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HARMONY GOLD MINING COMPANY LIMITED - Golpu feasibility study confirms robust investment case

Release Date: 15/02/2016 07:05:00      Code(s): HAR       PDF(s):  
Golpu feasibility study confirms robust investment case

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
Registration number 1950/038232/06
Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa
ISIN: ZAE000015228
JSE share code: HAR
(“Harmony” and/or “the Company”)


Golpu feasibility study confirms robust investment case

-   High grades, early cash flow
-   Staged development with future optionality and flexibility
-   Robust returns
-   Lowest quartile costs for copper
-   Significant attributable annual production for Harmony at
    approximately 500 000 gold equivalent ounces per year during peak
    production


Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (“Harmony”) is pleased to announce
the results of the Golpu Stage 1 Feasibility1 and Stage 2 Prefeasibility
studies   and    declare    updated   Resources     and   Reserves      for    the    Golpu
project. Both studies have confirmed a robust investment case – one
that supports proceeding with the project


“The Golpu porphyry is a world-class resource due to its size, high
grades,   long-life   and    low    operating   costs.    The   design    of    the    mine
allows optionality and flexibility to scale the operation up with a
relatively low capital investment in response to increasing commodity
prices. Golpu is part of Harmony’s future and will create value for our
shareholders in the long term”, says Harmony chief executive officer,
Peter Steenkamp.


The Stage 1 project capital on a 100% basis is estimated at US$2.6bn,
yielding an internal rate of return of 16%. The Stage 1 Feasibility
study justifies the development of twin exploration access declines,
with two proposed block caves designed to extract approximately 50% of
the   contained    metal    (gold   and   copper)   of    the   Golpu    reserve.       The
approximately 50% remaining reserve is to be extracted by a deeper
block cave (BC3) below block cave 2 (Stage 2). The common path mining
and processing infrastructure of Stage 1 will be utilised in support of
the development of Stage 2.



Engagement   with     key   stakeholders,       including       the   PNG    national
government, the Morobe provincial government, landowners and community
representatives     continues   so   as   to   ensure   clear    alignment    on   the
project objectives.


Key findings of the feasibility study2

 • Low operating costs will withstand low commodity price cycles and
   will benefit from high returns in higher commodity price cycles
 • The updated Ore Reserve as at 31 December 2015, is estimated to
   contain 5.5 million ounces of gold and 2.4 million tonnes of copper
   (Harmony’s 50% interest)
 • Project de-risked, with no significant deviation from the Stage 1
   prefeasibility study economic outcomes and technical recommendations
 • Golpu is amenable to “staged development”
    -     allows for optimising the capital efficiency
    -     progressively de-risks the project prior to further
   investments
 • Financial metrics3 of Stage 1:
- Net present value (NPV):    US$1.1bn
- Internal rate of return (IRR):    ~16%
- Maximum negative free cash flow (100% basis): US$1.8bn
 • Stage 1 targets higher-grade sections of the deposit thereby
   optimising free cash flow.
 • The development of the near surface block cave 1 (BC1), as part of
   Stage 1, affords early cash flow thereby reducing the maximum
   negative cash outflow
 • Block caving is the preferred mining method for the following
   reasons:
- ore body geometry and indicative rock mass characteristics are
   suited to block caving
- it is a high productivity, low operating cost underground mining
   method
 • The Golpu Stage 2 Prefeasibility study focused on optimising Stage 1
   and then expanding block cave 2 (BC2) throughput before the
   establishment of a third block cave (BC3) below BC2
 • The project is located in close proximity to the City of Lae with
   established infrastructure such as roads, marine port, airport, and
   light industry
• Studies conducted by WorleyParsons (South Africa) and other
  consultants under direct management of the joint venture project team
    -     more than 460 000 man hours worked on the latest studies

GOLPU STAGE 1 FEASIBILITY STUDY2

Stage 1 of the development of Golpu focuses on the development of two
block caves, BC 1 and BC 2 and all associated infrastructure required.
A third block cave, BC 3 is contemplated in Stage 2.


