Wrap Text
Old Mutual plc Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 December 2013 - Part 3
Old Mutual
ISIN CODE: GB00B77J0862
JSE SHARE CODE: OML
NSX SHARE CODE: OLM
ISSURE CODE: OLOML
Adjusted Group MCEV by line of business
At 31 December 2013
GBPm
At At
31 December 31 December
Notes 2013 2012 Restated(1)
MCEV of the core covered business (Emerging Markets) B3 2,953 3,316
Adjusted net worth(2) 1,621 1,838
Value of in-force business 1,332 1,478
MCEV of the core covered business (Old Mutual Wealth) B3 2,549 2,444
Adjusted net worth(2) 575 466
Value of in-force business 1,974 1,978
MCEV of the non-core covered business (Old Mutual Bermuda)(3) B3 365 625
Adjusted net worth 365 680
Value of in-force business - (55)
Adjusted net worth of asset management and other business 1,670 1,772
Emerging Markets 364 444
Old Mutual Wealth 248 225
US Asset Management 1,058 1,103
Value of the banking business 3,172 3,574
Nedbank (market value) 3,113 3,527
Emerging Markets (adjusted net worth) 59 47
Value of the general insurance business
Property & Casualty (adjusted net worth) 183 261
Net other business(4) 366 34
Adjustment for present value of Black Economic Empowerment
scheme deferred consideration 201 245
Adjustment for value of own shares in ESOP schemes(5) 123 126
Market value of perpetual preferred callable securities (582) (686)
Market value of subordinated debt (838) (921)
Adjusted Group MCEV 10,162 10,790
Adjusted Group MCEV per share (pence) 207.5 220.5
Number of shares in issue at the end of the financial period less treasury
shares (millions) 4,897 4,893
(1)The prior period has been restated for the impact of the change in accounting policies. Refer to note A1 for further information.
(2)Adjusted net worth is after the elimination of inter-company loans.
(3)The valuation basis for Old Mutual Bermuda has been simplified for 2013. Refer to note A1 for further information.
(4)Net other business is the aggregate of other Group assets and liabilities not included elsewhere, including net inter-company adjustments and holding company cash.
(5)Includes adjustment for the value of excess own shares in employee share scheme trusts.
Adjusted operating Group MCEV statement of earnings
For the year ended 31 December 2013
GBPm
Year ended Year ended
31 December 31 December
Notes 2013 2012 Restated(1)
Emerging Markets 603 619
Covered business B2 450 459
Asset management 141 145
Banking 12 15
Old Mutual Wealth 181 (19)
Covered business B2 162 (5)
Asset management 19 (14)
Nedbank
Banking 797 825
Property & Casualty
General insurance 4 37
US Asset Management
Asset management 111 91
Other operating segments
Finance costs(2) (103) (148)
Corporate costs(3) (41) (40)
Other net (expenses)/income(4) (2) (13)
Adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings before tax from core operations 1,550 1,352
(1)The prior period has been restated for the impact of the change in accounting policies and reallocation of US Asset Management seed capital gains. Refer to note A1 for
further information.
(2)This includes interest payable from Old Mutual plc to non-core operations of GBP11 million (December 2012: GBP18 million).
(3)Central costs of GBP13 million (December 2012: GBP14 million) are allocated to the covered business and provisioned in the VIF. This is based on the proportion of
management expenses that are incurred by the covered business as a percentage of total management expenses incurred by the Group. Hence net corporate costs
under MCEV of GBP41 million (December 2012: GBP40 million) differ from the IFRS amount of GBP54 million (December 2012: GBP54 million).
(4)Other net expenses exclude capital gains on seed capital in the US asset management business of GBP9 million (December 2012: GBP14 million). These seed capital
gains are included in the earnings of Old Mutual Bermuda (Non-core continuing operations) for MCEV reporting.
Adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings per share
For the year ended 31 December 2013
GBPm
Core Non-core
continuing continuing Discontinued
Year ended 31 December 2013 Notes operations operations operations(2) Total
Adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings before tax 1,550 31 - 1,581
Covered business B2 612 31 - 643
Other business 938 - - 938
Tax on adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings (423) 1 - (422)
Covered business B2 (161) 1 - (160)
Other business (262) - - (262)
Adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings after tax 1,127 32 - 1,159
Non-controlling interests
Ordinary shares (273) - - (273)
Preferred securities (19) - - (19)
Adjusted operating MCEV earnings after tax attributable to
equity holders1 835 32 - 867
Adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings per share 17.3 0.6 - 17.9
Adjusted weighted average number of shares (millions) 4,836
GBPm
Core Non-core
continuing continuing Discontinued
Year ended 31 December 2012 Restated(3) Notes operations operations operations(2) Total
Adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings before tax 1,352 99 28 1,479
Covered business B2 454 99 18 571
Other business 898 - 10 908
Tax on adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings (373) - (3) (376)
Covered business B2 (118) - - (118)
Other business (255) - (3) (258)
Adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings after tax 979 99 25 1,103
Non-controlling interests
Ordinary shares (277) - - (277)
Preferred securities (50) - - (50)
Adjusted operating MCEV earnings after tax attributable to
equity holders(1) 652 99 25 776
Adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings per share 12.9 2.0 0.5 15.4
Adjusted weighted average number of shares (millions) 5,029
(1)Adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings excludes income attributable to Black Economic Empowerment trusts of listed subsidiaries. The calculation of the adjusted
weighted average number of shares includes own shares held in policyholders' funds and Black Economic Empowerment trusts.
(2)Discontinued operations include earnings from previously owned Nordic business.
(3)The prior period has been restated for the impact of the change in accounting policies and reallocation of US Asset Management seed capital gains. Refer to note A1
for further information.
Group MCEV statement of earnings
For the year ended 31 December 2013
GBPm
Year ended Year ended
31 December 31 December
Notes 2013 2012 Restated(1)
Adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings before tax from core continuing operations 1,550 1,352
Adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings before tax from OM Bermuda non-core operations 31 99
Adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings before tax from continuing operations(2) 1,581 1,451
Adjusting items from continuing operations C2 389 492
Total Group MCEV earnings before tax from continuing operations 1,970 1,943
Income tax attributable to shareholders (528) (490)
Total Group MCEV earnings after tax from continuing operations 1,442 1,453
Total Group MCEV earnings after tax from discontinued operations 3 600
Total Group MCEV earnings after tax for the financial period 1,445 2,053
Total Group MCEV earnings for the financial period attributable to:
Equity holders of the parent 1,170 1,747
Non-controlling interests
Ordinary shares 256 256
Preferred securities 19 50
Total Group MCEV earnings after tax for the financial period 1,445 2,053
Basic total Group MCEV earnings per ordinary share (pence) 25.5 36.6
Weighted average number of shares (millions) 4,597 4,768
(1)The prior period has been restated for the impact of the change in accounting policies and reallocation of US Asset Management seed capital gains. Refer to note A1 for
further information.
(2)Refer to note A2 for the definition of adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings.
Notes to the MCEV basis supplementary information
For the year ended 31 December 2013
A: MCEV policies
A1: Basis of preparation
The Market Consistent Embedded Value methodology (MCEV) adopts the Market Consistent Embedded Value Principles (Copyright © Stichting
CFO Forum Foundation 2008) issued in June 2008 and updated in October 2009 by the CFO Forum (the Principles) as the basis for the
methodology used in preparing the supplementary information.
