Monday, 14 November 2011 - 20:00
Charts
Economic Growth versus Market Returns A common assumption often made by the layman and sometimes by the professional investor is that good growth, be it in company earnings or in an economy, will be followed by strong returns (from the company or market as a whole, as the case may be). The logic behind this thinking is that good growth should equate to good returns, and poor growth to poor returns. What is often forgotten is that markets are forward looking, and that good growth often gets priced in before it happens.
In order to determine whether good economic growth was generally followed by good market growth I took South Africa’s annual GDP real growth and the ALSI’s annual (calendar year) real return (i.e. both measures stripping out the effects of inflation) from 1969 – 2010, over which time the South African economy has grown at an average of 2.7% per annum. I then split each year’s growth into a bucket: GDP growth of between 1% and 4% was considered to be average (2.7% + or – approximately 1.5%) with any growth in excess of this considered high and any periods below this considered low growth periods.
The chart below shows the GDP growth buckets and the following year’s return from the market. It is interesting to note that periods of low economic growth have typically been followed by strong 12 month periods of market returns and average growth was followed by the worst returns.
In the following chart it is plain to see how uncorrelated these two data sets are, just going to show that good economic growth isn’t always followed by good market growth. Importantly this is just a general observation and there are good economic periods followed by good market growth and vice versa (in 1986 for instance, GDP growth was 0% and in 1987 the market fell by 20%). Investors should therefore be wary of blindly using this type of strategy when investing.
With my interest piqued, I decided to see whether there was any correlation between current market returns and future GDP growth. The logic behind this thinking was that markets should react favourably to future GDP growth.
Using the same data set, but lagging GDP growth rather than market returns, gave the outcome below. Essentially the graph indicates that good market returns are typically followed by strong economic growth, although one can’t assume that good market returns are the cause of good economic growth.
Variations of this research have been done in many countries and economies with similar results. This isn’t a uniquely South African occurrence. Essentially what this research indicates is that investors at all times need to establish what’s in the price of any market (or share for that matter) and determine the difference between a good economy and one that will produce strong market returns, bearing in mind they often aren’t the same.
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Take care,
Mike Browne
info@seedinvestments.co.za
www.seedinvestments.co.za
021 9144 966
Mon, 14 Nov 2011
Top News
South Africa's rand weakened against the dollar on Monday as nagging worries about euro zone debt came back into play, wiping out some of last week's gains. Full story
South African stocks gained marginally on Monday, led by Kumba Iron Ore and other mining firms while industrial group Barloworld rose 2.9 percent after full-year earnings beat estimates. Full story |
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Syria incurred more European sanctions and criticism from Turkey and Jordan on Monday after a surprise Arab League decision to suspend it for failing to halt months of violence aimed at crushing opposition to President Bashar al-Assad. Full storyGreece's conservatives vowed on Monday to reject any new austerity measures in return for the aid that is keeping Athens from bankruptcy, signalling a new coalition government may not enjoy the kind of cross-party support its lenders demand. Full storyNorwegian anti-immigration militant Anders Behring Breivik spoke in open court for the first time on Monday and admitted killing 77 people at a July youth camp, but he denied any guilt, saying he was a military commander in a far-right resistance movement. Full story |
