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 The Sharenet Daily 
Wednesday, 09 May 2012 - 20:00
Top News
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)

Is there Still Value in Local Retail Shares?

In nominal terms on the first trading day in May, the market moved up to a new high, closing at 34,482. New highs make many investors nervous, but typically they are bullish indicators. It is also interesting to note that this market high was made despite the fact that a large portion of the market – the resource sector – is still down over 35% from their 2008 recent highs. In other words the new market high has been driven by the financial and industrial sectors.

Ultimately business value is dependent on earnings growth, and as a sub sector certain of the general retailers have been exceptionally good at growing their earnings over the last 10 years. The sub-category of general retailer includes well known retail stores such as Cashbuild, Mr Price, Massmart, The Foschini Group, Truworths, Woolies, and Holdsport etc.

The chart below reflects the General Retail index relative to the earnings of this sub sector from 2000, both indexed to 100. Over this period, these companies have managed to grow their earnings by over 13.2% pa compounded. This compares reasonably well to the earnings on the overall market, which over the same time period have grown by a compounded 15%. From this starting point, the share prices have actually lagged earnings growth. However the starting valuations in January 2000 for this sector were expensive with the average PE at around 20.

At times investors become very enthusiastic about certain businesses and are willing to place higher and higher multiples on earnings. This was the case in January 2000 with these shares, and again from around March 2010 as prices relative to historical earnings moved through the 18 time level (i.e. PE above 18). Continuing growth in underlying earnings have, however, been supportive of the higher prices and the February official retail sales growth rate moved up firmly to an annual 7.2%.

While there may be some concern that this rate of retail growth, especially when combined with the high levels of unsecured debt, is not sustainable, a cursory view of some of this sector’s recent results and trading updates, gives a sense of generally firm growth:
• Mr Price, in its trading update for the year to March expects headline EPS to increase by between 18% and 23%.
• The Foschini Group will release its annual results to March at the end of May. It is expecting headline earnings per share to be up between 20% and 23%.
• Truworth’s interims reflected a 14% gain in headline earnings and it is planning 6% growth in trading space.
• Holdsport, the owner of Sportsman’s Warehouse and Outdoor Warehouse announced that its earnings for the year to February should be up around 20%.
• Massmart announced a 44 week sale update to the end of April with total sales growing by 14.7% and comparable store sales growth up 8.9%.

For a number of reasons, this sector continues to attract foreign investors, aided in no small measure by Wal-Mart’s acquisition of Massmart. These businesses have proven track records, good management, relatively low levels of government intervention, and a definite emerging market growth theme, making them attractive long term investments.

But as the historical PE moves back again to the 18 times level, more and more investors are pricing in strong growth over the next few years in order to justify these more steamier valuations. Investors should show some restraint.

Kind regards,

Ian de Lange
021 9144 966

Wed, 09 May 2012
Top News
South Africa's rand fell nearly two percent to a four-month low against the dollar on Wednesday, the second-weakest performer in a basket of emerging market currencies, as political and economic uncertainty in Europe dented risk appetite globally.  Full story

Revenue increased to R59.5 million (R57.9 million). Operating profit rose to R46.4 million (R45.9 million). Net profit for the year improved to R47 million (R46.1 million). However, headline earnings fell to 91.2 cents per unit (99.6 cents per unit). Distribution Notice was  Full story
Syrian rebels killed at least seven pro-government militiamen in a Damascus suburb on Wednesday, activists said, and an explosion wounded eight soldiers escorting U.N. ceasefire observers in the southern province of Deraa.  Full story
A Russian Sukhoi passenger plane with 50 people on board, including businessmen and Russian envoys, went missing during a demonstration flight near a volcano on Indonesia's Java island on Wednesday, officials said.  Full story
Serbia's reformist Democratic Party and the resurgent Socialists of late strongman Slobodan Milosevic agreed on Wednesday to renew a governing coalition that would keep the country edging towards the European Union.  Full story
European shares fell to a four-month low on Wednesday as growing political uncertainty in Greece and concerns over the Spanish financial system hit markets,. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks rebounded from session lows on Wednesday as optimism grew that Greece was likely to get a bailout payment approved.. . .  Full story
Gold dropped below $1,600 an ounce in heavy trading o n W ednesday, nearly wiping out gains for 2012 as political uncertainty in. . .  Full story
UK equities slumped to their lowest level this year on Wednesday and faced further losses amid downbeat corporate reports and concerns about the. . .  Full story

