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 The Sharenet Daily 
Tuesday, 30 August 2011 - 20:00
Top News
SA Business
Company News
Company Results
World Markets (Spot Prices)
JSE Today
JSE Trading Statistics
Major Moves
Index Summary
Latest Consensus Changes / Results Expected
Recent Dividends / Ex Div
Upcoming AGMs
Stock Exchange News Service (SENS)

Behavioural Finance

With the turmoil in markets in the second week of August, both locally and abroad, one has to ask the question why common sense and rationality often does not prevail in markets.

The Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) states that market prices reflect all available information, and that it is impossible to outperform the market consistently on a risk-adjusted basis. Whenever new information becomes available in the public domain, EMH proposes that a share’s price will quickly adjust to a new level implied by the underlying value of the share, given this new information. However, it is clear that as soon as humans and financial markets start interacting, EMH often does not hold at all!

The field of behavioural finance tries to examine and explain why we sometimes make irrational and incorrect choices when faced with financial decisions. Some of the more interesting observations in this field are:

Anchoring and Adjustment: When required to value a certain asset, most people start with an initial estimate and then adjust their answer away from this anchor. A good example may be a car advertised in the local newspaper for a certain amount, or “nearest cash offer”. The advertised price will immediately influence buyers’ valuation of the car, even though the anchor may be ridiculously high! In the investment environment it is prudent to distance oneself from unrealistic anchors observed in the market. Valuations are often driven up by fellow investors’ exuberance, and prices start to deviate too far from the underlying values. When investing for value as opposed to growth, be certain that the fundamentals of the proposed investment are sound!

Framing: In a past study an audience were asked either how “long” or how “short” the movie they saw was. The average answer to the first question was 2 hours and ten minutes, and to the second question only 1 hour and 40 minutes! In the financial sphere questions can often be framed either in terms of gains or losses, and the specific wording can have a big impact on the decision made. We feel the pain of a loss more intensely than the joy of a gain, and as a result we may be more risk-seeking when faced with potential losses in order to try and avoid the pain.

Status Quo bias: People often have a preference for maintaining their current situation and avoiding possible changes, despite all evidence and advice pointing in a different direction. An example might be an investor being invested in a specific fund for a very long time, and then being too foolhardy or sluggish to pull out when things take a turn for the worse.

Confirmation bias: Many investors start off with a certain view on a specific asset class or fund, and then hunt for evidence to support that view. Evidence not supporting the original view will merely be dismissed or not valued highly enough. With the wealth of data, ratios, and performance analysis tools out there, it is often said that almost any view can be supported by just discovering the right statistics. Always make sure that an asset’s value is supported by healthy fundamentals when faced with statistics and past figures that paint a very rosy picture.

At Seed we realise that investors driving markets are often irrational, and the challenge is to focus on our established methods of asset class valuations and manager research throughout the market cycle. The human factor will always be present in our decision-making process, but being aware of the factors mentioned above enables us to constantly improve our investment processes and research.

To sign up to Seed's newsletter (which includes weekly investment reports, fund fact sheets, market overviews, and more) click here and enter your details. For regular updates on investment and economic news visit our Facebook Fan Page by clicking here and 'Liking' our page.

Kind regards,

Cor van Deventer
021 9144 966

Tue, 30 Aug 2011
Top News
South Africa's economic growth figures for the second quarter were disappointing, but hopefully, the economy could still grow by more than three percent this year, said Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan.  Full story

Revenue increased to R8.6 billion (2010: R7 billion). Operating profit rose to R552.3 million (2010: R519.7 million), while total comprehensive income for the period grew to R383.9 million (2010: R355.5 million). Furthermore, headline earnings per share was higher at 132.7cps (2010: 120.4cps  Full story
Libya's interim leader on Tuesday gave forces loyal to deposed ruler Muammar Gaddafi a four-day deadline to surrender towns still under their control or risk a military showdown.  Full story
Protesters across Syria demanded President Bashar al-Assad's removal after prayers marking the end of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, defying tanks and troops besieging many cities and towns, activists and residents said.  Full story
National Guard and firefighters rescued hundreds people from record flooding in New Jersey Tuesday and Vermont planned to airlift food and water to inland towns cut off by Hurricane Irene after its paralyzing rampage through the U.S. northeast.  Full story
SA Business
More than 200,000 South African municipal workers who walked off the job two weeks ago demanding an 18 percent salary rise, will return to their posts on Wednesday while negotiations continue, a union spokesman said.. . .  Full story
The rand hit a three-week high on Tuesday as commodity currencies globally held on to gains from upbeat investors, while bonds are likely to firm if second quarter GDP data shows the economy is in deeper trouble than forecast.. . .  Full story

