Tuesday, 19 February 2013 - 20:00
Charts
Betting on last year?s winner There is always a continuous search for excellent performing funds in which to invest. But can we just go by investing into previous year’s top performing fund? Is past performance and indication of future performance? Somewhere on most funds’ fact sheet the following is stated: “Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results” or something to a similar affect.
The table below shows the Top 10 performing General Equity funds over the last 5 years. The oldest share class was used and the fund needed to exist for the full calendar year to be included.
Over the past 5 years 35 funds were at one point in the Top 10. 21 of those funds were only once in the Top 10, 13 funds were twice and only one fund appeared three times. The Foord Equity fund was the only fund that was in the Top 10 for three consecutive years, from 2010 to 2012.
The question we then asked is should a fund appear in the Top 10, does it subsequently remain in the top quartile or does it drop to the lower quartiles? The table below indicated the quartile rankings of the Top 10 funds of 2008 over the following 4 years.
The following year, only one fund was able to remain in the top quartile. Most of the funds dropped to the 3rd quartile. By 2012, 5 years later, half the funds that were in the Top 10 in 2008 were in the bottom quartile.
If one is not able to predict the future winner from just past performance, how does an investor select a fund to invest into?
Rather than focusing on which funds was at the top of a certain year more time needs to be taken to understand the investment philosophy and process of the manager. If this is understood a better judgement call can be made to invest into the fund.
By understanding the investment process of the fund manager you would have a better understanding of which market conditions the fund will perform and underperform.
Instead of only focusing on the top performing manager we also ascertain how consistent the fund manager’s performance is, aiming for a fund to be consecutively in the top two quartiles rather than the best performing fund over just one period.
With the end of the financial year in sight, this is a friendly reminder to top up your retirement annuity.
As always we are available for any questions.
Kind regards
Gerbrandt Kruger
www.seedinvestments.co.za
info@seedinvestments.co.za
021 914 4966
Tue, 19 Feb 2013
Top News
South African stocks rose for the first time in four sessions on Tuesday, lifted by a rebound in shares of mining companies including Anglo American Platinum. Full story
Anglo American Platinum expects operations at its South African mines to resume on Wednesday after workers staged a one-day walk-out following union violence at one of its mines, a spokeswoman said. Full story |
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"Blade Runner" Oscar Pistorius put on his artificial legs and walked across his bedroom before firing four shots through a locked toilet door, killing his cowering girlfriend in cold blood, prosecutors said on Tuesday. Full storyPrime Minister Boiko Borisov
sought to calm mass protests on Tuesday by promising to slash
electricity prices and punish foreign-owned power companies,
setting Bulgaria on a collision course with EU partner the Czech
Republic. Full storyA Syrian army rocket attack on a rebel-held district in the city of Aleppo killed at least 20 people and another 25 were missing, opposition activists said on Tuesday. Full story |
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Markets | U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday as
