Far heavier consumption of last week than the 10 weeks prior means that Day Zero has moved from around mid-August to first week in June, assuming the new weekly consumption trend remains in place. Let’s hope this is a once-off anomaly and we resume the prior trend.
Year-to-date cumulative rainfall at Cape Town International Airport shows that 2018 rainfall (7.5mm) is currently 31% lower than 2017 (11mm) which is a worrying sign if this ratio also applies to our major rainfall catchment areas, as it means we cannot rely on increased rainfall this year to avoiding Day Zero in 2019.
It is now apparent that water augmentation schemes are behind target and unlikely to make meaningful impacts in 2019. The only two deciding factors are rainfall (over which we have no control) and consumption (which we have control over, albeit unpleasant).
There is a cold front approaching that is likely to give 12-24 hours rainfall – let’s hope it gives us the precious water we need. According to the forecast, 5-20mm can be expected for the western parts, with 25-30mm over the mountainous areas.
Also see our latest analysis – Dry, the beloved country where we highlight how business-as-usual processes place the entire national economy at risk, and not just Cape Town.
DATA FLASH shows occasional topical datapoints about the markets, economy or life.
Dwaine van Vuuren
RecessionAlert, Sharenet Analytics
Dwaine van Vuuren is a full-time trader, global investor and stock-market researcher. His passion for numbers and keen research & analytic ability has helped grow RecessionALERT.com (US based) and PowerStocks Research (now Sharenet Analytics) into companies used by hundreds of hedge funds, brokerage firms, financial advisers and private investors around the world. An enthusiastic educator, he will have you trading and investing with confidence & discipline.