Daily Equity Report |
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Welcome to the Sharenet Daily Equity Report
Issue: 01 February 2011 20:00
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Commoditie pricesThese have been on the rise for some time now, due to both fundamental (supply and demand) and monetary (global money supply) reasons. Numerous macro and micro fundamental reasons come into play, including geopolitical issues such as political unrest in Egypt, weather issues experienced across the globe, which disrupt supply and strong demand from a growing China.
What are commodities?
These are essentially substances that come out of the ground and generally maintain a universal price. Typical is gold, copper and sugar.
A characteristic of a commodity is that its price is determined as a function of the market as a whole and with most commodities this includes both a spot price and a futures price.
While there are innumerable fundamental factors impacting prices, research has revealed that there is a significant negative relationship between commodity prices and interest rates across all commodity prices. I.e. lower real interest rates correlate with higher commodity prices.
There are various classifications of commodities, but for purposes of producing an index, the Commodity Research Bureau - CRB - segment commodities into 6 sub categories, each of which contains underlying constituents as follows.
• Energy, which includes crude oil, natural gas
• Grains, which includes corn, soybeans, wheat etc.
• Industrials copper and cotton etc.
• Livestock, comprising cattle and hogs etc.
• Precious metals, includes gold, platinum, silver
• Softs include cocoa, coffee, orange juice and sugar etc.
Jeremy Grantham from fund manager, GMO, made some comments on their thoughts on commodity prices.
“I fear that rising resource prices could cause serious inflation in some emerging countries this year. In theory, this could stop the progress of the bubble that is forming in U.S. equities. In practice, it is unlikely to stop our market until our rates have at least started to rise. Given the whiffs of deflation still lingering from lost asset values, the continued weak housing market, weak employment, and very contained labour costs, an inflationary scare in the U.S. seems a ways off.”
He goes on to say that “The complicating point is that in the recent few years, commodities seem to be making a paradigm shift. If this is so, it will be the most important paradigm shift to date. The bad news is that paradigm shifts cannot, by definition, be described well using history. It is all about judgment.”
The CRB index
Selected commodity prices, relative to the S&P500
Palladium, silver, Brent crude, gold, copper and platinum
The charts above clearly demonstrate the firm prices over the last 12 and 24 months.
So despite the very firm gains, we are likely to see more of the same in the year ahead. Naturally this is positive for a country such as South Africa which exports metals and some agricultural products, but at the same time the rise in oil and food prices is starting to come into the inflation numbers.
Kind regards
Ian de Lange
info@seedinvestments.co.za
www.seedinvestments.co.za
021 9144 966
Tue, 01 Feb 2011
South African stocks closed nearly 2 percent higher on Tuesday as mining, banking and telecom stocks rebounded, and as the market was boosted by firmer U.S. equities. Full story |
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South Africa must hurry up
and decide which city will bid to host the 2020 Olympic Games,
the country's sports minister Fikile Mbalula said on Tuesday. Full storyGhana joined the club of
oil-producing nations in December, offering it the chance to
