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The Sharenet Daily 
Tuesday, 13 November 2012 - 20:00
 
Charts
News
Top News
Markets
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)


Charts
 
Market Cycles

The late Sir John Templeton was quoted as saying, “Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”

The chart below reflects a typical market cycle moving from pessimism through to euphoria, before falling back again to pessimism.

Market Sentiment Life Cycle

Source: Fisher Investments

Pessimism, scepticism, optimism, and euphoria are all human emotions which, when applied to given facts, can produce vastly different results. For example a company may produce earnings of say R500 million - in a pessimistic environment investors may be willing to only value the business at 7 times earnings (i.e. R3.5 billion), but in an optimistic and euphoric environment the same investors may be willing to value up to 20 times earnings (i.e. R10 billion).

Over extended periods of time valuations normalise, but through an investment cycle it can, and does, have a huge impact on investor returns.

When markets are pessimistic very few investors perceive of a time when euphoria will once again reign and vice versa. Ideally investors want to be buying in times of pessimism and scepticism and selling when the prevailing mood is euphoric, but this is not an exact science.

Globally while there is still a general prevailing mood of scepticism and very little optimism, there may well be a lot of runway left for the bull market in global equities, which began in pessimism around March 2009. Global market prices firmed 75% to April 2010, but have since traded in a large sideways pattern. For sure there will be a lot more volatility before we reach another euphoric stage.

Some of the indications of the current lack of enthusiasm for global equities are the very high equity risk premium (i.e. yields on shares are trading at a very wide gap compared to the yields on bonds), and net flows which continues to favour bonds over equities.

Given the general lack of optimism for risk assets, there is quite possibly still a long way to go for global markets before we see the top of the next bull market. Fisher Investments make the point that mega cap shares typically take over leadership about mid-way through a bull market and lead by a wide margin for the remaining duration and early into a subsequent bear market.

Kind regards,

Ian de Lange

www.seedinvestments.co.za
info@seedinvestments.co.za
021 914 4966

Tue, 13 Nov 2012
Top News
[IMAGE]
Platinum group metals (PGM) rallied on Tuesday after on a bullish forecast that supply outages earlier this year could turn the markets into a deficit, while gold traded flat as investors awaited more clarifications on Greek aid by the euro zone. Palladium rose over 4 percent, on track for its b  Full story
[IMAGE]
South African stocks ended lower on Tuesday, led by heavyweights such as Anglo American after the mining giant raised cost estimates for its Minas-Rio project in Brazil and warned of lower profits from its Kumba Iron Ore unit.  Full story
The leader of Syria's new opposition coalition urged European states on Tuesday to recognise it as the legitimate government, enabling it to buy the weapons it needs to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad.  Full story
The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, General John Allen, is under investigation for alleged inappropriate communication with a woman at the center of the scandal involving former CIA Director David Petraeus, a senior U.S. defense official said on Tuesday.  Full story
Israel and the Palestinians stepped back from the brink of a new war in the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, sending signals to each other via Egypt that they would hold their fire unless attacked, after five days of mounting violence.  Full story
 