Refer to https://www.harmony.co.za/our-business/exploration/golpu-
project for Schematic 1: Cross section of Golpu porphyry4 -


 Summary of key metrics for Stage 1 (100%)3
                                                        Stage 1
 Area         Measure              Unit
                                                           FS
              First ore            Months from start
 Production                                            Month ~60
              milled5              of earthworks
              Steady-state         Months from start
                                                       Month ~90
              production5          of earthworks
              Ore mined and
                                   Mt                     149
              milled
              Life of mine         Years                  28
              Copper metal
                                   Mt Cu                  2.2
              produced
              Gold metal
                                   Moz Au                 3.6
              produced
              Peak Au
                                   koz pa                 297
              production
              Peak Cu
                                   kt pa                  135
              production
              Au recoveries        %                      70
              Cu recoveries        %                      94
 Capital      Project capital      USD billion            2.6
              Sustaining
                                   USD billion            1.6
              capital
              Total life of
                                   USD billion            4.2
              project capital
              Maximum negative
                                   USD billion            1.8
              cash flow
              Total operating
 Production                        USD/t                 30.66
              cost (real)
              Realisation cost     USD/t                 17.61
                   Cash cost6            USD/lb produced                  0.59
                   Total sustaining
                                         USD/lb produced                  0.89
                   production cost7
                   Total production
                                         USD/lb produced                  1.45
                   cost8
 Economic
             Gold price                  USD/oz                           1200
 Assumptions
             Copper price                USD/lb                           3.00
                   Exchange rates        AUD/USD                          0.80
                                         PGK/USD                          2.85
                   Discount rate
                                         %                                8.50
                   (real)
 Stage 1           Net present
                                         USD billion                      1.1
 Outcomes          Value
                   Internal rate of
                                         %                                ~16
                   return



The operating cost estimate covers all the operating expenditure to
mine,    treat   and   administer    extraction         of    the   orebody,     as    well   as
transporting, dewatering and ship-loading of the concentrate at the
Port of Lae. Cash cost and total production costs include treatment and
refining    charges,    freight     to   end       customers,       royalties    and    mining
levies.    Total    production    cost       includes    sustaining       and    construction
capital costs. The realisation cost estimate in the financial model
equals     U$17.61/t,    this     includes         treatment        and   refinery      costs,
concentrate transport and handling costs, and royalties and is not
included in the total operating cost.                        Any real, above inflation,
price escalation of costs to the time of forecast expenditure has been
excluded. Costs are however sourced and forecast in the underlying
currency in which they are incurred.



Additional information: BC1 and BC2

                                                                2016
Ore extracted                                 Metric            Feasibility
                                                                study

BC1 - tonnes                                  Mt                8
BC1 – gold grade                          g/t                0.99

BC1 – copper grade                        %                  2.00

BC2 - tonnes                              Mt                 143

BC2 – gold grade                          g/t                1.05

BC2 – copper grade                        %                  1.54



Key milestones9,10

The project will only progress into execution upon the grant of a
Special Mining Lease (SML) which will include all necessary permits,
approvals and consents required from the Papua New Guinea Government,
landowners and other relevant stakeholders. Assuming all such approvals
are     obtained,    the   development   timeline     outlined      in   the   Stage     1
feasibility study is set out below.


Refer      to       https://www.harmony.co.za/our-business/exploration/golpu-
project for Schematic 2: Development timeline



If signed prior to the grant of a SML, approval will be sought from the
Boards of both Wafi Golpu joint venture parties to bring forward the
advanced    exploration     work   and   earthworks    for    establishment     of     the
access    declines.     Advanced   exploration   via    underground       access     will
afford an opportunity to obtain further data at depth and as a result,
a revisit of the current proposed Stage 1 base case capital profile,
schedule and execution approach.