Global shares slid for a sixth day while safe-haven U.S. and German government debt rose o n We dnesday as the rising cost. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks cut losses heading into the close on Wednesday of European markets, in choppy trading driven by increased fears about Europe's debt. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks fell sharply in morning trade on Wednesday, with indexes extending losses to session lows, as political uncertainty hung over Greece and concerns. . .  Full story
U.S. stocks fell sharply at the open on Wednesday as political uncertainty hung over Greece and concerns arose over the frail state of. . .  Full story
SA Business
South African stocks fell for a fifth straight session on Wednesday, tracking a global market that was dragged down by worries. . .  Full story
. . .  Full story
South Africa's rand extended losses against the dollar on Wednesday, touching a 3-1/2 week low as renewed worries about growth prospects. . .  Full story
Engen Petroleum has partially shut its 125,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) refinery in South Africa as maintenance cuts crude oil supplies, a company. . .  Full story

Kenya's Equity Bank could consider an overseas listing as rapid expansion puts it in danger of outgrowing its home stock market,. . .  Full story
South Africa's ruling ANC struggles to boost economic growth needed to spur job creation, with the latest unemployment figures showing a quarter of. . .  Full story
Africa-focused Petra Diamonds Ltd's quarterly production more than doubled as output from its Finsch mine in South Africa was taken into. . .  Full story
The JSE Ltd, operator of Africa's biggest bourse, said on Wednesday it would have to completely rewrite a component of its. . .  Full story

The rand hit a fresh three-week low against the dollar on Wednesday, trading close to a resistance level of 7.95 that looks vulnerable given political uncertainty in Europe and signs of shaky domestic economic growth.. . .  Full story
Company News
Unitholders were advised of the following changes to the executive responsibilities of directors of Oasis Crescent Property Fund Managers Ltd., the. . .  Full story
Fiuranium announced that it has completed and is in the process of delivering information circulars and forms of proxies to its. . .  Full story
The group has continued its strong performance for the first six months to 31 March 2012, with headline earnings per share. . .  Full story
Sentula shareholders were referred to the announcement released on SENS on Friday, 2 March 2012 and published in the press on. . .  Full story

Evraz gave formal notice of possible retrenchments on 4 May 2012. Formal consultations with employee representatives will commence on 9 May. . .  Full story
Shareholders were advised that the company is currently engaged in discussions which, if successfully concluded, may have a material effect on. . .  Full story
At the ninety fifth (95th) annual general meeting of the shareholders of Delta held on 9 May 2012, all the resolutions. . .  Full story
Omnia is delighted to announce the successful completion of its world class Nitric Acid Complex in Sasolburg, which started operating towards. . .  Full story
Company Results
Revenue increased by 3% to R23.6 billion (R22.8 billion). EBITDA declined by 7% to R1.9 billion (R2.1 billion). Results from operating. . .  Full story
Revenues 95.9 101.9. Operating earnings 37.7 37.5. Net earnings 4.5 14.0.. . .  Full story
Revenue increased to R3.2 billion (R2.8 billion). Gross profit rose to R501 million (R347 million). Operating profit improved to R235 million. . .  Full story
Turnover. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0033434.04-113.73-0.34%
JSE Top 4017:0029443.83-55.66-0.19%
JSE Gold17:002256.2454.862.49%
JSE Financial17:0024959.64-163.41-0.65%
JSE Industrial17:0037789.37-309.22-0.81%
JSE Indust 2517:0031762.67-228.45-0.71%
JSE Resource17:0047912.55252.840.53%
DJ Futures19:5212865.00-15.00-0.12%
DJ Ind19:4112906.47-25.62-0.20%
SP 50019:561362.08-1.64-0.12%
FTSE 10017:355530.05-24.50-0.44%
All Ords08:454332.20-43.70-1.00%
NZSE 5007:463559.477.410.21%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold/R kg19:5640829622530.55%
Brent Crude19:56112.35.970.87%
Rand / Dollar19:597.97370.09141.16%
Rand / Pound19:5512.84280.13071.03%
Rand / Euro19:5510.33670.08390.82%
Rand / NZD19:586.27120.05930.95%
Rand / AUD19:558.04200.06550.82%
Yen / Dollar19:5979.6960-0.1770-0.22%
Euro / Dollar19:550.77090.00200.26%
Dollar / Euro19:591.2965-0.0033-0.25%
Pound / Dollar19:550.61890.00010.02%

