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 The Sharenet Daily 
Tuesday, 20 January 2015 - 20:00
Top News
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)

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Seed Weekly - Swiss Franc Volatility ? A Precursor for 2015?

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Seed Weekly - Swiss Franc Volatility – A Precursor for 2015?

Volatility is the up and down movement of the price of an asset, usually a stock price, but it also extends to changes in the exchange rate of one currency against another.

Typically the volatility of developed-world currencies has been reasonably low. However, this is not necessarily the case for emerging markets, with South African investors and businessmen having first-hand experience of just how volatile the Rand’s rate of exchange with global currencies can be. For example, in 2001 the rand opened at around R7.65/USD, but depreciated sharply to end that year at over R12/USD.

Other currencies that have experienced high levels of volatility include:
• In December 1994 increased US interest rates help spark the Mexican Peso to a loss of over 50% against the USD.
• The Thailand central bank devalued its currency and this saw the Thai Baht fell 48% against the USD in 1997.
• Argentina tried to maintain a one to one peg of its peso to the USD, but was forced to default on US denominated debt and in June 2002 the peso fell 74% against the USD.
• In December 2014 the Russian Ruble fell 34% against the USD as the Russian economy plunged towards recession on the back of the massive decline in oil prices and hence lower exports.

Last week one of the world’s strongest currencies, the Swiss franc had a taste of the type of volatility normally found only in emerging market currencies – but to the upside. In one day the Swiss franc appreciated by 17% against the euro – one of the biggest movements ever in the currency markets.

The Swiss central bank (the Swiss National Bank or SNB), in an attempt to curtail currency strength, had over the last 3 years tried to maintain the franc pegged to the euro at 1.2 Swiss francs. Because 70% of the Swiss economy is export driven and roughly half of this is to the Eurozone, a strong franc negatively impacts this exporting economy. At the same time the Swiss economy has been in deflation since 2012.

The SNB kept the Swiss franc from firming against the euro by using an unlimited quantity of Swiss francs to buy euros from the banking system. In order to buy euros it had to print Swiss francs and the SNB expanded its balance sheet from around CHF 75bn to CHF 380bn at the end of November2014 as it bought up euros.

As the chart below reflects, it had been successful in that the exchange rate was maintained at close to 1.2 CHF to the euro, but it has come at a huge cost in terms of the rapid snap back of the currency that was being artificially restrained.

With the European Central Bank about to announce a major stimulus package in the form of euro printing this week, the SNB acted to stop supporting the peg. This immediately saw the Swiss currency appreciate from 1.2 to close to parity to the euro. Because of the negative impact on the Swiss economy, the Swiss market immediately fell 10%. Even negative yields on 10 year government bonds have not been low enough to dissuade money flows to the Swiss franc.

The extent of a move such as this is a timely reminder that where there is low volatility, even over a 3 year period, one cannot necessarily bank on this continuing especially where there is an “artificial” buyer (or seller) of last resort in the form of a central bank. The rapid appreciation of this currency is a timely reminder that investors will need to be vigilant in the year ahead and not take any price quoted yesterday as a reasonable anchor for future prices.


Ian de Lange

021 914 4966

Tue, 20 Jan 2015
Top News
South Africa's rand was mostly flat against the dollar on Tuesday, clawing back most of its earlier losses, although it is likely to stay under pressure in a market now seeing some chance of an interest rate cut this month.  Full story

Local markets Tuesday the JSE All Share index gained 0.26%, led by gold mining which gained 2.23%. Resources advanced  1.10%.  Full story
The militant group Islamic State released an online video on Tuesday purporting to show two Japanese captives and threatening to kill them unless it received $200 million in ransom.  Full story
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday condemned as "unacceptable" the threat to the lives of two Japanese purportedly taken captive by Islamic State militants, and said the international community should not give in to terrorism.  Full story
Militia fighters bombarded the private residence of Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi on Tuesday in an effort to overthrow the government, the country's information minister said.  Full story
European and Asian equities were mostly higher on Tuesday and the dollar climbed 1 percent against the Japanese yen as diminishing global growth. . .  Full story
Gold rose more than 1 percent on Tuesday to a 4-1/2 month high as uncertainty over the extent of a stimulus programme the. . .  Full story
Hong Kong shares rose on Tuesday after mainland indexes rebounded on comments by China's securities regulator that it was not trying to suppress. . .  Full story
China stocks rebounded on Tuesday in a day of volatile trading after the Chinese regulator denied it had intentionally sought to suppress the. . .  Full story