Markets
European shares rebounded late on Tuesday as a fresh round of trader speculation that Spain may be close to asking for a sovereign. . .  Full story
Britain's FTSE 100 share index closed up on Tuesday, recovering from an earlier two-month low in late trade on renewed hopes that. . .  Full story
World stocks rose on Tuesday after U.S. markets turned higher, fueled by strong results from home improvement retailer Home Depot, while the euro. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday in a sharp turnaround from earlier losses, led by gains in retail stocks after strong results from Home. . .  Full story
European shares rebounded late on Tuesday in tandem with gains on Wall Street as a fresh round of trader speculation that Spain may. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday as strong results from Home Depot helped markets rebound from recent weakness generated by fears about the year-end "fiscal. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks pared initial declines and the Dow briefly turned positive on Tuesday, led by gains in Home Depot after the home improvement. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks dipped at the open on Tuesday, hobbled by "fiscal cliff" concerns as an upcoming debate in Congress over solving the nation's. . .  Full story
SA Business
South African police arrested 37 workers for public violence on Tuesday after firing rubber bullets and tear gas to disperse protesters. . .  Full story
Miner Anglo American gave the market a taste of the trouble ahead for its new chief executive, raising cost estimates for. . .  Full story
Supply outages in South Africa are set to push the platinum market into deficit this year as shipments from the world's. . .  Full story
South Africa-focused miner Petra Diamonds said production increased 70 percent in its first quarter, largely due to the inclusion of output. . .  Full story
Rising costs and shrinking demand will force consolidation in the ferrochrome industry over the next two years as companies compete in a market. . .  Full story
South African cement maker PPC could spend about $300 million on funding more acquisitions in Africa, its outgoing chief executive said. . .  Full story
Ferrochrome prices may start to rebound in the second quarter of next year as production cuts take effect and cost pressures keep supply. . .  Full story
Participants in an annual gathering of the London Bullion Metal Association on Tuesday expected gold to reach $1,843 an ounce by the time. . .  Full story
Rand Refinery is building a facility in Singapore to analyse the quality of gold, as it looks to boost its supplies of scrap from Southeast Asia, the chief executive of the. . .  Full story
Kumba Iron Ore warned on Tuesday that its full-year earnings will likely fall at least 20 percent, hit by a wildcat strike at its Sishen mine in South Africa and lower. . .  Full story
South Africa's rand dipped against the dollar on Tuesday as concerns about the U.S. debt mountain and uncertainty over a bailout for Greece heightened risk aversion.. . .  Full story
Company News
At the ninth annual general meeting of participatory interest holders held on 13 November 2012, all the ordinary resolutions and the. . .  Full story
The board accepted the resignation of Ms N L Shirilele from the board with effect from 13 November 2012 due to. . .  Full story
Shareholders were advised that the cautionary announcement relating to the Disposal is hereby withdrawn. Further cautionary announcement Shareholders were advised that the. . .  Full story
Kumbas results for the twelve months ending 31 December 2012 ("the period") will be released on SENS on or about 12. . .  Full story
Shareholders were advised that Morvest, through its wholly owned subsidiary SUHL (the Seller) and subject to the conditions precedent set out. . .  Full story
Business Day reported that Mix Telematics has added more than 40 000 new customers during the six months ended September, double. . .  Full story
As a courtesy, PPC informed its stakeholders that there will be a webcast of its 2012 annual results presentation at 10h00. . .  Full story
In its half-year financial report in July 2012, Anglo reported that, subject to resolving the existing licensing challenges facing the Minas-Rio. . .  Full story
Company Results
Revenue increased by 37% to R3.5 billion (R2.6 billion). Operating income was up 21% to R314.7 million (R260.9 million). Net attributable. . .  Full story
Revenue increased to R564.3 million (September 2011: R469 million), gross profit also improved to R353.4 million (September 2011: R286.2 million). Operating. . .  Full story
Revenue increased to R7.4 billion (R6 billion).Operating profit rose to R1.3 billion (R1 billion). Net attributable profit grew to R655 million. . .  Full story
Revenue rose by 13% to R8.2 billion (R7.2 billion). Operating profit was down 29% to R477.1 million (R674.9 million). Net attributable. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0037394.80-68.00-0.18%
JSE Top 4017:0033178.50-65.00-0.20%
JSE Gold17:002417.18-36.00-1.50%
JSE Financial17:0027662.0719.000.07%
JSE Industrial17:0044908.20141.000.32%
JSE Indust 2517:0038708.23174.000.45%
JSE Resource17:0049014.43-591.00-1.19%
DJ Futures19:3212820.0041.000.32%
DJ Ind19:5812844.4329.350.23%
SP 50019:581383.443.410.25%
Nasdaq19:582899.09-5.17-0.18%
FTSE 10018:355786.2518.980.33%
DAX19:107169.12.360.01%
CAC4019:103430.6018.950.56%
Nikkei08:088661.05-15.39-0.18%
Shanghai09:302047.89-31.39-1.51%
Hang-Seng10:2821188.65-241.65-1.13%
All Ords07:444404.20-65.70-1.47%
NZSE 5006:483970.55-13.44-0.34%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold $19:591726.79-1.46-0.08%
Gold R19:5815155.8147.790.32%
Gold R/kg19:58487207-561-0.12%
Silver $19:5932.5170.13700.42%
Platinum $19:591582.0023.501.51%
Palladium $19:59631.9025.704.24%
R15718:025.49.020.37%
R20416:386.19.050.73%
R20717:426.49.010.15%
Brent Crude19:58107.59-1.29-1.18%
Rand / Dollar19:598.77190.03010.34%
Rand / Pound19:5513.90130.05390.39%
Rand / Euro19:5511.15380.04580.41%
Rand / NZD19:587.18910.03950.55%
Rand / AUD19:559.15670.03870.42%
Yen / Dollar19:5979.4100-0.1330-0.17%
Euro / Dollar19:550.7865-0.0002-0.03%
Dollar / Euro19:591.27090.00030.02%
Pound / Dollar19:450.6295-0.0001-0.02%

