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 The Sharenet Daily 
Tuesday, 25 June 2013 - 20:00
Top News
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)

Local or Global Equity?

The rand has been in a broad weakening phase versus the US dollar (and other hard currencies) over the past 30 months, which has been exacerbated in the past 2 months. The rand has weakened by over 30% against both the USD and EUR since the end of 2010, with chart 1below indicating how this has been a one way bet for a while now.

Chart 1: Rand vs USD and EUR

The rand weakness over this period has resulted in excellent rand returns for any investment based in developed markets. Seed clients have joined in this performance as all of our Funds and portfolios have been overweight global assets over this period.

Now that the rand is trading relatively close to its long term fair value, the relative attractiveness of the underlying asset classes becomes more important when making the decision to allocate between local and global assets.

When looking at the relative attractiveness of the local stock market (as proxied by the ALSI) to global markets (simply using the S&P500 as a proxy), we take a whole range of factors into account (of which the relative attractiveness of the currencies is but one input).

Chart 2 below shows the relative performance of the ALSI versus the S&P500 over the past 25 years when both are measured in USD – i.e. a like for like comparison. Clearly there have been periods where the S&P500 outperformed (notably the end of 1994 – to the end of 2001) and the ALSI outperformed (2001 to the end of 2010).

Chart 2: Relative Performance (in USD) of ALSI vs S&P500

Since the end of 2010, until now, the ALSI and S&P500 have each done approximately 30% in their local currencies, but the rand weakness has meant that the S&P500 has outperformed. There is still some way to go for the S&P500 to reach its 25 year ‘fair value’ versus the ALSI, and we have seen in the past that markets typically overshoot fair value (both on the way up and on the way down).

With developed markets coming off a low base, after the poor performance from these markets for much of the first decade in the 21st century, we expect that there is a lot more value in developed markets when compared to emerging markets. The relative PE multiples reflect this view, and can be seen in chart 3 below:

Chart 3: Relative PE of ALSI vs S&P500

Save for a brief period in 2009 when US profits fell spectacularly (profits fell by over 90% from January 2008 – July 2009, only to rise by 963% over the next 18 months) the ALSI has been expensive versus the S&P500 on a PE relative basis since the end of 2006. We expect that this relative differential will move closer to its long term average over time – the ALSI has typically traded at a discount (i.e. lower PE) to the S&P500 as a result of the extra premium required to invest in SA companies.

As mentioned at the start of the report these are merely a few of the factors that we look at when making the decision between local and global equities. Further factors would include looking at non US markets, and the fact that there are more opportunities within the broad global equity universe when compared to the relatively concentrated local market.

Seed clients have been underweight local equity since the beginning of 2013, and this has helped the relative performance of our Funds year to date. We continuously monitor the relative attractiveness of equity markets, as well as their attractiveness relative to other asset classes.

Take care,

Mike Browne

021 914 4966

Tue, 25 Jun 2013
Top News
South African stocks, led by blue-chip retail shares such as Truworths, rose on Tuesday in line with a global rebound after reports on manufacturing, business spending and housing added to signs of a pick-up in U.S. economic activity.  Full story

South Africa on Tuesday cut its forecast of maize output for 2013 to 11.375 million tonnes from a previous estimate of 11.44 million tonnes.  Full story
President Vladimir Putin confirmed on Tuesday a former U.S. spy agency contractor sought by the United States was in the transit area of a Moscow airport but ruled out handing him over to Washington, dismissing U.S. criticisms as "ravings and rubbish".  Full story
Taliban militants attacked key buildings near Afghanistan's presidential palace and the U.S. CIA headquarters in Kabul, a brazen assault that could derail attempts for peace talks to end 12 years of war.  Full story
Syria's military pounded rebel bastions in Damascus on Tuesday and Saudi Arabia demanded an arms embargo on what it called President Bashar al-Assad's genocidal and illegitimate regime.  Full story
Global equity markets rose and the dollar recovered from early losses on Tuesday after U.S. economic data ranging from manufacturing to housing to. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks rose solidly on Tuesday, partially recovering from recent steep declines as strong data pointed to improvements in the economy.. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks extended gains, with the S&P 500 climbing 1 percent after better-than-expected economic data, but the positive data raised questions about the Federal. . .  Full story
Soothing words from central bankers in China and the United States calmed investors on Tuesday and contributed to European shares bouncing off seven-month lows.. . .  Full story

