Monday, 12 November 2012 - 20:00
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Golden Decade We at Seed Investments write weekly newsletters and also compile a monthly market overview. Please click here to sign up on our mailing list to receive the emails directly to your mailbox.
We have recently compiled a brief overview on the Seed Absolute Return Fund, taking a look at the strategies implemented in the fund, who should invest in this fund and why. Click here to go to Seed's Articles and Research and feel free download the review and some of our fund fact sheets.
South African investors have experienced a golden decade. All asset classes have delivered high real returns over the past 10 years. The table below shows the annualised return of the different asset classes in South Africa over different periods.
From the table above we can see that over the last 10 years South Africa markets did very well, even when taking the market crash in 2008 into account. If you were invested into property you would have doubled your investment every 3 years on average.
The graph below shows how our market fared against its global counterparts. The values are all in rand terms.
From the graph above we can see that an investor would have been better off locally than abroad. The table below shows the cumulative and annualised returns for the different indices.
Over the past 10 years a few things worked in South Africa’s favour:
• The rand strengthened over the period from a very weak base
• Our economy was able to defy the naysayers
• Corporate earnings increased
• Ratings of South African companies increased (i.e. PE ratio’s increased)
• Bonds and properties re-rated
• Offshore assets performed badly due to high starting valuations and not due to poor earnings growth
Going forward can we expect another golden decade?
Unfortunately the picture is not as rosy. While some factors are improving, other factors are deteriorating. The rand is currently very strong and our local assets are expensive relative to their starting point 10 years ago. South Africa’s competitiveness has also been declining due to:
• High real wage increases
• Decreases in productivity
• Rigid labour laws
• Failing education system
It is very unlikely that we will be spoiled with similar returns over the next decade. This doesn’t mean that one should disinvest from the markets, as an investment into cash will guarantee that one loses capital on a purchasing power basis. Everyone needs to adjust their expected returns going forward and relook their investment plan to ensure that there’s enough saved up for the future.
Kind regards,
Gerbrandt Kruger
www.seedinvestments.co.za
info@seedinvestments.co.za
021 914 4966
Mon, 12 Nov 2012
Top News
Britain's FTSE 100
finished flat but outperformed European stocks on Monday, led by
a financials sector that bucked the broader European trend as
investors sought refuge from euro zone debt distress. Full story
Vodacom is looking for acquisitions in sub-Saharan Africa, a sign the South African mobile operator aims to be a bigger player in the fast-growing continent. Full story |
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Spanish Economy Minister Luis de
Guindos promised on Monday that no needy family will go homeless
over mortgage arrears, responding to public fury at a
homeowner's suicide as she was being evicted. Full storySyria's newly named
opposition leader, a soft-spoken cleric backed by Washington and
the Gulf Arab states, launched his quest on Monday for
international recognition of a government-in-waiting to topple
President Bashar al-Assad. Full storySporadic missile fire from the
Gaza Strip hit southern Israel on Monday for a fourth straight
day, with Egypt trying to secure a truce and Israel warning it
was poised to toughen its response. Full story |
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Markets | European shares ended lower for a
fourth straight session on Monday, with mounting uncertainties
related to a looming U.S. fiscal crisis and the. . . Full story | | U.S. stocks fell on Monday,
extending their losses after suffering the worst weekly decline
in five months, as lingering worries about the upcoming. . . Full story | | European shares ended lower for a
fourth straight session on Monday, with mounting uncertainties
related to a looming U.S. fiscal crisis and the. . . Full story | | U.S. stocks edged down in light
holiday trade and world shares stabilized o n M onday after three
straight sessions of losses as. . . Full story |
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| Gold edged up to near a
three-week peak on Monday, supported by expectations U.S.
