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Welcome to the Sharenet Daily Equity Report
 Issue: 01 February 2011 20:00

Commoditie prices

These have been on the rise for some time now, due to both fundamental (supply and demand) and monetary (global money supply) reasons. Numerous macro and micro fundamental reasons come into play, including geopolitical issues such as political unrest in Egypt, weather issues experienced across the globe, which disrupt supply and strong demand from a growing China.

What are commodities?

These are essentially substances that come out of the ground and generally maintain a universal price. Typical is gold, copper and sugar.
A characteristic of a commodity is that its price is determined as a function of the market as a whole and with most commodities this includes both a spot price and a futures price.

While there are innumerable fundamental factors impacting prices, research has revealed that there is a significant negative relationship between commodity prices and interest rates across all commodity prices. I.e. lower real interest rates correlate with higher commodity prices.

There are various classifications of commodities, but for purposes of producing an index, the Commodity Research Bureau - CRB - segment commodities into 6 sub categories, each of which contains underlying constituents as follows.

• Energy, which includes crude oil, natural gas
• Grains, which includes corn, soybeans, wheat etc.
• Industrials copper and cotton etc.
• Livestock, comprising cattle and hogs etc.
• Precious metals, includes gold, platinum, silver
• Softs include cocoa, coffee, orange juice and sugar etc.

Jeremy Grantham from fund manager, GMO, made some comments on their thoughts on commodity prices.

“I fear that rising resource prices could cause serious inflation in some emerging countries this year. In theory, this could stop the progress of the bubble that is forming in U.S. equities. In practice, it is unlikely to stop our market until our rates have at least started to rise. Given the whiffs of deflation still lingering from lost asset values, the continued weak housing market, weak employment, and very contained labour costs, an inflationary scare in the U.S. seems a ways off.”

He goes on to say that “The complicating point is that in the recent few years, commodities seem to be making a paradigm shift. If this is so, it will be the most important paradigm shift to date. The bad news is that paradigm shifts cannot, by definition, be described well using history. It is all about judgment.”

The CRB index

Selected commodity prices, relative to the S&P500
Palladium, silver, Brent crude, gold, copper and platinum

The charts above clearly demonstrate the firm prices over the last 12 and 24 months.

So despite the very firm gains, we are likely to see more of the same in the year ahead. Naturally this is positive for a country such as South Africa which exports metals and some agricultural products, but at the same time the rise in oil and food prices is starting to come into the inflation numbers.

Kind regards

Ian de Lange
021 9144 966

Tue, 01 Feb 2011

South African stocks closed nearly 2 percent higher on Tuesday as mining, banking and telecom stocks rebounded, and as the market was boosted by firmer U.S. equities.  Full story
South Africa must hurry up and decide which city will bid to host the 2020 Olympic Games, the country's sports minister Fikile Mbalula said on Tuesday.  Full story
Ghana joined the club of oil-producing nations in December, offering it the chance to transform the fortunes of its aid-dependent economy.  Full story
A stretch of West Africa's coast spanning more than a dozen countries, the Gulf of Guinea is a growing source of oil, cocoa and metals to world markets.  Full story

15h44 South Africa's Sekoko Coal said on Tuesday it has signed a memorandum of understanding with power utility Eskom for the possibility. . .  Full story
14h41 South African black-owned property fund Dipula aims to list on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange this year as part of a fundraising. . .  Full story
13h09 South African maize futures ended mixed on Tuesday, while the most active wheat future closed lower, in line with international prices.. . .  Full story
11h04 South Africa's Purchasing Managers' Index gained to a seasonally adjusted 54.6 in January from 51.7 in December, a Kagiso Securities' survey. . .  Full story

Trading Statistics


Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 RA-HOLD  4256417.73.%385
2 URONE  492756813.03.%31606
3 OANDO  3493310.44.%8414
4 SECDATA  1101010.00.%6852
5 VERIMARK  170127.59.%58197
6 ROLFES  190137.34.%5000
7 MAS  950657.34.%1000
8 AMECOR  176116.67.%30131
9 MERAFE  164106.49.%6002993
10 BELL  1250736.20.%500
11 GOLDONE  227136.07.%280415
12 SACOIL  15996.00.%3152893
13 SAPPI  37881624.47.%1736842
14 SANLAM  28351154.23.%9323803
15 PALLINGHT  415153.75.%157040
16 ALTRON  28501003.64.%24864
17 AQUARIUS  41361413.53.%80245
18 ANGLO  3595011903.42.%4260639
19 FAMBRANDS  39001203.17.%21057
20 MVELAGRP  327103.15.%212136