The CFO forum released interim transitional guidance in September 2012 confirming that there was no requirement to make allowance for Solvency
II in subsequent MCEV disclosures.
The Principles have been materially complied with in the preparation of MCEV information for Emerging Markets and Old Mutual Wealth businesses
at 31 December 2013. The detailed methodology and assumptions made in presenting this supplementary information are set out in notes A2 and
A3.
Throughout the supplementary information the following terminology is used to distinguish between the terms MCEV, Group MCEV and adjusted
Group MCEV:
- MCEV is a measure of the consolidated value of shareholders' interests in the covered business and consists of the sum of the shareholders'
adjusted net worth in respect of the covered business and the value of the in-force covered business.
- Group MCEV is a measure of the consolidated value of shareholders' interests in covered and non-covered business. Non-covered business is
valued at the IFRS net asset value detailed in the primary IFRS financial statements adjusted to eliminate inter-company loans and a
deduction for certain non-controlling interests in Emerging Markets.
- The adjusted Group MCEV which is a measure used by management to assess the shareholders' interest in the value of the Group, includes
the impact of marking all debt to market value, the market value of the Group's listed banking subsidiary, marking the value of deferred
consideration due in respect of Black Economic Empowerment arrangements in South Africa (the BEE schemes) to market, as well as
including the market value of excess own shares held in Employee Share Ownership Plan (ESOP) schemes.
(a) Changes in basis of preparation
Old Mutual Bermuda valuation basis change
For the current period, the valuation basis for Old Mutual Bermuda has been simplified from a full bottom-up MCEV calculation to an adjusted IFRS
basis. The revised approach uses the IFRS net asset value calculated in accordance with the primary IFRS financial statements, with variable
annuity guarantee liabilities restated to reflect a best estimate valuation consistent with MCEV principles.
The main effect of this change is the removal of items previously included in the value of in-force business, apart from expected variable annuity
guarantee losses, which are now included in ANW. Items no longer included in the MCEV calculation as a result of not calculating the value of in-
force business include the cost of non-hedgeable risk, frictional costs and future annuity contract fee income, net of expenses.
This simplification is part of the consolidation of reporting processes for Old Mutual Bermuda following a significant run-off of the book (given
surrenders of variable annuities post the five-year top-up anniversaries) and management actions taken to de-risk the business. As a result, Old
Mutual Bermuda's value-in-force has become less significant to the Group from a valuation and risk perspective. Earnings calculated on the
adjusted IFRS basis are expected to be similar to bottom-up calculated MCEV earnings.
As a result of this change a simplified analysis of earnings approach has been adopted, with all earnings recorded under other operating experience
variances, apart from variable annuity guarantee performance (net of hedge performance) and seed capital gains and losses, which are recorded in
economic variances.
Comparative information has not been restated to reflect the valuation basis change.
Emerging Markets valuation basis for certain African entities
The covered business within certain African entities (Zimbabwe, Kenya, Malawi, Swaziland and Nigeria) has been included on an MCEV basis for
2013 year end reporting. Simplified approaches have been used where appropriate to the size of the business, or where insufficient market data is
available to perform full bottom-up MCEV calculations. Previously these entities were included in covered business on a basis consistent with the
primary IFRS financial statements.
Comparative information has not been restated to reflect this valuation change.
(b) Restatement of comparative information
IAS 19 (Employee Benefits) and IFRS 10 (Consolidated Financial Statements) restatements
The Group has adopted IAS 19 (Employee Benefits) and IFRS 10 (Consolidated Financial Statements) with a date of initial application of 1 January
2013. Further information on the key amendments to these statements are detailed in note I1 in the primary Group IFRS financial statements.
The change in accounting policies has been applied retrospectively and as a result, the comparative information for the year ended 31 December
2012 has been restated accordingly.
US Asset Management seed capital gains
The US asset management seed capital forms part of the adjusted net worth of Old Mutual Bermuda for MCEV reporting purposes following the
transfer of ownership in July 2012. Seed capital gains of GBP9 million (December 2012: GBP14 million) are recorded in economic variances in
MCEV reporting and are therefore excluded from operating MCEV earnings. This differs from the approach for IFRS reporting where seed capital
gains are included in adjusted operating profit. The December 2012 operating MCEV earnings have been restated to reflect this treatment.
A2: Methodology
(a) Introduction
MCEV represents the present value of shareholders' interests in the earnings that are distributable from assets allocated to the in-force covered
business after sufficient and appropriate allowances for the aggregate risks in the covered business. It is measured in a way that is consistent with
the value that would normally be placed on the cash flows generated by these assets and liabilities in a deep and liquid market. MCEV is therefore
a risk-adjusted measure to the extent that financial risk is reflected through the use of market consistent techniques in the valuation of both assets
and distributable earnings and a transparent explicit allowance is made for non-financial risks.
The MCEV consists of the sum of the following components:
- Adjusted net worth (ANW), which excludes acquired intangibles and goodwill, consisting of:
- free surplus allocated to the covered business; and
- required capital to support the covered business.
- Value of in-force covered business (VIF).
The adjusted net worth is the market value of shareholders' assets held in respect of the covered business after allowance for the liabilities which
are determined by local regulatory reserving requirements.
MCEV is calculated net of non-controlling shareholder interests and excludes the value of future new business.
(b) Coverage
Covered business includes, where material, any contracts that are regarded by local insurance supervisors as long-term life assurance business,
and other business, where material, directly related to such long-term life assurance business where the profits are included in the IFRS long-term
business profits in the primary financial statements. For the life businesses in entities where the covered business is not material, the treatment
within this supplementary information is the same as in the primary IFRS financial statements (i.e. expected future profits for this business are not
capitalised for MCEV reporting purposes).
Some types of business are legally written by a life company, but under IFRS are classified as asset management because 'long-term business'
only serves as a wrapper. This business is excluded from covered business, for example:
- New institutional investment platform pensions business written in the United Kingdom as it is more appropriately classified as unit trust
business; and
- Individual unit trusts and some group market-linked business written by the asset management companies in South Africa through the life
company as profits from this business arise in the asset management and asset administration companies.
The treatment within this supplementary information of non-covered business is the same as in the primary financial statements, except for the
recognition of certain non-controlling interests in Zimbabwe. The adjusted Group MCEV includes the impact of marking all debt to market value, the
market value of the Group's listed banking subsidiary, marking the value of deferred consideration due in respect of Black Economic Empowerment
arrangements in South Africa (the BEE schemes) to market, as well as including the market value of excess own shares held in ESOP schemes.
(c) Free surplus
Free surplus is the market value of any assets allocated to, but not required to support, the in-force covered business. It is determined as the
market value of any excess assets attributed to the covered business but not backing the regulatory liabilities, less the required capital to support
the covered business.
(d) Required capital
Required capital is the market value of assets that is attributed to support the covered business, over and above that required to back statutory
liabilities for covered business, whose distribution to shareholders is restricted. The following capital measures are considered in determining the
required capital held for covered business so that it reflects the level of capital considered by the directors to be appropriate to manage the
business:
- Economic capital
- Regulatory capital (i.e. the level of solvency capital which the local regulators require)
- Capital required by rating agencies in order to maintain the desired credit rating; and
- Any other required capital definition to meet internal management objectives.