Further work on the Stage 1 Feasibility study


As planned the following areas will be the focus of further assessment
to optimise the study outcomes and the incorporation of additional data
which will be collected in the next study phase.
Access    declines:     Declines      towards        the   orebody    affording   drilling
platforms is required in order to verify geotechnical and hydrological
interpretations of the orebody at depth
Geotechnical interpretation: Further underground drilling and mapping
work     is   required       to     confirm     assumptions      of     the   rock     mass
characteristics in each cave and the rock mass response to the changing
stress regime.
Tailings management: Further assessment of tailings disposal options
Hydrology: The management of water will be central to the success of
the mining operation, primarily due to the nature of the geological
environment of the project site. Further investigation and modelling of
water will focus on increasing the confidence in the geohydrology model
by obtaining additional data from drilling campaigns, modelling the
effectiveness      of   a    dewatering       bore    field   around    the   block    cave
subsidence zone, and streamflow and surface hydrology modelling and
management
Permitting and environmental approvals: Work will continue with the PNG
Government    to    obtain        statutory    environmental     approvals    and     other
regulatory permits for the project
Port and power: Further assessment of optimal arrangements for port
facilities and power supply


Community engagement


In parallel with further technical studies and project definition, the
local communities will be actively engaged and appraised of the project
development roadmap and next steps. In the December 2015 quarter, 90
meetings attracting 2,756 local community participants were held.                      The
three major communities involved are the Hengambu, Yanta and Babuaf
spread over 15 villages in the region. The local communities remain
supportive of the project.


Capital costs
Harmony’s share (50%) of the estimated capital requirements for Stage 1
from grant of the Special Mining Lease are approximately as follows:


Refer       to   https://www.harmony.co.za/our-business/exploration/golpu-
project for Schematic 3: Harmony’s (50%) estimate capital requirements


GOLPU STAGE 2 PREFEASIBILITY STUDY


The Stage 2 pre-feasibility study was conducted in parallel to the
Stage   1   feasibility   study.   The   first   step   of   Stage       2   looked   at
debottlenecking     the    6Mtpa    capacity     from    Stage       1       BC2.     The
debottlenecking increased the production capacity to 7Mtpa by making
minor and low cost modifications to the process plant grinding circuit
and the underground material handling system. (Stage 2-1)


The access declines to the block caves in both the Stage 1 feasibility
study and Stage 2 pre-feasibility study were treated as common path
access imbedding optionality and flexibility in the designs to scale
the operation up with a relatively low capital investment in response
to increasing commodity prices.


The second step for Stage 2 is increasing the mine’s production rate.
By optimising all existing Stage 1 infrastructure and increasing the
size of the underground loader fleet a higher mining production output
from BC2 can be achieved, without a significant capital investment.                    A
second process plant with a capacity of 7Mtpa will be constructed to
bring total plant capacity to 14mtpa. (Stage 2-2)


The third and final stage investigated by the pre-feasibility study for
Stage 2 was to extend the life of the operation with the construction
of a third block cave below BC2. Additional capital is required to
extend the decline access and conveyor belt system, the ventilation
system and establish the associated underground infrastructure (Stage
2-3).
Refer to https://www.harmony.co.za/our-business/exploration/golpu-
project for Schematic 4: Staged development of Stage 1 and Stage 2


                                                         11,12,13
Prefeasibility Study key metrics for Stage 2 (100%)
 Description    Unit        Stage    Stage 2   Stage 2       Stage 2
                             1 FS    PFS 2-1   PFS 2-2       PFS 2-3
 Financials
 NPV*           USD M       1,087     1,240    1,338           1,954
                real
 IRR*           %            15.6     16.3      16.8            17.5
 Maximum        USD M       1,763     1,763    1,763           1,763
 negative
 cash flow
 (real)
 Free Cash      USD M        249       298       405            402
 Flow           real p.a.
 Generation*    steady
                state avg
 Schedule
 Ore            Mtpa          6         7        14                 14
 throughput*
 First ore      Date        FY2023   FY2023    FY2023         FY2023
 Life of Mine   years         28       25        18             35
 Production
 Ore mined*     Mt           149       153       155            379

 Cu Grade       %           1.58      1.58      1.57           1.26

 Au Grade       g/t         1.06      1.06      1.05           0.91

 Cu             kt          2,233     2,301    2,306           4,547
 Recovered*

 Cu Recovered   Ktpa LOM      80       92        128            130
                average
 Au             koz         3,573     3,527    3,509           7,058
 Recovered*

                koz pa       128       141       195            202
                LOM
 Au Recovered   average

 Capital
 expenses
 Project        USD M       2,640     2,656    2,656           2,656
 capital        real
 Expansion       USD M           -          10        572         1,261
 capital         real
 Sustaining      USD M         1,551       1,499     2,175        3,725
 and             real
 Expansion
 Capital