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The JSE Today

 Trading Statistics
DateAdv.Decl.Unch.ActivesVolumeValueTradesOrders
13/11/201214120166408197,642,738R12,313,946,6371258331459467
12/11/201219016862420176,513,452R9,640,520,8031166991055692
09/11/201216918363415193,454,546R11,801,309,2381188071561000
08/11/201218415976419195,779,601R12,222,940,645122751306755
07/11/201217815383414214,791,453R12,838,609,9841282281300488
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 LONAFRIC  1572922.66.%2800
2 AMECOR  2102513.51.%44484
3 ARGENT  690365.50.%75132
4 OCEANA  63902914.77.%120860
5 JUBILEE  11654.50.%160215
6 PREMIUM  1699694.23.%9619
7 EASTPLATS  15064.17.%42900
8 AMA  275103.77.%35840
9 LITHA  415153.75.%48121
10 SASFIN  35771273.68.%1118
11 GOLDONE  310103.33.%241000
12 HOSP-A  1515453.06.%14041
13 ATLATSA  14842.78.%10000
14 CBH  400102.56.%103800
15 SANLAM  4014962.45.%7434442
16 DISCOVERY  55901252.29.%943651
17 AFRO-C  450102.27.%113373
18 IMPLATS  147802841.96.%1204384
19 NEDCOR  180933431.93.%980167
20 SAPPI  2613481.87.%2141365

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 WITSGOLD  1500-300-16.67.%1027
2 REX-TRUE  1750-200-10.26.%30
3 ADAPTIT  138-11-7.38.%98500
4 MVELASERV  820-50-5.75.%300
5 PRESCIENT  120-6-4.76.%325868
6 EXXARO  16700-795-4.54.%2753620
7 ARCMITTAL  2980-135-4.33.%286849
8 AQUARIUS  549-20-3.51.%273519
9 ANGLO  24662-898-3.51.%4953417
10 ELLIES   636-23-3.49.%342769
11 JSE  6950-250-3.47.%1449706
12 MONDILTDP  8794-306-3.36.%406201
13 CADIZ  147-5-3.29.%38201
14 EFFICIENT  150-5-3.23.%25000
15 MONDIPLCP  8825-275-3.02.%928413
16 PERGRIN  1050-30-2.78.%81700
17 KGMEDIA  2000-55-2.68.%49454
18 WBHO  14867-383-2.51.%173977
19 COAL  195-5-2.50.%347234
20 DCENTRIX  395-10-2.47.%29556

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 SASFIN  357735771273.68.%1118
2 WOOLIES  72257237751.05.%1725492
3 MTN  17015172671751.04.%8080456
4 RINC  52552550.96.%183717
5 MEDCLIN  49985106230.46.%2640117
6 GRANPRADE  3503830.1483596
7 CML  35283682-47-1.31.%1062857

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 WITSGOLD  15001500-300-16.67.%1027
2 PRESCIENT  120120-6-4.76.%325868
3 ARCMITTAL  29802960-135-4.33.%286849
4 ANGLOPLAT  3775037250-556-1.45.%269247
5 AVENG  28002765-23-0.81.%1598884
6 GOLDONE  310287103.33.%241000

