Wednesday, 24 August 2016 - 20:04
Charts
Todays Sharenet VIEWS Seed Investments Equity markets have been characterised by increased volatility in the recent past. Associated with this is the short-term underperformance in the markets, which investors are nervous about especially with more uncertainty going forward.
Figure 1 below illustrates how market underperformance and increased volatility have historically been associated using the FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns data.
Figure 1: Rolling 1 Year Return & Rolling 1 Year Standard Deviation of the FTSE/JSE All Share... Full story
Seed Weekly - Qui legit, adtendite: Let the reader beware
This article is rather paradoxical in that I am writing of the need to be circumspect about accepting everything that you read as fact.
The following email that I received highlights the issue of perspective:
A biker is riding by the zoo in Washington, DC when he sees a little girl leaning into the lion's cage. Suddenly, the lion grabs her by the collar of her jacket and tries to pull her inside to slaughter her, under the eyes of her screaming parents.
He jumps off his bike, runs to the cage and hits the lion square on the nose with a powerful punch.
Whimpering from the pain the lion jumps back, letting go of the girl, and the biker brings the girl to her terrified parents, who thank him endlessly. A reporter has watched the whole event.
The reporter, addressing the biker says, 'Sir, this was the most gallant and bravest thing I've seen a man do in my whole life.'
The biker replies, 'Why, it was nothing, really. The lion was behind bars. I just saw this little kid in danger, and acted as I felt right.'
The reporter says, 'Well, I'll make sure this won't go unnoticed. I'm a journalist, you know, and tomorrow's paper will have this story on the front page. So, what do you do for a living?'
The biker replies "I'm a U.S. Marine, and a volunteer for the Republican party.”
The following morning the biker buys the paper and reads, on the front page:
“U.S. MARINE ASSAULTS AFRICAN IMMIGRANT AND STEALS HIS LUNCH”
We can see that the perspective, pet hates and prejudices of a writer are very important, these determine which facts are left in the story, which facts are left out and which facts are emphasised.
“Hindsight bias” is another problem a reader often faces. When writing an article, a writer has all the facts about what happened and why it happened in front of him. In his book “Fooled by Randomness”, Nassim Taleb says that “A more vicious effect of hindsight bias is that those who are very good at predicting the past will think of themselves as very good at predicting the future…”. Whilst looking at the past can help us understand why things happened, the future remains unpredictable so take all predictions with a pinch of salt.
The last problem that I often have with financial articles as a financial advisor, is that the writer is often expressing an opinion on a very limited set of facts and he does not have to sit with the consequences of “unbundling” a long term plan when he changes his mind a year or two down the line.
I am the first person to emphasise the importance of reading to broaden your horizons and acquire new knowledge, I do however think that it is important to add a proviso “Qui legit, adtendite: Let the reader beware”.
Think carefully about what you are reading, think about the writers perspective and why he is writing what he is, and lastly a good rule of thumb is if the writer is making predictions / forecasts about what is going to happen in future, you can probably ignore what he has to say.
Kind regards,
Barry Hugo
***SEED IS HIRING: Click here to view vacancy
Tel +27 21 914 4966
Fax +27 21 914 4912
Email info@seedinvestments.co.za
Please click here to view our disclaimer. For more information please visit our website.
