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 The Sharenet Daily 
Monday, 10 October 2011 - 20:00
Top News
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)

VIX: Uncertainty may mean Opportunity

Local and international markets have been incredibly volatile in recent times, with news of the US credit rating downgrade and the threatening European sovereign debt crisis giving investors much cause for concern. Many investors are now tempted to sell off risky assets, but this may be to their detriment as they have already borne some losses and will probably be selling lower than they should. Many analysts regard these periods of increased volatility as ideal opportunities to buy, where informed and less risk-averse investors can profit at the expense of those who are overcome by emotion and uncertainty.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX*) is a measure widely used to determine expected future short term volatility in the market, and is also referred to as the “investor fear gauge”.

VIX values below 20 correspond to more complacent times in the markets, while values above 30 indicate large amounts of volatility as a result of market fear and uncertainty. The VIX has closed above 40 only 166 times since its inception in Jan 1990, indicating that these levels are the result of extreme levels of emotion and insecurity in markets.

Source: Yahoo Finance

The VIX started climbing towards the end of July this year as uncertainty in global markets mounted, and breached the 40 level in the first week of August. Between 4 and 8 August the index recorded its biggest three-day increase ever, and closed on a 29-month high of 48. However, this is still way below the all time high of 80.86 seen during the height of the global financial crisis in 2008. At the moment the index is around the 40 mark, but speculation suggests that the previous high in August might be breached depending on the result of the European sovereign debt crisis.

Analysts usually regard VIX levels above 40 as a good entry point into markets. Historic data indicates that on average US equities have given returns of 3.2% over the 3 months following a VIX close above 40. However, this approach cannot be followed blindly as events preceding the rise in the VIX must also be considered before any investment decision is made. The average figure of 3.2% disguises the massive losses that have resulted in some cases. In 2008, the S&P 500 fell by 34% over 5 months after the VIX rose above 40 on the 2nd of October. Conversely, the S&P rose by 22% over 3 months when the VIX reached 44.28 in August 1998. These contradictory results are a result of the preceding market movements and other macroeconomic factors, and make it impossible to discern a definite buy signal based on the VIX alone.

It is clear that markets often behave irrationally, and that the VIX cannot be used in isolation to predict future market movements. However it does tell us is that risk-taking investors may be able to benefit from the irrational and fearful behaviour of others in these uncertain times.

Kind regards,

Cor van Deventer
021 9144 966

* The VIX is constructed by analysing the prices of a wide range of both put and call options on the S&P 500 index, the leading indicator of U.S. equities. The option prices are then used to calculate the implied volatility of the index underlying the options, resulting in a measure of the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility.

Mon, 10 Oct 2011
Top News
South Africa's rand gained as much as 2.3 percent against the dollar on Monday, touching a near two-week high as investors ventured back into emerging markets on a raft of positive news about euro zone debt.  Full story

Commodities trader and miner Glencore is pursuing 50:50 joint ventures with South African partner Cyril Ramaphosa across the mining sector with an emphasis on bolt-on deals, industry sources and analysts briefed by the commodities group said.  Full story
Libyan transitional government forces said they had cornered Muammar Gaddafi loyalists in the centre of the deposed leader's hometown on Monday, but many desperate civilians were still trying to flee the fierce street fighting.  Full story
A strong showing by hardline leftist Arnaud Montebourg in France's Socialist Party primary vote makes the selection of a moderate candidate less of a certainty and could drag the party's 2012 presidential campaign further to the left.  Full story
Thai rescue workers scrambled on Monday to prevent a humanitarian disaster as the worst flooding in half a century swamped large sections of the country, shut factories and stranded thousands of people.  Full story
European shares rose for a fourth day on Monday, on optimism a plan devised by France and Germany would help resolve the euro. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks rallied on Monday as investor sentiment got a lift from a pledge by German and French leaders to tackle the euro-zone. . .  Full story
Bank and commodity stocks hoisted Britain's top shares to a five-week closing high on Monday, on mounting optimism over the prospects for a. . .  Full story
Gold rose 2 percent on Monday, moving in tandem with equities and commodities in a risk rally, as the dollar tumbled after a. . .  Full story