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Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4033,178.00-65.00-0.20%
Industrial44,908.00141.000.32%
Mid Cap52,266.00-42.00-0.08%
Small Cap38,470.00-75.00-0.20%
Resource 2049,014.00-591.00-1.19%
Industrial 2538,708.00174.000.45%
Financial 1510,290.00.000.01%
Financial & Ind. 3041,846.00147.000.35%
All Share37,394.00-68.00-0.18%
Oil & Gas 27,696.00-37.00-0.13%
Mining 31,494.00-432.00-1.35%
Gold Mining2,417.00-36.00-1.50%
Platinum Mining49.001.002.75%
GENERAL MINING8,185.00-132.00-1.59%
Oil & Gas Producers 14,892.00-19.00-0.13%
Basic Materials 26,999.00-387.00-1.41%
Chemicals 15,517.00-173.00-1.10%
Forestry & Paper 16,293.00-318.00-1.92%
Industrial Metals 26,425.00-646.00-2.39%
Industrials 35,517.00-58.00-0.16%
General Industrials 102.001.001.12%
Consumer Goods 38,912.00182.000.47%
Automobiles & Parts 6,926.00-9.00-0.13%
Household Goods192.00-1-0.73%
Health Care 52,995.00410.000.78%
Beverages 128.002.001.76%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 65,672.00318.000.49%
Personal Goods 609.00.000.04%
Consumer Services 81,971.00204.000.25%
General Retailers 68,325.00433.000.64%
Travel & Leisure 4,640.00-23.00-0.50%
Media 120.00.000.70%
Support Services 2,367.00-26.00-1.11%
Telecommunications 81,827.00901.001.11%
Financials 27,662.0019.000.07%
Banks 49,499.00-254.00-0.51%
Non-life Insurance 45,914.00-663.00-1.42%
Life Insurance 23,686.00214.000.92%
General Financial 2,513.00-12.00-0.49%
Technology 33,515.00-130.00-0.39%
SHARIAH TOP40 3,267.00-20-0.63%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,369.00-21-0.63%
COAL MINING21,309.00-1005-4.51%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 5,662.0060.11%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,067.00565.54%
SA LISTED PROPERTY 475.000.84%
CAPPED PROPERTY 387.000.62%
RESOURCE 27,031.00-321-1.18%
DIVIDEND PLUS204.0000.18%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 407,561.00-22-0.29%
Capped Top 4017,510.00-34-0.20%
Capped All Share18,917.00-33-0.18%
JSE TABACO 5,727.0080.16%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
CMLCORONATION FUND MANAGERS ...BUY09/11/2012
TRUTRUWORTHS INTERNATIONAL L...SELL08/11/2012
MDCMEDICLINIC INTERNATIONALHOLD08/11/2012
SHPSHOPRITE HOLDINGS LIMITEDSELL07/11/2012
PIKPICK N PAY STORES LIMITEDHOLD06/11/2012
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
14/11/2012DIPULA AAugust 2012 (Final)
14/11/2012DIPULA BAugust 2012 (Final)
14/11/2012EASTPLATSSeptember 2012 (Q)
14/11/2012MRPRICESeptember 2012 (Interim)
14/11/2012MRPROBSeptember 2012 (Interim)
Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
INVICTA12/11/201230/11/201210/12/2012R 0.8900
LEWIS12/11/201211/01/201321/01/2013R 2.1200
ASTRAL12/11/201211/01/201321/01/2013R 3.3600
MIXTEL12/11/201230/11/201210/12/2012R 0.0400
VODACOM12/11/201223/11/201203/12/2012R 3.5500
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
REMGRO20/09/201209/11/201219/11/2012R 1.8800
OCTODEC22/10/201209/11/201219/11/2012R 0.6610
PREMIUM22/10/201209/11/201219/11/2012R 0.6000
REBOSIS25/10/201209/11/201219/11/2012R 0.4250
PINNACLE06/09/201209/11/201219/11/2012R 0.3500
Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
EMIEmira Property Fund13/11/2012Confirmed
EQSBEqstra Holdings Ltd.13/11/2012Confirmed
EQSAEqstra Holdings Ltd.13/11/2012Confirmed
EQSEqstra Holdings Ltd.13/11/2012Confirmed
GRTGrowthpoint Properties Ltd.13/11/2012Confirmed
Stock Exchange News Service
DateTimeHeadline
13/11/201217:48SOUTHERN ELECTRICITY COMPANY LTD - Record Date For Annual General Meeting
13/11/201217:30PROTECH KHUTHELE HOLDINGS LIMITED - Suspension of Group Financial Director
13/11/201217:20FRICAN RESOURCES PLC - Exercise of options
13/11/201217:10JSE LIMITED - Index Change Advice - 20121116 Sea Kay Holdings Deletion