South Africa's economy grew at its slowest pace in almost two years in the second quarter as the manufacturing and mining. . .  Full story
Miner First Uranium narrowed its quarterly loss on Tuesday as higher gold prices outweighed rising operating costs at the company's two. . .  Full story
South Africa's Solidarity trade union said on Tuesday it was declaring a wage dispute with state power utility Eskom and was. . .  Full story
Impala Platinum (Implats), the world's second largest platinum producer, said on Tuesday it has stopped work at one of the shaft. . .  Full story

South Africa's Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) will this week woo stock listings from a growing number of Australian mining companies searching. . .  Full story
South Africa exported 67,657 tonnes of white maize last week compared with 5,643 tonnes in the previous week, the South African. . .  Full story
South Africa's Treasury sold 1.1 billion randworth of the 2017 bond and 1 billion rand of the 2031 issue on Tuesday.. . .  Full story
Kenya's CFC Insurance Holdings said rising bond yields and a sliding stock market posed a challenge after reporting a 75 percent. . .  Full story
Company News
Ordinary shareholders of BCX ("ordinary shareholders") and "A" ordinary shareholders of BCX (""A" shareholders") (collectively referred to as "shareholders") are referred. . .  Full story
Fiuranium announced the successful conclusion of the MWS Technical Completion Test, as defined in the MWS Gold Purchase Agreement. The Technical. . .  Full story
Shareholders are advised that at the general meeting held today, Tuesday, 30 August 2011, the special resolutions in terms of Section. . .  Full story
Shareholders were advised that there has been a change with regard to the audited results for the year ended 28 February. . .  Full story

Holders of ordinary shares in the company are advised that Investec Bank Ltd ("IBL") has acquired shares in the open market. . .  Full story
Shareholders are advised that Spur Corporation has entered into negotiations regarding a possible acquisition, which if successfully concluded, may impact on. . .  Full story
Shareholders are referred to the cautionary announcement dated Thursday, 4 August 2011, in which shareholders were advised that Cadiz had entered. . .  Full story
Shareholders were advised that Great Basin has appointed Sasfin Capital, a division of Sasfin Bank Ltd, as its sponsor with effect. . .  Full story
Company Results
Revenue rose by 7.9% to R118.5 billion (R109.8 billion). Gross income increased by 6.7% to R24.6 billion (R23 billion). Operating profit. . .  Full story
Revenue improved to R2.6 billion (R2 billion) and net operating profit also rose to R292.7 million (R148.7 million). However, a loss. . .  Full story
Revenue increased to R8 651 million (2010: R7 797 million), while operating profit declined slightly to R1 610 million (2010: R1. . .  Full story
Turnover rose to R1.5 billion (R1.4 billion) and gross profit improved by 10% to R626 million (R570 million). Operating profit gained. . .  Full story
World Markets (Spot Prices)
NameTimeRPMove% Move
JSE Overall17:0030365.1372.370.24%
JSE Top 4017:0027097.7548.510.18%
JSE Gold17:002656.3927.721.05%
JSE Financial17:0021119.63-163.55-0.77%
JSE Industrial17:0032095.00188.040.59%
JSE Indust 2517:0026991.78166.950.62%
JSE Resource17:0049438.46179.990.37%
DJ Futures19:5611500.00-11.00-0.10%
DJ Ind19:4111525.13-14.12-0.12%
SP 50019:561207.43-2.65-0.22%
FTSE 10017:355268.66138.742.70%
All Ords08:374341.407.700.18%
NZSE 5007:463317.7322.100.67%
NameTimeRPMove% Move
Gold/R kg19:56415799106102.62%
Brent Crude19:56114.421.201.06%
Rand / Dollar19:587.08020.03330.47%
Rand / Pound19:5511.5058-0.0358-0.31%
Rand / Euro19:5510.2102-0.0242-0.24%
Rand / NZD19:576.02880.05941.00%
Rand / AUD19:557.55800.03250.43%
Yen / Dollar19:5876.7000-0.1300-0.17%
Euro / Dollar19:550.69320.00450.65%
Dollar / Euro19:581.4421-0.0093-0.64%
Pound / Dollar19:550.61340.00440.72%

