850.76%
Automobiles & Parts 6,976.80115.491.68%
Household Goods575.6550.94%
Health Care 9,191.62-32.16-0.35%
Beverages 213.782.931.39%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 8,617.22-37.08-0.43%
Personal Goods 994.174.900.50%
Consumer Services 15,375.60-60.72-0.39%
General Retailers 7,935.55-120.22-1.49%
Travel & Leisure 5,908.39-14.95-0.25%
Media 368.801.230.33%
Support Services 3,029.87-18.46-0.61%
Telecommunications 8,908.57127.001.45%
Financials 42,928.27-122.99-0.29%
Banks 7,280.67-36.67-0.50%
Non-life Insurance 58,443.30-666.13-1.13%
Life Insurance 38,747.00-123.11-0.32%
General Financial 4,515.08-4.22-0.09%
Technology 67,203.34-774.51-1.14%
SHARIAH TOP40 3,298.70300.90%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,504.70220.62%
COAL MINING8,686.152392.83%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 6,629.9350.08%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,489.5410.05%
RESOURCE 19,226.111830.96%
DIVIDEND PLUS202.57-1-0.29%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 408,964.30460.52%
Capped Top 4023,482.60890.38%
Capped All Share25,103.08630.25%
JSE TABACO 9,166.9880.09%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
16/09/2015CLOVERJune 2015 (Final)
16/09/2015CLOVERPREFJune 2015 (Final)
16/09/2015EOHJuly 2015 (Final)
16/09/2015FINBONDAugust 2015 (Interim)
16/09/2015ORYXJune 2015 (Final)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
COMAIR14/09/1516/10/1526/10/15ZAR 0.1000
RMIH11/09/1502/10/1512/10/15ZAR 0.6400
RMBH11/09/1502/10/1512/10/15ZAR 1.5400
SPURCORP10/09/1525/09/1505/10/15ZAR 0.7000
DISCOVERY10/09/1502/10/1512/10/15ZAR 0.8900
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
NASPERS-N29/06/1511/09/1521/09/15ZAR 4.7000
DSY B PREF27/08/1511/09/1521/09/15ZAR 4.5870
GRINDROD PREF21/08/1511/09/1521/09/15ZAR 4.0400
ASSORE26/08/1511/09/1521/09/15ZAR 3.0000
SANTAM26/08/1511/09/1521/09/15ZAR 2.8800

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
MIXMiX Telematics Ltd.16/09/2015Confirmed
OMPOmnia Holdings Ltd.17/09/2015Confirmed
OMNOmnia Holdings Ltd.17/09/2015Confirmed
ILEImbalie Beauty Ltd.18/09/2015Confirmed
SEPSephaku Holdings Ltd.21/09/2015Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
15/09/201517:00PAN AFRICAN RESOURCES PLC - 2015 Abridged Mineral Resource & Mineral Reserve Rep...
15/09/201517:00DIGICORE HOLDINGS LIMITED - Joint Finalisation Announcement in respect of the Sc...
15/09/201516:45WOOLWORTHS HOLDINGS LIMITED - Dealing in securities by directors and the group s...
15/09/201516:41LIFE HEALTHCARE GROUP HOLDINGS LTD - Changes to the board appointment of indepe...
15/09/201516:15SUPER GROUP LIMITED - Notice of acquisition of Super Group securities
15/09/201516:06ANDULELA INVESTMENT HOLDINGS LTD - Suspension of redemption of non-listed redeem...
15/09/201515:52PURPLE GROUP LIMITED - Change in transfer secretaries
15/09/201515:44FIRSTRAND BANK LIMITED - FRC125,FRC151 Partial Capital Redemption
15/09/201515:43FIRSTRAND BANK LIMITED - FRC78,FRC82, FRC95,FRC98,FRC117 and FRC175 Notice to el...
15/09/201515:40OLD MUTUAL PLC - Form 8.3 - Public Opening Position Disclosure
15/09/201514:30DEUTSCHE BANK AG - Issue of new stub certificates - DBRMIB
15/09/201514:30METROFILE HOLDINGS LIMITED - Directors dealings in securities
15/09/201514:15BLUE GRANITE INVEST NO 1 (RF) LTD - Notice of a meeting of all note holders
15/09/201513:32GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES LIMITED - Dealings in securities by an Executive of a maj...
15/09/201513:32DELTA INTERNATIONAL PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED - Abridged audited annual financia...
15/09/201513:10FINTECH RECEIVABLES 2 (RF) LIMITED - Interest Rate Reset
15/09/201512:00IMPERIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED - Annual Financial Statements and a No Change Statemen...
15/09/201511:52TRANS HEX GROUP LIMITED - Production and sales update September 2015
15/09/201511:43SYNTHESIS FUNDING LIMITED - New Financial Instrument Listing - SY1265
15/09/201511:20HOSPITALITY PROPERTY FUND LIMITED - Appointment of CEO and acting CFO
15/09/201510:15ABSA BANK LIMITED - ASN081-Interest Rate Reset
15/09/201510:12METMAR LIMITED - Further postponement of finalisation annoncement
15/09/201510:08enX GROUP LIMITED - Notification of a disposal of beneficial interest in securit...
15/09/201510:00SABMILLER PLC - Notification of transactions of PDMR
15/09/201509:29INVESTEC BANK LIMITED - Retraction Announcement - SHFIHA
15/09/201509:07BLUE LABEL TELECOMS LIMITED - Notice of dealings in securities in terms of parag...
15/09/201509:05TAWANA RESOURCES NL - Company Update
15/09/201508:30SUN INTERNATIONAL LIMITED - Update on the proposed relocation of the Morula casi...
15/09/201508:00CENTRAL RAND GOLD LIMITED - 2015 Interim Report
15/09/201508:00COAL OF AFRICA LIMITED - Results of General Meeting
15/09/201508:00OLD MUTUAL PLC - Chief Operating Officer to leave the Group

Click here for more SENS news