Daily Equity Report Sharenet Logo

Welcome to the Sharenet Daily Equity Report
 Issue: 04 February 2011 20:00

We have ignition

We maintain many quantitative timing models for our subscribers,to allow them to trade swings in the market. We also have "Buy on the dip" models we maintain for our longer-term investor subscribers and smaller funds, to allow them to manage the risk of JSE entry. These are far less frenetic than the trading systems and sometimes give bull-market signals only once every 150 days. A few days back, one of the models awoke from a 6 month slumber to give an entry signal as shown in the signal chart below:

This is a system we invented specifically for regular funds deployment as it has various risk ratios from 90% confidence signals to 70% confidence signals and generates about 1 signal per month on average. The signals it generates depends on the "swings" of the yellow index from low thresholds through to higher thresholds as shown in the above chart.We call this the "slingshot effect". The 90% confidence signals are shown as orange vertical bars and as you can see they are much less frequent than the lower confidence signals.

The yellow index is our own JSE breadth metric that measures on a daily basis, the percentage of JSE shares and ETF's making new short-term highs or breakouts. Corrections are characterized by this index slumping to low-watermark levels (with the lower dotted line demarcating extreme selling pressure). But if within 10 days the index "slingshots" up to certain higher values (the upper dotted line represents rush-buying), you have superb trough-reversal markers to help you manage the risk of funds deployment. There have only been sixteen (16) "90% confidence" signals in the last 7 years, as depicted below:

It is not perfect (it got caught in the Jul 2008 bull-trap, as did most quant systems) but it is damn close. It may not detect all "great-troughs" (that is why we run multiple systems to catch them all) but the actuarial table below for various holding periods shows stunning performance for a 20-day holding period. Acting on these signals by just investing in an instrument that tracks the TOP40 (such as SATRIX40 or ALSI Futures)and holding for 20 days delivers 93% success (7% of trades were losses) and an eye-watering gain-to-loss ratio in excess of 100-to-1 (100 points gained for every point lost).The expected gain for such an operation would be 5.1%

As always, systems are just that - systems - and they can be imperfect and whilst a 7 year track record of 16 signals may yield a historical 93% success rate, that is no guarantee signal number 17 wont be a dud! For this reason normal position sizing and risk management rules would apply to these trades/entries regardless of the historical performance.

If you are interested in more systems like the above for timing the markets, from investment systems to more rapid trading ones that also give exit signals on the above entries, then book and come and see us at the Sharenet National Seminars. You can also read more about us and our systems at the Sharenet PowerStocks Landing page

Be safe out there...
Dwaine van Vuuren
Founder & CTO, PowerStocks Equities Research

Fri, 04 Feb 2011

South Africa's rand weakened to a near six-month low against the dollar on Friday, falling through key support and dragging local bonds down with it before recouping some losses as demand for longer dated paper picked up.  Full story
South African coal producers on Friday dismissed utility Eskom's criticism of coal quality and the power company's claims that suppliers were favouring exports over deliveries to its electricity generating plants.  Full story
South Africa's logistics group Transnet said on Friday it has issued a $750 million, five-year bond to help finance its capital expansion programme.  Full story
China has offered Zimbabwe $3 billion for vast platinum reserves, a local private newspaper reported on Friday but said the deal was likely to be rejected by the government over its terms.  Full story

Proposed changes to revenue sharing within the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) are unacceptable because they place an unfair burden on. . .  Full story
Standard Bank was silent on Friday on whether it would sell its 36 percent stake in Russia's Troika Dialog, as speculation. . .  Full story
Africa's top three gold producers are expected to report strong earnings for the December quarter, boosted by higher output and a. . .  Full story
South African petrochemicals group Sasol expects first-half earnings to increase by as much as 27 percent, lifted by cost cuts and. . .  Full story

Trading Statistics


Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 TRADEH  800506.67.%20001
2 ARB  350206.06.%15390
3 SASOL  3810020055.55.%3152827
4 MIXTEL  13664.62.%36000
5 GBGOLD  1960854.53.%11000
6 YORK  365143.99.%100150
7 SENTULA  280103.70.%3832604
8 HARMONY  79802803.64.%1159872
9 EASTPLATS  1328433.35.%53117
10 GOLDONE  22773.18.%461785
11 TRNSHEX  23273.11.%303701
12 ESORFRANK  20063.09.%1101209
13 LONAFRIC  18552.78.%800
14 AQUARIUS  45701212.72.%102166
15 KEATON   380102.70.%18200
16 GFIELDS  117992992.60.%2312183
17 BARWORLD  72691842.60.%709174
18 BWI  12032.56.%271071
19 DAWN  800202.56.%22396
20 REDEFINTL  615152.50.%24000