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 TRADEH  560-240-30.00.%11240
2 SABVEST-N  601-79-11.62.%1400
3 AVUSA  2025-215-9.60.%451127
4 DAWN  780-60-7.14.%182010
5 GROUP-5  3035-176-5.48.%257960
6 SOVFOOD  650-35-5.11.%3125
7 WESIZWE  225-12-5.06.%697891
8 BLUETEL  599-31-4.92.%1819315
9 BAUBA  200-10-4.76.%11482
10 MRHLD  2965-145-4.66.%5059708
11 AVENG  3625-177-4.66.%7420283
12 HCI  7750-350-4.32.%79401
13 PNR-FOODS  5270-230-4.18.%102096
14 LITHA  235-10-4.08.%248645
15 HOWDEN  1040-40-3.70.%96800
16 JASCO  140-5-3.45.%3000
17 GBGOLD  1883-67-3.44.%355
18 PPC  3013-107-3.43.%2829558
19 RAUBEX  2099-71-3.27.%396738
20 ILIAD  750-25-3.23.%15702

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 URONE  4927515556813.03.%31606
2 SECDATA  1101101010.00.%6852
3 SANLAM  283528351154.23.%9323803
4 BILLITON  28000281006502.38.%3330258
5 EHSV  895091232002.29.%49253
6 MEDCLIN  29403121401.38.%285780
7 BARWORLD  70127080801.15.%387281
8 ITLTILE  42942940.94.%1540
9 CBH  3603840.18300

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 MRHLD  29652951-145-4.66.%5059708
2 YORK  380250-10-2.56.%17061
3 ESORFRANK  191184-5-2.55.%2315977

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Spot Prices
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0031838.16439.411.40%
JSE Top 4017:0028625.33479.991.71%
JSE Gold17:002546.9324.780.98%
JSE Financial17:0021510.69190.040.89%
JSE Industrial17:0031232.13276.530.89%
JSE Indust 2517:0025973.20308.701.20%
JSE Resource17:0057244.251199.492.14%
DJ Futures19:4611970.00132.001.12%
DJ Ind19:2112017.64125.711.06%
SP 50019:421305.3820.621.60%
FTSE 10018:355957.8294.881.62%
All Ords07:364852.002.000.04%
NZSE 5006:263348.469.720.29%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold/R kg19:563075019670.32%
Brent Crude19:56101.401.421.42%
Rand / Dollar19:597.1227-0.0523-0.73%
Rand / Pound19:5611.47200.00420.04%
Rand / Euro19:569.85380.02160.22%
Rand / NZD19:585.56660.02260.41%
Rand / AUD19:567.23200.07151.00%
Yen / Dollar19:5781.3700-0.6800-0.83%
Euro / Dollar19:560.7228-0.0073-1.00%
Dollar / Euro19:591.38240.01340.98%
Pound / Dollar19:560.6191-0.0052-0.83%

Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4028,625.33479.991.71%
Mid Cap41,223.73-106.40-0.26%
Small Cap32,235.48-204.25-0.63%
Resource 2057,244.251199.492.14%
Industrial 2525,973.20308.701.20%
Financial 158,160.1290.791.13%
Financial & Ind. 3029,479.64376.811.29%
All Share31,838.16439.411.40%
Oil & Gas 26,607.13298.331.13%
Mining 37,834.19845.202.29%
Gold Mining2,546.9324.780.98%
Platinum Mining78.33.760.98%
Oil & Gas Producers 14,306.16160.401.13%
Basic Materials 31,812.16700.102.25%
Chemicals 13,434.9436.280.27%
Forestry & Paper 13,897.85384.722.85%
Industrial Metals 29,388.14481.451.67%
Industrials 28,347.98-191.61-0.67%
General Industrials 76,927.34447.590.59%
Consumer Goods 25,750.40250.950.98%
Automobiles & Parts 2,830.57.000.00%
Household Goods148.6510.47%
Health Care 31,575.62-125.41-0.40%
Beverages 80,601.261527.491.93%
Food Producers 47,577.74-178.31-0.37%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Personal Goods 390.72.900.23%
Consumer Services 51,009.10434.890.86%
General Retailers 37,961.2617.940.05%
Travel & Leisure 4,071.4132.770.81%
Media 83,504.131334.661.62%
Support Services 2,503.49-23.20-0.92%
Telecommunications 61,337.351282.232.14%
Financials 21,510.69190.040.89%
Banks 40,281.44136.830.34%
Non-life Insurance 30,432.61181.870.60%
Life Insurance 16,033.37409.152.62%
General Financial 2,330.4434.831.52%
Technology 20,553.588.910.04%
SHARIAH TOP40 3,231.78652.05%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,287.39591.82%
COAL MINING20,646.053241.59%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 4,715.93-38-0.80%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,112.9840.34%
CAPPED PROPERTY 306.58-0.60%
RESOURCE 31,494.186602.14%
DIVIDEND PLUS168.3300.24%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 406,672.061071.63%
Capped Top 4014,820.982321.59%
Capped All Share15,977.102121.34%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
31 Jan 2011CAPITALDecember 2010 (Final)
02 Feb 2011GIJIMADecember 2010 (Interim)
02 Feb 2011TOP FIXDecember 2010 (Interim)
04 Feb 2011GFIELDSDecember 2010 (Q)
04 Feb 2011GFIELDSPDecember 2010 (Q)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
FOORDCMPS11-01-2011-02-0411-02-14R 0.5385
DIALOGUE11-01-1311-02-1811-02-28R 0.1238
SBRJSEP1110-12-1511-03-0411-03-15R 1.4100
WINHOLD10-11-2911-02-1111-02-21R 0.1000
UCS10-11-2311-02-0411-02-14R 0.0500
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
SBR00310-11-0511-01-2811-02-07R 1.6000