Britain's benchmark share index rebounded on Tuesday from 5-1/2 month lows, with cruise ship group Carnival leading the gainers, after steps by China to. . .  Full story
Gold eased on Tuesday as positive U.S. housing and consumer confidence data lifted the dollar, and as speculation that the Federal Reserve is. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks opened higher on Tuesday, rebounding from recent weakness after comments from U.S. and Chinese central bankers eased concerns about a. . .  Full story
U.S. stock index futures slightly added to gains on Tuesday after May durable goods rose more than expected.. . .  Full story
SA Business
South Africa's rand strengthened in early trade on Tuesday, bolstered as domestic firms brought back overseas earning ahead of the end of the financial quarter.. . .  Full story

Aquarius Platinum has reached a one-year wage agreement with South Africa's National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) at its Kroondal mine, a. . .  Full story
South African media group Naspers' Internet division has overtaken pay television as its key revenue driver, it showed in results on Tuesday, when it. . .  Full story
South African power utility Eskom briefly cut supply to one of BHP Billiton's aluminium smelters on Monday night after nation-wide demand. . .  Full story
South Africa's AMCU mining union is demanding gold mining companies more than double the wages of entry-level workers, according to a. . .  Full story

Major emerging-market nations will work together to limit the effects that a strong U.S. dollar could have on their economies as. . .  Full story
The South African Reserve Bank's monthly leading business cycle indicator inched up 0.2 percent in April from March, mainly due to. . .  Full story
Wage demands submitted to South African gold producers on Monday by the hard line Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union equal. . .  Full story
South African media and Internet firm Naspers posted an expected 20 percent jump in annual profit on Tuesday, boosted by strong. . .  Full story
Company News
Aquarius advised that its wholly owned subsidiary, Aquarius Platinum (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd. ("AQPSA") has reached a wage agreement with the. . .  Full story
Mr Asher Bohbot, Chief Executive Officer of EOH, and his management team held an EOH Investor Open Day on 25 June. . .  Full story
At the annual general meeting of shareholders held on 25 June 2013, all the resolutions as set out in the notice. . .  Full story
Michael Craig Easter has been appointed as financial director to the board of ELB with effect from 1 July 2013. He. . .  Full story

Aquarius advised that its wholly owned subsidiary, Aquarius Platinum (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd. ("AQPSA") has reached agreement with a wholly owned subsidiary of Anglo American Platinum Ltd. ("Amplats") to extend the Kroondal PSA arrangement. The salient terms of the agreement are: * Amplats will contribute ** 9.91 Million tons @ 2.38 g/t Proved Ore Reserves and ** 6.06 Million tons @ 2.48 g/t Probable Ore Reserves to the Kroondal Mine. Total Ore Reserve - 15.97 Million tons. . .  Full story
Company Results
Revenue increased to R676.9 million (R630.8 million). Gross profit rose to R72.7 million (R64.1 million), but operating profit declined to R27.7. . .  Full story
Revenue increased by 24% to R13.5 billion (R10.9 billion). Gross profit was up 29% to R3.1 billion (R2.4 billion) and operating. . .  Full story
Revenue for the year grew by 27% to R50.2 billion (R39.5 billion) and operating profit went 19% up to R3.8 billion. . .  Full story
Due to a change in the financial year end in the previous period, the following results are incomparable. Revenue was R605.4. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0038484.19408.971.07%
JSE Top 4017:0034187.43394.301.17%
JSE Gold17:001232.61-31.85-2.52%
JSE Financial17:0028619.31565.412.02%
JSE Industrial17:0050540.00624.021.25%
JSE Indust 2517:0044026.91609.511.40%
JSE Resource17:0043218.2134.230.08%
DJ Futures19:5214655.0067.000.46%
DJ Ind19:5814760.70101.140.69%
SP 50019:581587.0613.970.89%
FTSE 10017:356101.9172.811.21%
All Ords08:444633.50-17.60-0.38%
NZSE 5007:484316.99-47.06-1.08%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold $19:591275.40-7.01-0.55%
Gold R19:5812867.56-212.62-1.63%
Gold R/kg19:58413692-2691-0.65%
Silver $19:5919.5710-.0750-0.38%
Platinum $19:591349.0018.001.35%
Palladium $19:59666.408.101.23%
Brent Crude19:58101.44.280.28%
Rand / Dollar19:5910.09370.02840.28%
Rand / Pound19:5515.51070.00070.00%
Rand / Euro19:5513.1979-0.0149-0.11%
Rand / NZD24/067.9313-0.0075-0.09%
Rand / AUD19:559.34600.02880.31%
Yen / Dollar19:5997.75000.03800.04%
Euro / Dollar19:550.76360.00180.24%
Dollar / Euro19:591.3091-0.0032-0.24%
Pound / Dollar19:550.64850.00080.12%

Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today

Trading Statistics
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 S-OCEAN  1391411.20.%48449
2 MASONITE  30002147.68.%2150
3 FORTRESSA  14981067.61.%532017
4 MASTDRILL  895607.19.%76518
5 ELLIES   798537.11.%844788
6 TORRE  160106.67.%3226815
7 SA-CORP  371185.10.%4274989
8 DISCOVERY  78183564.77.%1405414
9 A-V-I  57002544.66.%427359
10 AQUARIUS  615274.59.%1671614
11 SANLAM  43201874.52.%7970036
12 REBOSIS  1180514.52.%58758
13 ARGENT  580254.50.%63596
14 ARROW-A  705304.44.%408200
15 TRUWTHS  82533514.44.%1938231
16 MEDCLIN  65012764.43.%1226560
17 VUKILE  1595664.32.%401401
18 DELTA  495204.21.%9900
19 INVPLC  62642484.12.%2030019
20 KUMBAIO  4599418204.12.%662604

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 ATLATSA  185-15-7.50.%1605
2 JUBILEE  101-8-7.34.%111400
3 AFOVR-N  1500-100-6.25.%2000
4 DIGICOR  189-10-5.03.%98600
5 ALTRON  1950-100-4.88.%13267
6 GOLDONE  128-6-4.48.%24350
7 METMAR  129-6-4.44.%68350
8 IMPLATS  8600-381-4.24.%2826259
9 DRDGOLD  546-24-4.21.%189863
10 SIBANYE  740-29-3.77.%7540940
11 NORTHAM  3250-126-3.73.%312180
12 CADIZ  130-5-3.70.%17500
13 RBPLAT  4767-183-3.70.%25154
14 VALUE  530-20-3.64.%10000
15 HOSP-B  530-20-3.64.%17043
16 AVENG  2825-104-3.55.%730206
17 ANGGOLD  14070-466-3.21.%1374182
18 BEE-SASOL  31501-999-3.07.%197
19 ESORFRANK  136-4-2.86.%16468
20 GFIELDS  5033-139-2.69.%3646969

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 TREMATON  25025052.04.%10000
2 AECI  1095011600-50-0.45.%179769

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 AFOVR-N  15001500-100-6.25.%2000
2 IMPLATS  86008586-381-4.24.%2826259
3 ANGGOLD  1407013809-466-3.21.%1374182
4 GFIELDS  50334930-139-2.69.%3646969
5 ANGLO  2024219957-157-0.77.%4651646
6 HARMONY  34713291511.49.%2736884

