Views Article – Sharenet Wealth

Europe, Forex

Euro falls to one-week low as easing expectations favour dollar

* Euro one of worst performing currencies this week

* Sterling slips to new 27-month low vs dollar

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh (Adds quotes, context, updates prices)

By Olga Cotaga

LONDON, July 17 (Reuters) – The euro fell to a one-week low against the dollar on Wednesday and towards the lower end of this year’s trading range, weighed down by expectations of monetary policy easing and investors’ preference for the higher-yielding U.S. currency.

Analysts say it is unlikely the euro will recover significantly before a European Central Bank meeting next week at which policymakers might unveil plans for fresh monetary stimulus.

Nearly two interest rate cuts of 10 basis points are priced in by money markets for 2019. A worse-than-expected ZEW survey of German economic sentiment on Tuesday put further pressure on the struggling euro, one of the worst-performing currencies this week along with sterling.

The common currency was unchanged at $1.1214 even after euro zone consumer price inflation was revised up to 1.3% year-on-year in June and construction output showed a small contraction in May.

Before the data release, board member Benoit Coeure said the ECB was ready to act if necessary to help inflation in the euro zone move towards its aim of close to but below 2%.

The currency dropped earlier to $1.1200, the lowest since July 9. It has fallen by 2.2% so far this year against the dollar and traded within a relatively narrow range of $1.15 and $1.11.

As the ECB meeting on July 25 approaches, the euro is likely to continue trading around current levels and possibly below $1.12, said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research at Societe Generale.

Europe is underperforming and “I would favour long dollar in this environment,” he said.

Corporates and other market participants do not look overly concerned about big fluctuations in the euro, as the cost of protection against major price swings measured by the one-month options contracts is relatively low.

Meanwhile, hedge funds topped up their net short positions on the euro to $5.02 billion in the week to July 9 while staying neutral on the dollar, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Euro short positions increased only slightly, however, and remain close to their lowest since January.

Elsewhere, the pound slipped to another 27-month low of $1.2382 on a combination of no-deal Brexit jitters and a stronger dollar. It also hit a fresh six-month low against the euro at 90.51 pence.

The dollar rose on Tuesday after stronger-than-expected June U.S. retail sales data dampened expectations that the Fed could cut interest rates by 50 basis points rather than 25 bps at its month-end policy review.

An index which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies surged to a one-week high of 97.44, but it was last down marginally at 97.309.

Some analysts doubt the dollar’s robust performance is sustainable.

“The upside for the dollar we view as generally limited from here with the Fed still very likely to deliver two rate cuts through the remainder of the year,” said Derek Halpenny, European head of research at MUFG.

(Reporting by Olga Cotaga; Editing by Catherine Evans)

© 2019 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved. Reuters content is the intellectual property of Thomson Reuters or its third party content providers. Any copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. "Reuters" and the Reuters Logo are trademarks of Thomson Reuters and its affiliated companies.