Views Article – Sharenet Wealth

Europe, Forex

CEE MARKETS-Forint rebounds, long-term yields fall after 1-week depo rate rise

(Updates with fall in Hungarian government bond yields) By Jason Hovet and Anita Komuves PRAGUE/BUDAPEST, Nov 25 (Reuters) – The forint bounced further from an all-time low on Thursday while long-term government bond yields fell after Hungary’s central bank raised its one-week deposit rate by 40 basis points to 2.9% as it fights rising inflation risks. The increase in the depo rate was the second in a week, coming after the bank raised its main base rate to 2.1% earlier this month. By 1416 GMT, the forint had firmed 0.81% on the day to 365.70 to the euro, off a session low near 368. “This (depo rate rise) will be enough to put out the fire, because the forint has been really singled out lately, but the international environment has to change really for the forint to be able to significantly firm,” a trader said. The forint touched an all-time low of 372 to the euro on Tuesday as central Europe’s currencies came under pressure from a strong U.S. dollar along with a surge in COVID-19 cases around Europe that caused concerns among investors about economic impacts. Hungarian government bond yields at the long end of the curve dropped about 20-25 basis points after the one-week rate hike, falling below yields on 3- and 5-year bonds and inverting the yield curve, two fixed-income traders said. “With so many rate hikes investors can expect lower inflation beyond 10 years from now, which means it could be worth buying the long-term bonds,” one FI trader in Budapest said. Another trader said the inverted curve could also be an anomaly resulting from low market liquidity thanks to a public holiday in the U.S.. The yield on the 5-year bond was about 4.37% while the 10-year yield was 4.28%. The 15-year yield was 4.24% while the yield on the 20-year bond was 4.14%. Elsewhere, the Polish zloty gained 0.26% and the Czech crown edged up 0.03%. Central banks around the region have started tightening policy in reaction to inflation spikes amid global supply chain problems and rising energy costs, as well as tight labour markets in central Europe. Polish central bank Governor Adam Glapinski told Interia website on Wednesday that recent rate hikes should help the zloty, which has touched 12-year lows. ** Hungary’s forint since 2008: CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1516 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previou Daily Change s bid close hm in 2021 EURCZK Czech <EURCZK= 25.4920 25.5000 +0.03 +2.89% = crown > % EURHUF Hungary <EURHUF= 365.700 368.670 +0.81 -0.81% = forint > 0 0 % EURPLN Polish <EURPLN= 4.6660 4.6780 +0.26 -2.29% = zloty > % EURRON Romania <EURRON= 4.9495 4.9495 +0.00 -1.71% = n leu > % EURHRK Croatia <EURHRK= 7.5230 7.5241 +0.01 +0.33% = n kuna > % EURRSD Serbian <EURRSD= 117.480 117.580 +0.09 +0.08% = dinar > 0 0 % Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previou Daily Change s close change in 2021 .PX Prague 1373.41 1371.32 +0.15 +33.71 00 % % .BUX Budapes 52542.2 52535.9 +0.01 +24.78 t 1 7 % % .WIG20 Warsaw 2233.23 2239.75 -0.29% +12.56 % .BETI Buchare 12603.1 12536.2 +0.53 +28.53 st 7 5 % % .SBITO Ljublja <.SBITOP 1253.60 1242.32 +0.91 +39.16 P na > % % .CRBEX Zagreb 2004.61 2000.63 +0.20 +15.25 % % .BELEX Belgrad <.BELEX1 812.33 812.47 -0.02% +8.51% 15 e 5> .SOFIX Sofia 625.65 621.07 +0.74 +39.80 % % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs change Bund in Czech spread Republi c CZ2YT= <CZ2YT=R 3.2380 0.0120 +398b +2bps RR 2-year R> ps CZ5YT= <CZ5YT=R 2.9220 -0.0440 +349b -3bps RR 5-year R> ps CZ10YT <CZ10YT= 2.7350 -0.0050 +298b +2bps =RR 10-year RR> ps Poland PL2YT= <PL2YT=R 3.0850 0.0060 +383b +1bps RR 2-year R> ps PL5YT= <PL5YT=R 3.5780 -0.0160 +414b +0bps RR 5-year R> ps PL10YT <PL10YT= 3.4690 0.0110 +371b +3bps =RR 10-year RR> ps FORWARD 3×6 6×9 9×12 3M interba nk Czech 4.34 4.32 4.16 3.18 Rep <PRIBOR= > Hungary 4.73 4.82 4.83 3.29 Poland 3.24 3.56 3.59 1.72 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ******************************************* ******************* (Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Anita Komuves in Budapest; editing by Uttaresh.V, Kirsten Donovan)

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