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Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4034,187.00394.001.17%
Mid Cap52,484.00322.000.62%
Small Cap43,311.00300.000.70%
Resource 2043,218.0035.000.08%
Industrial 2544,026.00609.001.40%
Financial 1510,696.00227.002.17%
Financial & Ind. 3046,711.00763.001.66%
All Share38,484.00409.001.07%
Oil & Gas 31,697.00414.001.32%
Mining 26,106.00-60.00-0.23%
Gold Mining1,232.00-31.00-2.48%
Platinum Mining35.00.00-0.78%
GENERAL MINING7,520.0026.000.35%
Oil & Gas Producers 17,042.00222.001.33%
Basic Materials 23,058.00-5.00-0.02%
Chemicals 20,805.0074.000.36%
Forestry & Paper 20,378.00290.001.45%
Industrial Metals 23,774.00796.003.47%
Industrials 38,562.00156.000.41%
General Industrials
Consumer Goods 49,011.001085.002.27%
Automobiles & Parts 7,778.0059.000.77%
Household Goods163.0053.68%
Health Care 61,624.00903.001.49%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 67,560.001188.001.79%
Personal Goods 856.0021.002.60%
Consumer Services 83,140.00668.000.81%
General Retailers 56,868.001354.002.44%
Travel & Leisure 5,207.0059.001.15%
Media 147.00.00-0.45%
Support Services 2,361.00-2.00-0.12%
Telecommunications 79,314.00-609.00-0.76%
Financials 28,619.00566.002.02%
Banks 47,752.00753.001.60%
Non-life Insurance 48,083.001123.002.39%
Life Insurance 26,869.00766.002.94%
General Financial 2,645.0053.002.08%
Technology 38,111.0071.000.19%
SHARIAH TOP40 3,158.0070.25%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,291.0060.21%
COAL MINING17,859.00730.41%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 5,571.00-8-0.15%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 982.00-1-0.16%
RESOURCE 23,583.0090.04%
DIVIDEND PLUS194.0031.67%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 407,543.00600.81%
Capped Top 4018,037.002051.15%
Capped All Share19,486.002081.08%
JSE TABACO 6,627.00580.89%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
26/06/2013CAFCAMarch 2013 (Interim)
26/06/2013PLATFIELDFebruary 2013 (Final)
26/06/2013SIBANYEMarch 2013 (Q)
27/06/2013ARGENTMarch 2013 (Final)
27/06/2013OANDODecember 2012 (Final)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
WESCOAL24/06/201326/07/201305/08/2013R 0.0300
AMECOR20/06/201305/07/201315/07/2013R 0.1000
MAS19/06/201305/07/201319/07/2013R 0.0150
LIBHOLD1118/06/201328/06/201308/07/2013R 0.0550
AME14/06/201319/07/201329/07/2013R 2.0000
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
VODACOM20/05/201321/06/201301/07/2013R 4.3000
TIGBRANDS30/05/201321/06/201301/07/2013R 3.1000
OCEANA09/05/201321/06/201301/07/2013R 1.0000
ALTRON PP08/05/201321/06/201301/07/2013R 0.6000
ALTRON08/05/201321/06/201301/07/2013R 0.6000