merger activity suggested the market could offer investors still
more value even as the S&P 500 and. . . Full story | | European shares rebounded on
Tuesday from three days of losses, with stronger-than-expected
German sentiment data prompting investors to return to sectors
like autos and. . . Full story | | Britain's blue chip index posted
its highest close in five years on Tuesday in a broad-based
surge across all major sectors, as a. . . Full story | | Global stock markets rose on
Tuesday, with U.S. stocks boosted by merger and acquisition
activity, while a pick-up in German economic sentiment supported
European. . . Full story |
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| Gold moved lower on Tuesday as
signs economic recovery on both sides of the Atlantic was well
underway diverted Western investors' attention to. . . Full story | | The yen climbed on Tuesday
after two days of losses after Japanese Finance Minister Taro
Aso said he was not considering buying foreign. . . Full story | | U.S. stocks opened slightly
higher on Tuesday, putting the S&P 500 on track to extend its
seven-week winning streak on increased mergers and. . . Full story | | European shares rose on Tuesday,
lifted by gains at food group Danone and fresh signs
of a German economic recovery, although broader market. . . Full story |
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SA Business | South Africa's rand softened against the dollar on Tuesday amid fears of more trouble in the mining sector after Anglo American Platinum's said workers at its Rustenburg operations were likely to stay away following violence the previous day.. . . Full story |
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| BMW is recalling about 750,000
of its vehicles in the United States, Japan, Canada and South
Africa due the chance of an electrical failure that may cause
the cars to stall unexpectedly, U.S. regulators and the company
said.. . . Full story |
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Company News | Mvelaserve released a trading statement on SENS on 6 February 2013 ("the first trading statement"), which reported an expected increase of. . . Full story | | Shareholders are referred to the announcement released on SENS on 21 January 2013 relating to the extension granted by the Takeover. . . Full story | | Following the announcement that Mr Chris van den Heever has been seconded to Rainbow from Remgro Ltd. for a period of. . . Full story | | Shareholders are referred to the cautionary announcement released by the Company on SENS on 21 November 2012 and renewed on 8. . . Full story |
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| Shareholders were advised that Spur is expecting to report growth of between 32% and 37% in earnings per share and headline. . . Full story | | Further to the trading statement released on SENS on 25 January 2013, shareholders were advised that the group anticipates continuing operations. . . Full story | | Anglo draws attention to an announcement issued by Anglo American Platinum Ltd., the text of which is set out below:
An incident. . . Full story | | An incident occurred today at the company's Siphumelele mine in the Rustenburg area, involving members of the Workers Committee and NUM. . . Full story |
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Company Results | Profit before interest and income taxes for the quarter rose to USD98 000 (2011: loss of USD5.9 million), while total loss. . . Full story | | Revenue for the interim period ended 31 December 2012 jumped by 55% to R7.9 billion (2011: R5.1 billion). Earnings before interest,. . . Full story | | Insurance premium revenue increased by 2% to R608.9 million (R598.5 million). Net attributable profit improved by 42% to R147.6 million (R104.3. . . Full story | | Sale of merchandise grew 13.81% to R46.7 billion (R41.1 billion) whilst gross profit increased by 17.06% to R9.6 billion (R8.2 billion).. . . Full story |
