Tuesday, 13 August 2013 - 20:00
Charts
Top Down or Bottom Up? “Top down” and “Bottom up” are types of investment processes that determine how managers select their investments. While the processes take different routes to selecting their investments, both have the same goal of selecting the best investments.
Top Down
As the name suggestion you start at the top. The manager starts by formulating a macro view of the economy and tries to forecast which sector will generate the best returns. After selecting a couple industries, the fund manager will find companies in these industries to populate the fund.
An example of top down is:
• The manager believes that interest rates will decrease.
• A decrease in interest rates will increase the populations’ disposable income and the consumer goods and services industry will benefit the most.
• Those companies that are most exposed to increases in disposable income will be included in the fund.
Bottom Up
Bottom up funds are populated by looking at the companies first. No macro view is taken. The fund manager focuses merely on selecting stocks based on their individual qualities.
An example of bottom up is:
• Screen investment universe for shares with high Dividend Yields and low Price to Earnings and Price to Book ratios.
• Follow up with research to ensure that these companies are managed properly.
• Select those shares that have the best metrics.
Bottom Up with Macro Overlay
As with everything in life, there is always a middle ground. This manager starts by searching for companies on a bottom up basis. Before deciding if the company should be included in the fund, the manager takes into account his macro view. Will the company grow in the forecasted economic climate?
An example of where this blended approach would work is with the ever cyclical resource companies. On a fundamental basis the companies are the cheapest they have ever been for a long time, but depending on your macro view this can be buying opportunity or a company to avoid at all cost.
All of the above mention processes have their own pros and cons. If a wrong macro view is forecast, the manager might invest into an industry that returns less than the market, he will then underperform his peers. The same can happen if a manager invests into a company with good quantitative metrics, but faces severe economic head winds.
Understanding what process fund managers follow and how they invest, will help you understand how their funds will perform in various scenarios.
Kind regards,
Gerbrandt Kruger
www.seedinvestments.co.za
info@seedinvestments.co.za
021 914 4966
Tue, 13 Aug 2013
Top News
Massmart Holdings, the South African unit of Wal-Mart Stores Inc, said on Tuesday its first-half earnings rose by as much as 57 percent, lifted by favourable exchange rates. Full story
Johannesburg bourse operator JSE Ltd posted a 35 percent rise in first-half earnings on Tuesday, lifted by robust trading on Africa's biggest exchange that has sent key indices to a series of lifetime records this year. Full story |
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Supporters and opponents of ousted President Mohamed Mursi battled in the streets of downtown Cairo on Tuesday, showing Egypt remained dangerously split six weeks after the army overthrew him in response to mass unrest against his rule. Full storyOPEC oil producer Libya
told its customers on Tuesday it could make no promises on crude
deliveries next month as on-off strikes paralysed its major sea
terminals. Full storyA 10-minute drive from where
negotiators will sit down on Wednesday to resume long-stalled
Middle East peace talks, Israeli bulldozers are busy reshaping
land that Palestinians want for their future state. Full story |
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Markets | European shares hit a 2-1/2 month
high on Tuesday as upbeat economic data reinforced expectations
the euro zone is finally crawling out of. . . Full story | | Gold fell 1 percent on
Tuesday, set to snap a four-day winning streak, weighed down by
better U.S. consumer spending data and after. . . Full story | | Fresh signs of a recovery in the
UK housing sector helped nudge Britain's benchmark share index
higher on Tuesday, with several traders expecting. . . Full story | | U.S. stocks fell modestly on
Tuesday, pulled lower by consumer stocks, particularly
homebuilders, in another day of light trading volume.. . . Full story |
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| U.S. Treasuries yields rose and
the dollar climbed to one-week highs on Tuesday after a gauge of
U.S. consumer spending rose at its. . . Full story | | U.S. stocks turned negative and
fell to session lows in morning trading on Tuesday, putting the
S&P 500 on track for its sixth. . . Full story | | U.S. stocks edged higher after
the open on Tuesday following the fifth decline in six days by
the S&P 500 indexes as investors. . . Full story | | Gains in healthcare group
GlaxoSmithKline and further signs of a pick-up in the UK
housing sector helped lift Britain's benchmark equity index on
Tuesday.. . . Full story |
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SA Business | South African gold producer Sibanye Gold reported a 70 percent drop in first-half profit, hit by a fire at a mine that has slowed production, and said it would not pay a dividend until contentious wage talks were settled.. . . Full story | | South Africa's rand steadied against the dollar early on Tuesday, struggling against a bolstered greenback as investors anticipated upbeat data on the world's biggest economy.. . . Full story |
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| South African physical coal is trading higher than the equivalent European contract for the first time in six weeks, as unions in the world's fifth largest exporter declared a dispute over wages and buyers stocked up ahead of winter.. . . Full story | | South Africa's Treasury sold a total 2.35 billion rand of its 2023, 2037 and 2041 government bonds on Tuesday.. . . Full story |
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Company News | A review of the financial results for the year ended 30 June 2013 by management has indicated that the earnings per. . . Full story | | PPC announced the appointment of Azola Lowan to the position of Executive, Strategy and Investor Relations.