Economic capital for the covered business is based upon Old Mutual's internal assessment of risks inherent in the underlying business. It measures
capital requirements on a basis consistent with a 99.5% confidence level over a one-year time horizon. The confidence level has been changed
from 99.93% to 99.5% for Group economic capital calculations at 31 December 2013 to ensure consistency with Solvency II principles and general
industry practice.
For Emerging Markets and Old Mutual Wealth, required capital determined with reference to internal management objectives is the most onerous
and is the capital measure used for the determination of required capital for MCEV reporting. The required capital in respect of OMLAC(SA)'s
covered business is partially covered by the market value of the Group's investments in banking in South Africa. On consolidation this investment is
shown separately.
For Old Mutual Bermuda, regulatory required capital is the most onerous capital measure, and continues to be the case despite the reduction in the
Bermuda Monetary Authority (BMA) regulatory capital requirements applicable at 31 December 2013.
In September 2013, the BMA approved a reduction in capital resource requirements from GBP433 million ($703 million) to GBP252 million ($418
million). The capital requirement will be kept constant to that approved by the BMA until there is notification of a revised capital requirement after the
filing of the 2013 annual return.
Notes to the MCEV basis supplementary information
For the year ended 31 December 2013
The table below shows the level of required capital expressed as a percentage of the minimum local regulatory capital requirements.
GBPm
At 31 December 2013 At 31 December 2012
Required Regulatory Required Regulatory
capital capital Ratio capital capital Ratio
Notes (a) (b) (a/b) (a) (b) (a/b)
Emerging Markets B3 1,113 802 1.4 1,312 923 1.4
Old Mutual Wealth1 B3 326 228 1.4 294 212 1.4
Old Mutual Bermuda B3 252 252 1.0 433 433 1.0
Total 1,691 1,282 1.3 2,039 1,568 1.3
(1)Local regulators for many of the Old Mutual Wealth countries allow intangible assets to be included as part of admissible regulatory capital. In such cases the required
capital reported for MCEV is net of these items, although each of the countries continues to be sufficiently capitalised on the local solvency basis. Skandia Leben in
Germany is permitted under local regulations to include the unallocated policyholder profit sharing liability as admissible capital.
(e) Value of in-force (VIF) covered business
Under the MCEV methodology, VIF consists of the following components:
- Present value of future profits (PVFP) from in-force covered business; less
- Time value of financial options and guarantees; less
- Frictional costs of required capital; less
- Cost of residual non-hedgeable risks (CNHR).
Projected liabilities and cash flows are calculated net of outward risk reinsurance with allowance for default risk of reinsurance counterparties where
material.
(f) Present value of future profits
The PVFP is calculated as the discounted value of future distributable earnings (taking account of local statutory reserving requirements) that are
expected to emerge from the in-force covered business, including the value of contractual renewal of in-force business, on a best estimate basis
where assumed earned rates of return and discount rates are equal to the risk free reference rates. This is also known as a deterministic certainty
equivalent valuation of future distributable earnings, and is described in more detail in note A3. Any limitations on distribution of such earnings due
to statutory or internal capital requirements are taken into account separately in the calculation of frictional costs of required capital.
PVFP captures the intrinsic value of financial options and guarantees on in-force covered business which are not included in the local statutory
reserves forming part of ANW, but excludes any additional allowance for the time value of financial options and guarantees.
(g) Financial options and guarantees
Allowance is made in the determination of MCEV for the potential impact of variability of investment returns (i.e. asymmetric impact) on future
shareholder cash flows of policyholder financial options and guarantees within the in-force covered business.
The time value of financial options and guarantees describes that part of the value of financial options and guarantees that arises from the variability
of future investment returns on assets to the extent that it is not already included in the local statutory reserves.
The calculation of the value of financial options and guarantees (including the allowance in ANW and VIF components of MCEV) is based on
market consistent stochastic modelling techniques where the actual assets held at the valuation date are used as the starting point for the valuation
of such financial options and guarantees. Projected future cash flows are valued using economic assumptions such that they are valued in line with
the price of similar cash flows that are traded in the capital markets. Closed form solutions are also applied in Europe provided the nature of any
guarantees is not complex.
The value of financial options and guarantees also includes allowance for potential burn-through costs on participating business, i.e. the extent to
which shareholders are unable to recover a loan made to participating funds to meet either regulatory or internal capital management requirements,
or the extent to which reserves are inadequate to meet benefit payments during periods of severely adverse experience.
In the generated economic scenarios, allowance is made, where appropriate, for the effect of dynamic management and/or policyholder actions in
different circumstances:
- Management has some discretion in managing the exposure to financial options and guarantees, particularly within participating business.
Such dynamic management actions are reflected in the valuation of financial options and guarantees provided that such discretion:
- is consistent with established and justifiable practice taking into account policyholders' reasonable expectations (for example, with due
consideration of the Principles and Practices of Financial Management (PPFM), in the South African business);
- is subject to any contractual guarantees and regulatory or legal constraints; and
- has been passed through an appropriate approval process by the local Executive team and the Board, where applicable.
Assumptions that depend on the market performance (such as bonus rates) are set relative to the risk free reference rates (subject to
contractual guarantees) and assuming that all market participants are subjected to the same market conditions.
- Where credible evidence exists that persistency rates are linked to economic scenarios, allowance is made for dynamic policyholder behaviour
in response to changes in economic conditions.
- Modelled dynamic management and policyholders' actions include the following:
- changes in future bonus rates subject to contractual guarantees, including removing all or part of previously declared non-vested
balances where circumstances warrant such action;
- dynamic lapse rates for the Bermuda business, and dynamic guaranteed annuity option take-up rates for the South African business
driven by changes in economic conditions and management actions; and
- changes in the surrender values.
In determining the value of financial options and guarantees, an appropriate number of simulations are run to ensure that a reasonable degree of
convergence of results has been obtained.
Emerging Markets
The financial options and guarantees mainly relate to the guaranteed portion of smoothed bonus business, maturity guarantees and guaranteed
annuity options.
As required by the applicable Actuarial Society of South Africa practice note, the value of the financial options and guarantees included in the
statutory reserves in the South African businesses has been valued using a risk-neutral market consistent asset model, and is referred to as the
'Investment Guarantee Reserve' (IGR). As the value of financial options and guarantees is held in local statutory reserves that form part of ANW, no
further allowance is needed for the time value of financial options and guarantees.
The IGR includes an explicit discretionary margin to allow for the sensitivity of the reserve to market movements, including interest rates, equity
levels and the volatility implicit in the pricing of derivative instruments in these markets. The value of future anticipated releases of the discretionary
margin is included in the VIF.
Old Mutual Wealth
The financial options and guarantees mainly relate to guaranteed annuity options on German deferred annuity contracts and minimum investment
return guarantees on French unit-linked investment products. The time value of financial options and guarantees has reduced significantly over
2013 as a result of modelling changes made in Germany. The majority of the value of financial options and guarantees for Old Mutual Wealth is
held in local statutory reserves that form part of ANW.
Bermuda
The financial options and guarantees mainly relate to the guaranteed minimum accumulation benefits on variable annuity contracts. Reserves for
financial options and guarantees, calculated on a best estimate valuation basis consistent with MCEV principles, are included in ANW.
(h) Frictional costs of required capital
From the shareholders' perspective there is a cost due to restrictions on the distribution of required capital that is locked in entities within the Group.
