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 The Sharenet Daily 
Tuesday, 15 April 2014 - 20:00
Top News
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)

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Seed Weekly - Considering all Investment Risks

While virtually all investors acknowledge that investing involves taking on risk, most investors do not know or take the time to clarify these risks and also to understand the interplay. For example, an investor may be overly concerned about taking on too much market risk and when reducing this risk too much, inadvertently takes on too much longer term inflation risk with a more conservatively constructed portfolio.

It ultimately all comes down to how you define risk and on which aspect an investor places the highest value. A good definition of risk is: “The chance that an investment's actual return will be different than expected because risk includes the possibility of losing some or all of the original investment.”

A typical investment risk pyramid may look something like this, but this is too simplistic a view of the actual risks that an investor faces.

Firstly, for most investors is the mortality or actuarial risk. This is the risk that having saved up a quantum of savings over your productive life, into your retirement years you run out of savings as you live longer than expected, drawing down too quickly on your accumulated savings.

Then there is inflationary risk. Where an investor aims to achieve a rate of return of at least the inflation rate over time from his investment portfolio, there is a risk that his investments will not achieve this return because of inferior performance or where inflation becomes rampant and at worst hyperinflation.

Ironically in times of very high inflation and hyperinflation it is the relatively "safe" investments such as fixed income investments that are the highest risk investments, while the typically understood “risker” investments such as shares, are the lowest risk, in that they have a higher probability of preserving purchasing power.

Once an investor has considered these two main risks, he needs to consider the following, which individually and collectively impact on the mortality and inflationary risk:

Market risk is the risk that the value of your investments fluctuates and at worst, in a major market decline, results in permanent loss of the original capital invested. This is the one risk that many investors fear more than any others, often without having properly considered mortality and inflationary risk.
• The risk of default is one where an investor expects a certain guaranteed return typically from a fixed interest investment such as a bond issued by a government or a corporate and before maturity of the fixed investment, the issuer defaults, with the investor not being fully paid out and in the worst case scenario receiving nothing back.
Liquidity risk is the risk that when the investor wants to convert the investment into readily available cash he is unable to do so for various reasons. Typically speaking less liquid investments, for example private equity, should generate higher returns that a money market investment. Part of the reason for generating this higher return is the higher liquidity risk.
Interest rate risk is risk generally associated with an investment into fixed interest investments. While these investments are typically understood to be in the lower risk category, where an investor has, for example, invested into a 10 year bond yielding 8.5% pa, the risk to the investor is where interest rates move up and now similar bonds yield 10.5%. In such a case the investor will suffer capital loss.
• Another risk each investor faces is political risk. This is because governments have far reaching ability to implement legislation that can severely impact companies, taxes, and property ownership rights for example. While certain governments around the world are seen to be “investor friendly” there are many that have a far more inconsistent approach to legislation, increasing this risk.
Currency risk arises due to a global economy where one currency floats against another. Being exposed to just one currency is itself a risk, but where an investor converts a portion of his investment into another currency, he runs a currency risk should that currency in which he invested decline on a relative basis. South Africans have typically benefitted from currency risk, but there have been long periods of time where the Rand has appreciated and then this risk is more fully appreciated.

When looking at risk in this context, it is less important and indeed less meaningful to try and ascribe a single number to risk, such as standard deviation or price volatility. It is far more meaningful to consider each risk and its potential impact on the investors financial planning and the total portfolio.