Kevin Odendaal, the current. . . Full story | | Shareholders were referred to prior cautionary announcements, the last of which was published on 08 July 2013, relating to the International. . . Full story | | The directors of Oasis Crescent Property Fund Managers Ltd., the manager of the Fund ("the Manager"), advised unitholders of the Fund. . . Full story |
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| Sanlam shareholders are advised that the Group's Headline Earnings per share and Earnings per share for the six months ended 30. . . Full story | | Shareholders were referred to the various cautionary announcements released over the past 9 months relating to the investigation by the Financial. . . Full story | | Shareholders are referred to the cautionary announcement published on SENS on 21 January 2013 and the subsequent renewal of cautionary announcement. . . Full story | | Shareholders are referred to the SENS announcements dated 21 June and 13 June 2013 where shareholders were advised that Chandler Coal. . . Full story |
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Company Results | Revenue from continuing operations for the year ended 30 June 2013 soared to R11.1 billion (2012: R8.8 billion). Operating profit rose. . . Full story | | Revenue was up 18.6% to R1.5 billion (R1.3 billion). Gross profit almost doubled to R325.2 million (R163 million). Net attributable profit. . . Full story | | Revenue for the interim period fell to R268.9 million (R270. million) whilst operating profit was greater at R13.8 million (R13.3 million).. . . Full story | | Total profit for the period slumped to USD27 000 (USD24.1 million). In addition, basic and diluted earnings per common share declined. . . Full story |
World Markets (Spot Prices)
Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | JSE Overall | 17:00 | 42685.35 | 188.05 | 0.44% | JSE Top 40 | 17:00 | 38235.45 | 162.97 | 0.43% | JSE Gold | 17:00 | 1292.36 | -5.09 | -0.39% | JSE Financial | 17:00 | 30852.79 | 70.14 | 0.23% | JSE Industrial | 17:00 | 55552.48 | 238.89 | 0.43% | JSE Indust 25 | 17:00 | 48661.25 | 194.28 | 0.40% | JSE Resource | 17:00 | 49734.32 | 288.59 | 0.58% | DJ Futures | 19:50 | 15470.00 | 72.00 | 0.47% | DJ Ind | 19:58 | 15479.67 | 59.99 | 0.39% | SP 500 | 19:58 | 1694.90 | 5.43 | 0.32% | Nasdaq | 19:58 | 3680.35 | 10.40 | 0.28% | FTSE 100 | 17:35 | 6611.94 | 37.60 | 0.57% | DAX | 18:12 | 8415.76 | 56.51 | 0.68% | CAC40 | 18:12 | 4092.50 | 20.82 | 0.51% | Nikkei | 08:28 | 13867.00 | 347.57 | 2.57% | Shanghai | 09:30 | 2106.16 | 4.87 | 0.23% | Hang-Seng | 10:28 | 22541.13 | 269.85 | 1.21% | All Ords | 09:11 | 5141.60 | 47.80 | 0.94% | NZSE 50 | 07:48 | 4525.82 | 3.52 | 0.08% |
| | Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | Gold $ | 19:59 | 1321.80 | -14.84 | -1.11% | Gold R | 00:00 | 13199.65 | 308.36 | 2.39% | Gold R/kg | 19:58 | 423741 | -1769 | -0.42% | Silver $ | 19:59 | 21.4720 | .1050 | 0.49% | Platinum $ | 19:59 | 1495.50 | 3.00 | 0.20% | Palladium $ | 19:59 | 738.20 | 2.80 | 0.38% | R157 | 17:40 | 6.09 | .03 | 0.50% | R186 | 17:34 | 8.31 | .14 | 1.71% | R204 | 16:50 | 7.06 | .02 | 0.36% | R207 | 16:49 | 7.40 | .01 | 0.20% | Brent Crude | 19:58 | 109.51 | 1.29 | 1.19% | Rand / Dollar | 19:59 | 9.9677 | 0.0906 | 0.92% | Rand / Pound | 19:55 | 15.3592 | 0.1164 | 0.76% | Rand / Euro | 19:55 | 13.2104 | 0.0734 | 0.56% | Rand / NZD | 00:00 | 7.9014 | 0.0280 | 0.36% | Rand / AUD | 19:55 | 9.0625 | 0.0265 | 0.29% | Yen / Dollar | 19:58 | 98.2200 | 1.1850 | 1.22% | Euro / Dollar | 00:00 | 0.7519 | 0.0020 | 0.27% | Dollar / Euro | 19:59 | 1.3256 | -0.0043 | -0.33% | Pound / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.6471 | 0.0006 | 0.09% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today
Trading Statistics
Date | Adv. | Decl. | Unch. | Actives | Volume | Value | Trades | Orders |
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13/08/2013 | 211 | 139 | 83 | 433 | 253,986,863 | R14,368,764,025 | 148542 | 1000435 | 12/08/2013 | 231 | 144 | 78 | 453 | 206,880,220 | R15,905,422,953 | 181544 | 945496 | 08/08/2013 | 215 | 130 | 69 | 414 | 160,020,044 | R11,359,896,356 | 107692 | 1173952 | 07/08/2013 | 137 | 205 | 73 | 415 | 209,028,670 | R13,116,341,771 | 140217 | 1261220 | 06/08/2013 | 124 | 205 | 81 | 410 | 213,692,368 | R11,374,743,122 | 118569 | 1136092 |
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Index Summary Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Top 40 | 38,235.45 | 162.97 | 0.43% | Industrial | 55,552.48 | 238.89 | 0.43% | Mid Cap | 55,878.51 | 264.98 | 0.48% | Small Cap | 46,070.62 | 327.31 | 0.72% | Resource 20 | 49,734.32 | 288.59 | 0.58% | Industrial 25 | 48,661.25 | 194.28 | 0.40% | Financial 15 | 11,629.06 | 26.42 | 0.23% | Financial & Ind. 30 | 51,567.68 | 182.84 | 0.36% | All Share | 42,685.35 | 188.05 | 0.44% | Oil & Gas | 35,698.72 | 476.00 | 1.35% | Mining | 30,228.37 | 139.14 | 0.46% | Gold Mining | 1,292.36 | -5.09 | -0.39% | Platinum Mining | 46.37 | .64 | 1.40% | GENERAL MINING | 8,711.39 | 40.33 | 0.47% | Oil & Gas Producers | 19,194.54 | 255.93 | 1.35% | Basic Materials | 26,714.48 | 145.12 | 0.55% | Chemicals | 22,163.19 | 217.69 | 0.99% | Forestry & Paper | 25,869.42 | 304.52 | 1.19% | Industrial Metals | 24,037.72 | 376.03 | 1.59% | Industrials | 40,860.64 | -273.57 | -0.67% | General Industrials | 122.28 | -1.59 | -1.28% | Consumer Goods | 52,337.69 | 470.31 | 0.91% | Automobiles & Parts | 8,514.36 | 22.64 | 0.27% | Household Goods | 186.17 | 3 | 1.48% | Health Care | 69,216.38 | 734.12 | 1.07% | Beverages | 164.66 | 1.93 | 1.19% |
| | Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Food Producers | 70,494.09 | -482.87 | -0.68% | Personal Goods | 1,010.75 | 8.99 | 0.90% | Consumer Services | 9,295.67 | -35.34 | -0.38% | General Retailers | 58,210.35 | -98.49 | -0.17% | Travel & Leisure | 5,594.86 | -19.50 | -0.35% | Media | 184.11 | -.99 | -0.53% | Support Services | 2,800.07 | 5.57 | 0.20% | Telecommunications | 9,321.17 | 68.65 | 0.74% | Financials | 30,852.79 | 70.14 | 0.23% | Banks | 51,418.14 | 454.97 | 0.89% | Non-life Insurance | 48,479.43 | 816.71 | 1.71% | Life Insurance | 29,835.84 | -214.39 | -0.71% | General Financial | 2,893.98 | 31.44 | 1.10% | Technology | 41,901.97 | -.79 | -0.00% | SHARIAH TOP40 | 3,654.07 | 22 | 0.60% | FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL | 3,761.85 | 22 | 0.59% | COAL MINING | 20,140.75 | 24 | 0.12% | FTSE JSE Fledgling | 5,576.09 | 13 | 0.24% | FTSE/JSE Alt X | 1,011.50 | -14 | -1.39% | SA LISTED PROPERTY | 495.33 | | -0.40% | CAPPED PROPERTY | 413.15 | | 0.05% | RESOURCE | 27,175.98 | 166 | 0.61% | DIVIDEND PLUS | 207.15 | 2 | 1.10% | FTSE/JSE RAFI 40 | 8,438.85 | 36 | 0.42% | Capped Top 40 | 20,193.58 | 84 | 0.42% | Capped All Share | 21,597.70 | 96 | 0.45% | JSE TABACO | 6,812.47 | 66 | 0.99% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes** Code | Company Name | Status | Updated | APN | ASPEN PHARMACARE HLDGS | HOLD | 12/08/2013 | NED | NEDBANK GROUP LTD | BUY | 09/08/2013 | MTN | MTN GROUP LIMITED | BUY | 09/08/2013 | MPC | MR PRICE GROUP LIMITED | SELL | 08/08/2013 | NHM | NORTHAM PLATINUM LIMITED | SELL | 08/08/2013 |
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Results Expected** Expected | Company Name | Fin. Date | 14/08/2013 | CITYLDG | June 2013 (Final) | 14/08/2013 | EASTPLATS | June 2013 (Interim) | 14/08/2013 | FORTRESSA | June 2013 (Final) | 14/08/2013 | FORTRESSB | June 2013 (Final) | 14/08/2013 | HARMONY | June 2013 (Final) |
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Recent Dividends** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | GROUP 5 | 12/08/2013 | 19/09/2013 | 30/09/2013 | R 0.3500 | MONDILTD | 08/08/2013 | 16/08/2013 | 17/09/2013 | R 0.0955 | MONDIPLC | 08/08/2013 | 16/08/2013 | 17/09/2013 | R 0.0955 | OLDMUTUAL | 07/08/2013 | 19/09/2013 | 31/10/2013 | R 0.0210 | SHPRT 2ND5 | 07/08/2013 | 23/08/2013 | 02/09/2013 | R 0.0500 |
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Ex Div** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | KUMBA | 19/07/2013 | 08/08/2013 | 19/08/2013 | R 20.1000 | HUDACO | 28/06/2013 | 08/08/2013 | 19/08/2013 | R 1.5500 | SABMILLER | 23/05/2013 | 09/08/2013 | 23/08/2013 | R 0.7700 | ANGLO | 26/07/2013 | 08/08/2013 | 12/09/2013 | R 0.3200 |
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Upcoming AGMs** Code | Company Name | Date | Status | SAH | South African Coal Mining Holdings Ltd. | 14/08/2013 | Confirmed | GDN | Gooderson Leisure Corporation Ltd. | 15/08/2013 | Confirmed | IVTP | Invicta Holdings Ltd. | 16/08/2013 | Confirmed | IVT | Invicta Holdings Ltd. | 16/08/2013 | Confirmed | MMG | MICROmega Holdings Ltd. | 16/08/2013 | Confirmed |
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