Wed, 24 Aug 2016
Top News
South Africa's economy, the most developed on the continent, will be destroyed if President Jacob Zuma fires Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, ex-finance minister Trevor Manuel said on Wednesday. Full story
South Africa's PPC priced its 4 billion rand ($281.5 million) rights issue at a 55.5 percent discount on Wednesday as the cement maker fights for survival in the face of depressed domestic growth. Full story |
|
A powerful earthquake flattened mountain towns in central Italy on Wednesday, killing at least 73 people, burying some alive in their sleep under mounds of rubble, as exhausted volunteers and firefighters raced to free those still trapped. Full storySyrian rebels backed by Turkish special forces, tanks and warplanes entered one of Islamic State's last strongholds on the Turkish-Syrian border on Wednesday, in Turkey's first major U.S.-backed incursion into its southern neighbour. Full storyFrench naval contractor DCNS said on Wednesday it may have been the victim of "economic warfare" after secrets about its Scorpene submarines being built in India were leaked. Full story |
|
|
SA Business | South African assets slumped further on Wednesday after Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said he would not appear before police who had. . . Full story | | South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan will not present himself to police on Thursday as he had nothing further to say. . . Full story | | South Africa's headline inflation has settled near the upper end of the central bank's target band of between 3 and 6. . . Full story | | South Africa's rand tumbled to its weakest in a month and yields on bonds spiked on Wednesday after a special investigations. . . Full story |
|
| South African assets
slumped further on Wednesday after Finance Minister Pravin
Gordhan said he would not appear before police who had requested
him to. . . Full story | | South African engineering and construction group Murray and Roberts (M&R) said on Wednesday it was in talks to sell its infrastructure. . . Full story | | South Africa's Finance
Minister Pravin Gordhan said on Wednesday he was under no
obligation to present himself to police because he was not. . . Full story | | South Africa's Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said on Wednesday that an investigative unit set-up while he was head of the tax. . . Full story |
|
| South African engineering and building group Murray and Roberts (M&R) said on Wednesday it is in talks to sell its infrastructure and building business.. . . Full story | | South African assets slumped on Wednesday after an elite police unit summoned Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan over an investigation into a suspected rogue spy unit in the tax service, fuelling speculation that there was a plot to oust him.. . . Full story |
|
Company News | PPC has released quarter one results ending 30 June 2016 in order to support the rights offer process with up to. . . Full story | | Shareholders of PPC ("Shareholders") are referred to the Rights Offer declaration announcement by PPC, released on the Stock Exchange News Service. . . Full story | | Shareholders are advised that the voting results for the Annual General Meeting (ôAGMö) of Telkom held at 10h00 on Wednesday, 24. . . Full story | | Shareholders are advised that Mr David Woollam has given notice to the company that he will not be available for re-. . . Full story |
|
| Shareholders are referred to the announcement dated 30 June 2016 containing details of the Proposed Transaction and are hereby advised that. . . Full story | | Group revenue increased by 6%, from R2 278 million for the three months ended 30 June 2015 to R2 425 million. . . Full story | | Shareholders of PPC (Shareholders) are advised that the company has finalised its audited annual financial statements for the year ended 31. . . Full story | | Shareholders are advised that:
