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Views Article – Sharenet Wealth

Europe, Forex

Trump’s China tariffs send tremor through markets

By Alan Charlish WARSAW, Aug 2 (Reuters) – Central European assets fell again on Friday, knocked down by U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that he would impose 10% tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese products next month. Coming just a day after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested the first U.S rate cut in over a decade was not the start of a lengthy series, Trump’s announcement was a fresh blow to risk-sensitive emerging-market assets. At 0750 GMT, the Hungarian forint was down 0.19% against the euro at 327.68. The Polish zloty shed 0.06% to 4.3107. The Czech crown was at 25.795, near the 14-month low hit on Thursday. “In our view current levels (above 4.31 after the Trump decision) could trigger some demand for the zloty,” Santander analysts said in a note, adding that information about tariffs against China is generally negative for the emerging market currencies. “If non-farm payrolls surprise to the upside (forecasts are rather low), the market could postpone its pricing of cuts in the US and this could weigh on the zloty again.” U.S non-farm payrolls will be announced at 1230 GMT. Stocks mostly tracked global shares lower. Prague’s PX index shed 0.9% and Poland’s benchmark WIG 20 index fell 0.6% as of 0806 GMT. Czech 10-year bond yields fell to their lowest since September 2017 at 1.145. Polish 10-year yields fell 7 basis points to 2.129. On Thursday, the Czech National Bank (CNB) left its two-week repo rate at 2.00%, and signalled rates would remain unchanged in coming quarters, as momentum in the domestic economy offsets monetary easing abroad. “We do not change our forecast for this year now and still expect stability of rates,” Erste Group analyst Jiri Polansky said in a note. “The CNB will be cautious and wait to see how the situation around the Brexit and a possibility of an increase of US trade tariffs on EU cars develops.” In Hungary, calendar-adjusted retail sales rose by an annual 5.2% in June after a 2.6% increase in May, the Central Statistics Office (KSH) said on Friday. “At first sight, this looks strong enough, but compared to what we’ve been used to in the past 18 months, it is definitely a sign of weaker activity,” ING analyst Peter Virovacz said in a note, adding he expects consumption to slow, curbing growth. CEE SNAPSHOT AT MARKETS 1037 CET CURRENCI ES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2019 Czech 25.7920 25.7710 -0.08% -0.33% crown Hungary 327.7500 327.1000 -0.20% -2.03% forint Polish 4.3090 4.3058 -0.07% -0.45% zloty Romanian 4.7340 4.7333 -0.01% -1.69% leu Croatian 7.3840 7.3833 -0.01% +0.35% kuna Serbian 117.6000 117.7100 +0.09% +0.60% dinar Note: calculated from 1800 CET daily change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2019 Prague 1038.43 1047.080 -0.83% +5.26% 0 Budapest 40548.13 40474.27 +0.18% +3.60% Warsaw 2232.52 2240.78 -0.37% -1.94% Bucharest 9072.20 9120.11 -0.53% +22.87% Ljubljana 874.12 871.52 +0.30% +8.69% Zagreb 1902.63 1911.40 -0.46% +8.80% Belgrade <.BELEX15 737.31 738.54 -0.17% -3.20% > Sofia 582.38 581.48 +0.15% -2.03% BONDS Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republic 2-year <CZ2YT=RR 1.0640 0.0100 +185bps +3bps > 5-year <CZ5YT=RR 1.0730 0.0250 +184bps +4bps > 10-year <CZ10YT=R 1.1450 -0.0700 +163bps -4bps R> Poland 2-year <PL2YT=RR 1.5360 -0.0260 +232bps -1bps > 5-year <PL5YT=RR 1.8250 -0.0570 +259bps -4bps > 10-year <PL10YT=R 2.1200 -0.0820 +261bps -5bps R> FORWARD RATE AGREEMEN T 3×6 6×9 9×12 3M interban k Czech Rep < 2.12 2.00 1.90 2.16 PRIBOR=> Hungary < 0.33 0.38 0.42 0.26 BUBOR=> Poland < 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.72 WIBOR=> Note: FRA are for ask prices quotes ************************************************** ************ For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX Middle East spot FX Asia spot FX Latin America spot FX Other news and reports World central bank news Economic Data Guide Official rates Emerging Diary Top events Diaries Diaries Index (Reporting by Alan Charlish, editing by Larry King)


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