Where material, an allowance has been made for the frictional costs in respect of the taxation on investment return (income and capital gains) and
investment costs on the assets backing the required capital for covered business. The allowance for taxation is based on the taxation rates
applicable to investment earnings on assets backing the required capital.
The run-off pattern of the required capital is projected on an approximate basis over the lifetime of the underlying risks in line with drivers of the
capital requirement. The same drivers are used to split the total required capital between existing business and new business.
The allowance for frictional costs is independent of the allowance for the cost of residual non-hedgeable risks as described below.
(i) Cost of residual non-hedgeable risks(CHNR)
Sufficient allowance for the majority of financial risks has been made in the PVFP and the time value of financial options and guarantees using
techniques that are similar to the type of approaches used in capital markets. In addition, the modelling of some non-hedgeable non-financial risks
is incorporated as part of the calculation of the PVFP (for example, to the extent that expected operational losses are incorporated in the
maintenance expense assumptions) or the time value of financial options and guarantees (for example, dynamic policyholder behaviour such as the
interaction of the investment scenario and the persistency rates). Residual non-financial risks include, for example, liability risks such as mortality,
longevity and morbidity risks; business risks such as persistency, expense and reinsurance credit risks; and operational risk.
For 31 December 2012 information reported for Old Mutual Bermuda, in addition to the allowance for residual non-hedgeable risks, CNHR includes
an allowance for hedge ineffectiveness risk and credit spread risk, which are not modelled in the PVFP or TVOG calculations. In 2013, Old Mutual
Bermuda moved from a bottom-up MCEV calculation basis to an adjusted IFRS basis with the CNHR no longer calculated.
For 31 December 2013 information reported for Old Mutual Zimbabwe, the CNHR includes an allowance for financial as well as non-financial risks
to allow for financial risks that are not allowed for in the PVFP due to insufficient market data.
An allowance is made in the CNHR to reflect uncertainty in the best estimate of shareholder cash flows as a result of both symmetric and
asymmetric non-hedgeable risks since these risks cannot be hedged in deep and liquid capital markets and are managed, inter alia, by holding risk
capital. With the exception of operational risk, most residual non-hedgeable risks for the Group as a whole have a symmetric impact on shareholder
value, i.e. commensurate upside and downside impacts.
The CNHR is calculated using a cost of capital approach, i.e. it is determined as the present value of capital charges for all future non-hedgeable
risk capital requirements until the liabilities have run off. The capital charge in each year is the product of the projected expected non-hedgeable risk
capital held after allowance for some diversification benefits and the cost of capital charge. The cost of capital charge therefore represents the
return above the risk free reference rates that the market is deemed to demand for providing this capital.
The residual non-hedgeable risk capital measure is determined using an internal capital model based on appropriate shock scenarios consistent
with a 99.5% confidence level over a one-year time horizon, and is calculated using the same methodology used to determine economic capital.
The internal capital model makes allowance for certain management actions, such as reductions in bonus rates, where deemed appropriate. The
residual non-hedgeable risk capital makes an allowance for non-linearities between hedgeable and non-hedgeable risks.
The following treatment is applied for diversification benefits in determining the residual non-hedgeable risk capital at a business unit level:
- Diversification benefits within the non-hedgeable risks of the covered business are recognised.
- No diversification benefits are recognised between hedgeable and non-hedgeable risks of the covered business.
- No diversification benefits are recognised between covered and non-covered business.
Notes to the MCEV basis supplementary information
For the year ended 31 December 2013
A cost of capital charge of 2.0% (2012: 2.0%) has been applied to residual symmetric and asymmetric non-hedgeable capital at a business unit
level over the life of the contracts.This rate is derived by considering a market based view of required return on equity for the covered business, and
then deducting risk free investment returns, frictional costs and an allowance for franchise value. This translates into an equivalent cost of capital
rate of approximately 2.4% (2012: 2.4%) being applied to the diversified capital required in respect of such non-hedgeable risks for Emerging
Markets and Old Mutual Wealth as a combined group (no CNHR is calculated for Old Mutual Bermuda under the new valuation approach).
(j) Participating business
For participating business in Emerging Markets, the method of valuation makes assumptions about future bonus rates and the determination of
profit allocation between policyholders and shareholders. These assumptions are made on a basis consistent with other projection assumptions,
especially the projected future risk free investment returns, established Company practice (with due consideration of the PPFM for South African
business), past external communication, any payout smoothing strategy, local market practice, regulatory/contractual restrictions and bonus
participation rules.
Where current benefit levels are higher than can be supported by the existing fund assets together with projected investment returns, a downward
'glide path' in benefit levels is projected so that the policyholder fund would be exhausted on payment of the last benefit.
(k) Valuation of assets and treatment of unrealised losses
The market values of assets, where quoted in deep and liquid markets, are based on the bid price on the reporting date. Unquoted assets are
valued according to IFRS and marked to model.
No smoothing of market values or unrealised gains/losses is applied in determining the market value of assets.
(l) Asset mix
The value of financial options and guarantees and PVFP (where relevant) are calculated with reference to assets that are projected using the actual
asset allocation of the policyholder funds at the reporting date. However, if the current asset mix is materially different to the long-term strategic
asset allocation as a result of market movements, projected assets are assumed to revert to the long-term strategic asset allocation in the short- to
medium-term as appropriate.
(m) Consolidation adjustments
The MCEV result split by business unit takes account of both sides of any loan arrangements between Group companies, with the Group effect
included in net other business.
(n) Look through principle
PVFP and value of new business cash flow projections apply a look through approach. They include the profits/losses of owned service companies,
for example, distribution and administration entities, related to the management of the covered business. Any profit margins that are included in
investment management fees payable by the life assurance companies to the asset management subsidiaries have not been included in the value
of in-force business or the value of new business on the grounds of materiality.
(o) Taxation
In valuing shareholders' cash flows, allowance is made in the cash flow projections for taxes in the relevant jurisdiction affecting the covered
business. Tax assumptions are based on best estimate assumptions, applying current local corporate tax legislation and practice together with
known future changes and taking credit for any deferred tax assets.
The value of deferred tax assets is partly recognised in the MCEV. Typically those tax assets are expected to be utilised in future by being offset
against expected tax liabilities that are generated on expected profits emerging from in-force business. MCEV may therefore understate the true
economic value of such deferred tax assets because it does not allow for future new business sales which could affect the utilisation of such assets.
United Kingdom:
The Emergency Budget that was held in June 2010 set in motion a series of reductions to the UK's mainstream corporation tax rate. The impact of
the corporation tax rate reducing from 23% down to 21%, applicable from April 2014 and the reduction to 20%, applicable from April 2015, has
improved the Old Mutual Wealth MCEV position by GBP18 million.
South Africa:
The Taxation Laws Amendment Bill was released in October 2013, effecting changes to the tax relief in respect of sales, administration and indirect
expenses attributable to income incurred in individual and corporate policyholder funds (effective from 1 January 2013). This had the effect of
increasing the expense relief ratio, which improved expense experience variances in 2013. Further changes to taxation laws are anticipated in 2014
which are expected to have an adverse effect on post-tax earnings. However no changes have been made to MCEV assumptions at 31 December
2013 to reflect these recent or anticipated changes until the changes are more certain.