 Operating
 expenses
 Total           USD/t ore     30.66       28.12     24.16        23.95
 Operating       milled
 Cost

                 USD/lb Cu      0.59       0.55       0.44         0.60
                 real
                 LOM
 Cash Cost       average

*Cumulative

RESOURCE AND RESERVE UPDATE (100%)


Mineral Resource


The Golpu Mineral Resource has been updated as at 31 December 2015 to
align with the results of Golpu 2015 Stage 1 feasibility study and
Stage 2 (Life-of-Mine) prefeasibility study. The key change is the
applied cut-off grade that defines the volume with reasonable prospects
of   eventual   economic     extraction.    The    Golpu     Mineral   Resource   is
constrained within a marginal breakeven shell using WGJV 2015 gold and
copper revenues and the estimated long term cost structure developed in
the 2015 Golpu Stage 2 PFS. The December 2014 Mineral Resource was
reported within a 0.2% Cu shell representative of the revenue and cost
structures of the 2012 Golpu PFS. There has been no additional drilling
in 2015 that impacts the Golpu mineralised volume and the underlying
geology and grade model is unchanged from that used in the December
2014 Mineral Resource.


See the updated Resource table below:
Table 1: Current Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource (100%)
                   Metal
                                     Gold               Copper                    Silver             Molybdenum
                     >>
                   tonnes grade metal grade metal grade                              metal          grade       metal
                    Mt          g/t        Moz         %          Mt         g/t         Moz         ppm         kt
Total               820        0.70        18.6       1.0         8.6        1.3        33.1         90         74
Mineral
Resource
Measured             -           -          -          -           -          -           -           -          -
Mineral
Resource
Indicated           690        0.71        15.8       1.1         7.5        1.3        28.5         94         65
Mineral
Resource
Inferred
Mineral             140        0.63        2.8        0.85        1.2        1.1         4.6         72         9.7
Resource
Rounding in table may cause discrepancies.


Table    2:   Current          Mineral      Resource         compared         with       previous          estimate
(100%)
                     Metal
                                       Gold                  Copper                 Silver                Molybdenum
                       >>
                    tonnes       grade metal            grade      metal grade metal grade metal
                         Mt          g/t        Moz          %          Mt        g/t         Moz         ppm         kt
Previous
Mineral              1 080        0.59       20.2          0.87        9.4        1.09        37.5        94         100
Resource
This                     820      0.70       18.6          1.1         8.6        1.3         33.1        90          74
Mineral
Resource
Rounding in table may cause discrepancies


For full details of the Mineral Resource estimation basis refer to the
Appendix      on    the        Harmony      website          at    https://www.harmony.co.za/our-
business/exploration/golpu-project.


Ore Reserve
The Golpu Reserve is informed by the 2015 Stage 1 feasibility study and
prefeasibility study (Stage 2) of the Golpu project.


The updated Reserve is tabled below:




Table 1 – Current Ore Reserve
                                  Ore                 Gold                         Copper
                              tonnes          grade          metal        grade            metal
                                  Mt           g/t            Moz              %            Mt
Total Ore Reserve                 380         0.91           11.0         1.3%              4.8
Proved Ore Reserve                 -           -               -             -              -
Probable Ore Reserve              380         0.91           11.0         1.3%              4.8




The key changes to the December 2015 Ore Reserve relative to the 30
June 2015 Ore Reserve are primarily due to:
•   Revised    Operating    and    Sustaining         Capital        costs         following         the
    completion of the Stage 2 prefeasibility Study in December 2015
•   Application of updated Modifying Recovery Factors for Mining
•   Removal of Silver and Molybdenum from the estimate


Table 2 – Current Ore Reserve Compared With Previous Estimate (100%)


                     Ore          Gold          Copper               Silver          Molybdenum
                    tonne   grad       meta   grad     meta        grad   meta       grad       meta
                      s       e          l      e        l           e      l          e          l
                     Mt     g/t         Moz    %        Mt         g/t    Moz        ppm         kt
Previous Ore
                     450    0.86       12.4   1.2%     5.4         1.4     20         80         36
Reserve
This Ore
                     380    0.91       11.0   1.3%     4.8          -      -          -          -
Reserve
For full details of the Ore Reserve estimation basis refer to the
Appendix   on   the    Harmony   website   at   https://www.harmony.co.za/our-
business/exploration/golpu-project.