Kind regards

Ian de Lange

021 914 4966

Tue, 15 Apr 2014
Top News
South Africa's Association of Mineworkers Construction Union (AMCU) on Tuesday asked the government and the public for funds to help striking members in the platinum sector, who have gone nearly three months without pay.  Full story

Gold prices tumbled about 2 percent on Tuesday, hit by technical selling below its key 200-day moving average and as investors cashed in after its sharp rally on hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates any time soon.  Full story
Ukrainian armed forces on Tuesday launched a "special operation" against militiamen in the country's Russian speaking east, authorities said, recapturing a military airfield from pro-Moscow separatists.  Full story
Ukrainian armed forces on Tuesday launched a "special operation" against militiamen in the country's Russian speaking east, authorities said, recapturing a military airfield from pro-Moscow separatists.  Full story
Jordan's ambassador to Libya was kidnapped on Tuesday by gunmen who demanded an Islamist militant be released from a Jordanian jail in exchange for the diplomat's freedom.  Full story
U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as early gains evaporated when momentum shares once again lost ground, overshadowing a jump in Coca-Cola and Johnson. . .  Full story
European stocks sank on Tuesday, resuming last week's sell-off as worries over escalating tension in Ukraine and weak updates by bellwethers including Nestle spooked. . .  Full story
Global equity markets declined and government debt rose on Tuesday as tensions spiked in Ukraine as Russia declared the country on the brink. . .  Full story
Britain's top shares sank to their lowest close in three weeks on Tuesday, hit by mining companies on concern about demand, while the. . .  Full story

The dollar erased gains against the euro on Tuesday as traders discounted recent comments from European Central Bank policymakers and an uptick in U.S.. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks opened slightly higher on Tuesday after earnings from Coca Cola and Johnson & Johnson overshadowed a mixed bag of economic data.. . .  Full story
Crisis in Ukraine, weak trading updates from European companies and worries over China's economy turned investors sour on riskier assets on Tuesday, driving shares. . .  Full story
Britain's top share index edged down in cautious trading on Tuesday, led down by miners on concerns about rising supply and slowing demand. . .  Full story
SA Business
The South African rand weakened against the dollar for the fourth straight trading session on Tuesday as the market fretted about. . .  Full story
South African grocer Pick n Pay reported a 25 percent jump in annual profit, its first increase in three years, as. . .  Full story
Nigerian annual consumer price inflation edged up in March to 7.8 percent from 7.7 percent in February as food prices rose,. . .  Full story
Gold rose to a three-week high on Monday as renewed concerns over the escalation of hostilities in Ukraine prompted investors to add positions. . .  Full story

South African stocks were led lower by top tier mining stocks on Tuesday as global gold prices slumped by more than two percent on U.S. dollar strength.. . .  Full story
South Africa's Sibanye Gold aims to make a "material" acquisition in platinum mining by the end of this year as it seeks to diversify its business, its chief executive said in a newspaper interview on Tuesday.. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0047789.76-423.50-0.88%
JSE Top 4017:0042905.65-359.39-0.83%
JSE Gold17:001501.16-49.98-3.22%
JSE Financial17:0035275.51-216.93-0.61%
JSE Industrial17:0061589.02-578.94-0.93%
JSE Indust 2517:0054300.02-491.09-0.90%
JSE Resource17:0055963.01-524.58-0.93%
DJ Futures19:5216070.00-26.00-0.16%
DJ Ind19:5816139.68-33.56-0.21%
SP 50019:581826.86-3.75-0.20%
FTSE 10017:296537.91-45.85-0.70%
All Ords08:465380.3026.700.50%
NZSE 5007:485076.2812.740.25%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold $19:591302.29-24.03-1.81%
Gold R19:5913764.8913764.890.00%
Gold R/kg19:58442481-5012-1.12%
Silver $19:5919.4900-.4630-2.32%
Platinum $19:591438.90-21.60-1.48%
Palladium $19:59793.00-13.83-1.71%
Brent Crude19:38108.811.481.38%
Rand / Dollar19:5910.57000.06730.64%
Rand / Pound19:5517.64400.10210.58%
Rand / Euro19:5514.59830.07820.54%
Rand / NZD19:599.13250.01240.14%
Rand / AUD19:559.8826-0.0150-0.15%
Yen / Dollar19:59101.7520-0.0880-0.09%
Euro / Dollar19:590.72400.72400.00%
Dollar / Euro19:591.3813-0.0005-0.03%
Pound / Dollar19:500.5976-0.0001-0.02%

Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today

Trading Statistics
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 TELEMASTR  1501511.11.%1500
2 RARE  600509.09.%600
3 THARISA  25251757.45.%14000
4 TREMATON  365257.35.%800
5 CONVERGE  12076.19.%152700
6 DIPULA-A  1100504.76.%10300
7 SPANJRD  460204.55.%19500
8 INDEQTY  480204.35.%10000
9 METROFILE  510204.08.%30980
10 CONTROL  13653.82.%9600
11 TRADEH  1390503.73.%750
12 BCX  570203.64.%3409434
13 COMAIR  419143.46.%11350
14 BELL  1726603.45.%7687
15 ALTRON  2449793.33.%31349
16 AUSTRO  16053.23.%51000
17 ASCEN_A  490153.16.%46405
18 EHSV  870263.08.%19554
19 PALLINGHT  340103.03.%357763
20 RCL  1562432.83.%28460

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 VUNANI  150-28-15.73.%87276
2 DIPULA-B  700-100-12.50.%1300
3 NET1UEPS  9410-1090-10.38.%4
4 CULLINAN  230-20-8.00.%332
5 AMECOR  280-19-6.35.%2000
6 MERAFE  110-7-5.98.%1117702
7 MASSMART  12501-700-5.30.%245753
8 HARMONY  3318-172-4.93.%626078
9 ACCELERAT  485-25-4.90.%23500
10 BUILDMX  258-12-4.44.%47500
11 SANTAM  19331-869-4.30.%25291
12 CONDUIT  143-6-4.03.%29800
13 OANDO  120-5-4.00.%2342
14 CLICKS  6050-250-3.97.%1471582
15 CAMAC  811-32-3.80.%8925
16 ANGGOLD  18425-724-3.78.%1432161
17 SEPHAKU  645-25-3.73.%6000
18 SAPPI  3380-124-3.54.%1385678
19 INTEWASTE  139-5-3.47.%227840
20 WBHO  13710-485-3.42.%151610

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 TELEMASTR  1501501511.11.%1500
2 ADAPTIT  910910151.68.%538750
3 RMIH  29853018431.46.%2095528
4 PETMIN  250262-6-2.34.%941374

