Tuesday, 22 March 2011 - 20:00
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The Sharenet Daily includes helpful charts that give a graphical impression of events, and our news content is sourced from a number of contributors, including Reuters. In addition, Sharenet's popular price information is available in our Spot Price format which provides a snapshot of the JSE and world indices, currencies and commodities.
All the JSE trading statistics; major movers; latest dividends; upcoming AGM dates and more are provided to insure that you keep abreast of market developments. The Sharenet Daily is published at 8pm each day on the website and also distributed via email for your convenience. As always, we welcome your comments, feedback and suggestions at support@sharenet.co.za
Charts
Soe thoughts on gold Whenever we run presentations and have a time for questions, invariably there is one on the outlook for gold. While gold ownership in SA has typically not been an attractive investment, there remains a strong emotional attachment to this asset class.
But lets examine the case for this metal.
Gold has been in a steady upward price pattern for the last 12 years. After falling to a low of around $250/oz in mid 1999, the price of this yellow metal has been steadily increasing.
Over the past 11 years, in US dollar terms, the price has compounded up at 15,3% per annum. Because gold pays no interest or dividends, this is the total return for an investor holding this asset. This return has actually been very good compared to say global equities, which gave investors a dollar return of 4,8% for the last 10 years.
Investors into local shares achieved a dollar return of approximately 18% over the last 10 years – so this puts some perspective on gold’s 11 year run.
US investment bank, Goldman Sachs has a current forecast for gold bullion at $1480/oz. in 3 months, a 6 month forecast of $1565 and 12 months out at $1690/oz.
One main reason for them remaining upbeat on the price is the fact that the Federal Reserve continues to keep the interest rate below the rate of inflation – i.e. running negative rates of interest. This tends to be dollar negative and asset price positive.
Gold producer, AngloGold reported to Reuters that they are looking for a price of $1600/oz. towards the end of 2012.
Investors that are bullish on the price have the option of buying either the metal itself, or investing into a mining producer. Over the years, except for certain spikes, mining companies have generally not been fantastic investments. In general their costs have continued to rise and given the fact that they mine a wasting asset, a large component of their costs is on exploration and new acquisition. This in order to replenish a wasting asset.
Today Goldfields announced a voluntary purchase offer in Lima, Peru to buy shares that it does not already own. If the offer is taken up in full the cost will be $420 million.
AngloGold reported that their all in cost of producing an ounce of gold is already higher than $1000/oz. and this is likely to increase by more than $100/oz. year in year.
At these and higher gold prices, gold producers can be profitable and should the price continue to rise and companies start to demonstrate a willingness to pay out higher dividends, then these businesses can be attractive investments. At current price multiples, investors are already pricing in high expectations.
Our view is that while the dollar price of bullion will remain volatile, we have not yet seen the top. We continue to hold a small portion within the Seed Flexible Fund, but not as yet any gold producer.
Kind regards
Ian de Lange
info@seedinvestments.co.za
www.seedinvestments.co.za
021 9144 966
Tue, 22 Mar 2011
Top News
Selling gold output forward will not guarantee greater profitability for a mining company, but this does not mean the now-unfashionable practice of hedging won't make a comeback, says South Africa's Gold Fields. Full story
South Africa's antitrust watchdog postponed hearings into Wal-Mart's $2.3 billion bid for a controlling stake in domestic retailer Massmart after the government and unions asked for more time to submit additional information. Full story |
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Markets took a breather on
Tuesday after days of volatility, as uncertainty over the
fighting in Libya kept both stocks and U.S. government debt in
a narrow range Full storyMuammar Gaddafi's forces attacked two west Libyan towns, killing dozens while rebels were pinned down in the east and NATO tried to resolve a heated row over who should lead the Western air campaign. Full storyYemen's president said on Tuesday his country would descend into civil war if he were forced to quit and Washington voiced concern about instability in the Arabian state that has become an al Qaeda stronghold. Full story |
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Markets | U.S. stocks edged lower on
Tuesday following three days of gains, but the recent rally has
investors feeling less edgy about crises in. . . Full story | | Gold was little
