Friday, 01 April 2011 - 20:00
Sharenet is pleased to announce the launch of our new publication, The Sharenet Daily. We have built on the success of our Daily Equity Report, while adding more content and helpful information. The result is a publication that gives readers a quick, easy to read and informative synopsis of market activity, company results and news on the JSE for the day, as well as an overview of what transpired on important overseas markets.
The Sharenet Daily includes helpful charts that give a graphical impression of events, and our news content is sourced from a number of contributors, including Reuters. In addition, Sharenet's popular price information is available in our Spot Price format which provides a snapshot of the JSE and world indices, currencies and commodities.
All the JSE trading statistics; major movers; latest dividends; upcoming AGM dates and more are provided to insure that you keep abreast of market developments. The Sharenet Daily is published at 8pm each day on the website and also distributed via email for your convenience. As always, we welcome your comments, feedback and suggestions at support@sharenet.co.za
Charts
Great Trough signals new advance Below is an extract from an alert sent to our subscribers on morning of Tuesday 22nd March (12 days ago). Since then the JSE has risen almost uninterrupted by 5.4%
We are issuing a "Fosback Great Trough" alert. This system tracks an index made up from an exponential moving average of daily advance and decline data on the JSE and issues the alert when the index rises above 30 and then makes a peak. This is a very rare but deadly reliable signal for a new multi-month sustained advance on the market and has only been flagged 15 other times over the last 15 years (one signal per year average) as depicted below:
This is the 3rd such signal we have seen since this bull market commenced in October 2008. It only picks up “Great Troughs” i.e. large corrections from whence sustained multi-month (even multi-year) gains commence. Every signal since 14/09/1998 has been solid with two “false signals” in Oct 97 and June 98. This gives it a historical accuracy of 86.6% (two duds, 15 signals excluding todays) with the last 12 signals in a row being successes.
It is not a trading signal, since sometimes it can be a bit premature or late (by 1-2% either way), but for investors looking to “buy on the dips” it is perfect. You can buy instruments that track or approximate the JSE to play the signal, such as SATRIX40, SATRIX RESI etc. But since it marks potentially highly probable periods when a sustained rise is likely on the JSE it often signals investors to buy those favourite shares they have been hunting, on the premise that “a rising tide floats all boats”. Conducting your equities activities on or around these signals gives that extra margin of safety that your shares you buy have “tailwinds” as opposed to “headwinds”.
Now great troughs by definition are formed in reaction to some negative event, be it geopolitical, bubbles bursting, terrorist attacks, financial crises etc. There needs to be a certain degree of pessimism, negativity or uncertainty to prevail to bring about these large corrections. Since it so closely approximates “ground zero” of these corrections, it is to be expected that on the day you see these signals they appear counter-intuitive. Without the luxury of hindsight, the signal on the hard right edge of the above chart looks far less obviously correct than those on the left! As such it is a “contrarian” signal – meaning when you see it, every instinct will be screaming at you the signal is wrong. And right now is no exception! Major geopolitical upheavals in the middle east and North Africa, crippling twin natural disasters in the world’s 3rd largest economy, nuclear contamination threats, inflation clouds building worldwide, debt contagion in Europe – all conspire to tell us we must be bloody mad to deploy funds into the market at this time. The point is this is exactly what everyone else is thinking and history tells us when everyone is thinking the same way in the markets, you are better off doing the opposite! By the time something looks “obviously safe” the major move is over and the smart money is getting out already!
There are no guarantees this is not a false signal, but the odds are on our side. Provided you couple your actions on this signal with sound position sizing and risk management, and adequate diversification of well-chosen instruments (solid stocks shown to you by our JSW program) that are not overpriced then any potential downside should be limited, and certainly far smaller than the potential upside. As with many great troughs, bottoms can be choppy affairs before the wind finally fills our sails and ramps us forward, so do expect volatility to ensue. It might not occur and we zoom upwards, but you need to at least prepare yourself mentally for it to ensure when it arrives you don’t get cold feet and succumb to your “fight or flight” instincts.
Regardless of if you are a short term trader or investor, we suggest you commence firing up your JSW Program and start picking up quality stocks it is recommending.For demo videos of how this is done go to our Video Training Library.