Click here for the Sharenet Spot Price page
The JSE Today
Trading Statistics

Major Moves Up
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 FREEWORLD  950809.20.%69
2 PUTPROP  600509.09.%3000
3 ONELOGIX  140107.69.%19640
4 PHUMELELA  1119696.57.%1000
5 AQUARIUS  29001505.45.%141088
6 GBGOLD  1475745.28.%4600
7 ELLIES   20094.71.%39175
8 HOWDEN  1400503.70.%93000
9 DRDGOLD  383133.51.%1130553
10 FAMBRANDS  42701403.39.%62532
11 MIXTEL  13443.08.%43000
12 WOOLIES  35231043.04.%18042612
13 PBT  13942.96.%50000
14 WESIZWE  17452.96.%1627099
15 TSOGO-SUN  1650472.93.%336
16 KELLY  370102.78.%141034
17 EASTPLATS  578152.66.%10
18 BAUBA  22052.33.%26000
19 PALLINGHT  31472.28.%130000
20 TFG  92902002.20.%694839

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Major Moves Down
SharenameSaleMove% MoveVolume
1 WILDRNESS  425-40-8.60.%1852
2 CADIZ  270-20-6.90.%165762
3 ROLFES  205-15-6.82.%29246
4 COAL  750-40-5.06.%441973
5 DAWN  475-25-5.00.%71111
6 BRIMSTON  860-40-4.44.%7170
7 AFRO-C  177-8-4.32.%11308
8 VERIMARK  154-6-3.75.%130209
9 TRADEH  581-19-3.17.%2660
10 PETMIN  276-8-2.82.%101660
11 NEDCOR  14092-399-2.75.%1208947
12 RAUBEX  1290-35-2.64.%3151373
13 AFRIMAT  370-10-2.63.%500
14 JUBILEE  192-5-2.54.%57861
15 ALTRON-P  2405-52-2.12.%29022
16 TRENCOR  3425-65-1.86.%8313
17 FAIRVEST  112-2-1.75.%15000
18 ABSA  13568-242-1.75.%843944
19 AMA  176-3-1.68.%66545
20 RMIH  1249-21-1.65.%1323541

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New Highs
SharenameSaleHighMove% MoveVolume
1 HOWDEN  14001410503.70.%93000
2 WOOLIES  352335231043.04.%18042612
3 MASSMART  15675158343252.12.%600485
4 SHOPRIT  10641107001211.15.%1672708
5 GROWPNT  18831935-12-0.63.%17954130

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New Lows
SharenameSaleLowMove% MoveVolume
1 RAUBEX  12901290-35-2.64.%3151373

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Index Summary
Index NameRPMove% Move
Top 4027,097.7548.510.18%
Mid Cap41,091.14235.280.58%
Small Cap31,095.94112.900.36%
Resource 2049,438.46179.990.37%
Industrial 2526,991.78166.950.62%
Financial 157,902.91-73.51-0.92%
Financial & Ind. 3029,980.7815.440.05%
All Share30,365.1372.370.24%
Oil & Gas 24,717.69492.732.03%
Mining 32,539.7541.370.13%
Gold Mining2,656.3927.721.05%
Platinum Mining65.68.150.23%
GENERAL MINING7,948.48-12.47-0.16%
Oil & Gas Producers 13,290.25264.942.03%
Basic Materials 27,534.1729.570.11%
Chemicals 12,571.63-53.53-0.42%
Forestry & Paper 12,585.89-127.20-1.00%
Industrial Metals 27,521.20156.090.57%
Industrials 26,646.7380.530.30%
General Industrials 74,326.83186.250.25%
Consumer Goods 26,637.4083.670.32%
Automobiles & Parts 3,577.84-33.97-0.94%
Household Goods142.4821.58%
Health Care 32,606.05184.930.57%
Beverages 86.11-.36-0.42%
Index NameRPMove% Move
Food Producers 47,986.26123.040.26%
Personal Goods 393.414.891.26%
Consumer Services 53,281.00821.831.57%
General Retailers 44,563.74704.121.61%
Travel & Leisure 3,579.1350.731.44%
Media 78.321.451.89%
Support Services 2,228.3716.150.73%
Telecommunications 68,441.45318.640.47%
Financials 21,119.63-163.55-0.77%
Banks 39,755.45-405.62-1.01%
Non-life Insurance 31,681.44397.691.27%
Life Insurance 15,249.62-89.22-0.58%
General Financial 2,145.30-6.41-0.30%
Technology 22,268.00-109.36-0.49%
SHARIAH TOP40 2,939.73110.38%
FTSE/JSE SHARIAH ALL3,005.38110.38%
COAL MINING24,328.442451.02%
FTSE JSE Fledgling 4,428.15-19-0.43%
FTSE/JSE Alt X 1,100.5980.76%
CAPPED PROPERTY 316.40-0.60%
RESOURCE 27,354.871020.38%
DIVIDEND PLUS165.4110.37%
FTSE/JSE RAFI 406,305.2620.03%
Capped Top 4014,242.66320.23%
Capped All Share15,336.47400.26%