For full details of Harmony’s other Resources and Reserves please refer
to www.harmony.co.za.
Harmony updates its full Resources and Reserves statement on 26 October
2016 with the publication of the Integrated Annual Report.


PNG tax and project interest
• Company tax rate is 30%
• Mining royalty      2% of revenue less shipping and refining costs
• Interest withholding tax is 0% (approved resource projects only)
• PNG government retains the right to acquire up to 30% of the project
   up to the grant of the special mining lease
     - payment based on historical exploration expenditure
     - full equity participant thereafter


About the Golpu project


Harmony and Newcrest Mining Limited each currently own 50% of Golpu
through the Wafi-Golpu Joint Venture. The PNG Government retains the
right to purchase, for its pro-rata share of historical costs, up to a
30% equity interest in any mineral discovery at Wafi-Golpu, at any time
before the commencement of mining. If the PNG Government chooses to
take-up its full 30% interest, the interest of each of Newcrest and
Harmony will become 35%.


The Golpu deposit is located approximately 65km south-west of Lae in
the Morobe Province of PNG which is the second largest city in PNG and
will host Golpu’s export facilities. The proposed mine site sits at an
elevation of approximately 400 metres above sea level in moderately
hilly terrain and is located near the Watut River approximately 30km
upstream from the confluence of the Watut and Markham rivers.
Location of Wafi-Golpu


Refer    to    https://www.harmony.co.za/our-business/exploration/golpu-
project for Schematic 5: Map of Papua New Guinea




Footnotes in support of press release:
1
   Full feasibility study level is considered to be at ±15% accuracy.
2
   Findings are subject to the further feasibility work described above
to be undertaken.
3
   As timing for finalisation of PMDA is uncertain, valuation outcomes
are shown at the time of commencement of earthworks for the access
declines. Costs are based on 2016 real estimates. Neither the costs
nor cost escalation impacts prior to commencement of earthworks are
included in the valuation outcomes.          All numbers are based on
information derived from work undertaken for the Stage 1 feasibility
study and are subject to completion of the further feasibility study
work, investment approval, receipt of all necessary permits and
approvals and market and operating conditions and engineering. Refer to
the statement on last page in relation to forward looking statements.
All figures are at 100% ownership unless otherwise stated.
4
    Cave wireframes are a representation of the shape of economic draw of
mixed cave material from the Mineral Resource and not a cave excavation
shape
5
    Subject to Advanced Exploration Work.
6
   Includes gold credit and realisation costs
7
  Cash cost including sustaining capital
8
   Includes construction capital, sustaining capital and gold credits
9
   Timeline is indicative to prefeasibility study level
10
     Concentrator expected to achieve 3Mpta approximately three months
after BC1 first production then expanded at later date to accommodate
production from BC2 at 6mMpa
11
    Costs are based on 2016 real estimates.     All numbers are based on
information derived from work undertaken for the Stage 1 feasibility
study and are subject to completion of feasibility work, investment
approval, receipt of all necessary permits and approvals and changes to
market and operating conditions and engineering. Refer to the statement
on last page in relation to forward looking statements.
12
    As timing for finalisation of a PMDA is uncertain valuation outcomes
are shown at the time of the grant of the SML. Costs are based on 2016
real estimates. Neither the costs nor cost escalation impacts prior to
commencement of earthworks are included in the valuation outcomes.
13
    All prefeasibility study outcomes are shown on a Life of Mine basis
and are inclusive of Stage 1.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT

Safe Harbour Statement

This report contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of
the safe harbor provided by Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act
of 1934, as amended, and Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as
amended, with respect to our financial condition, results of
operations, business strategies, operating efficiencies, competitive
positions, growth opportunities for existing services, plans and
objectives of management, markets for stock and other matters. These
include all statements other than statements of historical fact,
including, without limitation, any statements proceeded by, followed
by, or that include the words “targets”, “believes”, “expects”, “aims”
“intends” “will”, “may”, “anticipates”, “would”, “should”, “could”,
“estimates”, “forecast”, “predict”, “continue” or similar expressions
or the negative thereof.