PowerStocks Equity Research
www.powerstocks.co.za
Fri, 01 Apr 2011
Top News
African governments should unbundle -- separate generation and distribution -- their state power utilities and allow private producers into the sector to unlock growth, investors and regulators said on Friday. Full story
South African petrol pump prices in the main inland commercial region will increase by 54 cents a litre, or 5.7 percent, from April 6, the government said on Friday. Full story |
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U.S. blue chip stocks opened
the second quarter on Friday by hitting their highest level
since June 2008 as investor optimism rose after an upbeat U.S.
employment report. Full storyMuammar Gaddafi's forces stormed the western rebel outpost of Misrata with tanks and artillery on Friday, a rebel spokesman said, while insurgents marshalled defences in their eastern heartland. Full storyFierce fighting spread across Abidjan on Friday as troops loyal to Ivory Coast's Laurent Gbagbo fended off attacks by forces seeking to install rival presidential claimant Alassane Ouattara. Full story |
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Markets | Gold fell 0.5 percent on
Friday as an encouraging U.S. jobs report boosted the dollar,
but euro zone debt worries and political unrest. . . Full story | | European shares hit its highest
close in just over three weeks on Friday after strong U.S. jobs
data supported the view the global. . . Full story | | Strong banks and commodity
stocks hauled Britain's top share index back above the 6,000
level to a nearly six-week closing high on Friday. . . Full story | | U.S. stocks rose on Friday
after solid data on the labor market bred confidence in the
economic recovery and comments from a Federal. . . Full story |
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| World stocks rose and the dollar
strengthened on the opening day of the second quarter, ahead of
U.S. jobs data expected to show. . . Full story | | Australian shares closed 0.5
percent firmer on Friday after higher crude prices drove energy
stocks such as Woodside Petroleum higher and as a. . . Full story | | Gold dropped on Friday before
the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls report which could
underpin the dollar and weigh on bullion, while ETF. . . Full story | | European shares slipped on
Thursday as investors traded cautiously ahead of the Irish bank
stress tests results, with banking stocks reversing earlier
gains, while. . . Full story |
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SA Business | Africa's largest telephone group Telkom said on Friday it has entered into a binding agreement with Visafone to sell part of. . . Full story | | South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan on Friday cut the 2010/11 budget deficit and said this year's growth might be higher. . . Full story | | A derailment on South Africa's rail lines to the Richards Bay Coal Terminal on Wednesday has lost around 500,000 tonnes of. . . Full story | | A derailment on South Africa's lines to Richards Bay Coal Terminal on Wednesday has lost around 500,000 tonnes export coal, industry. . . Full story |
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| Harmony Gold, the world's fifth largest gold miner, said on Friday that a mine in South Africa it had shut after. . . Full story | | Tension between the ruling MPLA
party and the main opposition UNITA party and questions over
policy-making are worrying investors in the major African
oil-producing. . . Full story | | Ghana joined the club of
oil-producing nations in December, offering it the chance to
transform the fortunes of its aid- and cocoa-dependent economy.. . . Full story | | South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said on Friday it was still unclear what the impact of higher oil prices would. . . Full story |
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| South Africa's Purchasing Managers' Index jumped up to a seasonally adjusted 57.2 in March -- it's highest level in 13 months -- from 54.8 in February, a survey showed on Friday.. . . Full story | | South African dairy foods maker Clover expects supply problems on some of its distribution lines due to lack of capacity, until a key expansion project comes on stream.. . . Full story |