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The JSE Today

Trading Statistics
* Includes all listed instruments on the JSE
Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 BRIMSTON  115011911.54.%91300
2 GOLIATH  435369.02.%65544
3 AFRO-C  340288.97.%302569
4 JASCO  12875.79.%200567
5 INDEQTY  380205.56.%20000
6 CIPLAMED  770364.90.%5040995
7 AF-OVER  1650754.76.%1
8 AVUSA  2035854.36.%52531
9 TRUSTCO  10943.81.%260000
10 EXCELL  11543.60.%16000
11 PALLINGHT  315103.28.%13000
12 OCEANA  44901403.22.%132702
13 METROFILE  325103.17.%107300
14 TRENCOR  47781433.09.%28423
15 GFIELDS  102613013.02.%1568979
16 AMECOR  22462.75.%12372
17 ESORFRANK  16442.50.%161650
18 HOWDEN  2050502.50.%693
19 HARMONY  74731772.43.%2977700
20 ALTECH  53801252.38.%28707

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 SOVFOOD  475-70-12.84.%11787
2 RANGOLD  230-30-11.54.%2885
3 BARWORLD  8750-745-7.85.%3431689
4 CIL  1300-69-5.04.%147404
5 SAPPI  2574-135-4.98.%1529447
6 AQUARIUS  1385-72-4.94.%114743
7 SPAR  11250-575-4.86.%952477
8 LONFIN  201-9-4.29.%10
9 SASFIN  3021-129-4.10.%669
10 METAIR  2515-105-4.01.%422257
11 GROUP-5  2825-111-3.78.%161928
12 HCI  8175-279-3.30.%172037
13 RAUBEX  1340-40-2.90.%93986
14 NUWORLD  1700-50-2.86.%10138
15 ELBGROUP  2160-60-2.70.%840
16 EXXARO  19000-511-2.62.%1442811
17 REUNERT  7000-186-2.59.%238166
18 JUBILEE  152-4-2.56.%224572
19 STEINHOFF  2750-70-2.48.%7916117
20 COAL  590-15-2.48.%640974

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 JASCO  12812875.79.%200567
2 INDEQTY  380380205.56.%20000
3 CIPLAMED  770780364.90.%5040995
4 AF-OVER  16501650754.76.%1
5 TRENCOR  477851341433.09.%28423
6 HOWDEN  20502050502.50.%693
7 MVELAGRP  343375-6-1.72.%304875

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 AQUARIUS  13851348-72-4.94.%114743
2 LONMIN  1201511903-185-1.52.%313250
3 IMPLATS  1402013857-93-0.66.%2740834
4 ANGLOPLAT  48082465012950.62.%346574
5 ALTECH  538051451252.38.%28707
6 HARMONY  747371591772.43.%2977700