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 BELL  17261715603.45.%7687

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Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4042,905.65-359.39-0.83%
Mid Cap61,565.21-837.49-1.34%
Small Cap51,921.78-51.72-0.10%
Resource 2055,963.01-524.58-0.93%
Industrial 2554,300.02-491.09-0.90%
Financial 1513,461.07-77.58-0.57%
Financial & Ind. 3058,009.03-461.15-0.79%
All Share47,789.76-423.50-0.88%
Oil & Gas 43,200.34-152.10-0.35%
Mining 33,535.93-373.65-1.10%
Gold Mining1,501.16-49.98-3.22%
Platinum Mining49.88-.38-0.76%
GENERAL MINING9,678.85-85.57-0.88%
Oil & Gas Producers 23,228.02-81.79-0.35%
Basic Materials 29,494.31-341.24-1.14%
Chemicals 23,672.91-294.65-1.23%
Forestry & Paper 28,916.39-576.56-1.95%
Industrial Metals 21,226.85-38.39-0.18%
Industrials 43,989.52-451.31-1.02%
General Industrials 139.01-1.53-1.09%
Consumer Goods 57,859.35-378.72-0.65%
Automobiles & Parts 9,361.27-330.61-3.41%
Household Goods353.1120.68%
Health Care 75,894.24-237.97-0.31%
Beverages 183.54-4.09-2.18%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 68,418.41-568.25-0.82%
Personal Goods 1,036.624.600.45%
Consumer Services 10,665.04-116.43-1.08%
General Retailers 58,895.22-818.77-1.37%
Travel & Leisure 5,556.06-26.41-0.47%
Media 230.66-1.91-0.82%
Support Services 2,630.09-59.19-2.20%
Telecommunications 10,342.88-172.83-1.64%
Financials 35,275.51-216.93-0.61%
Banks 60,660.05-802.43-1.31%
Non-life Insurance 49,336.98-2217.88-4.30%
Life Insurance 33,561.24-102.26-0.30%
General Financial 3,573.08-26.92-0.75%
Technology 41,309.48117.010.28%
SHARIAH TOP40 4,133.71-40-0.97%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL4,237.18-43-1.00%
COAL MINING17,826.14-30-0.17%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 6,577.14-50-0.76%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,205.82-0-0.00%
RESOURCE 30,618.83-298-0.97%
DIVIDEND PLUS218.37-2-1.10%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 409,610.15-97-1.00%
Capped Top 4022,703.00-187-0.82%
Capped All Share24,193.66-213-0.87%
JSE TABACO 7,760.74180.23%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
17/04/2014NUWORLDFebruary 2014 (Interim)
17/04/2014NUWORLD-NFebruary 2014 (Interim)
17/04/2014OANDODecember 2013 (Final)
18/04/2014REBOSISFebruary 2014 (Interim)
22/04/2014CMHFebruary 2014 (Final)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
BARWORLD6%P14/04/1409/05/1419/05/14ZAR 0.0600
PHUMELELA11/04/1416/05/1426/05/14ZAR 0.2800
FPT10/04/1430/04/1412/05/14ZAR 0.2900
ZEDER07/04/1423/04/1405/05/14ZAR 0.0450
ASTRAPAKP04/04/1423/04/1405/05/14ZAR 4.0049
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
CAPITEC26/03/1410/04/1422/04/14ZAR 4.6000
SHFINV-PREF04/03/1410/04/1422/04/14ZAR 3.5400
VUNANI24/03/1410/04/1422/04/14ZAR 0.2500
AFROX27/02/1410/04/1422/04/14ZAR 0.2000
INTUPLC20/03/1410/04/1420/05/14GBP 0.1000