monetary policy will remain ultra-loose, while investors also
bought the. . . Full story | | U.S. stock indexes rose at the
open on Monday, coming off the worst weekly drop since early
June, on upbeat economic data from. . . Full story | | Britain's top share index edged
higher on Monday, helped by gains for advertising firm WPP
after French peer Publicis said on Sunday. . . Full story | | European stock index futures
signalled a lower open on Monday, adding to last week's losses,
as fears over the U.S. fiscal cliff and. . . Full story |
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SA Business | South African police said on Monday officers had fired rubber bullets to disperse protesting miners who barricaded a road leading to. . . Full story | | Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) has extended the deadline to Wednesday for striking workers at several of its South African mines to. . . Full story | | South Africa's rand kicked off the week on a firmer footing against the dollar on Monday and should largely drift within. . . Full story | | South Africa's Tongaat Hulett reported a 28 percent rise in first-half profit on Monday, benefiting from higher sugar and industrial land. . . Full story |
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| Impala Platinum Holdings Limited, the world's No.2 platinum producer, expects the market for the precious metal with industrial uses to be in deficit for 2012 and the next few years, a. . . Full story | | Running
around the clock and selling everything it can build, Hyundai
Motor's Indian factory is bursting at the seams. But
as demand grows and rivals scale up, the car maker has chosen to
take its. . . Full story | | Running
around the clock and selling everything it can build, Hyundai
Motor's Indian factory is bursting at the seams. But
as demand grows and rivals scale up, the car maker has chosen to
take its. . . Full story |
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Company News | Shareholders were advised of the following changes to the Chemspec board of directors ("the board") with effect from 1 January 2013:
Following. . . Full story | | Shareholders were advised that as the pro forma financial effects of the Purchase Agreement have now been disclosed, caution is no. . . Full story | | Shareholders are referred to the terms announcement released by the company on 11 October 2012 ("the Terms Announcement"), in terms of. . . Full story | | Unitholders are referred to the SENS announcement of Friday, 19 October 2012, where it was announced that an unit distribution of. . . Full story |
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| HCI shareholders were informed that it is expected that for the six months ended 30 September 2012, HCI's headline earnings will. . . Full story | | The company announced that Tumi Makgabo has been appointed as an independent non-executive director of TFG with immediate effect.
The. . . Full story | | The following prospectus has been approved by the UK Listing Authority and is available for viewing:
Prospectus dated 7 November. . . Full story | | Shareholders were referred to the cautionary announcement, dated 01 October 2012, and were advised that the company is currently still in. . . Full story |
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Company Results | Revenue increased by 37% to R3.5 billion (R2.6 billion). Operating income was up 21% to R314.7 million (R260.9 million). Net attributable. . . Full story | | Revenue increased to R564.3 million (September 2011: R469 million), gross profit also improved to R353.4 million (September 2011: R286.2 million). Operating. . . Full story | | Revenue increased to R7.4 billion (R6 billion).Operating profit rose to R1.3 billion (R1 billion). Net attributable profit grew to R655 million. . . Full story | | Revenue rose by 13% to R8.2 billion (R7.2 billion). Operating profit was down 29% to R477.1 million (R674.9 million). Net attributable. . . Full story |