Japan's Nikkei stock average climbed 2.1 percent on Tuesday, posting its biggest one-day gain in a month, as markets took comfort from China. . .  Full story
Australia's sharemarket ended flat on Tuesday with gains in the big four banks offset by losses in energy stocks as weak oil prices. . .  Full story
Australian shares are set to open lower on Tuesday before China releases data that is expected to show the world's second-largest economy grew. . .  Full story
Gold eased from four-month highs on Monday as investors cashed in some of last week's hefty gains, though prices were still supported by. . .  Full story
SA Business
Statistics South Africa released its monthly mining production data for November on Tuesday. Below is the breakdown of the main minerals.. . .  Full story
Striking South African miners at Northam Platinum will hold another mass meeting on Tuesday to decide whether to continue a week-long wildcat stoppage, the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) said.. . .  Full story

Striking South African miners at Northam Platinum's biggest mine agreed to return to work, ending a week-long work stoppage, the National Union of Mineworkers said on Tuesday.. . .  Full story
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday issued the following economic growth forecasts as part its World Economic Outlook. Forecasts are annual inflation-adjusted percentage changes. Note: Columns with differences from October's WEO update may not match January forecasts due to rounding.. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0049124.77127.830.26%
JSE Top 4017:0043074.8585.310.20%
JSE Gold17:001533.6933.502.23%
JSE Financial17:0040309.32143.860.36%
JSE Industrial17:0069637.23-51.34-0.07%
JSE Indust 2517:0061510.47-82.99-0.13%
JSE Resource17:0040903.17446.721.10%
DJ Futures19:5217312.00-77.00-0.44%
DJ Ind19:5817416.14-95.43-0.54%
SP 50019:582012.37-7.05-0.35%
FTSE 10017:456602.0116.480.25%
All Ords07:405286.80-2.20-0.04%
NZSE 5006:485633.22-4.92-0.09%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold $19:591293.7317.261.35%
Gold R19:5915008.08170.891.15%
Gold R/kg19:5848262863141.33%
Silver $19:5917.8820.19701.11%
Platinum $19:581282.4018.701.48%
Palladium $19:59776.8022.803.02%
Brent Crude19:4848.42-.42-0.86%
Rand / Dollar19:5911.6009-0.0253-0.22%
Rand / Pound19:5517.54450.00300.02%
Rand / Euro19:5513.3939-0.1024-0.76%
Rand / NZD19:598.9176-0.1170-1.30%
Rand / AUD19:559.4794-0.0650-0.68%
Yen / Dollar19:59118.69601.05000.89%
Euro / Dollar19:590.86620.00430.50%
Dollar / Euro19:591.1545-0.0055-0.48%
Pound / Dollar19:550.6596-0.0022-0.33%

Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today

Trading Statistics
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 EFFICIENT  5008520.48.%19500
2 INDEQTY  6509517.12.%28
3 SEKUNJALO  1331916.67.%179906
4 DRDGOLD  3174114.86.%2057886
5 CENRAND  320206.67.%260
6 MIXTEL  294145.00.%4590
7 ASCEN_A  550234.36.%215094
8 ATLATSA  240104.35.%14306
9 HOSP-B  22894.11.%44000
10 ANGGOLD  134405224.04.%2742120
11 SPURCORP  34401303.93.%26631
12 EXXARO  106713993.88.%480257
13 CSG  19273.78.%81650
14 ANGLOPLAT  3739913623.78.%385960
15 ARCMITTAL  2233783.62.%312581
16 AVENG  1706583.52.%986692
17 HOSP-A  1614533.40.%281439
18 HARMONY  35061143.36.%2365402
19 INVICTA  108013463.31.%20353
20 GLENCORE  45231433.26.%4668645

