The last four days have seen Bitcoin slowly inching higher, forming a pattern of higher lows. Volatility has been relatively low as the fight between the bulls and the bears rages around the diagonal resistance zone. On the 1-day chart below you can see how price action is moving back up towards the moving averages, where the EMA 8 has already been offering some resistance. A break above and close above the MA’s is required to turn this chart bullish. This occurred in the beginning of the month but was short lived as the bears gained control, helped by the Mt Gox trustee dumping a large amount of Bitcoin on the market.
One cause for concern is the formation of the double top (M-shape in price action). Should we not see price action break above the previous high, then this could be signal another downtrend. I am closely watching the diagonal resistance trendline, should this not hold on the 1-day chart then we could see a resumption of the downtrend.
Over the short term (4-hour candles) we can see that BTC price action is trading against the resistance zone of $9300. This off the back of yesterday’s breakout in the morning, followed by a sharp decline in price in the afternoon. The battle between the bulls and bears is raging. If price manages to close above the short and medium term moving averages, then a test of the MA50 could be on the cards. Despite volatility, we are seeing a formation of higher highs and higher lows over the short term, which is a bullish sign. Trading the short-term chart could be worthwhile.
To see the birds eye view of the Bitcoin market, I’ve drawn up a log-scale chart, using 1-day candles. On the chart below, you can see how BTC has found support at the red trendline below. Over 2017 (a bull market year), price action tested the lower support trendline of the channel numerous times. More recently, it tested this support at $6000 in mid Feb. Price action is coming close to this trendline once again, and stands to re-test it at $8000. This is a good chart to keep an eye on to maintain perspective.
Ethereum has continued to struggle against BTC, and over the last few days has tried to form a base from which to stage another up move. Currently it is trading around the MA50 looking for support. If this level does not hold then the previous support level seen yesterday could be the next stop.
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Ricki specializes in the field of wealth management with a focus on holistic financial planning. He has a keen interest in the investment fields of property, technology, precious metals and cryptocurrencies. Ricki also holds a Masters degree in Science from the University of Stellenbosch.
Important Risk Notice:
Crypto Currencies are not defined as securities in terms of the Financial Markets Act, 2012 (Act No. 19 of 2012). The regulatory standards that apply to the trading of securities, therefore, do not apply to virtual currencies. Because virtual currencies are not regulated, users are not protected and are at the risk of losing money. Transactions are also irreversible. The price of virtual currencies is based on investor sentiment and can rise rapidly, thus attracting investors looking for very high returns from investments. However, the prices of virtual currencies tend to be very volatile and can drop as quickly as they rise. This may encourage speculative behaviour, which in turn spurs more volatility. Financial risks are, therefore, limitless and claims cannot be made for such losses.