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 CARGO  1100-130-10.57.%200
2 KELLY  410-40-8.89.%1200
3 AMA  195-15-7.14.%61164
4 ERBACON  125-5-3.85.%15000
5 ALTRON  2616-104-3.82.%45670
6 IQUAD  295-10-3.28.%4000
7 BCX  615-20-3.15.%106757
8 AFRO-C  160-5-3.03.%37729
9 ALTRON-P  2600-80-2.99.%399721
10 HCI  7802-197-2.46.%573260
11 PLATMIN  630-15-2.33.%24110
12 SABMILLER  23900-549-2.25.%1252595
13 BAUBA  220-5-2.22.%12205
14 FIRSTRAND  1963-39-1.95.%8378806
15 LONFIN  204-4-1.92.%3585
16 HOSP-B  1050-20-1.87.%446206
17 ANOORAQ  1070-20-1.83.%2090
18 MERAFE  162-3-1.82.%3283967
19 ARCMITTAL  8740-160-1.80.%458865
20 CML  1738-31-1.75.%385857

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 ARB  350351206.06.%15390
2 SASOL  381003822920055.55.%3152827
3 BARWORLD  726975141842.60.%709174
4 BELL  14071490271.96.%60711
5 ANGLO  38725389405741.50.%4352056
6 OPTIMUM  34403650501.47.%114948
7 EHSV  925095281181.29.%49273
8 BATS  2794228199910.33.%686659
9 WINHOLD  1651680.71000
10 BILLITON  2926629660-112-0.38.%2510712
11 MONDIPLCP  60056150-50-0.83.%477827
12 MONDILTDP  60006148-67-1.10.%459089

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 LONFIN  204204-4-1.92.%3585
2 CITYLDG  70447005-55-0.77.%37942

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Spot Prices
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall16:5932867.2772.430.22%
JSE Top 4017:0029718.96109.490.37%
JSE Gold17:002663.0568.222.63%
JSE Financial16:5921570.35-110.24-0.51%
JSE Industrial17:0031917.24-160.71-0.50%
JSE Indust 2516:5926621.47-166.70-0.62%
JSE Resource17:0060558.07841.331.41%
DJ Futures19:5612006.00-3.00-0.02%
DJ Ind19:4512063.090.830.01%
SP 50019:361305.80-1.30-0.10%
FTSE 10018:355997.3814.040.23%
All Ords07:394958.8039.500.80%
NZSE 5006:323367.8217.930.54%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold/R kg20:0031359436521.18%
Brent Crude19:5699.56-2.23-2.19%
Rand / Dollar19:587.2400-0.0153-0.21%
Rand / Pound19:5511.6436-0.0371-0.32%
Rand / Euro19:559.8555-0.0368-0.37%
Rand / NZD19:575.5691-0.0412-0.73%
Rand / AUD19:557.3413-0.0315-0.43%
Yen / Dollar19:5482.38000.78000.96%
Euro / Dollar19:550.73540.00170.23%
Dollar / Euro19:581.3586-0.0035-0.26%
Pound / Dollar19:550.62080.00130.21%

Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4029,718.96109.490.37%
Mid Cap41,473.1915.800.04%
Small Cap32,439.3995.790.30%
Resource 2060,558.07841.331.41%
Industrial 2526,621.47-166.70-0.62%
Financial 158,213.69-31.10-0.38%
Financial & Ind. 3030,070.75-182.53-0.60%
All Share32,867.2772.430.22%
Oil & Gas 28,876.181516.485.54%
Mining 39,877.48330.090.83%
Gold Mining2,663.0568.222.63%
Platinum Mining80.88-.05-0.06%
Oil & Gas Producers 15,526.19815.385.54%
Basic Materials 33,435.95249.890.75%
Chemicals 13,516.1435.970.27%
Forestry & Paper 14,101.40-64.27-0.45%
Industrial Metals 30,171.5026.130.09%
Industrials 28,738.95-11.34-0.04%
General Industrials 77,900.55190.360.24%
Consumer Goods 26,130.06-295.71-1.12%
Automobiles & Parts 2,819.25-9.06-0.32%
Household Goods160.6642.31%
Health Care 31,685.4717.650.06%
Beverages 81,670.84-1876.04-2.25%
Food Producers 48,099.33249.020.52%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Personal Goods 391.52-4.49-1.13%
Consumer Services 52,662.00139.900.27%
General Retailers 38,140.75-168.49-0.44%
Travel & Leisure 4,043.90.470.01%
Media 88,533.59469.510.53%
Support Services 2,563.2437.551.49%
Telecommunications 63,822.77-466.24-0.73%
Financials 21,570.35-110.24-0.51%
Banks 40,577.68-376.73-0.92%
Non-life Insurance 30,556.28354.031.17%
Life Insurance 16,090.37157.730.99%
General Financial 2,364.22-20.14-0.84%
Technology 20,997.22104.440.50%
SHARIAH TOP40 3,405.57361.05%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,452.68341.00%
COAL MINING21,485.211730.81%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 4,706.13-1-0.02%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,100.5660.50%
RESOURCE 33,316.854631.41%
DIVIDEND PLUS169.34-0-0.25%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 406,894.52240.36%
Capped Top 4015,354.26560.37%
Capped All Share16,479.68390.24%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
07 Feb 2011ANGLOPLATDecember 2010 (Final)
07 Feb 2011ANGLOPLATCCPDecember 2010 (Final)
07 Feb 2011HARMONYDecember 2010 (Interim)
07 Feb 2011HARMONY-PDecember 2010 (Interim)
08 Feb 2011ABENovember 2011 (Interim)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
DIALOGUE11-01-1311-02-1811-02-28R 0.1238
SBRJSEP1110-12-1511-03-0411-03-15R 1.4100
WINHOLD10-11-2911-02-1111-02-21R 0.1000
TFG PREF10-11-1611-03-1711-03-28R 0.0650
PARACON10-11-1511-03-0411-03-14R 0.1000
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
SBR00310-11-0511-01-2811-02-07R 1.6000
FOORDCMPS11-01-2011-02-0411-02-14R 0.5385
UCS10-11-2311-02-0411-02-14R 0.0500

