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 The Sharenet Daily 
Monday, 23 July 2012 - 20:00
Top News
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)

Picking the Current Winner

Who hasn’t heard the warning “past performance is no indication of future performance” before? But why do we still base our investment choices solely on the past performance of a fund?

We cling on the hope that a winning fund will continue its outperformance. By basing your decision only on the past performance of the fund you run the risk of investing into fund after its outperformance or disinvesting out of a good fund at wrong time.

The graph below illustrates this point. It shows the investment flows of Allan Gray Stable fund. This is overlaid with the previous year’s alpha versus the ALSI, the black line, and the following year’s alpha versus the ALSI, the red line.

Source: Allan Gray

The graph shows how investors chase after past performance. In January 2009 R150m of investments was made into the fund due to 36% outperformance it had the previous year versus the ALSI. The following year the fund underperformed the market by 27%.

On the flip side, if you disinvested from the fund in December 2010, you would have missed the 10% outperformance over the following year.

From the graph you can clearly see how the investment and disinvestments lag the past performance of the fund.

The fund outperformed the markets in 2008, because it was able to protect capital during the credit crisis. It underperformed in 2009 because it wasn’t able to fully capture the market rally due to its low equity holding.

A fund’s investment process is much more important than its past performances. By understanding how the fund is managed you will better know what you should expect from the fund going. You will better understand when to increase your holding or to decrease it.

From the above chart we can see that it is evident that the classic warning “past performance is no indication of future performance” is not just an empty warning.

Kind regards,

Gerbrandt Kruger

021 914 4966

Mon, 23 Jul 2012
Top News
South African stocks fell sharply on Monday, tracking lower global markets as concerns about Spain's finances weighed while tumbling commodity prices hit mining stocks.  Full story

Net sales revenue 19,410 24,805 (22). Gross profit on metal sales 2 2,079 4,767 (56). Operating profit 399 4,752 (92).Loss)/profit attributable to: Owners of the Company (464) 3,328 (114). Hea  Full story
Syria acknowledged for the first time on Monday that it had chemical and biological weapons and said it could use them if foreign countries intervened.  Full story
Russia formally notified the World Trade Organization on Monday that it had ratified its membership agreement, meaning it will become the 156th member of the trade rules club on Aug 22.  Full story
A Ukrainian court on Monday put off until July 31 the hearings in a tax evasion case against former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko because she was unable to attend the trial for health reasons.  Full story
European stocks sank on Monday, with a key blue-chip index tumbling to a three-week low and piercing through a major support level, hurt. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks dropped on Monday as McDonald's quarterly earnings missed expectations and the latest signs from Spain pointed to a euro-zone debt crisis. . .  Full story
Gold slipped on Monday as Spain's economic troubles fueled euro zone debt fears, but safe-haven bids helped bullion outperform equities and commodities and lifted. . .  Full story
World equity markets sold off and the euro plumbed to new two-year lows against the dollar on Monday after reports that more indebted. . .  Full story

Britain's top share index plunged on Monday to its lowest level in three weeks and fell back into the red for the year. . .  Full story
For the complete report please see. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks dropped at the open on Monday as Spain appeared closer to needing a sovereign bailout and fears grew that Greece may. . .  Full story
European shares extended their losses on Monday as a move by Spain to ban short-selling on all Spanish securities raised fears that the. . .  Full story

South Africa's growth this year is likely to miss the government's current forecasts, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said on Monday, while. . .  Full story
Anglo American Platinum (Amplats), the world's top platinum producer, signaled on Monday it plans to trim loss-making shafts as producers of. . .  Full story
South Africa's maize stocks rose to 5.528 million tonnes at the end of June compared with a revised 2.871 million tonnes. . .  Full story
Growth in South Africa's economy remains "pedestrian", with the manufacturing sector vulnerable to weak global growth because of its impact on. . .  Full story

South Africa's AngloGold Ashanti said on Monday second-quarter earnings likely fell by as much as 30 percent, hit by the lower gold price and overshadowing a rise in production.. . .  Full story
South Africa's rand weakened against the dollar on Monday and government bonds also eased as fears increased that Spain may need a full sovereign bailout, hitting global investors' appetite for riskier. . .  Full story
Anglo American Platinum, the world's top platinum producer, said on Monday it was reducing its full-year production and project spending targets, hit by chronic weakness in prices and demand for the. . .  Full story
Company News
Shareholders were advised that for the six months ended 30 June 2012, *headline earnings per share is expected to be between 85%. . .  Full story
The company expects an improvement of more than 50% in headline earnings per share ("HEPS") for the six months ending 31. . .  Full story
Avusa Ltd. ("Avusa") shareholders and Mvela Group shareholders were referred to the announcements released by Mvela Group and Avusa respectively on. . .  Full story
Business Report noted that Pick n Pay has managed to cut its energy usage by 20% against its baseline and achieved. . .  Full story