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 DENEB  181-19-9.50.%215619
2 SYNERGY-A  1075-102-8.67.%6000
3 MARSHALL  1210-90-6.92.%200501
4 GIJIMA  190-10-5.00.%189
5 BELL  950-50-5.00.%800
6 MONTAUK  300-15-4.76.%709252
7 PRESCIENT  101-5-4.72.%21620
8 PETMIN  135-5-3.57.%129200
9 DIAMONDCP  140-5-3.45.%16777
10 ASTRAPAK  550-19-3.34.%28700
11 BOWCALF  775-25-3.13.%25540
12 NIVEUS  3145-100-3.08.%65638
13 SASOL  38422-1178-2.97.%1935661
14 ILLOVO  2324-66-2.76.%67945
15 MMG  1882-47-2.44.%103438
16 QUANTUMF  381-9-2.31.%211434
17 TOWER  930-20-2.11.%68016
18 SIRIUS  540-11-2.00.%588444
19 ADCORP  3212-63-1.92.%51627
20 BARWORLD  8538-167-1.92.%829084

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 INDEQTY  6506509517.12.%28
2 SPURCORP  344034751303.93.%26631
3 SIBANYE  32243235922.94.%2668882
4 PNR-FOODS  15797159943542.29.%267475
5 ITLTILE  10351040151.47.%14730
6 MASSMART  16635167641851.12.%366510
7 CAPPROP  14141422151.07.%1599299
8 SPAR  17208173741290.76.%291717
9 SA-CORP  50050930.60.%6053419
10 MEDCLIN  1135011500500.44.%696064
11 GROWPNT  2818282890.32.%2014402
12 ACUCAP  52905300150.28.%244706
13 DIPULA-A  1107111010.09.%5600
14 VUKILE  187519000.2314337
15 DISCOVERY  1156711900-206-1.75.%814265

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 SIRIUS  540535-11-2.00.%588444
2 BARWORLD  85388442-167-1.92.%829084
3 STENPROP  20602060-39-1.86.%77000
4 CAT  14951380453.10.%46392

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Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4043,074.8585.310.20%
Mid Cap71,686.81409.840.57%
Small Cap58,478.82308.390.53%
Resource 2040,903.17446.721.10%
Industrial 2561,510.47-82.99-0.13%
Financial 1515,304.1758.680.38%
Financial & Ind. 3065,513.94-26.99-0.04%
All Share49,124.77127.830.26%
Oil & Gas 29,119.50-851.04-2.84%
Mining 25,325.93502.212.02%
Gold Mining1,533.6933.502.23%
Platinum Mining35.66.712.03%
GENERAL MINING7,022.02134.381.95%
Oil & Gas Producers 15,657.02-457.59-2.84%
Basic Materials 23,042.37418.351.85%
Chemicals 21,959.33-158.32-0.72%
Forestry & Paper 33,186.25299.680.91%
Industrial Metals 12,903.88231.241.82%
Industrials 45,927.00137.720.30%
General Industrials
Consumer Goods 61,302.60-135.19-0.22%
Automobiles & Parts 7,325.5215.850.22%
Household Goods408.5440.90%
Health Care 10,641.62-18.28-0.17%
Beverages 200.46-3.04-1.49%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 9,522.5989.350.95%
Personal Goods 978.193.700.38%
Consumer Services 14,681.1537.500.26%
General Retailers 76,349.57818.141.08%
Travel & Leisure 6,164.00-26.35-0.43%
Media 344.97.140.04%
Support Services 2,820.57-13.97-0.49%
Telecommunications 9,961.31-93.61-0.93%
Financials 40,309.32143.860.36%
Banks 71,141.96602.040.85%
Non-life Insurance 55,242.8217.870.03%
Life Insurance 36,430.01-152.03-0.42%
General Financial 3,828.033.950.10%
Technology 50,312.84332.940.67%
SHARIAH TOP40 3,317.86140.42%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,636.38170.46%
COAL MINING13,503.935183.99%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 6,703.36120.17%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,447.09-9-0.59%
RESOURCE 22,662.232631.17%
DIVIDEND PLUS229.9410.42%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 409,314.99370.40%
Capped Top 4023,001.41510.22%
Capped All Share24,916.98650.26%
JSE TABACO 8,146.64360.44%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
21/01/2015LITHASeptember 2014 (Q)
21/01/2015LITHAPSeptember 2014 (Q)
27/01/2015BK ONEAugust 2014 (Interim)
27/01/2015BK PREFSAugust 2014 (Interim)
27/01/2015MASDecember 2014 (Interim)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
MARSHALL09/01/1523/01/1506/02/15USD 0.0180
INVICTA09/01/1523/01/1502/02/15ZAR 20.2433
GRANPRADE05/01/1523/01/1502/02/15ZAR 0.2000
ARGENT04/12/1420/03/1530/03/15ZAR 0.0800
NETCARE24/11/1423/01/1502/02/15ZAR 0.4800
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
AEG CONV05/01/1516/01/1526/01/15ZAR 367.4700
ILRPREF131/12/1416/01/1526/01/15ZAR 13.0346
ASTRAL17/11/1416/01/1526/01/15ZAR 2.4000
LEWIS10/11/1416/01/1526/01/15ZAR 2.1500
BARWORLD17/11/1416/01/1526/01/15ZAR 2.1400