World stocks rallied for a fourth straight session on Monday and the euro jumped on a pledge by the German and French leaders. . .  Full story
European shares rose for a fourth day on Monday, on optimism that a plan devised by France and Germany would help resolve the. . .  Full story
European shares extended gains on Monday, on optimism a plan being devised by France and Germany would help resolve the euro zone debt. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks rose sharply in early trading on Monday after a renewed pledge by France and Germany to come up with a plan. . .  Full story
SA Business
South African stocks booked their highest close in nearly three weeks on Monday, rising 2.4 percent as a pledge by European. . .  Full story
Sierra Leone secured its first fibre optic connection to the outside world on Monday with the arrival of the Africa Coast. . .  Full story
The Tanzanian shilling hit another record low against the dollar on Monday and traders expected it to remain under pressure this. . .  Full story
Wal-Mart and Massmart should increase their planned fund to support South African suppliers to at least 500 million rand from 100. . .  Full story

Impala Platinum , the world's second-largest producer of the precious metal, has reached a two-year wage deal with South Africa's National Union of Mineworkers. . .  Full story
Impala Platinum, the world's second-largest producer of the precious metal, said on Monday it has reached a two-year wage deal with. . .  Full story
Shares of South Africa's FirstRand tumbled more than 5 percent as the stock trades ex-dividend, or without the right to its. . .  Full story
South Africa's rand started the week on a firmer note on Monday, maintaining gains below the psychologically important 8.00 level in. . .  Full story

South Africa's rand gained over 1.4 percent against the dollar on Monday as investors bought risky assets, encouraged by a German and French pledge over the weekend to shore up banks.. . .  Full story
AngloGold Ashanti chief executive officer Mark Cutifani has said talk of mine nationalisation in South Africa is hurting investment in the sector, local Business Day newspaper reported on Monday.. . .  Full story
Company News
Shareholders were advised that the annual report for the year ended 30 June 2011 has been posted to shareholders on Monday,. . .  Full story
Shareholders were advised that the company disposed of its interest in StratCol Ltd ("StratCol"), an associated company in which StratCorp held. . .  Full story
Shareholders were advised that, at the annual general meeting of shareholders of the company held on 10 October 2011 at the. . .  Full story
Astrapak announced the appointment of Ms Gugu Pride Duda as an independent non-executive director to the board with effect from 10. . .  Full story

Shareholders were advised that Ansys is currently finalising its interim results for the period ended 31 August 2011. Ansys' earnings per share and headline earnings per share for the period are expected to be between 3.72 and 4.47 cents per share. . .  Full story
On 29 March 2011, Cenrand identified three critical challenges facing the company, which included the rising water table in the Central Basin, the appearance of double voids (termed composite double voids) and the challenges of dilution through its proposed long hole. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0030884.70639.802.12%
JSE Top 4017:0027654.48653.022.42%
JSE Gold17:002715.997.870.29%
JSE Financial17:0021214.68197.240.94%
JSE Industrial17:0032848.32768.042.39%
JSE Indust 2517:0027773.22740.482.74%
JSE Resource17:0050296.781201.972.45%
DJ Futures19:5611325.00259.002.34%
DJ Ind19:4511368.58265.462.39%
SP 50020:001188.3132.852.84%
FTSE 10017:355399.0095.601.80%
All Ords07:384262.3037.300.88%
NZSE 5006:463372.85-10.79-0.32%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold/R kg20:00422254-622-0.15%
Brent Crude19:56108.512.912.76%
Rand / Dollar19:597.8505-0.1115-1.40%
Rand / Pound19:5512.2747-0.0928-0.75%
Rand / Euro19:5510.72120.05110.48%
Rand / NZD19:576.16170.04410.72%
Rand / AUD19:557.84700.06470.83%
Yen / Dollar19:5876.6500-0.1590-0.21%
Euro / Dollar19:550.7319-0.0148-1.98%
Dollar / Euro19:561.36580.02692.01%
Pound / Dollar19:550.6377-0.0049-0.76%

Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today
Trading Statistics

Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 BAUBA  2252512.50.%2240
2 VERIMARK  1301210.17.%93150
3 ROLFES  235209.30.%45000
4 FREEWORLD  999687.30.%296
5 ANOORAQ  476265.78.%35209
6 ELBGROUP  1995955.00.%97079
7 CLIENTELE  1100504.76.%1939
8 CIL  930404.49.%30447
9 KEATON   280124.48.%24896
10 MONDIPLCP  62302644.43.%1136601
11 MONDILTDP  62452554.26.%257797
12 IMPLATS  172017014.25.%1033228
13 ANGLO  2987511824.12.%3087817
14 AECI  76982984.03.%105741
15 ARCMITTAL  63122444.02.%707516
16 ARM   179506853.97.%201131
17 HOSP-A  1300493.92.%10
18 SABMILLER  2798010433.87.%2362302
19 KUMBAIO  4555516873.85.%656024
20 PBT  14053.70.%92499

