Views Article – Sharenet Wealth

Europe, Forex

CEE MARKETS-Stocks track global peers lower on trade fears

(Corrects final paragraph to read 1.4620 not 11.4620) By Alan Charlish WARSAW, July 18 (Reuters) – Central European stocks fell on Thursday, tracking losses overnight in Asia and the United States as fears over global trade continued to worry investors. U.S. President Donald Trump spooked world markets on Tuesday by saying the United States still has a long way to go to conclude a trade deal with China but could impose tariffs on an additional $325 billion worth of Chinese goods if it needed to do so. At 0936 GMT Poland’s WIG 20 was down 0.4%, while in Bucharest the SE Bet index shed 0.5% and Prague’s PX index was down 0.2%. Budapest’s main index was up 0.3%. “I think they are as much steered by global topics as any other market – it’s trade, it’s the Fed, it’s the ECB,” said Henning Esskuchen, Head of CEE Equity Research at Erste Group. Currencies were little changed, with the Czech crown bid at 25.5970, the Hungarian forint bid at 326.60 and the Polish zloty at 4.2632. “The zloty is stuck in a very narrow range…we don’t expect any moves at this moment,” said a Warsaw-based currency trader. Polish industrial output unexpectedly fell by 2.7% in June, according to data released by the statistics office on Thursday. Analysts polled by Reuters expected the output to rise by 2.0% year-on-year. Poland’s central bank governor Adam Glapinski said the fall was not a reason for concern as a slight economic slowdown is in line with the bank’s assumptions. “June results were undoubtedly strongly affected by the negative effect of working days (minus two days year-on-year) and it seems that this effect could have been stronger than the market assumed,” said Marcin Luzinski, an economist at Santander Bank Polska Polish 10-year yields fell almost 2 basis points to 2.25 while Czech 10-year yields fell 1 basis point to 1.462. CEE SNAPSHOT AT MARKETS 1136 CET CURRENCI ES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2019 Czech 25.5970 25.6160 +0.07% +0.43% crown Hungary 326.6000 326.4500 -0.05% -1.69% forint Polish 4.2632 4.2615 -0.04% +0.62% zloty Romanian 4.7325 4.7335 +0.02% -1.66% leu Croatian 7.3870 7.3875 +0.01% +0.31% kuna Serbian 117.6000 117.6300 +0.03% +0.60% dinar Note: calculated from 1800 CET daily change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2019 Prague 1060.47 1062.360 -0.18% +7.49% 0 Budapest 41130.51 40990.89 +0.34% +5.09% Warsaw 2298.20 2306.67 -0.37% +0.95% Bucharest 9048.52 9091.28 -0.47% +22.55% Ljubljana 869.12 867.11 +0.23% +8.06% Zagreb 1887.18 1890.27 -0.16% +7.91% Belgrade <.BELEX15 754.44 750.37 +0.54% -0.95% > Sofia 576.02 577.28 -0.22% -3.10% BONDS Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republic 2-year <CZ2YT=RR 1.4340 -0.0090 +218bps -1bps > 5-year <CZ5YT=RR 1.3850 0.0350 +205bps +4bps > 10-year <CZ10YT=R 1.4620 -0.0120 +177bps +0bps R> Poland 2-year <PL2YT=RR 1.5470 -0.0100 +229bps -1bps > 5-year <PL5YT=RR 1.8780 -0.0210 +255bps -1bps > 10-year <PL10YT=R 2.2500 -0.0160 +256bps +0bps R> FORWARD RATE AGREEMEN T 3×6 6×9 9×12 3M interban k Czech Rep < 2.17 2.07 1.95 2.16 PRIBOR=> Hungary < 0.35 0.42 0.48 0.26 BUBOR=> Poland < 1.74 1.74 1.72 1.72 WIBOR=> Note: FRA are for ask prices quotes ************************************************** ************ (Reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw, Krisztina Than in Budapest and Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

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