(p) Value of debt
Senior and subordinated debt securities are marked to market value for MCEV. For IFRS reporting, debt is valued at either book value or fair value.
The IFRS value of total debt is GBP1,345 million (2012: GBP1,570 million) and the MCEV value is GBP1,420 million (2012: GBP1,607 million).
Where either the principal or the coupon of the debt security has been swapped into an alternate currency, the fair value of these derivative
instruments of GBP50 million (2012: GBP96 million) has not been included in the value of debt; however, it is included in the Net Other Business
value of GBP366 million (2012: GBP34 million) (Adjusted Group MCEV by line of business). Further information relating to the debt securities can
be found in Note E1 in the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
(q) New business and renewals
The market consistent value of new business (VNB) measures the value of the future profits expected to emerge from all new business sold, and in
certain cases from premium increases to existing contracts, during the reporting period after allowance for the time value of financial options and
guarantees, frictional costs and the cost of residual non-hedgeable risks associated with writing the new business.
VNB includes contractual renewal of premiums and recurring single premiums, where the level of premium is pre-defined and is reasonably
predictable, and changes to existing contracts where these are not variations allowed for in the PVFP. Non-contractual increments are treated
similarly where the volume of such increments is reasonably predictable or likely (for example, where premiums are expected to increase in line
with salary or price inflation).
Any variations in premiums on renewal of in-force business from that previously anticipated including deviations in non-contractual increases,
deviations in recurrent single premiums and re-pricing of premiums for in-force business are treated as experience variances or economic variances
on in-force business and not as new business.
The key principles applied in calculating VNB are noted below.
- Economic assumptions at the start of the reporting period are used, except for OMLAC(SA)'s Non-Profit Annuities products where point of sale
assumptions are used that are consistent with the pricing basis.
- Demographic and operating assumptions at the end of the reporting period are used.
- VNB is calculated at point of sale and rolled forward to the end of the reporting period.
- Generally a stand-alone approach is used unless a marginal approach would better reflect the additional value to shareholders created through
the activity of writing new business.
- Expense allowances include all acquisition expenses, including any acquisition expense overruns. Strategic business development expenses
are excluded.
- VNB is calculated net of tax, reinsurance and non-controlling interests.
- Economic and operating variances are not attributed to VNB.
PVNBP is calculated at point of sale using premiums before reinsurance and applying a valuation approach that is consistent with the calculation of
VNB.
(r) Analysis of MCEV earnings
An analysis of MCEV earnings provides a reconciliation of the MCEV for covered business at the beginning of the reporting period and the MCEV
for covered business at the end of the reporting period. The analysis is completed on a post-tax basis after the deduction of minority interests.
Operating MCEV earnings are generated by the value of new business sold during the reporting period, the expected existing business contribution,
operating experience variances, operating assumption changes and other operating variances:
- The value of new business includes the impact of new business strain on free surplus that arises, amongst other things, from the impact of
initial expenses and additional required capital that is held in respect of such new business.
- The expected existing business contribution is determined by projecting both actual assets and actual liabilities (including assets backing the
free surplus and required capital) from the start of the reporting period to the end of the reporting period using expected real-world earned
rates of return. The expected existing business contribution is presented in two components:
- Expected earnings on free surplus and required capital and the expected change in VIF assuming that the assets earn the beginning of
period risk free reference rates as well as the deterministic release of the time value of options and guarantees, frictional costs and
CNHR; and
- Additional expected earnings on free surplus and required capital and the additional expected change in VIF as a result of real-world
expected earned rates of return on assets in excess of beginning of period risk free reference rates.
- Transfers from VIF and required capital to free surplus includes the release of required capital and modelled profits from VIF into free surplus
in respect of business that was in-force at the beginning of the reporting period. These transfers do not change the overall MCEV.
- Operating experience variances reflect the impact of deviations of the actual operational experience during the reporting period from the
expected operational experience. It is analysed before operating assumption changes, i.e. such variances are assessed against opening
operating assumptions, and reflects the total impact of in-force and new business variances.
- Development costs are reported separately from other expense experience variances in the MCEV analysis and reflect the cost of
projects related to the development of new and existing business, infrastructure and systems, from which we expect to earn higher profits
(either through increased sales or lower expenses) in future.
- Operating assumption changes incorporate the impact of changes to operating assumptions from those assumed at the beginning of the
reporting period to those assumed at the end of the reporting period. As VNB is calculated using operating assumptions at the end of the
reporting period, this impact only relates to the value of in-force business at the end of the reporting period that was also in-force at the
beginning of the reporting period.
- Other operating variances include model improvements, changes in methodology and the impact of certain management actions, such as a
change in the asset allocation backing required capital.
- Total MCEV earnings also includes economic variances and other non-operating variances:
- Economic variances incorporate the impact of changes in economic assumptions from the beginning of the reporting period to the end of
the reporting period (for example, different opening and closing interest rates and equity volatility) as well as the impact on earnings
resulting from actual returns on assets being different to the expected returns on those assets as reflected in the expected existing
business contribution, it therefore also includes the impact of economic variances in the reporting period on projected future earnings.
- Other non-operating variances include the impact of regulatory driven changes, the impact of changes to modelled taxation and certain
costs to ensure consistency of treatment with IFRS Adjusted Operating Profit.
An analysis of MCEV earnings requires non-operating closing adjustments. These mainly include exchange rate movements and capital transfers
such as those in respect of payment of dividends and acquiring/divesting businesses.
Notes to the MCEV basis supplementary information
For the year ended 31 December 2013
Return on MCEV for covered business is calculated as the operating MCEV earnings after tax divided by opening MCEV in business unit reporting
currency, except for core covered business and total covered business where the calculations are performed in sterling.
The anticipated expected existing business contribution for the 12 months following the year ended 31 December 2013 (at the reference rate as
well as in excess of the reference rate) is provided to assist users of the MCEV supplementary information in forecasting operating MCEV earnings.
For comparability against current year earnings, the average exchange rates over 2013 are used. Therefore the expected existing business
contribution for the financial year ending 31 December 2014 ultimately reflected in the 2014 financial statements may differ from these results.
(s) Group MCEV presentation
The presentation of Group MCEV consists of the covered business under the MCEV methodology and the non-covered business valued as the
unadjusted IFRS net asset value, with the exception of US Asset Management that is valued at IFRS NAV allowing for the value of the loan note
held with Old Mutual plc. A mark to market adjustment is therefore not performed for external borrowings and other non-covered business items not
already reported on a mark to market basis under IFRS.
(t) Adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings
For all businesses, adjusted operating MCEV earnings excludes goodwill impairment, the impact of acquisition accounting, option revaluations
related to long-term incentive schemes, the impact of closure of unclaimed shares trusts, profit/(loss) on acquisition/disposal of subsidiaries,
associated undertakings and strategic investments, dividends declared to holders of perpetual preferred callable securities, and fair value
(profits)/losses on certain Group debt instruments.
For long-term business and general insurance businesses, adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings are based on long-term and short-term
investment returns respectively, include investment returns on life fund investments in Group equity and debt instruments, and are stated net of
income tax attributable to policyholder returns. For the US asset management business it includes compensation costs in respect of certain long-
term incentive schemes defined as non-controlling interests in accordance with IFRS.
