The City of Cape Town has released the latest water usage stats. The good news is that we continue to save as much as the previous week, even though we are short of the 450 million litres per day target. Personally, the City is being a bit naughty by not moving the Day Zero target date from last week’s 9th July. But we can forgive them - they are taking a more conservative 4-week consumption average in their projections.
As the chart below shows however, if you used the 3 or 2-week usage average (more likely scenarios in our opinion) then day zero moves out somewhat.
The projections above assume NO rainfall in the future which are also unlikely scenarios. You can see that after 30 April, rain starts falling and evaporation starts declining due to cooler weather and the usage curve becomes less steep and flattens out as a result. This is also likely to happen in 2018. From 30 June, usage actually reversed in 2017 as rainfall inflows exceeded usage and the same is likely (to a lesser or greater degree) in 2018.
Here is how this is likely to pan out, assuming we have at least the same rainfall as in 2017.
Day zero is averted but the real problem is we need to finish up at the end of the chart at 38%, the place we started on the left, or next summer we are in worse shape. This can only be averted if we reduce water usage more and get from the current 520 million litres per day to the targeted 450 million litres per day. It’s tough we know, but it’s just an additional 13% savings.
DATA FLASH shows occasional topical datapoints about the markets, economy or life.
Dwaine van Vuuren
RecessionAlert, Sharenet Analytics
Dwaine van Vuuren is a full-time trader, global investor and stock-market researcher. His passion for numbers and keen research & analytic ability has helped grow RecessionALERT.com (US based) and PowerStocks Research (now Sharenet Analytics) into companies used by hundreds of hedge funds, brokerage firms, financial advisers and private investors around the world. An enthusiastic educator, he will have you trading and investing with confidence & discipline.