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Company News | Shareholders were reminded of the annual general meeting of the company to be held on 13 May 2011 at 10h00 at. . . Full story | | Shareholders were notified that Mr Francois Derek Jooste has been appointed as group company secretary of MMI with effect from 1. . . Full story | | In its preliminary results announcement for the year ended 31 December 2010 published on 8 March 2011, Old Mutual (the "company"). . . Full story | | In accordance with paragraph 3.59 of the JSE Limited Listings Requirements, Omnia announce the appointment of Ms Daisy Naidoo as an. . . Full story |
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| | | Old Mutual plc is pleased to announce that the Maryland insurance administration has approved the acquisition of OM Financial Life Insurance. . . Full story | | Further to the cautionary announcements dated 22 November 2010, 05 January 2011 and 17 February 2011 respectively, shareholders are advised that. . . Full story | | First Uranium has commenced the re-commissioning of the Ezulwini Mine's uranium plant on schedule following the modification program on the Ion. . . Full story |
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Company Results | Revenue for the twelve month interim period fell to GBP675 000 (2009: GBP1 million). Gross loss improved slightly to GBP982 000. . . Full story | | Revenue increased to R195.8 million (R125 million). Operating profit soared to R66.4 million (R1.8 million). The net attributable loss narrowed to. . . Full story | | Revenue for the interim period increased to R520.7 million (2009: R505.2 million). Gross profit decreased to R75.5 million (2009: R115.5 million),. . . Full story | | Revenue slumped to R1.3 million (R3.7 million). Gross profit declined to R0.6 million (R0.7 million), but the net attributable loss narrowed. . . Full story |
World Markets (Spot Prices)
Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | JSE Overall | 17:00 | 32385.32 | 181.26 | 0.56% | JSE Top 40 | 17:00 | 29175.56 | 138.08 | 0.48% | JSE Gold | 17:00 | 2770.90 | 33.27 | 1.22% | JSE Financial | 17:00 | 21782.94 | 173.69 | 0.80% | JSE Industrial | 17:00 | 32195.04 | 243.44 | 0.76% | JSE Indust 25 | 17:00 | 26956.17 | 189.26 | 0.71% | JSE Resource | 17:00 | 57362.89 | 121.58 | 0.21% | DJ Futures | 20:00 | 12335.00 | 69.00 | 0.56% | DJ Ind | 18:55 | 12403.82 | 84.09 | 0.68% | SP 500 | 19:56 | 1335.27 | 9.44 | 0.71% | Nasdaq | 19:56 | 2797.57 | 16.50 | 0.59% | FTSE 100 | 17:35 | 6009.92 | 101.16 | 1.71% | DAX | 18:00 | 7179.81 | 138.50 | 1.97% | CAC40 | 17:46 | 4054.76 | 65.58 | 1.64% | Nikkei | 08:26 | 9708.39 | -46.71 | -0.48% | Shanghai | 09:22 | 2967.00 | 37.11 | 1.27% | Hang-Seng | 10:36 | 23801.90 | 274.38 | 1.17% | All Ords | 07:38 | 4954.60 | 26.00 | 0.53% | NZSE 50 | 06:16 | 3452.14 | 12.29 | 0.36% |
| | Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | Gold | 19:59 | 1428.05 | -3.51 | -0.25% | Gold/Rand | 20:00 | 9561.37 | -132.03 | -1.36% | Gold/R kg | 20:00 | 307398 | -5878 | -1.88% | Silver | 19:59 | 37.6980 | .0580 | 0.15% | Platinum | 19:58 | 1765.50 | .50 | 0.03% | Palladium | 19:53 | 771.25 | 12.40 | 1.63% | R157 | 17:06 | 7.76 | -.06 | -0.77% | R204 | 17:06 | 8.51 | -.08 | -0.93% | Brent Crude | 19:56 | 117.82 | .63 | 0.54% | Rand / Dollar | 19:58 | 6.6954 | -0.0752 | -1.11% | Rand / Pound | 19:55 | 10.7534 | -0.0767 | -0.71% | Rand / Euro | 19:55 | 9.5170 | -0.0779 | -0.81% | Rand / NZD | 19:58 | 5.1382 | -0.0164 | -0.32% | Rand / AUD | 19:55 | 6.9535 | -0.0445 | -0.64% | Yen / Dollar | 19:56 | 84.2200 | 1.0400 | 1.25% | Euro / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.7031 | -0.0023 | -0.33% | Dollar / Euro | 19:59 | 1.4218 | 0.0045 | 0.32% | Pound / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.6204 | -0.0028 | -0.45% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today
Trading Statistics
Date | Adv. | Decl. | Unch. | Actives | Volume | Value | Trades | Orders |
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01/04/2011 | 200 | 136 | 81 | 417 | 278,937,111 | R13,076,718,578 | 106885 | 2036488 | 31/03/2011 | 190 | 154 | 86 | 430 | 317,069,149 | R16,915,811,553 | 121859 | 1962439 | 30/03/2011 | 280 | 92 | 72 | 444 | 292,592,061 | R16,907,826,853 | 134331 | 2036044 | 29/03/2011 | 198 | 121 | 77 | 396 | 228,178,567 | R10,740,638,240 | 88171 | 1886262 | 28/03/2011 | 137 | 179 | 82 | 398 | 203,154,801 | R8,181,057,585 | 74139 | 1841863 |