changed on Tuesday as interest-rate hike worries prompted the
market to take a breather, but Western air strikes on Libya. . . Full story | | Britain's top share index fell
on Tuesday, snapping a three-session rally, as further
airstrikes against Libya and disruption caused by the earthquake
in Japan. . . Full story | | U.S. stocks edged lower on
Tuesday following three days of gains, but further losses may
be limited as investors have adapted to a. . . Full story |
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| European shares were higher at
midday on Tuesday in a continuation of a rebound from last
week's hefty falls, with gains limited by. . . Full story | | Australian stocks gave up morning gains to
end steady on Tuesday, as materials stocks weakened and weighed on the broader
market as worries. . . Full story | | Japan's Nikkei average is set on
Tuesday to recoup some of last week's 10 percent loss after
reports of progress to contain radiation. . . Full story | | Global stocks rose on Monday
as risk appetite returned after Japan had some success
controlling a crippled nuclear plant, while the yen slipped. . . Full story |
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SA Business | South Africa's bonds rallied on Tuesday and the rand touched a week-high against the dollar, both partly supported by data showing. . . Full story | | Africa's biggest brewer SABMiller Plc underlined its confidence in the continent on Tuesday by raising its revenue and margin targets after. . . Full story | | The number of people employed in South Africa's non-agricultural sectors increased by 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared. . . Full story | | The rand firmed to a week-high against the dollar on Tuesday and South African government bonds nudged higher as the global. . . Full story |
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| Selling gold output forward
will not guarantee greater profitability for a mining company,
but this does not mean the now-unfashionable practice of hedging
won't. . . Full story | | Industrial giant Renova, controlled by Russian tycoon Viktor Vekselberg, said on Tuesday its joint venture in South Africa had launched a. . . Full story | | South Africa should not replicate Australia's controversial resource tax, which is likely to hurt investment and push capital elsewhere, the head. . . Full story | | AngloGold Ashanti's top executive said on Tuesday the company hoped to keep its global cost increases to half the industry average. . . Full story |
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| AngloGold Ashanti's top
executive said on Tuesday the company hoped to keep its global
cost increases to half the industry average but the situation in
South Africa was "a lot tougher.". . . Full story | | South African government bonds edged higher and the rand held earlier gains against the dollar on Tuesday after Reserve Bank data showed the current account deficit narrowed sharply in the fourth. . . Full story | | South Africa's current account gap narrowed to a seven-year-low in the fourth quarter of 2010, while expenditure slowed, partly due to a moderation in household spending, the Reserve Bank said on. . . Full story |
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Company News | Shareholders were advised that the company expected to report basic earnings per share attributable to ordinary shareholders for the twelve months. . . Full story | | Shareholders are referred to the trading statement released on SENS today, 22 March 2011. The comparative diluted earnings per share ("EPS"). . . Full story | | Shareholders are advised that the group expects diluted earnings per share ("EPS") and diluted headline EPS for the period to be. . . Full story | | Textainer Group Holdings Ltd, in which Trencor has a 61.2% interest, has filed its Form 20-F (annual report for the year. . . Full story |
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| According to Business Report, Ciplamed has lined up a new oncology division expansion outside the country and two new ventures as. . . Full story | | Business Day reported that Pick n Pay has raised R500 million to fund expansion as it looks to gain traction over. . . Full story | | Business Day reported that Pick n Pay has raised R500 million to fund expansion as it looks to gain traction over. . . Full story | | South African cement sales continue to decline. Industry figures released for the five months from October 2010 to February 2011 show. . . Full story |
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Company Results | Revenue grew to R1.2 billion (R1 billion) and gross profit rose to R278.6 million (R247.2 million). However, earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell marginally to R36 million (R36.4 million), while operating profit also fell to R28.8 million (R29.6 million). Net profit attributable to ordinary equity holders jumped to R15.3 million (R11.4 million). Furthermore, headline earnings per share increased slightly to 6.7cps (6.4cps).