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
ACTAfroCentric Investment Corporation Ltd.21/01/2015Confirmed
ACTPAfroCentric Investment Corporation Ltd.21/01/2015Confirmed
TMTTrematon Capital Investments Ltd.21/01/2015Confirmed
IDQIndequity Group Ltd.21/01/2015Confirmed
IDQPIndequity Group Ltd.21/01/2015Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
20/01/201517:38OLD MUTUAL PLC - Public Disclosure of Position
20/01/201517:30ELLIES HOLDINGS LIMITED - Dealings in securities by a director
20/01/201517:18NORTHAM PLATINUM LIMITED - Process in place to resolve strike action at Zonderie...
20/01/201517:15FIRSTRAND LIMITED - Launch of concurrent accelerated bookbuild offerings
20/01/201516:53HOSPITALITY PROPERTY FUND LIMITED - Disclosure of changes in the holding of the ...
20/01/201516:30THE FOSCHINI GROUP LIMITED - Directors Associates Dealing in securities
20/01/201515:40SYNTHESIS FUNDING LIMITED - New Financial Instrument Listing - SY1219
20/01/201514:53ONELOGIX GROUP LIMITED - Results of general meeting
20/01/201513:05BARLOWORLD LIMITED - BAW12-BAW13 - Interest Rate Reset
20/01/201513:03ATTACQ LIMITED - Results of a resolution of Attacq shareholders in terms of sect...
20/01/201512:56INVICTA HOLDINGS LIMITED - Finalisation announcement in respect of the rights of...
20/01/201512:50BRIKOR LIMITED - Passing away of Garnett van Niekerk Parkin and changes to the ...
20/01/201512:30SEKUNJALO INVESTMENTS LIMITED - Cautionary Announcement
20/01/201512:05NEDBANK LIMITED - Distribution Announcement - STXNIK
20/01/201511:58ACUCAP PROPERTIES LIMITED - Director's Dealing
20/01/201511:25STANDARD BANK OF SOUTH AFRICA LD - SCIB: The Standard Bank of South Africa Limit...
20/01/201510:54FIRESTONE ENERGY LIMITED - Tranche 1 of USD5.0 Million Convertible Note Funding ...
20/01/201510:22RBA HOLDINGS LIMITED - Waiver of mandatory offer
20/01/201510:15NAMPAK LIMITED - Acceptance of Performance Share Awards granted to Directors , C...
20/01/201510:12ATTACQ LIMITED - Results of annual general meeting
20/01/201510:10NAMPAK LIMITED - Acceptance of Share Appreciation Rights Granted to Directors, C...
20/01/201509:31THE DB X-TRACKER COL INVEST SCHEME - Listing of Additional Securities - DBXUS
20/01/201509:27WESCOAL HOLDINGS LIMITED - Appointment of Company Secretary
20/01/201509:20MIRANDA MINERAL HOLDINGS LIMITED - Renewal of Cautionary Announcement
20/01/201509:00GLENCORE PLC - Transaction in own shares
20/01/201508:30COAL OF AFRICA LIMITED - Holding in company

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