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 DELRAND  150-22-12.79.%9724
2 RANGOLD  225-25-10.00.%2294
3 WESIZWE  160-12-6.98.%304339
4 CMH  1000-74-6.89.%370
5 NEPI  3310-229-6.47.%260733
6 TASTE  121-7-5.47.%32492
7 URONE  1675-95-5.37.%8475
8 ZEDER  230-13-5.35.%1049148
9 FIRSTRAND  1985-80-3.87.%15141374
10 WINHOLD  140-5-3.45.%508920
11 S-OCEAN  140-5-3.45.%40000
12 BLACKSTAR  1034-36-3.36.%1080
13 OPTIMUM  3601-124-3.33.%68649
14 GROUP-5  2466-84-3.29.%269722
15 ARGENT  630-20-3.08.%115000
16 AVENG  3395-105-3.00.%713545
17 AFGRI  500-15-2.91.%3076924
18 EQSTRA  705-20-2.76.%70621
19 RMBH  2554-66-2.52.%1719617
20 KGMEDIA  1635-40-2.39.%103784

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 CLIENTELE  11001100504.76.%1939
2 AFRIMAT  440440153.53.%13000
3 SHOPRIT  11950119992442.08.%1113092
4 TIGBRANDS  21895219403791.76.%225486
5 BATS  34703351612270.66.%233189
6 LIFEHC  19611995-1-0.05.%1498476
7 TASTE  121130-7-5.47.%32492

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 CMH  10001000-74-6.89.%370
2 AFGRI  500454-15-2.91.%3076924
3 JUBILEE  167150-2-1.18.%161866
4 ALTECH  54005365-50-0.92.%81090
5 PETMIN  2552450.743460
6 OANDO  1301210.83871
7 SOVFOOD  40038551.27.%226471

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Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4027,654.48653.022.42%
Mid Cap41,066.88264.590.65%
Small Cap31,097.75-.11-0.00%
Resource 2050,296.781201.972.45%
Industrial 2527,773.22740.482.74%
Financial 157,931.5688.811.13%
Financial & Ind. 3030,673.96699.662.33%
All Share30,884.70639.802.12%
Oil & Gas 25,373.00-68.08-0.27%
Mining 33,024.76915.562.85%
Gold Mining2,715.997.870.29%
Platinum Mining63.622.113.43%
GENERAL MINING8,128.20271.933.46%
Oil & Gas Producers 13,642.60-36.60-0.27%
Basic Materials 27,890.95783.152.89%
Chemicals 12,798.53265.932.12%
Forestry & Paper 12,369.95405.923.39%
Industrial Metals 27,306.51933.083.54%
Industrials 26,646.16281.991.07%
General Industrials 75,045.651366.721.85%
Consumer Goods 28,418.45910.463.31%
Automobiles & Parts 3,623.134.530.13%
Household Goods148.0821.35%
Health Care 34,456.53339.220.99%
Beverages 95.613.563.87%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 49,638.41493.911.01%
Personal Goods 400.5014.083.64%
Consumer Services 53,817.78603.231.13%
General Retailers 43,234.29928.682.20%
Travel & Leisure 3,409.2613.630.40%
Media 79.26-.10-0.13%
Support Services 2,215.217.520.34%
Telecommunications 66,855.682111.013.26%
Financials 21,214.68197.240.94%
Banks 40,078.35208.130.52%
Non-life Insurance 33,948.73121.250.36%
Life Insurance 15,530.61333.192.19%
General Financial 2,065.7825.031.23%
Technology 22,784.5969.020.30%
SHARIAH TOP40 2,967.35782.71%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,028.70732.49%
COAL MINING23,830.596042.60%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 4,454.7690.21%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,091.77-13-1.21%
RESOURCE 27,804.476572.42%
DIVIDEND PLUS164.9421.20%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 406,404.511402.24%
Capped Top 4014,541.323362.36%
Capped All Share15,605.113212.10%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
11 Oct 2011METMARAugust 2011 (Interim)
11 Oct 2011VERIMARKAugust 2011 (Interim)
12 Oct 2011ADCORPAugust 2011 (Interim)
12 Oct 2011DATATECAugust 2011 (Interim)
13 Oct 2011DIPULA AAugust 2011 (Final)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
NAIL -N-11-10-0611-10-2111-10-31R 0.1267
NAIL11-10-0611-10-2111-10-31R 0.1267
INSIMBI11-10-0411-10-2111-10-31R 0.0200
DCENTRIX11-10-0411-10-2111-10-31R 0.1340
NTC PREF11-10-0311-10-2111-10-31R 3.3842
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
BEE-SASOL11-09-1211-10-0711-10-17R 9.9000
SASOL11-09-1211-10-0711-10-17R 9.9000
AVENG11-09-0511-10-0711-10-17R 1.4500
CASHBIL11-09-2011-10-0711-10-17R 1.3900
ASPEN11-09-1311-10-0711-10-17R 1.0500