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
NPKPNampak Ltd01/02/2011Confirmed
NPP2Nampak Ltd01/02/2011Confirmed
IDQPBIndequity Group Ltd01/02/2011Confirmed
IDQPAIndequity Group Ltd01/02/2011Confirmed
IDQPIndequity Group Ltd01/02/2011Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
01/02/201117:45 BioScience Brands Limited - Change to the board
01/02/201117:30MND/MNP - Mondi Limited/Mondi plc - Notification of Major Interests in Shares
01/02/201117:15 PSG Group Limited - Dealing in securities by the PSG Group Limited
01/02/201117:06 RGT Smart Market Intelligence Limited - Results of the General Meeting
01/02/201117:05 Imperial Holdings Limited - Further trading statement
01/02/201117:04 Palabora Mining Company Limited - Change to the board of directors
01/02/201117:02 African Eagle Resources plc - MWB Limited Increases Shareholding
01/02/201116:48 Sovereign Food Investments Limited - Finalisation announcement regarding
01/02/201116:14 Bonatla Property Holdings Limited - Acquisition of shares in a Charcoal
01/02/201116:03 Eastern Platinum Limited - Final credit approval received for US$100
01/02/201115:58 Andulela Investment Holdings Limited - Acquisition by Andulela of the
01/02/201115:56 Vox Telecom - Posting of annual report and notice of annual general
01/02/201115:30 Dialogue Group Holdings Limited - Change in board membership
01/02/201115:15 Blue Financial Services Limited - Trading Update
01/02/201115:01 Nampak Limited - Results of the 43rd Annual General Meeting
01/02/201115:00 Lonmin Plc - Total Voting Rights and Capital as at 31 January 2011
01/02/201114:55 Dialogue Group Holdings Limited - Disposal of ContinuitySA (Proprietary)
01/02/201113:35 Group Five Limited - Response to Competition Commission announcement
01/02/201113:11 Africa Cellular Towers Limited - Changes to the board of directors
01/02/201113:05BAW/BAWP - Barloworld Limited - Appointment of company secretary
01/02/201113:00 Anglo American plc - Total voting rights
01/02/201112:40THEE - The Competition Commission - Competition Commission invites construction
01/02/201112:00 Capital Shopping Centres Group Plc - Notification of major interests in
01/02/201110:30 Mustek Limited - Disposal by Rectron Holdings Limited ("Rectron") of
01/02/201110:18 Spanjaard Limited - Dealings by a director
01/02/201109:27 BHP Billiton PLC - Total voting rights and capital
01/02/201109:17BIPINF - Bips Government Inflation Linked Bond Fund - Listing of additional Bips
01/02/201109:03ARHP - Anglorand Holdings Limited - Declaration of dividend
01/02/201108:46 Capitec Bank Holdings Limited - Dealing in securities by directors and/or
01/02/201108:23 AFGRI Limited - Acquisition of Rossgro Chickens (Pty) Limited - Further
01/02/201108:00GLD - NewGold Issuer Limited - Partial de-listing of Newgold Debentures
01/02/201108:00 Merafe Resources Limited - Production report for the year ended 31
01/02/201108:00GEN - General - Debt Listings Requirements
01/02/201107:05 BHP Billiton PLC - Transaction in shares

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