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
OCTOctodec Investments Ltd04/02/2011Confirmed
AWTAwethu Breweries Ltd08/02/2011Confirmed
MIPMerchant - Industrial Properties Ltd08/02/2011Confirmed
RLPReunert Ltd08/02/2011Confirmed
RLZPReunert Ltd08/02/2011Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
04/02/201117:49Qpg - Quantum Property Group Limited - Change To The Board Of Directors
04/02/201117:29 John Daniel Holdings Limited - Trading Statement
04/02/201117:24 John Daniel Holdings - Clarification on the Company Secretary update
04/02/201117:23 IFCA Technologies Limited - Update on board restructure
04/02/201117:21 Anglo American plc - Anglo American completes sale of Black Mountain
04/02/201116:40 Nampak Limited - Appointment of Non-Executive Director
04/02/201116:37 Nampak Limited - Disposal of the Nampak cartons and healthcare businesses
04/02/201115:57 AH-Vest Limited - Renewal of cautionary announcement in respect of the
04/02/201115:46 Digicore Holdings Limited - Appointment to the board of directors
04/02/201115:32 SA French Limited - Change in designated adviser
04/02/201115:27 Efficient Financial Holdings Limited - Change of Name - Update
04/02/201115:17 Royal Bafokeng Platinum Limited - Trading Statement for the financial year
04/02/201115:05 Nedbank Group Limited - Specific issue of shares for cash
04/02/201114:56 Pinnacle Point Group Limited - Renewal of cautionary announcement -
04/02/201114:30 Reunert Limited - Reunert receives payment for the sale of its 40% share
04/02/201113:50 Austro Group Limited - Change to the board
04/02/201113:22 Country Bird Holdings Limited - Dealings in securities
04/02/201112:57 John Daniel Holdings Limited - Appointment of non-executive independent
04/02/201112:53 Octodec Investments Limited - Results of Annual General Meeting
04/02/201112:34CCO - Capital & Counties Properties PLC - Resignation of non-executive director
04/02/201111:44 Palabora Mining Company Limited - Change to the board of directors
04/02/201111:10 Adcorp Holdings Limited - Directors Dealing In Securities
04/02/201110:41 Coal of Africa Limited - Appendix 3B new issue announcement, application
04/02/201109:29 Optimum Coal Holdings Limited - Dealing in securities by director of a
04/02/201109:26 Standard Bank Group Limited - Resignation of director
04/02/201109:00 old mutual plc - Old Mutual appoints Eva Castillo as a non-executive
04/02/201109:00 White Water Resources Limited - Renewal of cautionary announcement
04/02/201108:53 Firestone Energy Limited - Appendix 3B - New issue announcement,
04/02/201108:53 PSV Holdings Limited - Cautionary announcement
04/02/201108:30 Eqstra Holdings Limited - Trading statement
04/02/201108:30 Sasol Limited - Trading update for the six months ended 31 December 2010
04/02/201108:30 Gold One International Limited - Gold One hosts fund managers and analysts
04/02/201108:10 First Uranium Corporation - First uranium corporation announces filing of
04/02/201108:01 Firestone Energy Limited - Approval of Acquisition of Properties and
04/02/201108:00GLD - NewGold Issuer Limited - Partial De-Listing of Newgold Debentures
04/02/201108:00 Transpaco Limited - Conversion of preference shares and listing of
04/02/201108:00DBXWD - db x-trackers MSCI World Index EFT - Listing of Additional 6 000 000 db
04/02/201107:09BILIHH - Investec Bank Limited - The issue of hot enhanced dividend securities
04/02/201107:08INVS - Investec Bank Limited -Issue of Stock Warrants
04/02/201107:07INVS - Investec Bank Limited - Issue of stock warrants
04/02/201107:06AMSIRT - Investec Bank Limited - The issue of barrier put warrants
04/02/201107:06 BHP Billiton PLC - Transaction in shares
04/02/201107:05CCO - Capital & Counties Properties PLC - Notification of major interests in
04/02/201107:05 Finbond Group Limited - Directors` share dealings
04/02/201107:05 Net 1 UEPS Technologies, Inc. Announces 2011 Second Quarter Results
04/02/201107:05INVS - Investec Bank Limited -Issue of Enhanced Dividend Securities (EDS)

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