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 The Sharenet Daily 
Tuesday, 28 May 2013 - 20:00
Top News
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)

The Case for Investment in Africa

Over the past few years the attention paid to Africa as an investment destination has increased dramatically – more recently Africa has been given a major platform by various asset management companies. Africa is another ‘investment story’ and as with any investment story, investors should remain sceptical until they have found out why the story is being told.

There are a couple reasons for the increased coverage:
• Legislation was recently changed in South Africa to allow retirement funds an additional 5% allocation to Africa on top of their 25% offshore allowance – this has radically boosted the demand for African investment options, and the supply has followed in close pursuit.
• Performance over the past 18 months has been excellent (after a poor 2011) – product providers can therefore offer a product with a ‘compelling investment case’.

At Seed we think that the first reason is a good reason – essentially it allows retirement fund investors a broader investment universe. The second reason shouldn’t be a major consideration. We would rather look at performance through at least one investment cycle – and then also determine how African investments are expected to perform in relation to other high risk investment options.

The basis for the investment case (to be differentiated from a ‘feel good story’) is one of shifting demographics, notably the growth in the middle class population over the next 10 – 30 years (depending on the specific country).

A couple charts can show how a small shift in income distribution can have a large impact on the demand for certain products. Chart 1 below shows how the average Kenyan in 2011 earned US$832pa vs US$478 just 7 years prior, and how this 74% increase in income resulted in car sales growing 385% as a bulge of Kenyans moved into middle class! Note that there is still a large portion of the population that still doesn’t earn enough to buy a car.

Chart 1: Kenyan income distribution

Source: Imara

Chart 2 gives a graphic illustration of the per capita demand for beer across various developed and developing countries. Notice that, in general (excluding us South Africans and the Angolans), beer consumption is extremely low in comparative to the other developing countries (like China, Peru and Argentina), and even more so than developed markets. Make no mistake, beer companies aren’t expecting consumption to move to levels seen in Australia and the UK, as these countries have big beer drinking cultures. What they are hoping for is for per capita consumption to increase 3 or 4 fold (putting them on par with China) on a growing adult population base. If this kind of growth can be achieved over the next 30 odd years – the companies supplying these countries with beer will be sitting pretty.

Chart 2: Beer consumption in selected countries

Source: GondoVisio

While the shifting demographics are naturally key to the success or otherwise of Africa as an investment destination, Africa is fortunate in that it is relatively politically stable when compared to the past 40 – 50 years and at the same time governments aren’t heavily indebted – see Chart 3 below.

Chart 3: African Government debt versus Developed Markets

Source: Momentum Asset Management

There are risks attached to any investment, and investing in Africa is no different. There are just different risks that need to be managed when compared to other countries.

At Seed we haven’t yet taken an active position in Africa, but are currently in the process of further investigating the investment case. Should we make an allocation of our clients’ capital into Africa we want to be very sure that they will be adequately rewarded. An investment in Africa (like any other investment) needs to be done at the right price (i.e. ensure that the markets aren’t overly expensive) and with an investment horizon far in excess of the 3 – 7 year horizon that we typically have at Seed. Further, the manager should be benchmark agnostic, spend the majority of his time ‘on the ground’ visiting companies in his investment universe, be significantly co-invested in the fund, and have been through a full market cycle.

Take care,

Mike Browne

021 914 4966

Tue, 28 May 2013
Top News
South African stocks extended their gains to a third trading day on Tuesday, led by coal producer Exarro and petrochemicals group Sasol, as policy support from Japanese and European central banks drove world shares higher.  Full story