Click here for the Sharenet Index Summary page
Latest Consensus Changes**
CodeCompany NameStatusUpdated
Results Expected**
ExpectedCompany NameFin. Date
31 Aug 2011ARMJune 2011 (Final)
31 Aug 2011DIAMONDCPJune 2011 (Interim)
31 Aug 2011LIATHJune 2011 (Interim)
31 Aug 2011M-R-HLDJune 2011 (Final)
31 Aug 2011MASMay 2011 (Q)

Recent Dividends**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
BIDVEST11-08-2911-09-1611-09-26R 2.5500
SUNINT11-08-2911-09-1611-09-26R 1.2000
DRDLD11-08-2911-10-0711-10-17R 0.0750
HOWDEN11-08-2611-09-0911-09-19R 0.2000
MUSTEK11-08-2611-09-2311-10-03R 0.1700
Ex Div**
Share NameDec-DateLDTPay-DateAmount
PALAMIN11-08-0111-08-2611-09-05R 9.3100
STANBANK-P11-08-1111-08-2611-09-05R 3.1241
LIB-HOLD11-08-0411-08-2611-09-05R 1.8200
RESILIENT11-08-1011-08-2611-09-05R 1.0936
GFIELDS11-08-1111-08-2611-09-05R 1.0000

Upcoming AGMs**
CodeCompany NameDateStatus
TKGBTelkom SA Ltd30/08/2011Confirmed
TKGATelkom SA Ltd30/08/2011Confirmed
TKGTelkom SA Ltd30/08/2011Confirmed
WKFWorkforce Holdings Ltd31/08/2011Confirmed
ERBPErbacon Investment Holdings Ltd31/08/2011Confirmed

