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Views Article – Sharenet Wealth

Europe, Forex

Zloty hits 13-month low as CEE growth slows

* Poland, Hungary, Romania grow strongly in Q2 despite slowing * Czech Republic, Slovakia slowing faster as trade bites * Currencies stuck on weak footing, stocks down By Jason Hovet PRAGUE, Aug 14 (Reuters) – The Polish zloty fell to a 13-month low on Wednesday, drifting weaker in light trading as data showed the euro zone’s slowdown starting to put the brakes on central Europe’s faster growing economies. The region has continued to post solid growth as low domestic interest rates and wage growth fuel domestic demand and mitigate the effects of a slowdown in western European trading partners that is taking a toll particularly on the Czech Republic and also now Slovakia. But signs of central European economies starting to cool more added to poor market sentiment in the region, which has worsened this month amid growing global trade fears. On Wednesday, the zloty lost 0.4% to bid at 4.353 to the euro by 0944 GMT and the Czech crown fell 0.1% to 25.851, also just off a 2-1/2 month low. “We saw some risk-off flows yesterday and this week, so the zloty is just losing most, I guess, because of the proximity of the year’s (low),” a Warsaw-based dealer said, adding low liquidity just before a local holiday was helping to exaggerate moves. Polish growth has been more immune to western European troubles. The economy expanded 4.4% year-on-year in the second quarter, down from 4.7% in the previous quarter. Analysts, though, expect Poland and Hungary – where second-quarter growth eased to 4.9% from a 15-year high of 5.3% – to slow in the coming quarters as external demand woes become a bigger factor, which has been signaled by manufacturing surveys in recent months. Romania, which like Hungary, has seen a construction boom, grew 4.4% year-on-year last quarter. The Hungarian forint and Romania’s leu dipped nearly 0.1% on Wednesday. “So far, domestic demand has offset headwinds from the euro-zone,” Capital Economics economist Liam Peach said. “But there were signs towards the end of Q2 that export weakness was taking a heavier toll, particularly in Poland. “With the manufacturing PMIs for July falling sharply and Germany’s industrial recession intensifying in June, we expect the weak external backdrop to take a bigger toll on regional growth over the rest of 2019.” Germany’s economy posted a quarterly contraction in the April-June period, data on Wednesday showed. That bodes poorly for countries like the Czech Republic and Slovakia that are highly linked to the German car industry. Slovakia’s second-quarter growth widely missed the mark, according to data on Wednesday, with growth 1.9% year-on-year, well below a Reuters poll forecast of 3.3%. In the Czech Republic, where growth was clicking along above 4% just a year ago, the economy expanded by 2.7% in the last quarter. Stock markets in the region mostly slipped, led by a 0.9% drop in Budapest. A jump in software security firm Avast after strong quarterly earnings on Wednesday boosted Prague’s PX index. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1143 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previou Daily Change s bid close change in 2019 EURCZK Czech <EURCZK 25.8510 25.8285 -0.09% -0.56% = crown => EURHUF Hungary <EURHUF 323.420 323.230 -0.06% -0.72% = forint => 0 0 EURPLN Polish <EURPLN 4.3530 4.3351 -0.41% -1.46% = zloty => EURRON Romanian <EURRON 4.7215 4.7200 -0.03% -1.43% = leu => EURHRK Croatian <EURHRK 7.3880 7.3900 +0.03% +0.30% = kuna => EURRSD Serbian <EURRSD 117.680 117.730 +0.04% +0.53% = dinar => 0 0 Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previou Daily Change s close change in 2019 .PX Prague 1035.52 1030.29 +0.51% +4.96% 00 .BUX Budapest 40290.1 40722.3 -1.06% +2.94% 9 6 .WIG20 Warsaw <.WIG20 2103.31 2140.19 -1.72% -7.61% > .BETI Buchares 9134.21 9115.80 +0.20% +23.71 t % .SBITO Ljubljan <.SBITO 862.86 861.34 +0.18% +7.29% P a P> .CRBEX Zagreb <.CRBEX 1893.16 1885.68 +0.40% +8.25% > .BELEX Belgrade <.BELEX 739.14 746.15 -0.94% -2.96% 15 15> .SOFIX Sofia <.SOFIX 582.39 582.16 +0.04% -2.03% > BONDS Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republic CZ2YT= 2-year <CZ2YT= 1.0350 0.0010 +191bp -1bps RR RR> s CZ5YT= 5-year <CZ5YT= 0.7200 -0.0210 +161bp -1bps RR RR> s CZ10YT <CZ10YT 0.9440 0.0130 +157bp +3bps =RR 10-year =RR> s Poland PL2YT= 2-year <PL2YT= 1.5180 -0.0150 +239bp -2bps RR RR> s PL5YT= 5-year <PL5YT= 1.6770 -0.0440 +256bp -3bps RR RR> s PL10YT <PL10YT 1.8210 -0.0460 +245bp -3bps =RR 10-year =RR> s FORWARD RATE AGREEME NT 3×6 6×9 9×12 3M interba nk Czech <CZKFRA 1.99 1.76 1.57 2.14 Rep ><PRIBO R=> Hungary <HUFFRA 0.29 0.31 0.34 0.26 ><BUBOR => Poland <PLNFRA 1.70 1.63 1.57 1.72 ><WIBOR => Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ******************************************** ****************** (Reporting by Krisztina Than in Budapest, Luiza Ilie in Bucharest and Alan Charlish in Warsaw Writing by Jason Hovet Editing by Keith Weir)


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