Views Article – Sharenet Wealth

Europe, Forex

Crown hits three-month-low as chip crunch hits sentiment

By Anita Komuves and Jason Hovet BUDAPEST/PRAGUE, Oct 22 (Reuters) – The Czech crown fell to a three-month-low on Friday as worries over the impact of the chip shortage on the country’s key car sector outweighed expectations of more interest rate hikes, trimming gains for the region’s top-performing currency. The crown edged 0.06% lower to 25.660 per euro, touching its lowest since the end of July. The currency has recently been supported by the central bank’s rate hikes, with a surprise 75 basis-point tightening in September. Prague stocks also fell, underperforming gains elsewhere in the region. “Autos production, an important part of the Czech economy, continued to suffer from the global chip shortages with the September data showing close to a 45%Y (year-on-year) decline in production,” Morgan Stanley said in a note. “Skoda announced that it will suspend production in the second half of October with chances of further suspensions until year-end.” The crown has led gains in central Europe this year on the back of monetary tightening but on Friday it failed to benefit from the prospect of further quick action by the Czech central bank to tame price growth. News the Czech National Bank (CNB) would renew from January the sale of income from its massive international reserves after a nine-year pause in the programme also did little to help the currency. “It is true that the CNB will start with sales cautiously … so the immediate impact for the crown isn’t big yet,” CSOB said. The Hungarian forint dipped 0.03% to 363.80 per euro, near six-month lows hit in the previous session. “U.S. yields keep rising, and the weakening of the dollar has halted, which is pressuring currencies in the entire region,” an FX-trader in Budapest said. The forint has weakened 1% since the central bank’s 15 basis-point rate hike on Tuesday that disappointed some investors who were betting on a faster pace of tightening in the face of accelerating inflation. The zloty slid 0.02% to 4.6030 per euro, remaining above the psychologically important 4.6 barrier against the euro after breaking through it in the previous session. On Friday, Polish rate setter Rafal Sura was quoted by state-run news agency PAP as saying he thought rates should return to pre-pandemic levels. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1146 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2021 EURCZK Czech <EURCZK= 25.6600 25.6450 -0.06% +2.22% = crown > EURHUF Hungary <EURHUF= 363.800 363.7000 -0.03% -0.30% = forint > 0 EURPLN Polish <EURPLN= 4.6030 4.6021 -0.02% -0.95% = zloty > EURRON Romanian <EURRON= 4.9465 4.9465 +0.00% -1.65% = leu > EURHRK Croatian <EURHRK= 7.5270 7.5253 -0.02% +0.27% = kuna > EURRSD Serbian <EURRSD= 117.480 117.5800 +0.09% +0.08% = dinar > 0 Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2021 .PX Prague 1330.31 1341.060 -0.80% +29.52 0 % .BUX Budapest 55321.8 55121.35 +0.36% +31.38 0 % .WIG20 Warsaw 2431.73 2427.35 +0.18% +22.57 % .BETI Buchares 12808.7 12751.15 +0.45% +30.63 t 4 % .SBITO Ljubljan <.SBITOP 1184.65 1182.08 +0.22% +31.50 P a > % .CRBEX Zagreb 2050.85 2046.49 +0.21% +17.91 % .BELEX Belgrade <.BELEX1 798.72 788.13 +1.34% +6.69% 15 5> .SOFIX Sofia 574.59 576.10 -0.26% +28.39 % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republic CZ2YT= 2-year <CZ2YT=R 2.6900 0.0030 +333bp +0bps RR R> s CZ5YT= 5-year <CZ5YT=R 2.6610 0.0160 +306bp -1bps RR R> s CZ10YT <CZ10YT= 2.5920 0.0100 +267bp -1bps =RR 10-year RR> s Poland PL2YT= 2-year <PL2YT=R 1.7940 -0.0410 +243bp -5bps RR R> s PL5YT= 5-year <PL5YT=R 2.3200 0.0450 +272bp +2bps RR R> s PL10YT <PL10YT= 2.7980 0.0470 +287bp +3bps =RR 10-year RR> s FORWARD 3×6 6×9 9×12 3M interba nk Czech 3.27 3.52 3.64 2.10 Rep <PRIBOR= > Hungary 2.66 3.05 3.30 2.00 Poland 1.63 2.08 2.43 0.70 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************** **************** (Additonal reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Alan Charlish in Warsaw Editing by Mark Potter)


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