World Markets (Spot Prices)
Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | JSE Overall | 17:00 | 37463.20 | 119.00 | 0.32% | JSE Top 40 | 17:00 | 33244.66 | 122.00 | 0.37% | JSE Gold | 17:00 | 2454.46 | -11.00 | -0.47% | JSE Financial | 17:00 | 27643.51 | 28.00 | 0.10% | JSE Industrial | 17:00 | 44767.74 | 385.00 | 0.87% | JSE Indust 25 | 17:00 | 38534.37 | 390.00 | 1.02% | JSE Resource | 17:00 | 49606.54 | -199.00 | -0.40% | DJ Futures | 20:00 | 12765.00 | 1.00 | 0.01% | DJ Ind | 20:00 | 12819.81 | 4.42 | 0.03% | SP 500 | 20:00 | 1380.90 | 1.05 | 0.08% | Nasdaq | 20:00 | 2909.30 | 4.43 | 0.15% | FTSE 100 | 18:35 | 5767.27 | -2.41 | -0.04% | DAX | 19:08 | 7168.76 | 5.26 | 0.07% | CAC40 | 19:08 | 3411.65 | -11.92 | -0.35% | Nikkei | 08:08 | 8676.44 | -81.16 | -0.93% | Shanghai | 09:30 | 2079.27 | 10.21 | 0.49% | Hang-Seng | 10:28 | 21430.30 | 45.92 | 0.21% | All Ords | 07:49 | 4469.90 | -12.60 | -0.28% | NZSE 50 | 06:52 | 3983.99 | 26.07 | 0.66% |
| | Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | Gold $ | 19:58 | 1728.21 | -4.07 | -0.23% | Gold R | 20:00 | 15117.52 | 55.35 | 0.37% | Gold R/kg | 20:00 | 486028 | 233 | 0.05% | Silver $ | 19:58 | 32.3400 | -.2400 | -0.74% | Platinum $ | 19:58 | 1557.75 | 12.45 | 0.81% | Palladium $ | 19:58 | 605.50 | 2.50 | 0.41% | R157 | 09/11 | 5.45 | .01 | 0.00% | R204 | 09/11 | 6.12 | .02 | 0.00% | Brent Crude | 20:00 | 109.01 | 1.06 | 0.98% | Rand / Dollar | 19:58 | 8.7475 | 0.0511 | 0.59% | Rand / Pound | 19:55 | 13.8544 | 0.0430 | 0.31% | Rand / Euro | 19:55 | 11.1202 | 0.0539 | 0.49% | Rand / NZD | 19:57 | 7.1549 | 0.0685 | 0.97% | Rand / AUD | 19:55 | 9.1258 | 0.0773 | 0.85% | Yen / Dollar | 19:58 | 79.4400 | 0.0140 | 0.02% | Euro / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.7864 | 0.0003 | 0.04% | Dollar / Euro | 19:58 | 1.2712 | -0.0003 | -0.03% | Pound / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.6298 | 0.0013 | 0.21% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today
Trading Statistics
Date | Adv. | Decl. | Unch. | Actives | Volume | Value | Trades | Orders |
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12/11/2012 | 190 | 168 | 62 | 420 | 176,513,452 | R9,640,520,803 | 116699 | 1055692 | 09/11/2012 | 169 | 183 | 63 | 415 | 193,454,546 | R11,801,309,238 | 118807 | 1561000 | 08/11/2012 | 184 | 159 | 76 | 419 | 195,779,601 | R12,222,940,645 | 122751 | 306755 | 07/11/2012 | 178 | 153 | 83 | 414 | 214,791,453 | R12,838,609,984 | 128228 | 1300488 | 06/11/2012 | 197 | 141 | 72 | 410 | 214,459,062 | R10,234,583,151 | 109362 | 692117 |
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Index Summary Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Top 40 | 33,244.00 | 122.00 | 0.37% | Industrial | 44,767.00 | 385.00 | 0.87% | Mid Cap | 52,309.00 | 53.00 | 0.10% | Small Cap | 38,546.00 | -51.00 | -0.13% | Resource 20 | 49,606.00 | -199.00 | -0.40% | Industrial 25 | 38,534.00 | 390.00 | 1.02% | Financial 15 | 10,290.00 | -1.00 | -0.02% | Financial & Ind. 30 | 41,699.00 | 341.00 | 0.83% | All Share | 37,463.00 | 119.00 | 0.32% | Oil & Gas | 27,734.00 | -113.00 | -0.41% | Mining | 31,927.00 | -140.00 | -0.44% | Gold Mining | 2,454.00 | -11.00 | -0.47% | Platinum Mining | 48.00 | .00 | -0.33% | GENERAL MINING | 8,318.00 | -19.00 | -0.24% | Oil & Gas Producers | 14,912.00 | -60.00 | -0.40% | Basic Materials | 27,387.00 | -120.00 | -0.44% | Chemicals | 15,691.00 | 12.00 | 0.08% | Forestry & Paper | 16,612.00 | -4.00 | -0.02% | Industrial Metals | 27,072.00 | -261.00 | -0.96% | Industrials | 35,576.00 | -3.00 | -0.01% | General Industrials | 101.00 | .00 | 0.79% | Consumer Goods | 38,730.00 | 630.00 | 1.66% | Automobiles & Parts | 6,936.00 | -17.00 | -0.26% | Household Goods | 194.00 | 4 | 2.22% | Health Care | 52,585.00 | 153.00 | 0.29% | Beverages | 126.00 | .00 | 0.75% |
| | Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Food Producers | 65,354.00 | -195.00 | -0.30% | Personal Goods | 609.00 | 26.00 | 4.50% | Consumer Services | 81,767.00 | 447.00 | 0.55% | General Retailers | 67,892.00 | -98.00 | -0.14% | Travel & Leisure | 4,664.00 | 8.00 | 0.19% | Media | 120.00 | 1.00 | 1.15% | Support Services | 2,394.00 | .00 | 0.02% | Telecommunications | 80,926.00 | 643.00 | 0.80% | Financials | 27,643.00 | 28.00 | 0.10% | Banks | 49,754.00 | -146.00 | -0.29% | Non-life Insurance | 46,578.00 | 159.00 | 0.34% | Life Insurance | 23,472.00 | 56.00 | 0.24% | General Financial | 2,526.00 | 14.00 | 0.56% | Technology | 33,646.00 | -213.00 | -0.63% | SHARIAH TOP40 | 3,288.00 | 12 | 0.38% | FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL | 3,391.00 | 12 | 0.36% | COAL MINING | 22,315.00 | 73 | 0.33% | FTSE JSE Fledgling | 5,656.00 | -8 | -0.15% | FTSE/JSE Alt X | 1,011.00 | -46 | -4.40% | SA LISTED PROPERTY | 472.00 | | 0.35% | CAPPED PROPERTY | 385.00 | | 0.56% | RESOURCE | 27,353.00 | -119 | -0.43% | DIVIDEND PLUS | 204.00 | 0 | 0.44% | FTSE/JSE RAFI 40 | 7,584.00 | 11 | 0.15% | Capped Top 40 | 17,545.00 | 65 | 0.37% | Capped All Share | 18,951.00 | 60 | 0.32% | JSE TABACO | 5,719.00 | 27 | 0.48% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes** Code | Company Name | Status | Updated | SHP | SHOPRITE HOLDINGS LIMITED | SELL | 07/11/2012 | MDC | MEDICLINIC INTERNATIONAL | HOLD | 07/11/2012 | OML | OLD MUTUAL PLC | BUY | 06/11/2012 | PIK | PICK N PAY STORES LIMITED | HOLD | 06/11/2012 | RBX | RAUBEX GROUP LTD | HOLD | 06/11/2012 |
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Results Expected** Expected | Company Name | Fin. Date | 13/11/2012 | PPC | September 2012 (Final) | 13/11/2012 | SPAR | September 2012 (Final) | 13/11/2012 | STEFSTOCK | August 2012 (Interim) | 13/11/2012 | TSO SUN | September 2012 (Interim) | 13/11/2012 | VILLAGE | September 2012 (Q) |
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Recent Dividends** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | FAIRVEST | 09/11/2012 | 23/11/2012 | 03/12/2012 | R 0.0371 | OCEANA | 08/11/2012 | 04/01/2013 | 14/01/2013 | R 2.5600 | TFG | 08/11/2012 | 27/12/2012 | 07/01/2013 | R 2.3600 | TFG PREF | 08/11/2012 | 14/03/2013 | 25/03/2013 | R 0.0650 | TRUSTCO | 08/11/2012 | 23/11/2012 | 14/12/2012 | R 0.0190 |
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Ex Div** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | REMGRO | 20/09/2012 | 09/11/2012 | 19/11/2012 | R 1.8800 | OCTODEC | 22/10/2012 | 09/11/2012 | 19/11/2012 | R 0.6610 | PREMIUM | 22/10/2012 | 09/11/2012 | 19/11/2012 | R 0.6000 | REBOSIS | 25/10/2012 | 09/11/2012 | 19/11/2012 | R 0.4250 | PINNACLE | 06/09/2012 | 09/11/2012 | 19/11/2012 | R 0.3500 |
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Upcoming AGMs** Code | Company Name | Date | Status | EQS | Eqstra Holdings Ltd. | 13/11/2012 | Confirmed | EMI | Emira Property Fund | 13/11/2012 | Confirmed | EQSB | Eqstra Holdings Ltd. | 13/11/2012 | Confirmed | EQSA | Eqstra Holdings Ltd. | 13/11/2012 | Confirmed | GRT | Growthpoint Properties Ltd. | 13/11/2012 | Confirmed |
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Stock Exchange News Service Click here for more SENS news
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