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Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4029,443.83-55.66-0.19%
Mid Cap48,379.75-592.59-1.21%
Small Cap36,010.09-38.76-0.11%
Resource 2047,912.55252.840.53%
Industrial 2531,762.67-228.45-0.71%
Financial 159,404.35-60.76-0.64%
Financial & Ind. 3035,277.22-243.09-0.68%
All Share33,434.04-113.73-0.34%
Oil & Gas 26,658.63172.530.65%
Mining 30,876.32169.160.55%
Gold Mining2,256.2454.862.49%
Platinum Mining53.59-.22-0.41%
GENERAL MINING7,945.7527.690.35%
Oil & Gas Producers 14,333.8692.780.65%
Basic Materials 26,414.49113.140.43%
Chemicals 14,879.361.820.01%
Forestry & Paper 13,361.67-226.00-1.66%
Industrial Metals 28,857.06-89.25-0.31%
Industrials 32,883.23-435.10-1.31%
General Industrials 89.00-1.24-1.37%
Consumer Goods 32,776.18-148.94-0.45%
Automobiles & Parts 5,695.11-237.77-4.01%
Household Goods180.75-5-2.48%
Health Care 42,179.43-463.81-1.09%
Beverages 108.97-.11-0.10%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 61,473.50-532.97-0.86%
Personal Goods 468.62-2.80-0.59%
Consumer Services 64,985.22-982.34-1.49%
General Retailers 54,787.57-410.31-0.74%
Travel & Leisure 3,758.3212.480.33%
Media 96.36-2.29-2.32%
Support Services 2,424.5929.531.23%
Telecommunications 67,083.66-137.83-0.21%
Financials 24,959.64-163.41-0.65%
Banks 48,519.69-361.57-0.74%
Non-life Insurance 41,869.18-880.52-2.06%
Life Insurance 19,142.94-85.47-0.44%
General Financial 2,298.14-26.35-1.13%
Technology 28,465.92-141.35-0.49%
SHARIAH TOP40 2,963.8660.19%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,089.55-0-0.01%
COAL MINING25,460.00-571-2.19%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 5,406.9540.07%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,201.21-18-1.46%
CAPPED PROPERTY 338.22-0.50%
RESOURCE 26,427.871490.57%
DIVIDEND PLUS195.16-2-0.96%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 406,937.27-30-0.43%
Capped Top 4015,539.46-34-0.22%
Capped All Share16,912.21-59-0.34%
JSE TABACO 5,106.9550.09%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
10 May 2012AFRIMATFebruary 2012 (Final)
10 May 2012ANGLDMarch 2012 (Q)
10 May 2012ANGLD-AMarch 2012 (Q)
10 May 2012ANGLD-BMarch 2012 (Q)
10 May 2012ANGLD-EMarch 2012 (Q)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
SPAR12-05-0912-06-0112-06-11R 1.5500
ARROWA12-05-0912-05-2512-06-04R 0.1500
OASIS12-05-0912-05-2512-06-04R 0.4399
ARROWB12-05-0912-05-2512-06-04R 0.0968
ALTRON PP12-05-0712-06-2212-07-02R 0.9200
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
ASSORE12-04-1612-05-0412-05-21R 2.5000
CIPLAMED12-03-1512-05-0412-05-14R 0.0750
CBH12-02-2112-05-0412-05-14R 0.0598
DIGICORE12-02-2112-05-0412-05-14R 0.0300