Dividend
No div. . . Full story |
World Markets
Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | JSE Overall | 17:00 | 30868.31 | 191.23 | 0.62% | JSE Top 40 | 17:00 | 27790.80 | 177.89 | 0.64% | JSE Gold | 17:00 | 2574.37 | -9.21 | -0.36% | JSE Financial | 17:00 | 20679.95 | 184.83 | 0.90% | JSE Industrial | 17:00 | 30648.54 | 426.27 | 1.41% | JSE Indust 25 | 17:00 | 25646.78 | 419.67 | 1.66% | JSE Resource | 17:00 | 55008.82 | -192.62 | -0.35% | DJ Futures | 19:50 | 11950.00 | -6.00 | -0.05% | DJ Ind | 18:45 | 12021.92 | -14.61 | -0.12% | SP 500 | 20:00 | 1295.61 | -2.77 | -0.21% | Nasdaq | 20:00 | 2685.47 | -6.62 | -0.25% | FTSE 100 | 18:35 | 5762.71 | -23.38 | -0.40% | DAX | 19:00 | 6780.97 | -35.15 | -0.52% | CAC40 | 18:50 | 3892.71 | 82.49 | 2.16% | Nikkei | 08:26 | 9608.32 | 401.57 | 4.36% | Shanghai | 09:22 | 2919.17 | 9.77 | 0.34% | Hang-Seng | 10:26 | 22857.90 | 172.68 | 0.76% | All Ords | 07:37 | 4737.70 | 3.60 | 0.08% | NZSE 50 | 06:26 | 3365.23 | 16.86 | 0.50% |
| | Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | Gold | 19:57 | 1426.21 | -.55 | -0.04% | Gold/Rand | 20:00 | 9790.93 | -115.60 | -1.17% | Gold/R kg | 20:00 | 314778 | -4295 | -1.35% | Silver | 19:58 | 36.2400 | .1650 | 0.46% | Platinum | 19:58 | 1735.50 | -1.00 | -0.06% | Palladium | 19:57 | 737.00 | -7.50 | -1.01% | R157 | 15:06 | 7.83 | -.05 | -0.63% | R204 | 15:06 | 8.63 | -.05 | -0.58% | Brent Crude | 19:46 | 115.05 | 1.48 | 1.30% | Rand / Dollar | 19:58 | 6.8650 | -0.0775 | -1.12% | Rand / Pound | 19:55 | 11.2512 | -0.0447 | -0.40% | Rand / Euro | 19:55 | 9.7919 | -0.0884 | -0.89% | Rand / NZD | 19:58 | 5.0893 | -0.0166 | -0.33% | Rand / AUD | 19:55 | 6.9730 | -0.0240 | -0.34% | Yen / Dollar | 19:56 | 80.9500 | -0.2000 | -0.25% | Euro / Dollar | 19:58 | 0.7034 | 0.7034 | 0.00% | Dollar / Euro | 19:58 | 1.4216 | -0.0001 | -0.01% | Pound / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.6103 | -0.0029 | -0.47% |
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The JSE Today
Trading Statistics
Date | Adv. | Decl. | Unch. | Actives | Volume | Value | Trades | Orders |
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22/03/2011 | 190 | 148 | 77 | 415 | 272,539,301 | R13,852,712,293 | 135637 | 2257974 | 18/03/2011 | 149 | 181 | 78 | 408 | 305,509,186 | R13,710,921,213 | 100892 | 2437383 | 17/03/2011 | 174 | 157 | 73 | 404 | 319,918,627 | R16,816,586,065 | 161034 | 2416153 | 16/03/2011 | 240 | 96 | 73 | 409 | 343,371,371 | R15,949,566,078 | 144797 | 2358292 | 15/03/2011 | 66 | 322 | 50 | 438 | 351,878,636 | R15,762,386,205 | 145313 | 2606748 |
Index Summary Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Top 40 | 27,790.80 | 177.89 | 0.64% | Industrial | 30,648.54 | 426.27 | 1.41% | Mid Cap | 39,690.46 | 239.96 | 0.61% | Small Cap | 30,825.94 | -27.58 | -0.09% | Resource 20 | 55,008.82 | -192.62 | -0.35% | Industrial 25 | 25,646.78 | 419.67 | 1.66% | Financial 15 | 7,842.02 | 72.21 | 0.93% | Financial & Ind. 30 | 28,866.33 | 435.67 | 1.53% | All Share | 30,868.31 | 191.23 | 0.62% | Oil & Gas | 28,177.76 | 454.16 | 1.64% | Mining | 35,868.73 | -205.07 | -0.57% | Gold Mining | 2,574.37 | -9.21 | -0.36% | Platinum Mining | 73.65 | 1.57 | 2.18% | Oil & Gas Producers | 15,150.66 | 244.19 | 1.64% | Basic Materials | 30,223.37 | -131.20 | -0.43% | Chemicals | 13,033.03 | -18.79 | -0.14% | Forestry & Paper | 13,925.76 | 155.77 | 1.13% | Industrial Metals | 28,007.12 | 367.23 | 1.33% | Industrials | 26,429.09 | 250.59 | 0.96% | General Industrials | 72,444.63 | 1068.05 | 1.50% | Consumer Goods | 25,222.50 | 458.04 | 1.85% | Automobiles & Parts | 3,032.11 | 20.38 | 0.68% | Household Goods | 152.84 | 4 | 2.56% | Health Care | 30,561.94 | -131.03 | -0.43% | Beverages | 77,146.48 | 290.46 | 0.38% | Food Producers | 45,494.09 | 21.90 | 0.05% |
| | Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Personal Goods | 394.81 | 16.78 | 4.44% | Consumer Services | 50,572.42 | 1097.83 | 2.22% | General Retailers | 38,070.64 | 128.58 | 0.34% | Travel & Leisure | 3,582.17 | 12.56 | 0.35% | Media | 81,471.31 | 3958.55 | 5.11% | Support Services | 2,407.65 | 8.82 | 0.37% | Telecommunications | 62,796.82 | 391.64 | 0.63% | Financials | 20,679.95 | 184.83 | 0.90% | Banks | 38,663.24 | 384.17 | 1.00% | Non-life Insurance | 29,731.81 | -264.32 | -0.88% | Life Insurance | 15,643.33 | 155.92 | 1.01% | General Financial | 2,177.11 | 8.89 | 0.41% | Technology | 20,231.82 | -403.06 | -1.95% | SHARIAH TOP40 | 3,139.97 | -1 | -0.04% | FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL | 3,190.74 | -0 | -0.00% | COAL MINING | 21,279.15 | 383 | 1.83% | FTSE JSE Fledgling | 4,510.72 | 4 | 0.09% | FTSE/JSE Alt X | 1,043.89 | 7 | 0.67% | SA LISTED PROPERTY | 356.12 | | 1.11% | CAPPED PROPERTY | 297.37 | | 0.89% | RESOURCE | 30,289.83 | -84 | -0.28% | DIVIDEND PLUS | 160.16 | 2 | 0.97% | FTSE/JSE RAFI 40 | 6,479.60 | 49 | 0.77% | Capped Top 40 | 14,463.02 | 128 | 0.89% | Capped All Share | 15,530.30 | 116 | 0.75% |
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Latest Consensus Changes** Code | Company Name | Status | Updated | TBS | TIGER BRANDS LTD | BUY | 16 Mar | SUI | SUN INTERNATIONAL LTD | BUY | 16 Mar | RMH | RMB HOLDINGS LIMITED | BUY | 16 Mar | NED | NEDBANK GROUP LTD | HOLD | 15 Mar | PAP | PANGBOURNE PROPERTIES LIM... | HOLD | 15 Mar |
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Results Expected** Expected | Company Name | Fin. Date | 23 Mar 2011 | ADVTECH | December 2010 (Final) | 23 Mar 2011 | GB LD | December 2010 (Final) | 23 Mar 2011 | GB LD OPT | December 2010 (Final) | 23 Mar 2011 | GIJIMA | December 2010 (Interim) | 23 Mar 2011 | JASCO | December 2010 (Interim) |
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Recent Dividends** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | AMAPS | 11-03-04 | 11-03-25 | 11-04-01 | R 0.0400 | ASTRAPAKP | 11-03-04 | 11-03-25 | 11-04-04 | R 3.4269 | STANBANK | 11-03-03 | 11-04-01 | 11-04-11 | R 2.4500 | STANBANK6.5 | 11-03-03 | 11-03-25 | 11-04-04 | R 0.0325 | STANBANK-P | 11-03-03 | 11-03-25 | 11-04-04 | R 3.3790 |
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Ex Div** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | SASFIN-P | 11-03-02 | 11-03-17 | 11-03-28 | R 3.6205 | IMPERIALP | 11-02-23 | 11-03-17 | 11-03-28 | R 3.6123 | CAPITEC-P | 11-02-28 | 11-03-17 | 11-03-28 | R 3.4377 | PSGFIN PREF | 11-03-01 | 11-03-17 | 11-03-28 | R 3.4377 | SANTAM | 11-03-01 | 11-03-17 | 11-03-28 | R 3.2500 |
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Upcoming AGMs** Code | Company Name | Date | Status | HDC | Hudaco Industries Ltd | 24/03/2011 | Confirmed | AMSP | Anglo Platinum Ltd | 28/03/2011 | Confirmed | AMS | Anglo Platinum Ltd | 28/03/2011 | Confirmed | ORE | Orion Real Estate Ltd | 29/03/2011 | Confirmed |
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