These forward-looking statements, including, among others, those
relating to our future business prospects, revenues and income,
wherever they may occur in this report and the exhibits to this report,
are essentially estimates reflecting the best judgment of our senior
management and involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could
cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the
forward-looking statements. As a consequence, these forward-looking
statements should be considered in light of various important factors,
including those set forth in this report. Important factors that could
cause actual results to differ materially from estimates or projections
contained   in   the   forward-looking   statements  include,   without
limitation: overall economic and business conditions in South Africa,
Papua New Guinea, Australia and elsewhere, estimates of future
earnings, and the sensitivity of earnings to the gold and other metals
prices, estimates of future gold and other metals production and sales,
estimates of future cash costs, estimates of future cash flows, and the
sensitivity of cash flows to the gold and other metals prices,
statements regarding future debt repayments, estimates of future
capital expenditures, the success of our business strategy, development
activities and other initiatives, estimates of reserves statements
regarding future exploration results and the replacement of reserves,
the ability to achieve anticipated efficiencies and other cost savings
in connection with past and future acquisitions, fluctuations in the
market price of gold, the occurrence of hazards associated with
underground and surface gold mining, the occurrence of labor
disruptions, power cost increases as well as power stoppages,
fluctuations and usage constraints, supply chain shortages and
increases in the prices of production imports, availability, terms and
deployment of capital, changes in government regulation, particularly
mining rights and environmental regulation, fluctuations in exchange
rates, the adequacy of the Group’s insurance coverage and socio-
economic or political instability in South Africa and Papua New Guinea
and other countries in which we operate.

For a more detailed discussion of such risks and other factors (such as
availability of credit or other sources of financing), see the
Company’s latest Integrated Annual Report on Form 20-F which is on file
with the Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as the Company’s
other   Securities  and   Exchange  Commission   filings.  The  Company
undertakes no obligation to update publicly or release any revisions to
these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances
after the date of this annual report or to reflect the occurrence of
unanticipated events, except as required by law.

Competent Person’s Statement

The information in this presentation that relates to the Golpu Mineral
Resources is based on information compiled by Mr Paul Dunham. Mr Dunham
is Principal Geologist, Ore Deposit Knowledge for Newcrest Mining
Limited. He is a full-time employee of Newcrest Mining Limited.
Newcrest is Harmony’s 50/50 Joint Venture Partner in the Wafi Golpu
Joint Venture.
The information in this presentation that relates to the Golpu Ore
Reserves is based on information compiled by Mr Pasqualino Manca. Mr
Manca is the Area Manager Mining – Golpu Project Feasibility Study and
a full-time employee of Newcrest Mining Limited.
Both are Members of The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy
and both have sufficient experience which is relevant to the styles of
mineralisation and types of deposits under consideration and to the
activity which they are undertaking to qualify as a Competent Persons
as defined in the JORC Code and SAMREC. Mr Dunham and Mr Manca consent
to the inclusion in this presentation of the matters based on the
information in the form and context in which it appears including
sampling, analytical and test data underlying the results
Mr Gregory Job, BSc, MSc, who has 27 years’ relevant experience and a
member of the Australian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (AusIMM),
is Harmony’s competent person for Papua New Guinea.
Mr Jaco Boshoff, BSc (Hons), MSc, MBA, Pr. Sci. Nat, MSAIMM, MGSSA is
Harmony’s lead competent person. Mr Boshoff who has 20 years’ relevant
experience, is registered with the South African Council for Natural
Scientific Professions (SACNASP) and is a member of the South African
Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (SAIMM).


Please refer to our website at https://www.harmony.co.za/our-
business/exploration/golpu-project for the appendix, the presentation
and a video in support of this release.
For more details contact:

Henrika Ninham
Investor Relations Manager
On +27 (0)82 759 1775

Marian van der Walt
Executive: Corporate and Investor Relations
+27(0) 82 888 1242


Johannesburg, South Africa
15 February 2016

Sponsor:
J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa Proprietary Limited

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