Highlights: *Average PGM dollar prices decreased in Q4 platinum and palladium fell 6% and 8% respectively while rhodium fell 9% *The rand weakened against the US dollar by 5% on average quarter-on-quarter *Attributable production for the fourth quarter increased slightly quarter-on-quarter to 98. . .  Full story
Fiuranium announced that on 20 July 2012, all of the conditions precedent to the Gold One transaction (as defined below) had been satisfied or waived. Each of the parties have confirmed such in writing and the closing date, as defined in. . .  Full story
Company Results
Dividend A final ordinary dividend of 10cps has been declared. Outlook Management remain optimistic on the growth prospects of the group through continued diversification into new product development and ventures, with a focus on infrastructure development and expansion of the group's customer base. With. . .  Full story
Gross income from operations and investments for the interim period more than doubled to R72.4 million (2011: R32.7 million), while net income for the period attributable to equity shareholders soared to R53.7 million (2011: R19.1 million). Furthermore, headline earnings per share. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0033814.00-410.00-1.20%
JSE Top 4017:0029682.00-391.00-1.30%
JSE Gold17:002255.0049.002.24%
JSE Financial17:0026151.00-331.00-1.25%
JSE Industrial17:0039283.00-326.00-0.82%
JSE Indust 2517:0033358.00-306.00-0.91%
JSE Resource17:0045367.00-840.00-1.82%
DJ Futures19:5812640.00-133.00-1.04%
DJ Ind19:5812697.88-124.69-0.97%
SP 50019:581347.97-14.69-1.08%
FTSE 10017:355533.87-117.90-2.09%
All Ords08:404159.20-71.40-1.69%
NZSE 5007:483465.361.660.05%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold $19:581576.51-3.80-0.24%
Gold R19:5713308.12234.411.79%
Gold R/kg19:5842787482331.96%
Silver $19:5827.0420-.1280-0.47%
Platinum $19:581396.50-9.50-0.68%
Palladium $19:58569.80-4.20-0.73%
Brent Crude19:58105.30-.02-0.02%
Rand / Dollar19:588.44320.16982.05%
Rand / Pound19:5513.06860.17411.35%
Rand / Euro19:5510.23280.19291.92%
Rand / NZD19:576.65630.05290.80%
Rand / AUD19:558.67250.08971.05%
Yen / Dollar19:5878.4370-0.0070-0.01%
Euro / Dollar19:550.8246-0.0003-0.04%
Dollar / Euro19:581.2121-0.0001-0.01%
Pound / Dollar19:550.64410.00360.56%

Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today

Trading Statistics
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 ILIAD  550397.63.%920
2 RAINBOW  1450725.22.%1822674
3 COMAIR  14575.07.%750
4 PBT  14575.07.%5300
5 EASTPLATS  19084.40.%4567
6 ESORFRANK  12054.35.%193547
7 DCENTRIX  480204.35.%1215757
8 TRNSHEX  339144.31.%8158
9 ANGGOLD  265508253.21.%949147
10 VUKILE  1835553.09.%163507
11 ONELOGIX  18552.78.%56471
12 NUWORLD  1900512.76.%360810
13 AFROX  1900502.70.%16936
14 CALGRO  400102.56.%46474
15 BELL  1975452.33.%35426
16 VIVIDEND  547122.24.%447800
17 ROLFES  38882.11.%39981
18 MUSTEK  600122.04.%2300
19 CIPLAMED  790151.94.%747387
20 DIGICOR  27551.85.%3020

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 GBGOLD  440-48-9.84.%3000
2 ATLATSA  142-13-8.39.%17020
3 PERGRIN  1200-100-7.69.%106962
4 GOLIATH  350-25-6.67.%1294
5 PUTPROP  635-45-6.62.%27700
6 OCTODEC  1809-121-6.27.%59517
7 AQUARIUS  519-31-5.64.%989817
8 CADIZ  190-10-5.00.%11374
9 INVPLC  4820-246-4.86.%986477
10 PETMIN  258-13-4.80.%72995
11 INVLTD  4830-230-4.55.%441488
12 EXXARO  16421-779-4.53.%881804
13 LONMIN  8800-394-4.29.%564106
14 MIXTEL  240-10-4.00.%4117
15 ANGLOPLAT  40750-1600-3.78.%214910
16 IMPERIAL  17158-642-3.61.%762472
17 KUMBAIO  54551-1999-3.53.%195154
18 BEE-SASOL  25100-900-3.46.%235
19 WITSGOLD  2900-100-3.33.%600
20 CBH  410-14-3.30.%22130