World Markets (Spot Prices)
Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | JSE Overall | 17:00 | 40732.52 | 220.00 | 0.54% | JSE Top 40 | 17:00 | 36328.85 | 235.00 | 0.65% | JSE Gold | 17:00 | 2068.78 | -18.00 | -0.87% | JSE Financial | 17:00 | 30473.41 | 179.00 | 0.59% | JSE Industrial | 17:00 | 48908.19 | 295.00 | 0.61% | JSE Indust 25 | 17:00 | 42290.60 | 292.00 | 0.70% | JSE Resource | 17:00 | 53212.83 | 290.00 | 0.55% | DJ Futures | 19:48 | 14000.00 | 46.00 | 0.33% | DJ Ind | 19:52 | 14022.16 | 40.40 | 0.29% | SP 500 | 19:52 | 1527.00 | 7.21 | 0.47% | Nasdaq | 19:52 | 3202.76 | 10.73 | 0.34% | FTSE 100 | 18:35 | 6379.07 | 60.88 | 0.96% | DAX | 19:10 | 7752.45 | 123.72 | 1.62% | CAC40 | 19:10 | 3735.82 | 68.78 | 1.88% | Nikkei | 08:32 | 11372.34 | -35.53 | -0.31% | Shanghai | 09:28 | 2382.91 | -38.64 | -1.60% | Hang-Seng | 10:28 | 23143.91 | -238.03 | -1.02% | All Ords | 07:41 | 5101.00 | 18.10 | 0.36% | NZSE 50 | 06:48 | 4244.21 | 29.73 | 0.71% |
| | Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | Gold $ | 19:59 | 1605.30 | -4.20 | -0.26% | Gold R | 19:58 | 14206.72 | -92.19 | -0.64% | Gold R/kg | 19:52 | 456822 | -3205 | -0.70% | Silver $ | 19:59 | 29.4000 | -.5200 | -1.74% | Platinum $ | 19:59 | 1693.50 | 1.00 | 0.06% | Palladium $ | 19:59 | 763.00 | 1.40 | 0.18% | R157 | 17:19 | 5.33 | -.01 | -0.28% | R204 | 17:19 | 6.05 | -.01 | -0.25% | R207 | 17:28 | 6.29 | -.03 | -0.47% | Brent Crude | 19:48 | 116.88 | -.78 | -0.66% | Rand / Dollar | 19:59 | 8.8543 | -0.0306 | -0.34% | Rand / Pound | 19:55 | 13.6181 | -0.1007 | -0.73% | Rand / Euro | 19:55 | 11.8513 | -0.0185 | -0.16% | Rand / NZD | 19:58 | 7.5126 | 0.0053 | 0.07% | Rand / AUD | 19:55 | 9.1703 | 0.0075 | 0.08% | Yen / Dollar | 19:59 | 93.5100 | -0.3760 | -0.40% | Euro / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.7468 | -0.0019 | -0.25% | Dollar / Euro | 19:59 | 1.3386 | 0.0033 | 0.25% | Pound / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.6484 | 0.0022 | 0.34% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today
Trading Statistics
Date | Adv. | Decl. | Unch. | Actives | Volume | Value | Trades | Orders |
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19/02/2013 | 190 | 164 | 66 | 420 | 177,223,565 | R10,774,735,179 | 122698 | 413209 | 18/02/2013 | 158 | 198 | 61 | 417 | 166,760,651 | R10,748,928,958 | 124125 | 1254620 | 15/02/2013 | 165 | 177 | 64 | 406 | 165,769,944 | R10,799,491,846 | 131387 | 1451014 | 14/02/2013 | 140 | 176 | 91 | 407 | 198,583,575 | R12,905,546,326 | 157394 | 1834219 | 13/02/2013 | 171 | 152 | 80 | 403 | 185,714,105 | R11,170,181,990 | 120098 | 262340 |
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Index Summary Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Top 40 | 36,328.00 | 235.00 | 0.65% | Industrial | 48,908.00 | 295.00 | 0.61% | Mid Cap | 54,967.00 | -57.00 | -0.11% | Small Cap | 42,920.00 | 231.00 | 0.54% | Resource 20 | 53,212.00 | 290.00 | 0.55% | Industrial 25 | 42,290.00 | 292.00 | 0.70% | Financial 15 | 11,461.00 | 68.00 | 0.60% | Financial & Ind. 30 | 46,166.00 | 348.00 | 0.76% | All Share | 40,732.00 | 220.00 | 0.54% | Oil & Gas | 30,024.00 | 122.00 | 0.41% | Mining | 34,028.00 | 135.00 | 0.40% | Gold Mining | 2,068.00 | -18.00 | -0.87% | Platinum Mining | 54.00 | .00 | 0.11% | GENERAL MINING | 9,258.00 | 70.00 | 0.77% | Oil & Gas Producers | 16,143.00 | 65.00 | 0.41% | Basic Materials | 29,408.00 | 129.00 | 0.44% | Chemicals | 18,072.00 | -52.00 | -0.29% | Forestry & Paper | 20,381.00 | 298.00 | 1.49% | Industrial Metals | 29,237.00 | 135.00 | 0.47% | Industrials | 39,411.00 | 386.00 | 0.99% | General Industrials | 114.00 | 1.00 | 1.76% | Consumer Goods | 44,893.00 | 561.00 | 1.27% | Automobiles & Parts | 7,561.00 | 16.00 | 0.21% | Household Goods | 190.00 | 0 | -0.36% | Health Care | 55,482.00 | 517.00 | 0.94% | Beverages | 151.00 | 2.00 | 1.80% |
| | Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Food Producers | 68,741.00 | -889.00 | -1.28% | Personal Goods | 736.00 | 16.00 | 2.29% | Consumer Services | 81,789.00 | -571.00 | -0.69% | General Retailers | 63,711.00 | -800.00 | -1.24% | Travel & Leisure | 5,079.00 | 2.00 | 0.05% | Media | 131.00 | 1.00 | 0.91% | Support Services | 2,362.00 | -22.00 | -0.94% | Telecommunications | 84,364.00 | 78.00 | 0.09% | Financials | 30,473.00 | 179.00 | 0.59% | Banks | 53,860.00 | 243.00 | 0.45% | Non-life Insurance | 48,236.00 | 599.00 | 1.26% | Life Insurance | 27,105.00 | 253.00 | 0.94% | General Financial | 2,844.00 | -2.00 | -0.10% | Technology | 34,341.00 | 293.00 | 0.86% | SHARIAH TOP40 | 3,554.00 | 25 | 0.72% | FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL | 3,662.00 | 21 | 0.60% | COAL MINING | 23,298.00 | 276 | 1.20% | FTSE JSE Fledgling | 5,979.00 | -23 | -0.39% | FTSE/JSE Alt X | 806.00 | 23 | 2.97% | SA LISTED PROPERTY | 519.00 | | 1.09% | CAPPED PROPERTY | 420.00 | | 0.79% | RESOURCE | 29,221.00 | 117 | 0.40% | DIVIDEND PLUS | 217.00 | 0 | 0.43% | FTSE/JSE RAFI 40 | 8,336.00 | 55 | 0.67% | Capped Top 40 | 19,122.00 | 116 | 0.61% | Capped All Share | 20,593.00 | 108 | 0.53% | JSE TABACO | 5,937.00 | 55 | 0.94% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes** Code | Company Name | Status | Updated | IPL | IMPERIAL HOLDINGS LTD | HOLD | 21/01/2013 | BIL | BHP BILLITON PLC | HOLD | 21/01/2013 | TRU | TRUWORTHS INTERNATIONAL L... | SELL | 21/01/2013 | AMS | ANGLO AMERICAN PLATINUM C... | HOLD | 21/01/2013 | ANG | ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LIMITED | HOLD | 21/01/2013 |
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Results Expected** Expected | Company Name | Fin. Date | 20/02/2013 | CAPITAL | December 2012 (Final) | 20/02/2013 | CAXTON | December 2012 (Interim) | 20/02/2013 | CAXTON6%CPP | December 2012 (Interim) | 20/02/2013 | JDG CONV | December 2012 (Interim) | 20/02/2013 | JDGROUP | December 2012 (Interim) |
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Recent Dividends** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | SHOPRIT 6% | 15/02/2013 | 01/03/2013 | 11/03/2013 | R 0.0600 | SHOPRIT 5% | 15/02/2013 | 01/03/2013 | 11/03/2013 | R 0.0500 | SHPRT 2ND5 | 15/02/2013 | 01/03/2013 | 11/03/2013 | R 0.0500 | SHPRT 3RD5 | 15/02/2013 | 01/03/2013 | 11/03/2013 | R 0.0500 | ANGLO | 15/02/2013 | 14/03/2013 | 25/04/2013 | R 0.5300 |
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Ex Div** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | FIRSTRANDB-P | 01/02/2013 | 15/02/2013 | 25/02/2013 | R 3.2025 | CAPITAL | 30/01/2013 | 15/02/2013 | 25/02/2013 | R 0.3650 | CULINAN5.5 | 01/02/2013 | 15/02/2013 | 25/02/2013 | R 0.0550 |
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Upcoming AGMs** Code | Company Name | Date | Status | AWT | Awethu Breweries Ltd. | 20/02/2013 | Confirmed | CUL | Cullinan Holdings Ltd. | 22/02/2013 | Confirmed | CULP | Cullinan Holdings Ltd. | 22/02/2013 | Confirmed | CUP2 | Cullinan Holdings Ltd. | 22/02/2013 | Confirmed | CND | Conduit Capital Ltd. | 22/02/2013 | Confirmed |
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