We have concluded August on the six major dams being 66% full – on the upper bound of the ranges we forecast in June.
September is the last month of the Western Cape hydrological year with a 5-year average increase in water levels of 1.3% and a 5-year best-witnessed increase of 3.68%. This means we can expect to finish up the hydrological year this month in the 67.3% to 69.7% range, a far cry from the 37% we finished up with in 2017 and just shy of where we finished up in 2015.
It should be noted that more than 50% of the improvement over 2017 comes from aggressive water restrictions on city dwellers and agriculture, so we should not construe our situation to a return of normal rainfall patterns. In fact, rainfall, although 45% better than 2017, is well below normal from a long term historical perspective as the chart from the Department of Water Affairs shows:
Here is the current status of the six major damns supplying the Western Cape
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Dwaine van Vuuren
RecessionAlert, Sharenet Analytics
Dwaine van Vuuren is a full-time trader, global investor and stock-market researcher. His passion for numbers and keen research & analytic ability has helped grow RecessionALERT.com (US based) and PowerStocks Research (now Sharenet Analytics) into companies used by hundreds of hedge funds, brokerage firms, financial advisers and private investors around the world. An enthusiastic educator, he will have you trading and investing with confidence & discipline.