* the companyÆs Integrated Annual Review and Annual Financial Statements (collectively ôthe Annual Reportö) in respect of. . . Full story |
|
Company Results | Revenue for the year ended 30 June 2016 shot up by 8% to R118.9 billion (2015: R110.5 billion). Operating profit came. . . Full story | | Revenue for the year lowered to R33.755 billion (2015: R43.930 billion). Gross earnings increased to R2.495 billion (2015: R2.364 billion), net. . . Full story | | Sale of merchandise grew 14.4% to R130.0 billion (2015: R113.7 billion). Gross profit was 15.8% higher at R27.2 billion (2015: R23.5. . . Full story | | Revenue for the year increased to R1.7 billion (2015: R1.4 billion). Operating profit grew by 42.5% to R157 million (2015: R110.1. . . Full story |
World Markets (Spot Prices)
Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | JSE Overall | 17:00 | 53562.80 | 605.00 | 1.14% | JSE Top 40 | 17:00 | 46858.57 | 719.24 | 1.56% | JSE Gold | 17:00 | 2545.86 | 67.01 | 2.70% | JSE Financial | 17:00 | 41077.20 | -926.66 | -2.21% | JSE Industrial | 17:00 | 79875.02 | 1500.24 | 1.91% | JSE Indust 25 | 17:00 | 71734.04 | 1545.70 | 2.20% | JSE Resource | 17:00 | 32578.76 | 895.27 | 2.83% | DJ Futures | 19:58 | 18499.00 | -29.00 | -0.16% | DJ Ind | 20:02 | 18520.34 | -26.96 | -0.15% | SP 500 | 20:02 | 2182.44 | -4.46 | -0.20% | Nasdaq | 20:02 | 5247.31 | -12.77 | -0.24% | FTSE 100 | 17:21 | 6826.91 | -41.60 | -0.61% | DAX | 18:08 | 10622.97 | 30.09 | 0.28% | CAC40 | 18:08 | 4435.47 | 14.02 | 0.32% | Nikkei | 08:48 | 16597.30 | 99.94 | 0.61% | Shanghai | 09:32 | 3085.88 | -3.83 | -0.12% | Hang-Seng | 10:28 | 22820.78 | -178.15 | -0.77% | All Ords | 08:38 | 5653.60 | 6.50 | 0.12% | NZSE 50 | 09:10 | 7410.30 | -57.03 | -0.76% |
| | Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | Gold $ | 20:04 | 1325.79 | -11.51 | -0.86% | Gold R | 20:03 | 18786.85 | 74.28 | 0.40% | Gold R/kg | 20:02 | 603757 | 2148 | 0.36% | Silver $ | 20:04 | 18.5440 | -0.2350 | -1.25% | Platinum $ | 20:04 | 1078.43 | -21.07 | -1.92% | Palladium $ | 20:04 | 682.59 | -13.91 | -2.00% | R186 | 17:08 | 9.05 | 0.45 | 5.23% | R204 | 17:07 | 8.00 | 0.35 | 4.51% | R207 | 17:07 | 8.24 | 0.40 | 5.17% | Brent Crude | 19:58 | 49.00 | -0.16 | -0.33% | USD / ZAR | 20:04 | 14.1656 | 0.1728 | 1.23% | GBP / ZAR | 20:00 | 18.7191 | 0.2731 | 1.48% | EUR/ ZAR | 20:00 | 15.9540 | 0.1328 | 0.84% | NZD/ ZAR | 20:03 | 10.3652 | 0.1582 | 1.55% | AUD / ZAR | 20:00 | 10.7906 | 0.1265 | 1.19% | USD / JPY | 20:04 | 100.4820 | 0.2840 | 0.28% | EUR / USD | 20:04 | 1.1260 | -0.0043 | -0.38% | GBP / USD | 20:04 | 1.3233 | 0.0035 | 0.26% |
|
Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today
Trading Statistics
Date | Adv. | Decl. | Unch. | Actives | Volume | Value | Trades | Orders |
---|
24/08/2016 | 176 | 188 | 52 | 416 | 402,858,005 | R36,962,273,581 | 422301 | 727893 | 23/08/2016 | 186 | 159 | 64 | 409 | 239,403,994 | R19,392,835,148 | 283425 | 2237650 | 22/08/2016 | 139 | 200 | 64 | 403 | 190,479,330 | R15,788,853,031 | 254994 | 2094546 | 19/08/2016 | 155 | 193 | 55 | 403 | 264,027,989 | R20,371,542,180 | 295469 | 2212590 | 18/08/2016 | 225 | 116 | 55 | 396 | 221,587,157 | R20,367,551,431 | 249544 | 2103732 |