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 VUKILE  18351989553.09.%163507
2 VIVIDEND  547550122.24.%447800
3 HYPROP  66516694310.47.%128563
4 SABMILLER  34998352221190.34.%914434
5 GROWPNT  2535255550.20.%3066830

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 LONMIN  88008788-394-4.29.%564106
2 ANGLOPLAT  4075040500-1600-3.78.%214910
3 ARCMITTAL  47004653-150-3.09.%416264
4 ANGLO  2555025387-750-2.85.%3198404
5 MVELASERV  1010702-10-0.98.%35040

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Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4029,682.00-391.00-1.30%
Mid Cap49,779.00-373.00-0.75%
Small Cap36,662.00-183.00-0.50%
Resource 2045,367.00-840.00-1.82%
Industrial 2533,358.00-306.00-0.91%
Financial 159,749.00-138.00-1.40%
Financial & Ind. 3036,832.00-394.00-1.06%
All Share33,814.00-410.00-1.20%
Oil & Gas 25,759.00-484.00-1.85%
Mining 29,128.00-515.00-1.74%
Gold Mining2,255.0049.002.24%
Platinum Mining46.00.00-1.62%
GENERAL MINING7,526.00-183.00-2.38%
Oil & Gas Producers 13,850.00-260.00-1.85%
Basic Materials 25,091.00-457.00-1.79%
Chemicals 14,962.00-29.00-0.20%
Forestry & Paper 13,763.00-210.00-1.51%
Industrial Metals 29,026.00-1034.00-3.44%
Industrials 33,050.00-285.00-0.86%
General Industrials
Consumer Goods 33,914.001.000.00%
Automobiles & Parts 5,930.00-67.00-1.12%
Household Goods157.000-0.16%
Health Care 45,994.00-141.00-0.31%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 63,112.0013.000.02%
Personal Goods 446.00.000.01%
Consumer Services 69,863.00-654.00-0.93%
General Retailers 59,953.00-611.00-1.01%
Travel & Leisure 4,010.0011.000.28%
Media 97.00-1.00-1.47%
Support Services 2,289.00-18.00-0.81%
Telecommunications 68,596.00-1773.00-2.52%
Financials 26,151.00-331.00-1.25%
Banks 48,063.00-353.00-0.73%
Non-life Insurance 42,068.00238.000.57%
Life Insurance 20,821.00-499.00-2.34%
General Financial 2,413.00-80.00-3.22%
Technology 29,923.00-102.00-0.34%
SHARIAH TOP40 2,873.00-48-1.65%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,008.00-46-1.53%
COAL MINING21,421.00-981-4.38%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 5,440.0070.13%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,098.0020.22%
CAPPED PROPERTY 382.00-0.25%
RESOURCE 25,021.00-446-1.75%
DIVIDEND PLUS190.00-2-1.05%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 406,912.00-108-1.54%
Capped Top 4015,682.00-204-1.28%
Capped All Share17,108.00-206-1.20%
JSE TABACO 5,528.00-52-0.93%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
25 Jul 2012AECIJune 2012 (Interim)
25 Jul 2012AECI 5.5%PJune 2012 (Interim)
25 Jul 2012BATSJune 2012 (Interim)
25 Jul 2012SABVESTJune 2012 (Interim)
25 Jul 2012SABVEST-NJune 2012 (Interim)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
KUMBA12-07-2012-08-1012-08-20R 19.2000
SYNERGY B12-07-1912-08-0212-08-13R 0.1953
MAS12-07-1912-08-0212-08-17R 0.0160
SYNERGY A12-07-1912-08-0212-08-13R 0.4422
SBR00312-07-1312-07-2712-08-06R 1.4800
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
OMNIA12-06-2612-07-2012-07-30R 1.8000
PERGRIN12-06-0712-07-2012-07-30R 0.7200
PERGRIN12-06-0712-07-2012-07-30R 0.4533
INVLTD12-05-1712-07-2012-08-06R 0.0900
INVPLC12-05-1712-07-2012-08-06R 0.0900