transform the fortunes of its aid-dependent economy. Full storyA stretch of West Africa's coast
spanning more than a dozen countries, the Gulf of Guinea is a
growing source of oil, cocoa and metals to world markets. Full story |
15h44 South Africa's Sekoko Coal said on Tuesday it has signed a memorandum of understanding with power utility Eskom for the possibility. . . Full story | 14h41 South African black-owned property fund Dipula aims to list on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange this year as part of a fundraising. . . Full story | 13h09 South African maize futures ended mixed on Tuesday, while the most active wheat future closed lower, in line with international prices.. . . Full story | 11h04 South Africa's Purchasing Managers' Index gained to a seasonally adjusted 54.6 in January from 51.7 in December, a Kagiso Securities' survey. . . Full story |
Trading Statistics
Date | Adv. | Decl. | Unch. | Actives | Volume | Value | Trades | Orders |
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01/02/2011 | 199 | 144 | 78 | 421 | 296,018,648 | R14,543,166,112 | 121155 | 2448560 | 31/01/2011 | 116 | 222 | 83 | 421 | 295,942,885 | R14,457,307,004 | 131787 | 2480873 | 28/01/2011 | 108 | 249 | 62 | 419 | 292,845,329 | R12,839,469,321 | 114723 | 2376686 | 27/01/2011 | 205 | 151 | 71 | 427 | 336,066,238 | R17,152,910,483 | 113249 | 2506760 | 26/01/2011 | 195 | 145 | 82 | 422 | 359,240,196 | R15,525,381,478 | 113546 | 2153393 |
Spot Prices Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | JSE Overall | 17:00 | 31838.16 | 439.41 | 1.40% | JSE Top 40 | 17:00 | 28625.33 | 479.99 | 1.71% | JSE Gold | 17:00 | 2546.93 | 24.78 | 0.98% | JSE Financial | 17:00 | 21510.69 | 190.04 | 0.89% | JSE Industrial | 17:00 | 31232.13 | 276.53 | 0.89% | JSE Indust 25 | 17:00 | 25973.20 | 308.70 | 1.20% | JSE Resource | 17:00 | 57244.25 | 1199.49 | 2.14% | DJ Futures | 19:46 | 11970.00 | 132.00 | 1.12% | DJ Ind | 19:21 | 12017.64 | 125.71 | 1.06% | SP 500 | 19:42 | 1305.38 | 20.62 | 1.60% | Nasdaq | 19:42 | 2750.20 | 52.14 | 1.93% | FTSE 100 | 18:35 | 5957.82 | 94.88 | 1.62% | DAX | 19:00 | 7184.27 | 106.79 | 1.51% | CAC40 | 18:46 | 4072.62 | 67.12 | 1.68% | Nikkei | 08:26 | 10274.50 | 36.58 | 0.36% | Shanghai | 09:26 | 2799.40 | 9.58 | 0.34% | Hang-Seng | 10:32 | 23482.95 | 35.61 | 0.15% | All Ords | 07:36 | 4852.00 | 2.00 | 0.04% | NZSE 50 | 06:26 | 3348.46 | 9.72 | 0.29% |
| | Name | Time | RP | Move | % Move | Gold | 19:59 | 1341.65 | 9.46 | 0.71% | Gold/Rand | 19:58 | 9559.02 | -0.52 | -0.01% | Gold/R kg | 19:56 | 307501 | 967 | 0.32% | Silver | 19:59 | 28.5500 | .5050 | 1.80% | Platinum | 19:59 | 1820.75 | 25.25 | 1.41% | Palladium | 19:59 | 820.50 | 6.00 | 0.74% | R157 | 17:06 | 7.83 | -.05 | -0.63% | R204 | 17:06 | 8.46 | -.06 | -0.70% | Brent Crude | 19:56 | 101.40 | 1.42 | 1.42% | Rand / Dollar | 19:59 | 7.1227 | -0.0523 | -0.73% | Rand / Pound | 19:56 | 11.4720 | 0.0042 | 0.04% | Rand / Euro | 19:56 | 9.8538 | 0.0216 | 0.22% | Rand / NZD | 19:58 | 5.5666 | 0.0226 | 0.41% | Rand / AUD | 19:56 | 7.2320 | 0.0715 | 1.00% | Yen / Dollar | 19:57 | 81.3700 | -0.6800 | -0.83% | Euro / Dollar | 19:56 | 0.7228 | -0.0073 | -1.00% | Dollar / Euro | 19:59 | 1.3824 | 0.0134 | 0.98% | Pound / Dollar | 19:56 | 0.6191 | -0.0052 | -0.83% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