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
RBPRoyal Bafokeng Platinum Ltd.16/04/2014Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
15/04/201417:40REUNERT LIMITED - Correction announcement
15/04/201417:15OLD MUTUAL PLC - Notification of Transactions of Directors, Persons Discharging ...
15/04/201417:07CALGRO M3 HOLDINGS LIMITED - Voluntary trading update
15/04/201416:30INTU PROPERTIES PLC - Directors and PDMRs Shareholdings
15/04/201416:15ALLIED ELECTRONICS CORPORATION LTD - Acquisition by Allied Technologies of remai...
15/04/201416:08NEW EUROPE PROPERTY INVESTMENTS PLC - Dealings in securities by a director and ...
15/04/201416:04INVESTEC BANK LIMITED - Expiry of Equity Structured Products (ESP) - ESPIBR
15/04/201415:49AFRICAN DAWN CAPITAL LIMITED - Results Of The Afdawn General Meeting
15/04/201415:35MORVEST BUSINESS GROUP LIMITED - Renewal of cautionary announcement
15/04/201415:34MORVEST BUSINESS GROUP LIMITED - CANCELLATION OF S343636 Renewal of cautionary
15/04/201415:31DELRAND RESOURCES LIMITED - Delrand Announces Private Placement Financing
15/04/201415:20ABSA BANK LIMITED - ABN48-Interest Rate Reset
15/04/201414:40EVRAZ HIGHVELD STEEL & VANADIUM LTD - First Quarter ending 31 March 2014 Operat...
15/04/201414:25PINNACLE HOLDINGS LTD - Dealing in securities
15/04/201414:20BARCLAYS BANK PLC - BAR001-Interest Rate Reset
15/04/201414:02AQUARIUS PLATINUM LIMITED - New issue announcement, application for quotation of...
15/04/201414:00AQUARIUS PLATINUM LIMITED - Publication of prospectus
15/04/201414:00BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC - Notification of transactions of directors, person...
15/04/201413:22ATTACQ LIMITED - Dealing in securities by the company secretary of Attacq
15/04/201413:09STRATCORP LIMITED - Changes to the board
15/04/201412:48SABVEST LIMITED - Sabvest offshore portfolio
15/04/201412:35MERCEDES-BENZ SOUTH AFRICA LIMITED - New financial instruments listing - MBF038,...
15/04/201412:17SYNTHESIS FUNDING LIMITED - SY1074 - New financial listing instrument
15/04/201412:15EOH HOLDINGS LIMITED - Notification in terms of section 122(3) of the Companies ...
15/04/201411:45CURRO HOLDINGS LIMITED - New Financial Instrument Listing Announcement "COH002"
15/04/201411:31IVUZI INVESTMENTS LIMITED - Full Capital Redemption - IVA416
15/04/201411:21NEDBANK LIMITED - Issue of share instalments
15/04/201410:45BIDVESTCO LIMITED - Full Capital Redemption - BIDC35
15/04/201410:15THE THEKWINI WAREHOUSING CONDUIT (RF) LTD - New Financial Instrument Listing - T...
15/04/201410:15THE THEKWINI WAREHOUSING CONDUIT (RF) LTD - New Financial Instrument Listing - T...
15/04/201410:15THE THEKWINI WAREHOUSING CONDUIT (RF) LTD - New Financial Instrument Listing - T...
15/04/201410:15THE THEKWINI WAREHOUSING CONDUIT (RF) LTD - New Financial Instrument Listing - T...
15/04/201410:10BHP BILLITON PLC - BIL - Notification of initial interests of director - M Brind...
15/04/201409:57BHP BILLITON PLC - BIL - Appointment of Non-Executive Director
15/04/201409:35STANDARD BANK OF SOUTH AFRICA LD - SCIB: The Standard Bank of South Africa - Iss...
15/04/201409:30ROYAL BAFOKENG PLATINUM LIMITED - Directors and Company Secretary Dealings in t...
15/04/201409:30EOH HOLDINGS LIMITED - Dealings in securities by a director
15/04/201409:15NEW GOLD ISSUER LIMITED - NGPLD-Additional Listing of NewGold Palladium Debentur...
15/04/201409:11AQUARIUS PLATINUM LIMITED - New issue announcement, application for quotation of...
15/04/201409:07DATACENTRIX HOLDINGS LIMITED - Preliminary audited results for the year ended 28...
15/04/201409:00INVESTEC PROPERTY FUND LIMITED - New Financial Instrument Listing IPFC01
15/04/201408:52AQUARIUS PLATINUM LIMITED - Terms of rights issue
15/04/201408:49MIRANDA MINERAL HOLDINGS LIMITED - Renewal Of Cautionary Announcement
15/04/201408:45YORK TIMBER HOLDINGS LIMITED - Dealings in securities by a director
15/04/201408:05TSOGO SUN HOLDINGS LIMITED - Acknowledgement of Statement released by SABMILLER ...
15/04/201408:00LITHA HEALTHCARE GROUP LIMITED - Debt restructure and introduction of a R40 mill...
15/04/201408:00BUSINESS CONNEXION GROUP LIMITED - Reviewed condensed consolidated interim finan...
15/04/201408:00SABMILLER PLC - Trading statement
15/04/201407:10OLD MUTUAL PLC - Notification of Transactions of Directors/Persons Discharging M...
15/04/201407:06PICK N PAY HOLDINGS LIMITED - Audited results for the 52 weeks ended 2 March 201...
15/04/201407:05PICK N PAY STORES LIMITED - Audited results for the 52 weeks ended 2 March 2014
15/04/201407:05AQUARIUS PLATINUM LIMITED - Aquarius Platinum Limited (The Company) announces in...
15/04/201407:05BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC - Transaction in own shares

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