No-deal Brexit could have 'significant' but not 'excessive', cost for Spain - central bank
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MADRID, March 19 (Reuters) - If Britain were to leave the
European Union without a deal, it could have a "significant",
but not "excessive" effect on the Spanish economy, the Bank of
Spain said on Tuesday.
A no-deal, disordered Brexit would hit the Spanish economy
by 0.82 percentage points over the next five years, the central
bank said in a report which provided estimates of the effects
on the Spanish economy under various hypothetical scenarios.
"The results suggest that the cost for the Spanish economy
of the eventual exit of Britain from the EU could be
significant, depending on the final scenario in which it leaves,
but, probably, not excessive," the bank said.
The bank has warned that Britain's decoupling from the EU
was one of the main uncertainties affecting Spain's economy this
year due to close economic ties between the two countries and
Spain's high reliance on British sun seekers in its tourism
After two-and-a-half years of negotiations, Britain's
departure from the EU remains uncertain with options including a
long postponement, leaving with a deal, a disruptive exit
without a deal, or even another referendum.
If Britain were to leave with a deal, the effect would be
relatively minor, with a 0.02 percentage point lag over the next
five years on Spain's economy, the Bank of Spain said.
"With only a few days remaining until 29 March 2019, when
the Article 50 deadline for withdrawal expires, no consensus
plan has emerged yet. Without an alternative plan, a no-deal
exit is – excepting postponement – the current default option,"
the bank said.
(Reporting by Jose Elias Rodriguez; Writing by Paul Day;
Editing by Alison Williams)
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