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Markets | Wall Street stocks declined on
Monday as euro zone data signaled the region could be facing a
recession, adding to worries about Europe's. . . Full story | | Britain's top shares fell
on Monday as the latest Italian bond auction dented investor
confidence in the ability of new governments in Italy. . . Full story | | U.S. stocks added to losses at
midday on Monday, pushing the S&P 500 down more than 1 percent
as data increased fears of. . . Full story | | Global equity markets and the
euro slid on Monday as investors, unnerved by an Italian bond
auction, doubted the ability of new governments. . . Full story |
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| European shares fell on
Monday as record high yields at an Italian bond auction served
as a reminder that the country still faces. . . Full story | | Gold fell on Monday, under
pressure from a stronger dollar, which gained after initial
optimism over the ability of Italy and Greece to. . . Full story | | U.S. stocks opened lower on
Monday as Italy and Greece rushed to form technocrat-led
governments in a bid to stave of the euro. . . Full story | | European share prices
fell further on Monday as an Italian bond auction showed
investors were still reluctant to buy any more of the. . . Full story |
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SA Business | Diversified miner Xstrata said on Monday that customer deliveries have not been hit by three weeks of strikes at ferrochrome operations. . . Full story | | India's No. 3 software exporter, Wipro, expects revenue from Africa to rise to $30 million in the current fiscal year from. . . Full story | | South Africa will set up clear rules to govern foreign direct investment, the finance minister said on Monday, after the government. . . Full story | | South Africa has made available 800 million rand for renewable energy projects and is seeking private partners to manage the fund,. . . Full story |
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| Kazakh miner ENRC
said ferrochrome prices are near a bottom, weighed down by
negative market sentiment and excess supply and that production
cuts. . . Full story | | Lonmin, the world's third-largest platinum producer, beat expectations with a 59 percent jump in full-year earnings, even though a strike at. . . Full story | | China's antitrust regulator has approved a $1.2 billion bid for South Africa's Metorex by Jinchuan Group, Metorex said on Monday, with. . . Full story | | South Africa's rand and bonds started the week on a slightly firmer note on Monday as investors returned to riskier assets. . . Full story |
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| Harmony Gold, South Africa's third-largest gold producer, said on Monday it had received a number of enquiries and proposals from parties interested in acquiring its assets in Papua New Guinea, but. . . Full story | | | | South Africa's agri-processing business Tongaat Hulett posted flat first-half earnings on Monday and said it expects a 14 percent increase in sugar output for the year.. . . Full story |
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Company News | HCI shareholders were referred to the announcement released on SENS on 11 November 2011 wherein shareholders were advised that HCI's earnings. . . Full story | | It was with deep regret that Fiuranium announced that a fall of ground has claimed the life of an underground employee. . . Full story | | The board announced the appointment of Dr Andre John Parker as an independent non-executive director of Orion with effect from 2. . . Full story | | Shareholders were referred to the company's detailed announcement on SENS dated 16 September 2011 ("the announcement") regarding the proposed acquisition of. . . Full story |