A3: Assumptions
Non-economic assumptions
The appropriate non-economic projection assumptions for future experience including, mortality, persistency and expense assumptions are
determined using best estimate assumptions of each component of future cash flows, are specific to the entity concerned and have regard to past,
current and expected future experience where sufficient evidence exists (for example, longevity improvements and AIDS-related claims) as derived
from both entity-specific and industry data where deemed appropriate. Material assumptions are actively reviewed by means of detailed experience
investigations and updated, as deemed appropriate.
These assumptions are based on the covered business being part of a going concern. Although favourable changes in maintenance expenses,
such as productivity improvements, are generally not included beyond what has been achieved by the end of the reporting period, maintenance
expense assumptions determined for certain businesses in Old Mutual Wealth do make some considerations for future cost reductions:
- Expense assumptions for run-off businesses consider cost reductions in future in line with management actions that would be taken as in-force
volumes decrease.
- Expense assumptions for the UK Legacy business reflect anticipated cost reductions arising from the outsourcing of the administration function
for this business.
The management expenses attributable to life assurance business have been analysed between expenses relating to the acquisition of new
business, maintenance of in-force business (including investment management expenses) and development projects.
- All expected maintenance expense overruns affecting the covered business are allowed for in the calculations.
- The MCEV makes provision for future development costs and one-off expenses relating to covered businesses that are known with sufficient
certainty, based on three year business plans. The provision is reduced to the extent that projects have associated benefits that are directly
quantifiable and are considered to emerge within a reasonable timeframe (for example, over the business plan period).
- In line with legislation in Germany, a specified proportion of miscellaneous profits are shared with policyholders. The revenue on in-force
business can be reduced by various expense items incurred in any year.
- Unallocated Group holding company expenses have been included to the extent that they are allocated to the covered business. The table
below shows the future expenses attributable to the long-term business. The allocation of these expenses is based on the proportion that the
management expenses incurred by the covered businesses bears to the total management expenses incurred by the Group.
Proportion of Group holding company expenses attributable to long-term business %
At At
31 December 31 December
2013 2012
Emerging Markets 17 18
Old Mutual Wealth 8 9
Old Mutual Bermuda(1) n/a n/a
Total 25 27
(1)Based on materiality, no Group holding expenses are allocated to Old Mutual Bermuda.
Economic assumptions
An active basis is applied to set pre-tax investment and economic assumptions to reflect the economic conditions prevailing on the reporting date.
Economic assumptions are set consistently, for example future bonus rates are set at levels consistent with the investment return assumptions.
Under a market consistent valuation, economic assumptions are determined such that projected cash flows are valued in line with the prices of
similar cash flows that are traded on the capital markets. In practice for the PVFP calculation, a certainty equivalent method is used which assumes
that actual assets held earn risk free reference rates (including any liquidity adjustment), before tax and investment management expenses, and all
the cash flows are discounted using risk free reference rates (including any liquidity adjustment) which are gross of tax and investment
management expenses. The deterministic certainty equivalent method is a valuation technique that ensures consistency with current market prices
and over time the expectation is that risk premiums will still be earned on assets such as equities and corporate bonds.
Due to the lack of available market data for Old Mutual Zimbabwe, weighted average investment return forecasts are used to determine appropriate
economic assumptions.
(a) Risk free reference rates and inflation
The risk free reference rates, reinvestment rates and discount rates are determined with reference to the swap yield curve that is appropriate to the
currency of the cash flows.
- For Europe the swap yield curve is obtained from Bloomberg.
- For Bermuda the swap yield curve is sourced from a third party market consistent asset model that is used to generate the economic scenarios
that are required to determine the value of financial options and guarantees.
- For Emerging Markets the swap yield curve is sourced internally (using market data provided by the Bond Exchange of South Africa) and it is
checked for reasonability relative to the Bloomberg swap yield curve.
At 31 December 2013, no adjustments have been made to swap yields to allow for liquidity premiums or credit risk premiums, apart from a liquidity
premium adjustment to OMLAC(SA)'s Immediate Annuity and Fixed Bond businesses. A liquidity premium adjustment is applied to OMLAC(SA)'s
Fixed Bond business as OMLAC(SA) holds a portfolio of non-government bonds which have a market yield in excess of the risk free rate and the
duration of the asset portfolio and the liability duration are a good match (meaning the asset portfolio is held to maturity). Cash flows on this product
are predictable and the company has adequate liquidity to withstand a substantial increase in lapses at all durations without having to sell bonds
which further strengthens the case for applying a liquidity premium.
It is the directors' view that a proportion of non-government bond spreads at 31 December 2013 is attributable to a liquidity premium rather than
only to credit and default allowances and that returns in excess of swap rates can be achieved, rather than entire spreads being lost to worsening
default experience. For OMLAC(SA)'s Immediate Annuity business the currency, credit quality and duration of the actual bond portfolios were
considered and adjusted risk free reference rates were derived at 31 December 2013 by adding 50 bps (2012: 50bps) of liquidity premium for this
business to the swap rates used for setting investment return and discounting assumptions. For OMLAC(SA)'s Fixed Bond products 40 bps (2012:
45 bps) of liquidity premium was added to the swap rates. These adjustments reflect the liquidity premium component in non-government bond
spreads over swap rates that is expected to be earned on the portfolios. In deriving the liquidity premia at 31 December 2013, we compared the
yields of similar durations on South African government bonds and bonds issues by state-owned enterprises.
At those durations where swap yields are not available, for example, due to lack of a sufficiently liquid or deep swap market, the swap curve is
extended using appropriate interpolation or extrapolation techniques.
The risk free reference spot yield curve has been derived from mid swap rates at the reporting date. Expense inflation rates have been derived by
comparing real rates of return against nominal risk free rates for each territory, with adjustments for higher business unit specific inflation where
applicable. The risk free reference spot yields (excluding any applicable liquidity adjustments) at various terms for each of the significant regions are
provided in the table that follows.
Risk free reference spot yields (excluding any applicable liquidity adjustments) %
GBP EUR USD ZAR
At 31 December 2013
1 year 0.7 0.4 0.3 5.7
5 years 2.2 1.3 1.8 7.7
10 years 3.1 2.2 3.3 8.8
20 years 3.6 2.9 4.1 9.7
At 31 December 2012
1 year 0.7 0.3 0.3 5.1
5 years 1.0 0.8 0.9 6.0
10 years 1.9 1.6 1.9 7.1
20 years 2.9 2.2 2.8 7.5
(b) Volatilities and correlations
Where cash flows contain financial options and guarantees that do not move linearly with market movements, asset cash flows are projected and all
cash flows are discounted using risk-neutral stochastic models. These models project the assets and liabilities using a distribution of asset returns
where all asset types, on average, earn the same risk free reference rates.
Notes to the MCEV basis supplementary information
For the year ended 31 December 2013
Apart from the risk free reference spot yields specified above, other key economic assumptions for the calibration of economic scenarios include the
implied volatilities for each asset class and correlations of investment returns between different asset classes. For Old Mutual Bermuda, implied
volatilities and correlations are determined for each global equity and bond index modelled.