13/11/201216:45CURRO HOLDINGS LIMITED - Renewal of cautionary announcement
13/11/201216:18GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES LIMITED - Results of AGM
13/11/201216:16BHP BILLITON PLC - Sale of Diamonds Business
13/11/201216:08 PROPERTY FUND - Report On Proceedings At Annual General Meeting
13/11/201216:00MUSTEK LIMITED - No change statement and notice of AGM
13/11/201214:50THE STANDARD BANK OF SA LTD - Interest Rate Announcement - CLN52/CLN54
13/11/201214:39THE STANDARD BANK OF SA LTD - Interest Rate Announcement - CLN127/CLN265/CLN186
13/11/201214:15ARGENT INDUSTRIAL LIMITED - Change to Board of Directors
13/11/201213:30LITHA HEALTHCARE GROUP LIMITED - Unaudited Condensed Consolidated Quarterly Resu...
13/11/201213:30FAIRVEST PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED - Closing and results of vendor consideration...
13/11/201212:57INDWA INVESTMENTS LIMITED - Listing of Tap Issues - IND307 and IND308
13/11/201212:49AMALGAMATED ELECTRONIC CORP LTD - Inerim results for 6 month period ending Septe...
13/11/201212:45O RESOURCES LIMITED - Trading of Exxaro ordinary shares on behalf of the Exxaro ...
13/11/201212:30INDWA INVESTMENTS LIMITED - Interest Rate Reset - INF002
13/11/201212:15IMPERIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED - Trading in securities by company secretary of Imperi...
13/11/201212:08METMAR LIMITED - Dealing in securities by a director
13/11/201212:00SYNTHESIS FUNDING LIMITED - SYN956 Synthesis Funding Limited - New Financial In...
13/11/201211:50BSI STEEL LIMITED - Dealing in securities by a Director
13/11/201211:30GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES LIMITED - GRT02 - Interest Rate Reset
13/11/201211:15DISTELL GROUP LIMITED - Dealings In Securities By Company Secretary
13/11/201210:34FINBOND GROUP LIMITED - Director's share dealings
13/11/201210:17AFGRI LIMITED - Resignation of a Director
13/11/201210:15RESILIENT PROPERTY INCOME FUND LTD - New Instrument Listing - RES15
13/11/201210:12SYNERGY INCOME FUND LIMITED - Dealing in securities by a director of Synergy
13/11/201210:06MONEYWEB HOLDINGS LIMITED - Resignation of Director
13/11/201209:48DIPULA INCOME FUND LTD - Results of the private placement
13/11/201209:25FIRSTRAND BANK LIMITED - Interest Rate Reset - FRS72
13/11/201209:20TOYOTA FIN SERVICES (SA) PTY LTD - Interest Rate Reset - TFS73
13/11/201209:12KUMBA IRON ORE LIMITED - Trading Statement For The Twelve Months Ending 31 Decem...
13/11/201209:08ST BUSINESS GROUP LIMITED - The disposal by Morvest, through its wholly owned su...
13/11/201209:00NEW GOLD ISSUER LIMITED - GLD - Listing of additional NewGold debentures
13/11/201209:00GE MAIN REEF LIMITED - Report for the quarter ended 30 September 2012 (first qua...
13/11/201209:00N PLC - Lonmin Urges Shareholders to Vote in Favour of the Rights Issue
13/11/201209:00LONRHO PLC - Interim Management Statement
13/11/201209:00IMITED - Presentation of 2012 Financial Results
13/11/201209:00ANGLO AMERICAN PLC - Anglo American update on Minas-Rio iron ore project
13/11/201208:41RESOURCE GENERATION LIMITED - Boikarabelo update: port access and project financ...
13/11/201208:38FIRESTONE ENERGY LIMITED - Update on Financial Restructure
13/11/201208:00MEDICLINIC INTERNATIONAL LIMITED - Dealings in securities by a director of a maj...
13/11/201208:00T INVESTMENTS S.C.A - Consolidated Unaudited Financial Results For The Six-Month...
13/11/201207:05CORONATION FUND MANAGERS LIMITED - Reviewed preliminary financial results for th...
13/11/201207:05IMITED - Audited Preliminary Results for the year ended 30 September 2012
13/11/201207:05STEFANUTTI STOCKS HOLDINGS LTD - Reviewed condensed consolidated interim results...
13/11/201207:05BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC - Transaction in own shares

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