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| Unitholders are referred to the SENS announcement of Thursday, 20 October 2011, where it was announced that an income distribution, after non-permissible income of 4 709.59 cents (in aggregate) for every. . . Full story | | Property loan stock company Vukile is to acquire a portfolio of 20 properties, worth nearly R1.5 billion, from Sanlam Life Insurance. The acquisition is expected to be effective in June next. . . Full story | | Further to the cautionary announcement dated 3 November 2011, Vukile linked unitholders ("unitholders") are advised that the company has made an offer to Sanlam Life Insurance Limited ("Sanlam") dated 3 November. . . Full story |
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Company Results | Revenue for the interim period ended 31 August 2011 decreased to R494.8 million (2010: R538.3 million). Earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation. . . Full story | | Contract revenue increased to R683.4 million (R601.3 million). Gross profit decreased to R21.9 million (R123.1 million) and operating loss was recorded. . . Full story | | Revenue increased by 3% to R8.6 billion (R8.4 billion). Net attributable profit rose by 20% to R429.2 million (R357.6 million). In. . . Full story | | Revenue was up by 6.7% to R2.3 billion (R2.1 billion) and operating profit climbed by 6.3% to R498.5 million (R468.9 million).. . . Full story |
World Markets (Spot Prices)
Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | JSE Overall | 17:00 | 32343.89 | 82.24 | 0.25% | JSE Top 40 | 17:00 | 28968.93 | 80.43 | 0.28% | JSE Gold | 17:00 | 3195.87 | 13.09 | 0.41% | JSE Financial | 17:00 | 21401.79 | -68.91 | -0.32% | JSE Industrial | 17:00 | 34092.34 | 130.68 | 0.38% | JSE Indust 25 | 17:00 | 28682.43 | 116.94 | 0.41% | JSE Resource | 17:00 | 54194.45 | 203.55 | 0.38% | DJ Futures | 19:56 | 12000.00 | -112.00 | -0.92% | DJ Ind | 19:45 | 12065.29 | -88.39 | -0.73% | SP 500 | 20:00 | 1250.26 | -13.59 | -1.08% | Nasdaq | 20:00 | 2656.35 | -22.40 | -0.84% | FTSE 100 | 18:35 | 5519.04 | -26.34 | -0.47% | DAX | 18:46 | 5992.74 | -64.29 | -1.06% | CAC40 | 18:46 | 3112.52 | -36.86 | -1.17% | Nikkei | 08:26 | 8603.70 | 89.23 | 1.05% | Shanghai | 09:26 | 2528.71 | 47.63 | 1.92% | Hang-Seng | 10:26 | 19508.18 | 371.01 | 1.94% | All Ords | 07:41 | 4369.10 | 10.50 | 0.24% | NZSE 50 | 06:46 | 3309.86 | -12.15 | -0.37% |
| | Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | Gold | 19:59 | 1776.65 | -11.59 | -0.65% | Gold/Rand | 20:00 | 14229.90 | 141.17 | 1.00% | Gold/R kg | 20:00 | 457491 | 8145 | 1.81% | Silver | 19:59 | 34.0650 | -.6400 | -1.84% | Platinum | 19:59 | 1637.00 | -1.20 | -0.07% | Palladium | 19:59 | 661.50 | 5.70 | 0.87% | R157 | 17:02 | 6.66 | .07 | 1.06% | R204 | 17:02 | 7.69 | .07 | 0.92% | Brent Crude | 19:56 | 112.04 | -.16 | -0.14% | Rand / Dollar | 19:59 | 8.0094 | 0.1331 | 1.69% | Rand / Pound | 19:55 | 12.7154 | 0.0709 | 0.56% | Rand / Euro | 19:55 | 10.9209 | 0.0558 | 0.51% | Rand / NZD | 19:58 | 6.2345 | 0.0136 | 0.22% | Rand / AUD | 19:55 | 8.1602 | 0.0241 | 0.30% | Yen / Dollar | 19:59 | 77.0370 | -0.1330 | -0.17% | Euro / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.7340 | 0.0085 | 1.17% | Dollar / Euro | 19:59 | 1.3620 | -0.0155 | -1.13% | Pound / Dollar | 19:55 | 0.6288 | 0.0069 | 1.11% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today
Trading Statistics
Date | Adv. | Decl. | Unch. | Actives | Volume | Value | Trades | Orders |
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14/11/2011 | 201 | 149 | 90 | 440 | 283,182,433 | R8,531,415,885 | 73401 | 2422962 | 11/11/2011 | 176 | 151 | 91 | 418 | 196,669,898 | R8,153,008,443 | 74020 | 2501417 | 10/11/2011 | 181 | 164 | 86 | 431 | 244,960,321 | R11,048,336,710 | 92436 | 2512913 | 09/11/2011 | 123 | 240 | 81 | 444 | 255,463,787 | R12,409,833,097 | 115363 | 2803376 | 08/11/2011 | 220 | 128 | 96 | 444 | 247,286,363 | R10,570,419,272 | 79239 | 2148994 |