Revenue from continuing operations increased to R387.5 million (R342.5 million). Operating profit decreased to R83.8 million (R90.3 million). While, attributable profit increased to R93.8 million (R78.3 million), and headline earnings per share grew to 749.9cps (588.3cps). Dividend A gr  Full story
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warned on Tuesday that failure to win the battle against youth unemployment could tear Europe apart, while abandoning the continent's welfare model in favour of tougher U.S. standards would cause "revolution".  Full story
Rotting wooden planks heave as dozens of barefoot Wayuu Indians carry washing machines, fans and stereos on their backs from the hull of a cargo ship docked on the tip of northern Colombia.  Full story
Britain and France said on Tuesday they did not have to wait until Aug. 1 to arm rebels fighting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, contradicting European Union officials, but both countries stressed they had no plans to do so yet.  Full story
U.S. stocks rallied more than 1 percent and oil rose while gold, the yen and safe-haven U.S. debt fell on Tuesday as investors. . .  Full story
European shares headed back towards recent multi-year highs on Tuesday as pledges of continued monetary policy support from central banks in Japan and Europe. . .  Full story
Strong buying of physical bullion on Tuesday reversed an early gold decline caused by a dollar rise and technical selling, but the metal. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday following their first three-day losing streak of the year, after central banks reassured investors that they will keep. . .  Full story

Britain's benchmark equity index rebounded back towards near 13-year highs on Tuesday, led by gains in heavyweight bank HSBC and pharmaceuticals group GlaxoSmithKline.. . .  Full story
European shares pushed back up towards recent multi-year highs on Tuesday as pledges of continued monetary policy support from central banks in Japan and. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks opened higher on Tuesday as supportive comments from central banks around the world reassured investors that monetary policies designed to support the. . .  Full story
Gains in HSBC and GlaxoSmithKline, seen as more resilient to any economic downturn, led a rebound in Britain's benchmark share index on Tuesday, pushing. . .  Full story
SA Business
South Africa's MTN Group said on Tuesday it had named former chief executive Phuthuma Nhleko as its chairman, replacing Cyril Ramaphosa. . .  Full story
South African telecoms operator MTN Group said revenue grew by nearly 6 percent in the first four months of the year,. . .  Full story
South Africa's economic growth slowed more than expected in the first quarter of 2013, the weakest print since a 2009 recession,. . .  Full story
South Africa's rand extended losses against the dollar on Tuesday, falling more than 1.5 percent to a fresh 4-year low after. . .  Full story

South African outsourcing firm Mvelaserve Ltd is to seek independent advice on Bidvest's $67 million cash offer to buy out minority. . .  Full story
South Africa's Nampak Ltd barely grew first-half profit on Tuesday after Africa's biggest packaging company cut prices to secure long-term contracts. . .  Full story
South African-listed paper maker Sappi is considering closing more mills in Europe as falling demand and rising costs for inputs such. . .  Full story
South Africa's Treasury sold a total 2.35 billion rand of its 2023, 2026 and 2031 government bonds on Tuesday.. . .  Full story

South Africa's rand fell against the dollar early on Tuesday and was likely to stay under pressure with market players anticipating weak economic growth data later in the session.. . .  Full story
Company News
Mvelaserve shareholders are referred to the SENS announcements dated 13 May 2013, wherein Mvelaserve shareholders were advised that the Board of. . .  Full story
Shareholders were advised that at the general meeting of Keaton Energy held on 28 May 2013 at The Ultramarine Conference Room,. . .  Full story
Shareholders are advised that at the annual general meeting of shareholders held on 28 March 2013, all the ordinary and special. . .  Full story
Linked unitholders are referred to the audited condensed results for the year ended 31 March 2013 announcement ("results announcement"), released on. . .  Full story
Company Results
Revenue for teh year grew to R2.3 billion (R1.8 billion). Results from operating activities increased to R151.0 million (R53.1 million). Total. . .  Full story
Revenue for the period jumped 17% to R2.5 billion (R2.2 billion). Operating profit was 13% higher to R465.8 million (R412.7 million).. . .  Full story
Revenue increased by 21% to R11.1 billion (R9.2 billion). Operating profit rose to R1.9 billion (R1.3 billion). Net attributable profit soared. . .  Full story
Gross operating revenue declined to R156.1 million (R180.5 million). Operating profit was recorded at R20.4 million (operating loss was at R29.2. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0041971.17538.711.30%
JSE Top 4017:0037445.94530.671.44%
JSE Gold17:001351.40-7.74-0.57%
JSE Financial17:0031794.47374.241.19%
JSE Industrial17:0054765.43848.521.57%
JSE Indust 2517:0048040.63815.231.73%
JSE Resource17:0047144.62417.210.89%
DJ Futures24/0513431.20-1857.800.00%
DJ Ind20:0015401.3598.250.64%
SP 50020:001659.019.410.57%
FTSE 10017:356762.01107.671.62%
All Ords08:444950.6012.000.24%
NZSE 5007:484478.25.050.00%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold $19:591383.70-9.91-0.71%
Gold R20:0013521.10151.551.13%
Gold R/kg20:0043470357781.35%
Silver $19:5922.2600-.3330-1.47%
Platinum $19:581453.755.250.36%
Palladium $19:58751.0015.502.11%
Brent Crude20:00104.371.731.69%
Rand / Dollar19:599.77170.17921.87%
Rand / Pound19:5514.66950.18251.26%
Rand / Euro19:5512.56460.13941.12%
Rand / NZD19:587.90870.14901.92%
Rand / AUD19:559.41500.16081.74%
Yen / Dollar19:59102.07500.99000.98%
Euro / Dollar19:550.77710.00420.54%
Dollar / Euro19:591.2860-0.0067-0.52%
Pound / Dollar19:550.66410.00260.39%

Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today

Trading Statistics
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 DELRAND  2402191042.86.%2654
2 WILDRNESS  2007053.85.%32
3 ATLATSA  1851710.12.%2000
4 WITSGOLD  9688810.00.%407
5 SANTOVA  1101010.00.%595152
6 HULAMIN  430307.50.%143755
7 TREMATON  245156.52.%5000
8 TRNSHEX  330196.11.%250720
9 SPANJRD  425245.99.%196
10 EXXARO  149007955.64.%1174732
11 INVLTD  73493695.29.%756266
12 MEDCLIN  72203204.64.%1111130
13 NETCARE  2375954.17.%3886992
14 BEE-SASOL  3000111904.13.%300
15 INVPLC  72782884.12.%1635393
16 MAZOR  17974.07.%3574
17 S-OCEAN  13054.00.%4000
18 A-V-I  59802304.00.%696872
19 JUBILEE  10943.81.%148800
20 RICHEMONT  92513303.70.%6748740

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 NAMPAK  3253-477-12.79.%6315072
2 BUILDMX  200-20-9.09.%6424
3 FORBES  350-30-7.89.%12000
4 GOLDONE  200-17-7.83.%31974
5 LITHA  270-22-7.53.%147036
6 KELLY  165-10-5.71.%1252655
7 MPACT  2377-137-5.45.%1795150
8 DRDGOLD  505-27-5.08.%687470
9 ADCORP  3034-144-4.53.%139078
10 BASREAD  950-43-4.33.%38428
11 SIBANYE  745-30-3.87.%2331675
12 KAYDAV  125-5-3.85.%41000
13 ALTRON  1972-73-3.57.%15993
14 TRANSCAP  645-22-3.30.%125169
15 SOVFOOD  500-15-2.91.%22125
16 VUNANI  175-5-2.78.%105600
17 CONTROL  105-3-2.78.%70000
18 JASCO  107-3-2.73.%94556
19 BLACKSTAR  1110-30-2.63.%22000
20 TRNPACO  1675-45-2.62.%816

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 TREMATON  245245156.52.%5000
2 MEDCLIN  722072203204.64.%1111130
3 NETCARE  23752440954.17.%3886992
4 INVPLC  727872782884.12.%1635393
5 RICHEMONT  925192513303.70.%6748740
6 MONDIPLCP  13573136174733.61.%1064447
7 REDEFINTL  670675223.40.%376926
8 CML  648265371672.64.%729200
9 REINET  20882091532.60.%3480660
10 BATS  558335601813832.54.%847635
11 SASOL  448504516511002.51.%3334296
12 MONDILTDP  13500135852882.18.%341281
13 PNR-FOODS  840984991491.80.%50181
14 URONE  25882588431.69.%38880
15 OLDMUTUAL  32003212381.20.%5468104
16 FAMBRANDS  94219549981.05.%769623
17 AECI  1052210710220.21.%251744
18 FORTRESSB  8458500.11950