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
OASOasis Crescent Property Fund23/07/2012Confirmed
SNVSantova Ltd.24/07/2012Confirmed
IFCIFCA Technologies Ltd.24/07/2012Confirmed
MDCMediclinic International Ltd.26/07/2012Confirmed
TONTongaat Hulett Ltd.27/07/2012Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
23/07/201217:15THE FOSCHINI GROUP LIMITED - Directors Dealing in Securities: Acceptance of shar...
23/07/201217:03Nedbank Limited - Dividend Distribution Announcement
23/07/201217:01Nedbank Limited - Dividend Distribution Announcement
23/07/201217:00MICROMEGA HOLDINGS LIMITED - Trading Statement for the six months ended 30 June ...
23/07/201217:00Clover Industries Limited - Clover ? Wage Negotiations Settlement
23/07/201216:38Nedbank Limited - Expiry And Delisting Announcement
23/07/201216:35REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA - Auction announcement Fixed Rate Bonds
23/07/201216:30NETCARE LIMITED - Change in shareholding announcement
23/07/201216:30PINNACLE TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS LTD - Trading statement
23/07/201216:00M Cubed Holdings Limited - Renewal Of Cautionary Announcement
23/07/201215:45Zeder Investments Limited - Appointment Of Chief Executive Officer
23/07/201215:24E LIMITED - Index Change Advice - 20120723 Ground Rules Change Dividend Plus Ind...
23/07/201215:22E LIMITED - Index Change Advice - 20120723 Ground Rules Amendment SWIX Index
23/07/201215:15KEATON ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED - Dealings in securities
23/07/201214:37Litha Healthcare Group Limited - Results Of The Paladin Offer To Minority Shareh...
23/07/201214:30CALGRO M3 HOLDINGS LIMITED - Trading Statement
23/07/201214:20INDWA INVESTMENTS LIMITED - Full Capital Rdemption
23/07/201213:34PALLINGHURST RESOURCES LIMITED - Results of rights offer
23/07/201213:30Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited - Harmony Hosts Visitors In Welkom
23/07/201212:00Vividend Income Fund Limited - Acquisition Of New Property And Renewal Of Cautio...
23/07/201212:00INVESTEC BANK LIMITED - Dividend Announcement -AMSIDF
23/07/201211:48Avusa Ltd - Shareholder Entitlement In Relation To The Offer By Times Media Grou...
23/07/201211:45Sabvest Limited - Unaudited Interim Results For The Six Months Ended 30 June 201...
23/07/201211:24South African Coal Mining Hldgs Ltd - Lifting Of Suspension Of Shares On Jse
23/07/201210:43E LIMITED - Consultation process on proposed changes to Listings Requirements in...
23/07/201210:41Spanjaard Limited - Results Of Annual General Meeting
23/07/201210:03OLDINGS LIMITED - Results of the Odd-Lot Offer and Voluntary Repurchase Offer (?...
23/07/201210:01INVESTEC BANK LIMITED - Dividend Announcement-KIOIDD
23/07/201210:00INVESTEC BANK LIMITED - Dividend Announcement- KIOIHA
23/07/201209:45LIBERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED - Trading Statement
23/07/201209:44African Bank Investments Limited - Voluntary Disclosure: Dealing In Securities B...
23/07/201209:30e Limited - Results Of Theprivate Placement Of Rockcastle Shares And Listing On ...
23/07/201209:02NY GOLD MINING COMPANY LIMITED - Harmony extends its CEO?s employment term
23/07/201208:45GOLD ONE INTERNATIONAL LIMITED - Completion of the Ezulwini Acquisition
23/07/201208:39GOLD ASHANTI LIMITED - AngloGold Ashanti gold production rises 9%; Ahead of guid...
23/07/201208:35GOLD ASHANTI LIMITED - AngloGold Ashanti obtains US$1 billion, five-year revolvi...
23/07/201208:19Aquarius Platinum Limited - Production Results To 30 June 2012
23/07/201208:00MINE WASTE SOLUTIONS (PTY) LTD - No interest payable
23/07/201208:00CAPITAL & COUNTIES PROPERTIES PLC - Great Capital Partnership Sells Jermyn Stree...
23/07/201208:00Anglo American Plat Ltd - Abridged Reviewed Interim Financial Results For The Si...
23/07/201208:00DIAMONDCORP PLC - Update re Loan Funding by IDC
23/07/201207:30FIRST URANIUM CORPORATION - Update on Sale
23/07/201207:05British American Tobacco Plc - Transaction In Own Shares
23/07/201207:05ELLIES HOLDINGS LIMITED - Audited group results for the year ended 30 April 2012
23/07/201207:05African Bank Investments Limited - African Bank Issues Chf150 Million (swiss Fra...

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