Index Summary Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Top 40 | 28,968.93 | 80.43 | 0.28% | Industrial | 34,092.34 | 130.68 | 0.38% | Mid Cap | 43,040.32 | 66.23 | 0.15% | Small Cap | 32,088.61 | -1.07 | -0.00% | Resource 20 | 54,194.45 | 203.55 | 0.38% | Industrial 25 | 28,682.43 | 116.94 | 0.41% | Financial 15 | 7,985.01 | -28.75 | -0.36% | Financial & Ind. 30 | 31,399.47 | 54.15 | 0.17% | All Share | 32,343.89 | 82.24 | 0.25% | Oil & Gas | 28,655.52 | 281.14 | 0.99% | Mining | 35,359.09 | 105.42 | 0.30% | Gold Mining | 3,195.87 | 13.09 | 0.41% | Platinum Mining | 66.05 | .36 | 0.55% | GENERAL MINING | 8,527.26 | 17.88 | 0.21% | Oil & Gas Producers | 15,407.55 | 151.17 | 0.99% | Basic Materials | 29,771.29 | 112.30 | 0.38% | Chemicals | 12,951.18 | -6.06 | -0.05% | Forestry & Paper | 11,530.36 | 43.92 | 0.38% | Industrial Metals | 30,076.96 | 614.52 | 2.09% | Industrials | 28,164.54 | 39.67 | 0.14% | General Industrials | 78,800.67 | 147.28 | 0.19% | Consumer Goods | 29,420.18 | 70.65 | 0.24% | Automobiles & Parts | 3,872.22 | 22.64 | 0.59% | Household Goods | 152.52 | 1 | 0.33% | Health Care | 35,062.10 | 56.51 | 0.16% | Beverages | 96.13 | -.69 | -0.71% |
| | Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Food Producers | 52,220.44 | -1.13 | -0.00% | Personal Goods | 432.16 | 7.69 | 1.81% | Consumer Services | 57,174.71 | 170.72 | 0.30% | General Retailers | 48,095.35 | 9.54 | 0.02% | Travel & Leisure | 3,672.97 | -8.14 | -0.22% | Media | 81.25 | .25 | 0.31% | Support Services | 2,217.80 | 7.39 | 0.33% | Telecommunications | 67,068.98 | 492.37 | 0.74% | Financials | 21,401.79 | -68.91 | -0.32% | Banks | 39,492.00 | -109.98 | -0.28% | Non-life Insurance | 33,936.61 | -133.37 | -0.39% | Life Insurance | 15,952.10 | -92.92 | -0.58% | General Financial | 2,187.00 | 2.37 | 0.11% | Technology | 24,757.16 | -55.26 | -0.22% | SHARIAH TOP40 | 3,165.37 | 19 | 0.62% | FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL | 3,221.08 | 19 | 0.58% | COAL MINING | 24,539.61 | 174 | 0.71% | FTSE JSE Fledgling | 4,626.46 | -20 | -0.42% | FTSE/JSE Alt X | 1,236.94 | 11 | 0.94% | SA LISTED PROPERTY | 387.07 | | -0.29% | CAPPED PROPERTY | 317.08 | | -0.32% | RESOURCE | 29,988.87 | 118 | 0.40% | DIVIDEND PLUS | 175.03 | 0 | 0.18% | FTSE/JSE RAFI 40 | 6,642.45 | 12 | 0.19% | Capped Top 40 | 15,226.91 | 44 | 0.29% | Capped All Share | 16,339.04 | 42 | 0.26% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes** Code | Company Name | Status | Updated | PPC | PRETORIA PORT CEMNT | SELL | 10 Nov | ALT | ALLIED TECHNOLOGIES LIMIT... | HOLD | 10 Nov | TRU | TRUWORTHS INTERNATIONAL L... | HOLD | 10 Nov | AVU | AVUSA LTD | SELL | 10 Nov | BAW | BARLOWORLD LIMITED | BUY | 10 Nov |
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Results Expected** Expected | Company Name | Fin. Date | 15 Nov 2011 | CONDUIT | August 2011 (Final) | 15 Nov 2011 | EHSV | September 2011 (Q) | 15 Nov 2011 | FIURANIUM | September 2011 (Interim) | 15 Nov 2011 | GB LD | September 2011 (Q) | 15 Nov 2011 | GB LD OPT | September 2011 (Q) |
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Recent Dividends** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | BCX | 11-11-10 | 12-01-06 | 12-01-16 | R 0.1400 | ARGENT | 11-11-10 | 11-12-02 | 11-12-12 | R 0.0400 | OCEANA | 11-11-10 | 12-01-06 | 12-01-16 | R 1.8300 | EFFICIENT | 11-11-09 | 11-11-25 | 11-12-05 | R 0.0260 | SPAR | 11-11-09 | 11-11-25 | 11-12-05 | R 2.3500 |
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Ex Div** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | REMGRO | 11-09-20 | 11-11-11 | 11-11-21 | R 2.1300 | OCTODEC | 11-10-21 | 11-11-11 | 11-11-21 | R 0.6430 | PREMIUM | 11-10-21 | 11-11-11 | 11-11-21 | R 0.5580 | MVELASV | 11-09-15 | 11-11-11 | 11-11-21 | R 0.3600 | CBH | 11-08-23 | 11-11-11 | 11-11-21 | R 0.1084 |
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Upcoming AGMs** Code | Company Name | Date | Status | SLO | Southern Electricity Company Ltd | 15/11/2011 | Confirmed | EMI | Emira Property Fund | 15/11/2011 | Confirmed | AON | African and Overseas Enterprises Ltd | 16/11/2011 | Confirmed | AOO | African and Overseas Enterprises Ltd | 16/11/2011 | Confirmed | AOVP | African and Overseas Enterprises Ltd | 16/11/2011 | Confirmed |
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