Take Advantage Of ZAR Weakness: Update

12 June 2018 | SA Views | Stephan Maritz

A couple of weeks ago we looked at how you can take advantage of ZAR weakness, and with the recent slump in the rand, we think it worthwhile to revisit our findings.

Below we look at the performance and the correlation of the overall Resources Index and the rand -  notice the correlation between a weakening rand and performance of the Resources Index:


Credit: Graph Provided by Sharenet Advanced Online Charts

Shares likely to do well in the current economic environment:

Top 10 Rand-hedges (% of Earnings earned offshore) are ranked for you below - contact us for the full list:


The SA resources counters often react quickly and are subject to stable commodity prices. As such,  we prefer AGL & BIL (Large cap, foreign-driven/priced, easy-to-trade, positive momentum).

Below is a breakdown of revenue per commodity:


ARI, S32 and EXX look attractive, have underperformed, and are showing positive earnings momentum and analyst following. This could also be included in longer-term views.

Below is a breakdown of revenue per commodity:


Analyst upside estimates:


General commodity outlook:

Bloomberg’s estimate for China’s CPI according to a May 2018 survey is 1.8%, and we expect this slight pickup in CPI to support the general Commodity trend.

Below is a comparison of China’s YoY (Year-on-Year) Inflation vs Thompson Reuters Commodity Index:

(Click image to enlarge)image6

Call us on 021 700 4815 to see how we can position your portfolio to take advantage of the weak Rand.


Stephan Maritz
Head of Trading and Portfolio Analyst 

Stephan heads up Sharenet’s trading desk and is a full-time trader and portfolio analyst, also responsible for equity research across industries. Stephan developed his passion for the markets while working in the Stockbroking division of Standard Bank and is especially passionate about CFD trading. Stephan studied at the University of Stellenbosch and completed a BComm Honours (Business Management) with a focus in Portfolio Management and Bonds. He has also passed the JSE Equity Trader’s Exam, RE5 (Representative) and RE1 (Key individual) Exams as well as the Registered Persons Exams (RPEs) in order to give advice on equities.

The information contained in this article is for informational purposes only and must not be regarded as a prospectus for any security, financial product or transaction. It is neither to be construed as financial advice nor to be regarded as a definitive analysis of any financial issue. Investors should consider this research/article as only a single factor in making their investment decision. We recommend you consult a financial planner/advisor to take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation and individual needs. The views and opinions (where expressed) in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Sharenet.