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 LITHA  270270-22-7.53.%147036

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Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4037,445.00530.001.44%
Mid Cap56,342.00389.000.70%
Small Cap45,117.00142.000.32%
Resource 2047,144.00417.000.89%
Industrial 2548,040.00815.001.73%
Financial 1511,960.00174.001.48%
Financial & Ind. 3051,193.00853.001.69%
All Share41,971.00539.001.30%
Oil & Gas 33,940.00833.002.52%
Mining 28,553.00144.000.51%
Gold Mining1,351.00-7.00-0.56%
Platinum Mining38.00.001.68%
GENERAL MINING8,239.0042.000.51%
Oil & Gas Producers 18,248.00447.002.52%
Basic Materials 25,160.00166.000.67%
Chemicals 20,527.0049.000.24%
Forestry & Paper 22,389.00634.002.92%
Industrial Metals 25,353.00344.001.38%
Industrials 42,397.00-202.00-0.48%
General Industrials 127.00-1.00-1.23%
Consumer Goods 52,350.001173.002.29%
Automobiles & Parts 7,835.0068.000.88%
Household Goods156.0021.92%
Health Care 68,140.002013.003.04%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 71,881.00970.001.37%
Personal Goods 923.0032.003.70%
Consumer Services 91,512.001645.001.83%
General Retailers 65,756.001372.002.13%
Travel & Leisure 5,447.0037.000.69%
Support Services 2,403.00-79.00-3.20%
Telecommunications 86,080.0083.000.10%
Financials 31,794.00374.001.19%
Banks 50,918.00464.000.92%
Non-life Insurance 48,492.00256.000.53%
Life Insurance 31,378.00539.001.75%
General Financial 2,904.0080.002.85%
Technology 39,446.00-117.00-0.30%
SHARIAH TOP40 3,456.00441.29%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,574.00381.10%
COAL MINING18,984.009965.54%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 5,790.0050.10%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 985.00-10-1.04%
CAPPED PROPERTY 445.00-0.10%
RESOURCE 25,698.002150.85%
DIVIDEND PLUS212.0021.40%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 408,275.00911.12%
Capped Top 4019,777.002821.45%
Capped All Share21,255.002731.30%
JSE TABACO 7,134.001772.55%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
29/05/2013ADCOCKMarch 2013 (Interim)
29/05/2013CROOKESMarch 2013 (Final)
29/05/2013KIBODecember 2012 (Final)
29/05/2013NAMPAKMarch 2013 (Interim)
29/05/2013NAMPAK 6%PMarch 2013 (Interim)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
ILLOVO27/05/201328/06/201308/07/2013R 0.6100
FAMBRANDS27/05/201305/07/201315/07/2013R 1.4200
CADIZ27/05/201321/06/201301/07/2013R 0.0700
VUKILE27/05/201313/06/201324/06/2013R 0.7456
WILDRNESS27/05/201313/06/201324/06/2013R 0.0400
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
ANGLD13/05/201324/05/201314/06/2013R 0.5000
OASIS08/05/201324/05/201303/06/2013R 0.4372
FPT09/05/201324/05/201303/06/2013R 0.2611
AFRIMAT09/05/201324/05/201303/06/2013R 0.2000
ARROWA08/05/201324/05/201303/06/2013R 0.1500