The volatility assumptions for the calibration of economic scenarios that are used in the stochastic models are, where possible, based on those
implied from appropriate derivative prices (such as equity options or swaptions in respect of guarantees that are dependent on changes in equity
markets and interest rates respectively) as observed on the valuation date. However, historic implied and historic observed volatilities of the
underlying instruments and expert opinion are considered where there are concerns over the depth or liquidity of the market. Where strict
adherence to the above is not possible, for example where markets only exist at short durations such as the swaption market in South Africa,
interpolation or extrapolation techniques, and where appropriate, historical data are used to derive volatility assumptions for the full term
structure of the liabilities. Correlation assumptions between asset classes that are used in stochastic models are based on an assessment of historic
relationships. Where historic data is used in setting volatility or correlation assumptions, a suitable time period is considered for analysing historic
data including consideration of the appropriateness of historical data where economic conditions were materially different to current conditions.
(c) Exchange rates
All MCEV figures are calculated in local currency and translated to sterling using the appropriate exchange rates as detailed in Note A1 of the
Group Financial Statements.
(d) Expected asset returns in excess of the risk free reference rates
The expected asset returns in excess of the risk free reference rates have no bearing on the calculated MCEV other than the calculation of the
expected existing business contribution in the analysis of MCEV earnings. Real-world economic assumptions are determined with reference to one-
year forward risk free reference rates applicable to the currency of the liabilities at the start of the reporting period. All other economic assumptions,
for example future bonus rates, are set at levels consistent with the real-world investment return assumptions.
Equity and property risk premiums incorporate both historical relationships and the directors’ view of future projected returns in each region over the
analysis period. Pre-tax real-world economic assumptions are determined as follows (unchanged from prior period):
- The equity risk premium is 3.7% for Africa and 3% for Europe
- The cash return equals the one year risk free reference rate for all regions
- The property risk premium is 1.5% in Africa and 2% in Europe
- Returns on corporate bonds reference actual yields from assets held
- No risk premium is assumed for Old Mutual Bermuda’s Variable Annuity policyholder asset portfolios.
According to the simplified analysis of earnings approach, earnings for the Old Mutual Bermuda business no longer reflect an expected return
component.
B: Segment information
B1: Components of Group MCEV and Adjusted Group MCEV
GBPm
At At
31 December 31 December
Notes 2013 2012
Adjusted net worth attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent 5,450 5,774
Equity 7,270 7,816
Adjustment to IFRS net asset value C4 (1,294) (1,360)
Adjustment to remove perpetual preferred callable securities (526) (682)
Value of in-force business B3 3,306 3,401
Present value of future profits 3,752 3,946
Additional time value of financial options and guarantees (2) (53)
Frictional costs (222) (221)
Cost of residual non-hedgeable risks (222) (271)
Group MCEV 8,756 9,175
Adjustments to bring Group investments to market value
Adjustment to bring listed subsidiary (Nedbank) to market value 1,157 1,281
Adjustment for value of own shares in ESOP schemes (1) 123 126
Adjustment for present value of Black Economic Empowerment scheme deferred consideration 201 245
Adjustment to bring external debt to market value (75) (37)
Adjusted Group MCEV 10,162 10,790
Group MCEV value per share (pence) 178.8 187.5
Adjusted Group MCEV per share (pence) 207.5 220.5
Number of shares in issue at the end of the financial period less
treasury shares (millions) 4,897 4,893
Return on Group MCEV (RoEV) per annum from core operations 9.1% 6.7%
Return on Group MCEV (RoEV) per annum from continuing non-core operations 0.3% 1.0%
Return on Group MCEV (RoEV) per annum from discontinued operations 0.0% 0.3%
Return on Group MCEV (RoEV)(2) per annum 9.4% 8.0%
(1) Includes adjustment for value of excess own shares in employee share scheme trusts. The movement in value between 31 December 2012 and 31 December 2013 is
the net effect of the increase in the Old Mutual plc share price, the reduction in excess own shares following employee share grants during the period and the reduction in
overall shares held due to exercises of rights to take delivery of, or net settle, share grants during the financial period.
(2) The RoEV is calculated as the adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings after tax and non-controlling interests of GBP867 million (December 2012: GBP776 million) divided by
the opening Group MCEV.
Notes to the MCEV basis supplementary information
For the year ended 31 December 2013
B2: Adjusted operating MCEV earnings for the covered busine
GBPm
Total Core Old Non-core Discontinued
covered covered Emerging Mutual covered covered
Year ended 31 December 2013 business business Markets Wealth business business(1)
Adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings before
tax 643 612 450 162 31 -
Tax on adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings (160) (161) (122) (39) 1 -
Adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings after tax 483 451 328 123 32 -
GBPm
Total Core Old Non-core Discontinued
covered covered Emerging Mutual covered covered
Year ended 31 December 2012 business business Markets Wealth business business(1)
Adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings before
tax 571 454 459 (5) 99 18
Tax on adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings (118) (118) (131) 13 - -
Adjusted operating Group MCEV earnings after tax 453 336 328 8 99 18
(1) Discontinued covered business includes earnings from previously owned Nordic business.
B3: Components of MCEV of the covered business
GBPm
Total Core Non-core
covered covered Emerging Old Mutual covered
At 31 December 2013 business business Markets1 Wealth business(2)
Adjusted net worth 2,561 2,196 1,621 575 365
Free surplus 870 757 508 249 113
Required capital 1,691 1,439 1,113 326 252
Value of in-force 3,306 3,306 1,332 1,974 -
Present value of future profits 3,752 3,752 1,660 2,092 -
Additional time value of financial options and guarantees(3) (2) (2) - (2) -
Frictional costs (222) (222) (206) (16) -
Cost of residual non-hedgeable risks (222) (222) (122) (100) -
MCEV 5,867 5,502 2,953 2,549 365
GBPm
Total Core Non-core
covered covered Emerging Old Mutual covered
At 31 December 2012 business business Markets1 Wealth business2
Adjusted net worth 2,984 2,304 1,838 466 680
Free surplus 945 698 526 172 247
Required capital 2,039 1,606 1,312 294 433
Value of in-force 3,401 3,456 1,478 1,978 (55)
Present value of future profits 3,946 3,950 1,828 2,122 (4)
Additional time value of financial options and guarantees(3) (53) (14) - (14) (39)
Frictional costs (221) (220) (207) (13) (1)
Cost of residual non-hedgeable risks (271) (260) (143) (117) (11)
MCEV 6,385 5,760 3,316 2,444 625
(1) The required capital in respect of Emerging Markets is partially covered by the market value of the Group’s investments in banking in South Africa. On consolidation these
investments are shown separately.
(2) For 2013, the valuation basis for Old Mutual Bermuda has been simplified from a full bottom-up MCEV calculation to an adjusted IFRS basis and the valuation therefore
does not include a value of in-force component.
(3) The time value of options and guarantees is fully reflected in reserves held as part of ANW in Emerging Markets and Old Mutual Bermuda, and is mostly covered by
reserves held in Old Mutual Wealth. The significant reduction in the time value of options and guarantees in Old Mutual Wealth in 2013 is due to modelling changes.