Stock Exchange News Service
30/08/201117:49 KayDav Group Limited - Unaudited Interim Results for the six months ended
30/08/201117:49 Truworths International Limited - Director`s Dealings
30/08/201117:43 Village Main Reef Limited - Production resumes at the Tau Lekoa Gold Mine
30/08/201117:40 1time - Trading Statement
30/08/201117:35FFA/FFB - Fortress Income Fund Limited - Dealing in securities
30/08/201117:22 Sovereign - Change to the board of Directors
30/08/201117:15 Rainbow Chicken Limited - Abridged group audited results for the 15 months
30/08/201117:00 Protech Khuthele Holdings Limited - No change statement and notice of
30/08/201116:51ZGOVI - ZSHARES GOVI - Withdrawal of ZGOVI participatory interests
30/08/201116:50ZGOVI - Zshares GOVI - Distribution announcement
30/08/201116:48 Universal Industries Corporation Limited - Posting of circular and
30/08/201116:47 Rebosis Properties Limited - Dealing in securities
30/08/201116:35OML - Old Mutual Plc - Form 8.3
30/08/201116:34OML - OLD MUTUAL plc - Form 8.3
30/08/201116:33 Mazor Group Limited - Closed period share Repurchase Programme
30/08/201116:30 Woolworths Holdings Limited - Dealing in securities by directors
30/08/201116:10 Labat Africa Limited - Cautionary announcement
30/08/201115:54 Exxaro Resources Limited - Trading of Exxaro ordinary shares on
30/08/201115:20SCIB/GRTSIG - The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited - Distribution
30/08/201115:18BCX - Business Connexion Group Limited - Confirmation of the discontinuation of
30/08/201115:00 Datatec Limited - Dealing in securities by the company secretary
30/08/201114:52 First Uranium Corporation - First Uranium announces successful
30/08/201114:29 Basil Read Holdings Limited - Cautionary announcement
30/08/201114:16 Sallies Limited - Trading statement
30/08/201113:23 Convergenet Holdings Limited - Director`s dealings in securities
30/08/201113:22 Massmart Holdings Limited - Notification of Director`s dealing in
30/08/201112:39 Morvest Business Group Limited - Results of the General Meeting
30/08/201112:12TFS86 - Toyota Financial Services (South Africa) (Proprietary) Limited- New
30/08/201112:11TOPDWI - Deutsche Bank AG - Notice : Termination of listing - TOPDWI -
30/08/201112:10TOPDWG - Deutsche Bank AG - Notice : Termination of listing - TOPDWG - Index
30/08/201112:03 Andulela Investment Holdings Limited - Update on the acquisition by
30/08/201112:02 Colliers South Africa Holdings Limited - Change statement and notice of
30/08/201111:28 Clicks Group Limited - Dealing in securities by director
30/08/201111:01INL/INP - Investec Limited/Investec plc - Form 8 (DD)
30/08/201111:00INL/INP - Investec Limited/Investec plc - Form 8 (DD)
30/08/201110:31INL / INP - Investec Limited / Investec plc - FORM 8 DD
30/08/201110:30INL/INP - Investec Limited/Investec plc - Form 8 (DD)
30/08/201110:16 Infrasors Holdings Limited - No change statement and notice of Annual
30/08/201110:16 Vox Telecom - Acquisition of Ordinary Shares by Investec Bank Limited
30/08/201110:14 Shoprite Holdings Limited - Dealings in Securities
30/08/201110:00 Spur Corporation Limited - Cautionary announcement
30/08/201110:00 Real Africa Holdings Limited - Profit and dividend announcement for the
30/08/201109:50INL/INP - Investec Limited/Investec plc - Disclosure in accordance with Rule
30/08/201109:49BIIND - iNdwa Investments Limited - Llististing of New Financial Instrument
30/08/201109:37 Cadiz Holdings Limited - Unaudited pro forma financial effects of BNP
30/08/201109:14NRA028 - The South African National Roads Agency Limited -New Financial
30/08/201109:12 Great Basin Gold Limited - Appointment of a new sponsor
30/08/201109:05 Capital Property Fund - Disposal of retail properties
30/08/201109:05FFA/FFB - Fortress - Proposed Acquisition of a Portfolio Of Retail Properties
30/08/201109:05 Resilient Property Income Fund Limited - Acquisition of Boardwalk
30/08/201109:00 Real Africa Holdings Limited - Expression of interest by Sun International
30/08/201108:03BIFR1 - FirstRand Bank Limited - New Financial Instrument Listing - Amendment to
30/08/201107:42 BHP Billiton Plc - Notification of Change of Interests of Directors and
30/08/201107:40 BHP Billiton Plc - Notification of Change of interests of persons
30/08/201107:36 BHP Billiton Plc - Notification of Change of Interests of Persons
30/08/201107:34 BHP Billiton Plc - Notification of change of interests of persons
30/08/201107:33 BHP Billiton Plc - Notification of Change of Interests of Persons
30/08/201107:31 BHP Billiton Plc - Notification of Change of Interests of Directors and
30/08/201107:29 BHP Billiton Plc - Notification of change of interests of persons
30/08/201107:28 BHP Billiton Plc - Notification of Change of Interests of Persons
30/08/201107:21 BHP Billiton Plc - Notification of Change of Interests of Directors and
30/08/201107:20 BHP Billiton Plc - Notification of change of interests of directors and
30/08/201107:17 Gold One International Limited - Appendix 3B
30/08/201107:16 Gold One International Limited - Interim Financial Report - six months
30/08/201107:06 Gold One International Limited - Appendix 4D half year report
30/08/201107:05 Gold One International Limited - Half-year report for the six months
30/08/201107:05 Italtile Limited - Preliminary profit announcement and reviewed group

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