Last week’s GDP print for SA was a shocker and put a dose of realism back into the Ramaphoria sentiment. The 1Q2018 quarter-on-quarter decline was -0.55% or -2.2% annualised. The chart below shows for just how long SA has been underperforming just about all her peers and developed markets:
SA is paying the price of a decade of mismanagement and corruption under the Zuma administration, and it’s likely to take another full decade to unwind the damage. It’s our very own "lost decade" where we failed to capitalise and ride on the back of the global expansion and commodity boom. The below chart shows SA’s cumulative GDP growth compared to other OECD countries:
Things are likely to get tougher in the near future, as only 30% of the 42 OECD countries have leading economic data that is above water, which points to a definite slowdown in global economic growth which will impact SA. You can read about this at the latest RecessionALERT.com research note.
Dwaine van Vuuren
RecessionAlert, Sharenet Analytics
Dwaine van Vuuren is a full-time trader, global investor and stock-market researcher. His passion for numbers and keen research & analytic ability has helped grow RecessionALERT.com (US based) and PowerStocks Research (now Sharenet Analytics) into companies used by hundreds of hedge funds, brokerage firms, financial advisers and private investors around the world. An enthusiastic educator, he will have you trading and investing with confidence & discipline.