Index Summary Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Top 40 | 29,175.56 | 138.08 | 0.48% | Industrial | 32,195.04 | 243.44 | 0.76% | Mid Cap | 41,546.67 | 461.34 | 1.12% | Small Cap | 31,947.14 | 209.79 | 0.66% | Resource 20 | 57,362.89 | 121.58 | 0.21% | Industrial 25 | 26,956.17 | 189.26 | 0.71% | Financial 15 | 8,287.82 | 76.81 | 0.94% | Financial & Ind. 30 | 30,421.87 | 216.26 | 0.72% | All Share | 32,385.32 | 181.26 | 0.56% | Oil & Gas | 29,371.16 | -321.03 | -1.08% | Mining | 37,535.60 | 173.84 | 0.47% | Gold Mining | 2,770.90 | 33.27 | 1.22% | Platinum Mining | 76.66 | 1.34 | 1.78% | Oil & Gas Producers | 15,792.33 | -172.61 | -1.08% | Basic Materials | 31,683.56 | 139.26 | 0.44% | Chemicals | 13,277.24 | 35.69 | 0.27% | Forestry & Paper | 14,632.92 | 54.28 | 0.37% | Industrial Metals | 30,609.19 | 14.42 | 0.05% | Industrials | 27,856.13 | 446.26 | 1.63% | General Industrials | 77,409.88 | 1131.11 | 1.48% | Consumer Goods | 26,058.93 | -187.79 | -0.72% | Automobiles & Parts | 3,170.24 | 2.26 | 0.07% | Household Goods | 159.20 | -1 | -0.59% | Health Care | 31,506.26 | 228.13 | 0.73% | Beverages | 82,870.27 | -37.59 | -0.05% | Food Producers | 46,422.94 | 280.61 | 0.61% |
| | Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Personal Goods | 387.12 | -8.59 | -2.17% | Consumer Services | 53,340.81 | 1139.79 | 2.18% | General Retailers | 40,878.29 | 715.90 | 1.78% | Travel & Leisure | 3,664.56 | 24.06 | 0.66% | Media | 82,956.35 | 2596.08 | 3.23% | Support Services | 2,439.30 | 11.55 | 0.48% | Telecommunications | 67,421.63 | 945.90 | 1.42% | Financials | 21,782.94 | 173.69 | 0.80% | Banks | 41,565.32 | 453.82 | 1.10% | Non-life Insurance | 30,917.59 | 72.74 | 0.24% | Life Insurance | 16,272.83 | 182.76 | 1.14% | General Financial | 2,284.05 | 27.64 | 1.22% | Technology | 21,163.19 | 280.43 | 1.34% | SHARIAH TOP40 | 3,299.92 | 13 | 0.40% | FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL | 3,351.03 | 15 | 0.45% | COAL MINING | 23,221.44 | 636 | 2.81% | FTSE JSE Fledgling | 4,490.72 | 22 | 0.49% | FTSE/JSE Alt X | 1,014.42 | -7 | -0.65% | SA LISTED PROPERTY | 366.53 | | -0.31% | CAPPED PROPERTY | 304.90 | | -0.30% | RESOURCE | 31,680.53 | 80 | 0.25% | DIVIDEND PLUS | 168.51 | 2 | 1.05% | FTSE/JSE RAFI 40 | 6,807.72 | 39 | 0.58% | Capped Top 40 | 15,197.58 | 80 | 0.53% | Capped All Share | 16,297.06 | 96 | 0.59% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes** Code | Company Name | Status | Updated | NED | NEDBANK GROUP LTD | HOLD | 29 Mar | PAP | PANGBOURNE PROPERTIES LIM... | HOLD | 29 Mar | SBK | STANDARD BANK GROUP LIMIT... | SELL | 29 Mar | AIP | ADCOCK INGRAM HLGS LD | HOLD | 29 Mar | LHC | LIFE HEALTHCARE GRP HLDG ... | BUY | 29 Mar |
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Results Expected** Expected | Company Name | Fin. Date | 06 Apr 2011 | VIVIDEND | February 2011 (Interim) | 08 Apr 2011 | PHUMELELA | January 2011 (Interim) | 11 Apr 2011 | FAIRVEST | December 2010 (Interim) | 11 Apr 2011 | FAIRVESTP | December 2010 (Interim) |
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Recent Dividends** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | TELEMASTR | 11-04-01 | 11-04-19 | 11-05-03 | R 0.0400 | NTC PREF | 11-04-01 | 11-04-19 | 11-05-03 | R 3.4161 | CAPITEC | 11-03-30 | 11-06-17 | 11-06-27 | R 2.0500 | ADVTECH | 11-03-28 | 11-04-14 | 11-04-26 | R 0.0250 | ADVTECH | 11-03-28 | 11-04-14 | 11-04-26 | R 0.1100 |
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Ex Div** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | MTN GROUP | 11-03-09 | 11-03-25 | 11-04-04 | R 3.4900 | ASTRAPAKP | 11-03-04 | 11-03-25 | 11-04-04 | R 3.4269 | STANBANK-P | 11-03-03 | 11-03-25 | 11-04-04 | R 3.3790 | SASOL | 11-03-07 | 11-04-01 | 11-04-11 | R 3.1000 | EXXARO | 11-02-24 | 11-04-01 | 11-04-11 | R 3.0000 |
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Upcoming AGMs** Code | Company Name | Date | Status | WNH | Winhold Ltd | 07/04/2011 | Unconfirmed | MMH | Miranda Mineral Holdings Ltd | 07/04/2011 | Confirmed |
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