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
PWKPick n Pay Holdings Ltd.25/06/2013Confirmed
RBARBA Holdings Ltd.25/06/2013Confirmed
CGRCalgro M3 Holdings Ltd.25/06/2013Confirmed
PIKPick n Pay Stores Ltd.25/06/2013Confirmed
SOHSouth Ocean Holdings Ltd.25/06/2013Unconfirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
25/06/201317:25VILLAGE MAIN REEF LIMITED - Dealings in securities by an associate of a director...
25/06/201317:12SASOL LIMITED - Correction: SENS announcement on dealing in securities by a dire...
25/06/201317:05CURRO HOLDINGS LIMITED - Curro awarded National Scale Investment Grade Credit Ra...
25/06/201317:00INTU PROPERTIES PLC - Transactions of Directors
25/06/201316:55AFRICAN BANK LIMITED - Interest Rate Reset - ABL16
25/06/201316:50TIMES MEDIA GROUP LIMITED - Disposal of interests in Monte cinemas and Suncoast ...
25/06/201316:50VUKILE PROPERTY FUND LIMITED - Dealings in securities by directors and company s...
25/06/201316:35SYNERGY INCOME FUND LIMITED - Change to the board of directors
25/06/201316:31MASTER DRILLING GROUP LTD - Trading Statement
25/06/201316:07STANLIB COLLECTIVE INVESTMENTS LTD - Distribution announcement - STPROP
25/06/201316:06STANLIB COLLECTIVE INVESTMENTS LTD - Distribution announcement - STANSX
25/06/201316:05STANLIB COLLECTIVE INVESTMENTS LTD - Distribution announcement - STAN40
25/06/201315:53CONSOLIDATED INFRASTRUCTURE GRP LTD - Dealings in securities by an associate of ...
25/06/201315:34AQUARIUS PLATINUM LIMITED - Wage agreement reached at Kroondal
25/06/201315:33SABLE PLATINUM LIMITED - Update To Shareholders
25/06/201315:15EOH HOLDINGS LIMITED - EOH Investor Open Day Presentation
25/06/201315:11MURRAY & ROBERTS HOLDINGS LIMITED - Notice of acquisition of Murray & Roberts se...
25/06/201314:19METMAR LIMITED - Announcement regarding the disposal of the West African Group d...
25/06/201314:03PINNACLE TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS LTD - Dealing in securities by a director of Pinnac...
25/06/201314:00ROLFES HOLDINGS LIMITED - Dealing in securities by directors
25/06/201313:30PRESCIENT LIMITED - Reviewed Condensed Financial Results for the Year Ended 31 M...
25/06/201313:25ALLIED ELECTRONICS CORPORATION LTD - Dealing in securities by an associate of a ...
25/06/201312:55CALGRO M3 HOLDINGS LIMITED - Results of Annual General Meeting
25/06/201312:45BAYPORT SECURITISATION (RF) LTD - Bayport Securitisation monthly investor report...
25/06/201312:24SOVEREIGN FOOD INVESTMENTS LIMITED - Dealing in securities by an associate of a ...
25/06/201312:00SABMILLER PLC - Notification of a transaction by a director
25/06/201312:00BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC - Notification of transactions by Directors, person...
25/06/201311:55ALLIED ELECTRONICS CORPORATION LTD - Dealing in securities by a director
25/06/201311:55SYNERGY INCOME FUND LIMITED - Financial Effects in respect of the Atlantis acqui...
25/06/201311:45NAMPAK LIMITED - Share Code and ISIN for declaration of cumulative preference di...
25/06/201311:45ARGENT INDUSTRIAL LIMITED - Disclosure of acquisition of securities
25/06/201311:30RBA HOLDINGS LIMITED - Results of Annual General Meeting
25/06/201311:08ABSA BANK LIMITED - Interest Rate Reset
25/06/201311:01TAWANA RESOURCES NL - Metallurgical test work confirms high-grade 60%+FE product...
25/06/201311:00COAL OF AFRICA LIMITED - Holdings in Company
25/06/201310:42ELB GROUP LIMITED - Change to the board of directors
25/06/201310:32HYPROP INVESTMENTS LIMITED - REIT Status Approval
25/06/201310:31NAMPAK LIMITED - Declaration of cumulative preference dividends
25/06/201310:30VUNANI PROPERTY INVESTMENT FUND LTD - Real Estate Investment Trust ("REIT") Stat...
25/06/201310:29VUNANI PROPERTY INVESTMENT FUND LTD - Posting of circular and notice of a genera...
25/06/201309:48SATRIX COLLECTIVE INVESTMENT SCHEME - Partial delisting of Satrix 40 securities ...
25/06/201309:27ALERT STEEL HOLDINGS LIMITED - Notifications in terms of section 122(3) of the C...
25/06/201309:15INGUZA INVESTMENTS (PTY) LIMITED - Interest Rate Reset - ING132 ING138
25/06/201309:00CLOVER INDUSTRIES LIMITED - Dealing in securities by a director of a major subsi...
25/06/201308:50SOAPSTONE INVESTMENTS (PTY) LTD - Listing document available and trading of Bond...
25/06/201308:42OANDO PLC - Financial Results for the year ended 31 December 2012
25/06/201308:35EASTERN PLATINUM LIMITED - News release: Crocodile River Mine to be placed on ca...
25/06/201308:00AQUARIUS PLATINUM LIMITED - Extension of Kroondal PSA
25/06/201308:00NIVEUS INVESTMENTS LTD - Posting of the circular for the approval of dividend pr...
25/06/201307:51BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC - Transaction in own shares
25/06/201307:05OMNIA HOLDINGS LIMITED - Audited results for the year ended 31 March 2013
25/06/201307:05CAPITEC BANK HOLDINGS LIMITED - Quarterly disclosure in terms of regulation 43 o...
25/06/201307:05NASPERS LIMITED - Summary of the audited results of the Naspers group for the ye...

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