The above-average rainfalls in June coupled with continued severe water restrictions led to the Western Cape’s six major supply dams experiencing record 5-year net inflows (rainfall less consumption).
We are now 11% above where we started the season off compared to the last high of June 2014 where we were 6% below where we started the season.
Here is the summary of each months’ net inflows compared to the 5-year best and the 5-year average:
We registered record net inflows for December 2017, February, March and May 2018 and above average inflows for every month since the start of the season. There is still a week left for run-off from last week’s rains which could make June a record month of inflows.
How this impacts the surface water stored across the six major dams is shown below:
The forecast zone shows an upper bound based on achieving continued above average rainfall whilst the lower bound shows what happens if we revert to 5-year average rainfalls. This gives a range of ending up the season with 536 to 657 million cubic metres provided we don’t fall to below average rainfall for the next 3 months. We need to finish up with at least 500 mega liters to allow for the agricultural industry to avoid debilitating restrictions in 2019. If we finish up at 650 mega liters or more, there will be scope for a relaxation of some water restrictions for 2019.
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Dwaine van Vuuren
RecessionAlert, Sharenet Analytics
Dwaine van Vuuren is a full-time trader, global investor and stock-market researcher. His passion for numbers and keen research & analytic ability has helped grow RecessionALERT.com (US based) and PowerStocks Research (now Sharenet Analytics) into companies used by hundreds of hedge funds, brokerage firms, financial advisers and private investors around the world. An enthusiastic educator, he will have you trading and investing with confidence & discipline.