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Index Summary Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Top 40 | 46,858.57 | 719.24 | 1.56% | Industrial | 79,875.02 | 1500.24 | 1.91% | Mid Cap | 79,346.53 | -632.28 | -0.79% | Small Cap | 61,581.25 | -358.27 | -0.58% | Resource 20 | 32,578.76 | 895.27 | 2.83% | Industrial 25 | 71,734.04 | 1545.70 | 2.20% | Financial 15 | 14,948.59 | -378.93 | -2.47% | Financial & Ind. 30 | 73,930.81 | 1053.33 | 1.45% | All Share | 53,562.80 | 605.00 | 1.14% | Oil & Gas | 7,195.69 | .00 | 0.00% | Mining | 24,522.88 | 640.32 | 2.68% | Gold Mining | 2,545.86 | 67.01 | 2.70% | Platinum Mining | 27.89 | .32 | 1.16% | GENERAL MINING | 5,992.91 | 170.04 | 2.92% | Oil & Gas Producers | 38,689.88 | .00 | 0.00% | Basic Materials | 23,147.30 | 595.51 | 2.64% | Chemicals | 19,847.98 | 334.53 | 1.71% | Forestry & Paper | 51,714.61 | 1867.93 | 3.75% | Industrial Metals | 10,249.95 | 47.52 | 0.47% | Industrials | 47,647.02 | -778.85 | -1.61% | General Industrials | 184.06 | -3.37 | -1.80% | Consumer Goods | 74,456.53 | 2686.21 | 3.74% | Automobiles & Parts | 4,279.83 | -97.37 | -2.22% | Household Goods | 638.24 | 4 | 0.70% | Health Care | 9,865.99 | -50.33 | -0.51% | Beverages | 279.07 | 14.23 | 5.37% |
| | Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Food Producers | 9,709.94 | -39.36 | -0.40% | Personal Goods | 863.63 | 30.96 | 3.72% | Consumer Services | 19,606.72 | 308.12 | 1.60% | General Retailers | 7,862.64 | -255.72 | -3.15% | Travel & Leisure | 6,647.71 | -96.88 | -1.44% | Media | 522.67 | 16.87 | 3.34% | Support Services | 2,087.41 | 43.23 | 2.11% | Telecommunications | 6,970.06 | -96.34 | -1.36% | Financials | 41,077.20 | -926.66 | -2.21% | Banks | 6,999.39 | -378.29 | -5.13% | Non-life Insurance | 56,148.86 | -893.27 | -1.57% | Life Insurance | 37,125.72 | -312.34 | -0.83% | General Financial | 3,973.11 | -25.17 | -0.63% | Technology | 54,006.92 | -300.29 | -0.55% | SHARIAH TOP40 | 3,201.17 | 45 | 1.44% | FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL | 3,590.36 | 36 | 1.00% | COAL MINING | 10,193.05 | 97 | 0.96% | FTSE JSE Fledgling | 7,278.34 | 19 | 0.26% | FTSE/JSE Alt X | 1,398.36 | 15 | 1.11% | SA LISTED PROPERTY | 648.59 | -16.91 | -2.54% | CAPPED PROPERTY | 549.15 | | -1.33% | RESOURCE | 18,469.19 | 475 | 2.64% | DIVIDEND PLUS | 206.78 | -4 | -1.78% | FTSE/JSE RAFI 40 | 9,710.56 | 60 | 0.62% | Capped Top 40 | 24,910.11 | 289 | 1.18% | Capped All Share | 27,303.20 | 252 | 0.93% | JSE TABACO | 11,510.26 | 456 | 4.12% |
|
Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes** Code | Company Name | Status | Updated | AGL | ANGLO AMERICAN PLC | SELL | 22/08/2016 | GFI | GOLD FIELDS LIMITED | HOLD | 22/08/2016 | TRU | TRUWORTHS INTERNATIONAL L... | BUY | 22/08/2016 | SBK | STANDARD BANK GROUP LIMIT... | SELL | 19/08/2016 | BGA | BARCLAYS AFRICA GRP LTD | HOLD | 19/08/2016 |
|
|
Results Expected** Expected | Company Name | Fin. Date | 25/08/2016 | ARB | June 2016 (Final) | 25/08/2016 | GRINDROD | June 2016 (Interim) | 25/08/2016 | GRINDROD PREF | June 2016 (Interim) | 25/08/2016 | ILIAD | June 2016 (Interim) | 25/08/2016 | ILIADA | June 2016 (Interim) |
|
Recent Dividends** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | TRNPACO | 23/08/16 | 13/09/16 | 19/09/16 | ZAR 0.9800 | SHOPRIT | 23/08/16 | 06/09/16 | 12/09/16 | ZAR 2.9600 | IMPERIAL | 23/08/16 | 20/09/16 | 26/09/16 | ZAR 4.2500 | IMPERIALP | 23/08/16 | 20/09/16 | 26/09/16 | ZAR 4.2578 | ADVTECH | 22/08/16 | 06/09/16 | 12/09/16 | ZAR 0.1350 |
|
|
Ex Div** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | MASONITE | 10/08/16 | 23/08/16 | 29/08/16 | ZAR 30.0000 | FIRSTRANDB-P | 01/08/16 | 23/08/16 | 29/08/16 | ZAR 3.9472 | MTN GROUP | 05/08/16 | 23/08/16 | 29/08/16 | ZAR 2.5000 | TOWER | 04/08/16 | 23/08/16 | 29/08/16 | ZAR 0.4682 | NEDBANK-P | 01/08/16 | 23/08/16 | 29/08/16 | ZAR 0.4275 |
|
Upcoming AGMs** Code | Company Name | Date | Status | TKGA | Telkom SA SOC Ltd. | 24/08/2016 | Confirmed | TKGB | Telkom SA SOC Ltd. | 24/08/2016 | Confirmed | TKG | Telkom SA SOC Ltd. | 24/08/2016 | Confirmed | GDN | Gooderson Leisure Corporation Ltd. | 24/08/2016 | Confirmed | RDI | Rockwell Diamonds Inc. | 24/08/2016 | Confirmed |
|
|
Stock Exchange News Service Click here for more SENS news
|