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U.S. long-dated yields edge lower in holiday-shortened week

* Investors look to U.S. data later this week
* U.S. economy not nearing a recession-analysts
* Liquidity, trading seen thinning out this week

(Adds new comment, updates prices)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. long-dated Treasury
yields slipped from four-week highs on Monday in choppy trading,
ahead of U.S. data in a holiday-shortened week that will give
some guidance on whether the world's largest economy could tip
into recession in the near future.
Financial markets are closed on Friday for the Good Friday
After hitting a roughly 14-month low around late March,
U.S. benchmark 10-year and 30-year yields have risen about 17
and 16 basis points respectively.
"I don't think we're nearing recession, but as these things
go, they often pop up out of nowhere," said Lou Brien, market
strategist at DRW Trading in Chicago.
He cited the U.S. unemployment rate, which has stayed low,
but this metric was quite low going into the last three
recessions anyway. "So it's a lagging indicator in that regard."
The other interesting thing, Brien said, is that the Federal
Reserve has cut rates ahead of the last three recessions.
The Fed's shift from a tightening bias to a neutral one,
with the possibility of some easing suggested that if there is
corroborating negative data, the Fed would cut rates.
"Right now, there is no data to suggest that a cut is
imminent," Brien said.
U.S. retail sales, industrial production, and housing data
are due this week and Stan Shipley, fixed income strategist at
Evercore ISI in New York, believes those numbers will show a far
more stable economy than many initially thought.
Due to the short week, liquidity and activity are likely to
be on the light side, analysts said.
"As a result, it follows that we will continue to monitor
risk asset performance to provide incremental trading guidance
for the Treasury market, at least for the moment," BMO Capital
Markets said in a research note.
"In that vein, the start to earnings season was rather
impressive as the banks appear to be doing relatively well,
adding to some upward pressure on the equity market as the S&P
500 nears a return to record levels," it added.
In afternoon trading, U.S. 10-year note yields slipped to
2.552%, down from 2.56% late on Friday.
Yields on U.S. 30-year bonds were also lower at 2.964%
, down from 2.971% on Friday.
On the short end of the curve, U.S. 2-year yields edged
lower to 2.393%, compared with Friday's 2.396%.
Yields drifted higher earlier after U.S. data showed a
higher-than-expected rise in the New York Fed's Empire State
current business conditions to 10.1 in April, from 3.7 in March.

April 15 Monday 3:10PM New York / 1910 GMT

Price Current Net
Yield % Change
Three-month bills 2.37 2.4166 -0.024
Six-month bills 2.3775 2.439 -0.025
Two-year note 99-186/256 2.3936 -0.002
Three-year note 99-176/256 2.3586 0.000
Five-year note 98-220/256 2.3702 -0.005
Seven-year note 98-176/256 2.4563 -0.010
10-year note 100-160/256 2.5525 -0.007
30-year bond 100-176/256 2.965 -0.006

Last (bps) Net
U.S. 2-year dollar swap 9.75 0.00
U.S. 3-year dollar swap 6.50 0.00
U.S. 5-year dollar swap 3.50 0.50
U.S. 10-year dollar swap -1.25 0.50
U.S. 30-year dollar swap -24.00 1.00

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-DreyfussEditing by Susan Thomas
and Cynthia Osterman)

First Published: 2019-04-15 16:53:03
Updated 2019-04-15 21:23:58

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