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
ADHADvTECH Ltd.28/05/2013Confirmed
BCKBlackstar Group SE28/05/2013Confirmed
MTNMTN Group Ltd.28/05/2013Confirmed
SNTSantam Ltd.29/05/2013Confirmed
GNDPGrindrod Ltd.29/05/2013Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
28/05/201317:49CROOKES BROTHERS LIMITED - Audited results of the group for the year ended 31 Ma...
28/05/201317:36NEWFUNDS COLLECTIVE INVEST SCHEME - Change to index constituents effective 2 May...
28/05/201317:30NEWFUNDS COLLECTIVE INVEST SCHEME - Change to index constituents effective 30 Ap...
28/05/201317:30INDWA INVESTMENTS LIMITED - Interest Rate Reset - IN04E
28/05/201317:16JSE LIMITED - Dealing in securities by directors
28/05/201317:07MVELASERVE LIMITED - Joint announcement update in respect of the firm intention...
28/05/201316:31EFFICIENT GROUP LIMITED - Dealings in securities by a director of EFG
28/05/201316:30SACOIL HOLDINGS LIMITED - Trading statement
28/05/201316:19MTN GROUP LIMITED - Results of Annual General Meeting and Changes to the Board o...
28/05/201316:18VUNANI PROPERTY INVESTMENT FUND LTD - Financial information relating to the acqu...
28/05/201316:15RCS INVESTMENT HOLDINGS (PTY) LTD - Interest Rate Reset - RCSB04
28/05/201316:11KEATON ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED - Results of General Meeting
28/05/201316:05FIRST URANIUM CORPORATION - Financial results for the twelve months ended 31 Mar...
28/05/201315:45ZEDER INVESTMENTS LIMITED - Dealing In Zeder Investments Limited Shares By An As...
28/05/201315:30BLACKSTAR GROUP SE - Result of Annual General Meeting
28/05/201315:15JUBILEE PLATINUM PLC - Results of General Meeting
28/05/201315:15MASSMART HOLDINGS LIMITED - Notification of Directors dealing in Massmart Holdin...
28/05/201315:00PSG FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED - Disclosure Of Acquisition Of Cumulative, Non-Re...
28/05/201315:00WITWATERSRAND CONS GOLD RESOURCES - No Change Statement and Notice of Annual Gen...
28/05/201314:51NAMPAK LIMITED - Nampak Interim Report and Dividend Declaration for the six mont...
28/05/201314:30MTN GROUP LIMITED - 18th Annual General Meeting Business Update and Prospects
28/05/201314:30TRADEHOLD LIMITED - Changes to the board
28/05/201314:19ADVTECH LIMITED - Results of Annual General Meeting
28/05/201314:17MASSMART HOLDINGS LIMITED - Changes to Board Committees
28/05/201314:00TRANS HEX GROUP LIMITED - Trading statement
28/05/201312:30AFRICAN EAGLE RESOURCES PLC - Holdings in Company
28/05/201312:13DIPULA INCOME FUND LTD - Unaudited Condensed Consolidated Interim Results for th...
28/05/201311:40CULLINAN HOLDINGS LIMITED - Cautionary Announcement
28/05/201311:10ADCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED - Change in Company Secretary
28/05/201311:00SYNTHESIS FUNDING LIMITED - SY1004 New Financial Instrument Listing
28/05/201310:30FIRESTONE ENERGY LIMITED - Re-Quotation of Firestone's securities
28/05/201310:15GOLD FIELDS LIMITED - Dealing in Securities by Directors of Gold Fields Limited ...
28/05/201310:15FIRESTONE ENERGY LIMITED - Interim resource statement, project timeline and BFS ...
28/05/201310:06VODACOM GROUP LIMITED - New Financial Instrument Listing
28/05/201309:45JUBILEE PLATINUM PLC - Disposal of non-core asset Update on proposed acquisition...
28/05/201309:30NEW GOLD ISSUER LIMITED - Listing of additional NewGold debentures
28/05/201309:00NORTHAM PLATINUM LIMITED - Fatal accident at Zondereinde Mine
28/05/201307:15JSE LIMITED - Censure imposed by the JSE on both 1time Holdings Limited and Mr B...
28/05/201307:15REAL PEOPLE INV HOLD (PTY) LTD - Interest Rate Reset - RP004
28/05/201307:05VUKILE PROPERTY FUND LIMITED - Correction announcement in respect of the distrib...

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