Index Summary Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Top 40 | 28,625.33 | 479.99 | 1.71% | Industrial | 31,232.13 | 276.53 | 0.89% | Mid Cap | 41,223.73 | -106.40 | -0.26% | Small Cap | 32,235.48 | -204.25 | -0.63% | Resource 20 | 57,244.25 | 1199.49 | 2.14% | Industrial 25 | 25,973.20 | 308.70 | 1.20% | Financial 15 | 8,160.12 | 90.79 | 1.13% | Financial & Ind. 30 | 29,479.64 | 376.81 | 1.29% | All Share | 31,838.16 | 439.41 | 1.40% | Oil & Gas | 26,607.13 | 298.33 | 1.13% | Mining | 37,834.19 | 845.20 | 2.29% | Gold Mining | 2,546.93 | 24.78 | 0.98% | Platinum Mining | 78.33 | .76 | 0.98% | Oil & Gas Producers | 14,306.16 | 160.40 | 1.13% | Basic Materials | 31,812.16 | 700.10 | 2.25% | Chemicals | 13,434.94 | 36.28 | 0.27% | Forestry & Paper | 13,897.85 | 384.72 | 2.85% | Industrial Metals | 29,388.14 | 481.45 | 1.67% | Industrials | 28,347.98 | -191.61 | -0.67% | General Industrials | 76,927.34 | 447.59 | 0.59% | Consumer Goods | 25,750.40 | 250.95 | 0.98% | Automobiles & Parts | 2,830.57 | .00 | 0.00% | Household Goods | 148.65 | 1 | 0.47% | Health Care | 31,575.62 | -125.41 | -0.40% | Beverages | 80,601.26 | 1527.49 | 1.93% | Food Producers | 47,577.74 | -178.31 | -0.37% |
| | Index Name | RP | Move | % Move | Personal Goods | 390.72 | .90 | 0.23% | Consumer Services | 51,009.10 | 434.89 | 0.86% | General Retailers | 37,961.26 | 17.94 | 0.05% | Travel & Leisure | 4,071.41 | 32.77 | 0.81% | Media | 83,504.13 | 1334.66 | 1.62% | Support Services | 2,503.49 | -23.20 | -0.92% | Telecommunications | 61,337.35 | 1282.23 | 2.14% | Financials | 21,510.69 | 190.04 | 0.89% | Banks | 40,281.44 | 136.83 | 0.34% | Non-life Insurance | 30,432.61 | 181.87 | 0.60% | Life Insurance | 16,033.37 | 409.15 | 2.62% | General Financial | 2,330.44 | 34.83 | 1.52% | Technology | 20,553.58 | 8.91 | 0.04% | SHARIAH TOP40 | 3,231.78 | 65 | 2.05% | FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL | 3,287.39 | 59 | 1.82% | COAL MINING | 20,646.05 | 324 | 1.59% | FTSE JSE Fledgling | 4,715.93 | -38 | -0.80% | FTSE/JSE Alt X | 1,112.98 | 4 | 0.34% | SA LISTED PROPERTY | 366.41 | | -1.15% | CAPPED PROPERTY | 306.58 | | -0.60% | RESOURCE | 31,494.18 | 660 | 2.14% | DIVIDEND PLUS | 168.33 | 0 | 0.24% | FTSE/JSE RAFI 40 | 6,672.06 | 107 | 1.63% | Capped Top 40 | 14,820.98 | 232 | 1.59% | Capped All Share | 15,977.10 | 212 | 1.34% |
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Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes** Code | Company Name | Status | Updated | JDG | JD GROUP LIMITED | HOLD | 28 Jan | SOL | SASOL LIMITED | BUY | 28 Jan | FSR | FIRSTRAND LIMITED | BUY | 27 Jan | NED | NEDBANK GROUP LTD | HOLD | 27 Jan | PAP | PANGBOURNE PROPERTIES LIM... | HOLD | 27 Jan |
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Results Expected** Expected | Company Name | Fin. Date | 31 Jan 2011 | CAPITAL | December 2010 (Final) | 02 Feb 2011 | GIJIMA | December 2010 (Interim) | 02 Feb 2011 | TOP FIX | December 2010 (Interim) | 04 Feb 2011 | GFIELDS | December 2010 (Q) | 04 Feb 2011 | GFIELDSP | December 2010 (Q) |
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Recent Dividends** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | FOORDCMPS | 11-01-20 | 11-02-04 | 11-02-14 | R 0.5385 | DIALOGUE | 11-01-13 | 11-02-18 | 11-02-28 | R 0.1238 | SBRJSEP11 | 10-12-15 | 11-03-04 | 11-03-15 | R 1.4100 | WINHOLD | 10-11-29 | 11-02-11 | 11-02-21 | R 0.1000 | UCS | 10-11-23 | 11-02-04 | 11-02-14 | R 0.0500 |
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Ex Div** Share Name | Dec-Date | LDT | Pay-Date | Amount | SBR003 | 10-11-05 | 11-01-28 | 11-02-07 | R 1.6000 |
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Upcoming AGMs** Code | Company Name | Date | Status | NPKP | Nampak Ltd | 01/02/2011 | Confirmed | NPP2 | Nampak Ltd | 01/02/2011 | Confirmed | IDQPB | Indequity Group Ltd | 01/02/2011 | Confirmed | IDQPA | Indequity Group Ltd | 01/02/2011 | Confirmed | IDQP | Indequity Group Ltd | 01/02/2011 | Confirmed |
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