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
ANDAndulela Investment Holdings Ltd.10/05/2012Unconfirmed
ANGEAngloGold Ashanti Ltd.10/05/2012Confirmed
ANGBAngloGold Ashanti Ltd.10/05/2012Confirmed
ANGAngloGold Ashanti Ltd.10/05/2012Confirmed
ANGAAngloGold Ashanti Ltd.10/05/2012Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
09/05/201217:38GEN - FTSE/JSE Africa Index Series - Mercantile Bank Holdings
09/05/201217:33 Oasis Crescent Property - Changes to Executive Responsibilities of
09/05/201217:29 Exxaro Resources Limited - Trading of Exxaro ordinary shares on behalf
09/05/201217:18 Capitec Bank Holdings Limited - Dealing in securities by a director
09/05/201217:16 Oasis - Final Abridged Audited Results and Income Distribution
09/05/201217:02 MTN Group Limited - Dealing in securities by a director of a major
09/05/201217:00 African Rainbow Minerals Limited - Correction Announcement: Director`s
09/05/201217:00 Nu-World Holdings Limited - Unaudited Interim Report for the six
09/05/201216:45 Capital Shopping Centres Group Plc - Issue of Shares and Director and PDMR
09/05/201216:39AWA/AWB - Arrowhead - Unaudited Interim Results for the six months ended 31
09/05/201216:14 Pinnacle Technology Holdings Limited - Dealing in securities by the
09/05/201216:12 Zaptronix Limited - Posting of circular and notice of shareholders
09/05/201216:05MWNT - Mine Waste Solutions (Proprietary) Limited - MWS and First Uranium in
09/05/201216:01UUU - First Uranium Corporation - First Uranium in process of distributing
09/05/201215:56MNDNIF - Nedbank - Dividend distribution announcement in relation to the MND
09/05/201215:54MNPNIF - Nedbank Limited - Dividend distribution announcement in relation to
09/05/201215:52 Cashbuild Limited - Dealing in securities by a director
09/05/201215:48ABN50 - Absa Bank Limited - New Financial Instrument Listing
09/05/201215:45 Capital Shopping Centres Group Plc - Notification of transactions of
09/05/201215:38 Optimum Coal Holdings Limited - Dealing in Securities by a Director
09/05/201215:17BIIVU - iVuzi Investments Limited - Full Capital Redemption
09/05/201215:15 Tiger Brands Limited - Competition Commission announcement - Oceana
09/05/201215:15 British American Tobacco p.l.c.- Notification of transactions of
09/05/201214:47BAW/BAWP - Barloworld Limited - Trading statement
09/05/201214:46 Nutritional Holdings Limited - Trading Statement
09/05/201214:45 Sentula Mining Limited - Announcement relating to The Broad-Based Black
09/05/201214:36 Evraz Highveld Steel and Vanadium - Evraz Highveld gives formal notice in
09/05/201214:14 Bowler Metcalf Limited - Director`s dealing in securities
09/05/201214:09 Metair Investments Limited - Dealings in securities by a director
09/05/201214:08 Cipla Medpro South Africa Ltd - Cautionary announcement
09/05/201213:56 Oceana Group Limited - Updated trading statement
09/05/201213:55 Oceana Group Limited - Consent agreement concluded with The Competition
09/05/201213:41 Delta EMD Limited - Report on proceedings at Annual General Meeting
09/05/201212:47BIIVU - iVuzi Investments Limited - Listing of Tap Issue
09/05/201212:24 Capitec Bank Holdings Limited - Dealing in securities by a director
09/05/201212:23 Vunani Limited - Correction : Directors dealings in securities
09/05/201212:00 Omnia Holdings Limited - Omnia`s New Nitric Acid Complex on time and below
09/05/201212:00RES - Resource Generation Limited - Resgen investor update presentation
09/05/201211:51 Vunani Limited - Directors dealings in securities
09/05/201211:10THEE - The Competition Commission - Commission concludes settlement with Oceana
09/05/201210:59 Trencor Limited - First Quarter Update
09/05/201210:31BIICL - Imperial Capital Limited - Full Capital Redemption
09/05/201209:44BITRA - Transnet SOC Limited - Tap Issue Listing
09/05/201209:25 Firestone Energy Limited - Notice of change of interests of substantial
09/05/201209:00 PSG Group Limited - Dealing in PSG Group Limited shares by associates of
09/05/201209:00 Sun International Limited - Business Update for the Quarter and Nine
09/05/201208:58 Resource Generation Limited - Transcript of webcast by Paul Jury Managing
09/05/201208:48 Royal Bafokeng Platinum Limited - Directors` dealings in terms of the IPO
09/05/201208:34 Resource Generation Limited - Investor update webcast
09/05/201208:30 JSE Limited - Update on Systems Replacement Programme
09/05/201208:28BITRA - Transnet SOC Limited - Tap Issue Listing
09/05/201207:12SBR003 - The Standard Bank Of South Africa Limited - Interest Rate announcement
09/05/201207:10 British American Tobacco P.l.c - Transaction in own shares
09/05/201207:06 Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited - Harmony continues to generate
09/05/201207:05 Decillion - Trading Statement
09/05/201207:05CPL003 - Capital Property Fund, a Portfolio in the Capital Property Trust
09/05/201207:05 The Spar Group Limited - Unaudited Interim Results for the six months
09/05/201207:05 Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited - Results for the third quarter fy12
09/05/201207:05INVS - Investec Bank Limited - The issue of hot enhanced dividend securities
09/05/201207:05 Trematon Capital Investments Limited - Joint announcement relating to the

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