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
BFSBlue Financial Services Ltd10/10/2011Confirmed
WSLWescoal Holdings Ltd11/10/2011Confirmed
ARHARB Holdings Ltd11/10/2011Confirmed
BLUBlue Label Telecoms Ltd12/10/2011Unconfirmed
DAWDistribution and Warehousing Network Ltd13/10/2011Unconfirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
10/10/201117:32 Adaptit Holdings Limited - Dealings in securities by director
10/10/201117:22 Grand Parade Investments Limited - Change statement and notice of annual
10/10/201117:08 Woolworths Holdings Limited - No change statement and notice of annual
10/10/201117:00 EOH Holdings Limited - Dealings in securities by a director
10/10/201116:49 Village Main Reef Limited - Village reaches settlement with Aberdeen
10/10/201116:25OML - Old Mutual plc - Form 8.3
10/10/201116:17 Foneworx Holdings Limited - Dealings in securities by director
10/10/201116:00 Vividend Income Fund Limited - Voluntary trading update
10/10/201115:32 Stratcorp Limited - Disposal by Stratcorp of its interest in Stratcol
10/10/201115:25BIOCT - Octane ABS1 (Pty) Ltd - Full and final capital redemption
10/10/201115:11INL/INP - Investec Limited/Investec plc - Form 8 (DD)
10/10/201115:05INL/INP - Investec - Form 8 (DD)
10/10/201115:00 African Eagle Resources plc - Grant of share options
10/10/201114:58 Discovery Holdings Limited - Dealing in securities by director
10/10/201114:15 British American Tobacco p.l.c. - Notification of transactions of
10/10/201114:00CLR/CLRP - Clover Industries Limited - Dealing in securities by an
10/10/201113:50FRC78 - FirstRand Bank Limited - Listing of new financial instrument
10/10/201113:50BIIND - Indwa Investments Limited - Listing of Tap Issues
10/10/201113:27 Northam Platinum Limited - Notice of Annual General Meeting and no
10/10/201113:25 Interwaste Holdings Limited - Director`s dealings in securities
10/10/201113:00 Trans Hex Group Limited - Termination of the secondary listing of
10/10/201112:08 Blue Financial Services Limited - Results of annual general meeting
10/10/201112:00 SABMiller plc - Change in particulars of non-executive directors
10/10/201111:59BIFR1 - FirstRand Bank Limited - Interest rate reset announcement
10/10/201111:37IND141 - iNdwa Investments Limited - Full capital redemption
10/10/201111:32 Raubex Group Limited - Trading statement in respect of the six
10/10/201111:06 Astrapak Limited - Change to the board of directors
10/10/201110:55 Consolidated Infrastructure Group Limited - Change to the company
10/10/201110:36 City Lodge Hotels Limited - No change statement and notice of
10/10/201110:28 Ansys Limited - Trading update
10/10/201109:50INL/INP - Investec - Rule 2.10
10/10/201109:33SCIB - The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited - Adjustments to the terms and
10/10/201108:00IPS - IPSA GROUP PLC - Holding(s) in Company
10/10/201108:00 Central Rand Gold Limited - Operational update
10/10/201107:10 British American Tobacco p.l.c. - Transaction in own shares
10/10/201107:05 Sappi Limited - Correction - Dealing in securities by directors of listed
10/10/201107:05GRD163 - Grayston Conduit 1 (Proprietary) Limited - New Financial Instrument

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