B4: Analysis of covered business MCEV earnings (after tax)
GBPm
Total covered business Year ended 31 December 2013 Year ended 31 December 2012
Free Required Adjusted Value of Free Required Adjusted Value of
surplus capital net worth in-force MCEV surplus capital net worth in-force MCEV
Opening MCEV 945 2,039 2,984 3,401 6,385 685 1,996 2,681 4,536 7,217
New business value (261) 148 (113) 325 212 (293) 163 (130) 327 197
Expected existing business
contribution (reference
rate) 23 50 73 126 199 20 71 91 156 247
Expected existing business
contribution (in excess of
reference rate) 6 10 16 38 54 3 29 32 49 81
Transfers from VIF and
required capital to free
Surplus 666 (170) 496 (496) - 695 (216) 479 (479) -
Experience variances (47) 38 (9) 14 5 (14) 17 3 6 9
Assumption changes 6 (5) 1 (39) (38) 34 (7) 27 7 34
Other operating variance (26) 5 (21) 72 51 (26) 18 (8) (107) (115)
Operating MCEV earnings 367 76 443 40 483 419 75 494 (41) 453
Economic variances 197 21 218 157 375 258 3 261 259 520
Other non-operating
variance 154 (178) (24) (30) (54) (284) 240 (44) (3) (47)
Total MCEV earnings 718 (81) 637 167 804 393 318 711 215 926
Closing adjustments (793) (267) (1,060) (262) (1,322) (133) (275) (408) (1,350) (1,758)
Capital and dividend flows (658) 7 (651) - (651) 41 (3) 38 1 39
Foreign exchange variance (105) (274) (379) (320) (699) (54) (145) (199) (139) (338)
MCEV of sold business 15 - 15 - 15 (120) (127) (247) (1,212) (1,459)
Other(1) (45) - (45) 58 13 - - - - -
Closing MCEV 870 1,691 2,561 3,306 5,867 945 2,039 2,984 3,401 6,385
Return on MCEV (RoEV)2 per annum 7.6% 6.3%
(1) Other includes the change in valuation basis in Old Mutual Bermuda, the inclusion of certain African entities (Zimbabwe, Kenya, Malawi, Swaziland and Nigeria) on an
MCEV basis and an adjustment to allow for non-controlling interests in Zimbabwe.
(2) Return on MCEV for total covered business is calculated as the operating MCEV earnings after tax divided by opening MCEV in sterling.
GBPm
Year ended 31 December 2013 Year ended 31 December 2012
Adjusted Value of Adjusted Value of
net worth in-force MCEV net worth in-force MCEV
Experience Variances (9) 14 5 3 6 9
Persistency (13) 15 2 51 10 61
Risk 38 5 43 52 - 52
Expenses (24) 1 (23) (48) 12 (36)
Development costs (51) 1 (50) (43) (1) (44)
Other 41 (8) 33 (9) (15) (24)
Assumption changes 1 (39) (38) 27 7 34
Persistency (16) (3) (19) 12 (25) (13)
Risk 5 - 5 13 37 50
Expenses 18 (12) 6 12 12 24
Development costs - (18) (18) - (15) (15)
Other (6) (6) (12) (10) (2) (12)
GBPm
Year ended 31 December2014
Free Required Adjusted Value of
surplus capital net worth in-force MCEV
Expected existing business contribution (reference rate) 30 61 91 144 235
Expected existing business contribution (in excess of reference rate) 5 10 15 43 58
Notes to the MCEV basis supplementary information
For the year ended 31 December 2013
B5: Analysis per business unit
GBPm
Year ended 31 December 2013
Total Core Old Non-core Discontinued
covered covered Emerging Mutual covered covered
business business Markets Wealth business1 business2
Opening MCEV 6,385 5,760 3,316 2,444 625 -
New business value 212 212 136 76 - -
Expected existing business contribution (reference
rate) 199 199 169 30 - -
Expected existing business contribution (in excess of
reference rate) 54 54 30 24 - -
Experience variances 5 (27) 1 (28) 32 -
Assumption changes (38) (38) (12) (26) - -
Other operating variance 51 51 4 47 - -
Operating MCEV earnings 483 451 328 123 32 -
Economic variances 375 355 241 114 20 -
Other non-operating variance (54) (54) (8) (46) - -
Total MCEV earnings 804 752 561 191 52 -
Closing adjustments (1,322) (1,010) (924) (86) (312) -
Capital and dividend flows (651) (300) (187) (113) (351) -
Foreign exchange variance (699) (701) (713) 12 2 -
MCEV of acquired/sold business 15 15 - 15 - -
Other(3) 13 (24) (24) - 37 -
Closing MCEV 5,867 5,502 2,953 2,549 365 -
Return on MCEV (RoEV)(4) per annum 7.6% 7.8% 11.0% 5.0% 4.9% -
Transfers from VIF and required capital to free surplus GBPm
Total Core Old Non-core Discontinued
covered covered Emerging Mutual covered covered
Year ended 31 December 2013 business business Markets Wealth business(1) business(2)
Transfer from value of in-force (496) (496) (189) (307) - -
Transfer from required capital (170) (170) (130) (40) - -
Transfer to free surplus 666 666 319 347 - -
GBPm
Total Core Old Non-core Discontinued
covered covered Emerging Mutual covered covered
Year ended 31 December 2013 business business Markets Wealth business(1) business(2)
Experience variances 5 (27) 1 (28) 32 -
Persistency 2 2 (9) 11 - -
Risk 43 43 40 3 - -
Expenses (23) (23) (17) (6) - -
Development costs (50) (50) (16) (34) - -
Other 33 1 3 (2) 32 -
Assumption changes (38) (38) (12) (26) - -
Persistency (19) (19) (25) 6 - -
Risk 5 5 3 2 - -
Expenses 6 6 25 (19) - -
Development costs (18) (18) (15) (3) - -
Other (12) (12) - (12) - -
(1) A simplified analysis of earnings approach has been adopted for Old Mutual Bermuda according to the new adjusted IFRS valuation approach.
(2) Discontinued covered business relates to MCEV information for previously owned Nordic business.
(3) Other includes the change in valuation basis in Old Mutual Bermuda, the inclusion of certain African entities (Zimbabwe, Kenya, Malawi, Swaziland and Nigeria) on an
MCEV basis and an adjustment to allow for non-controlling interests in Zimbabwe.
(4) Return on MCEV is calculated as the operating MCEV earnings after tax divided by opening MCEV. This is calculated in local currency, apart from total covered and core
covered business, which are calculated in sterling. For Emerging Markets for 2013, this been calculated after adjusting the opening balance for the inclusion of certain
African entities (as above) on an MCEV basis and an adjustment to allow for non-controlling interests in Zimbabwe.
B5: Analysis per business unit
GBPm
Year ended 31 December 2012
Total Core Non-core Discontinued
covered covered Emerging Old Mutual covered covered
business business Markets Wealth business business(1)
Opening MCEV 7,217 5,718 3,172 2,546 66 1,433
New business value 197 197 135 62 - -
Expected existing business contribution (reference rate) 247 239 193 46 8 -
Expected existing business contribution (in excess of
reference rate) 81 55 32 23 26 -
Experience variances 9 (48) (29) (19) 39 18
Assumption changes 34 5 34 (29) 29 -
Other operating variance (115) (112) (37) (75) (3) -
Operating MCEV earnings 453 336 328 8 99 18
Economic variances 520 403 281 122 117 -
Other non-operating variance (47) (29) (26) (3) - (18)
Total MCEV earnings 926 710 583 127 216 -
Closing adjustments (1,758) (668) (439) (229) 343 (1,433)
Capital and dividend flows 39 (321) (132) (189) 360 -
Foreign exchange variance (338) (322) (307) (15) (17) 1
MCEV of acquired/sold business (1,459) (25) - (25) - (1,434)
Closing MCEV 6,385 5,760 3,316 2,444 625 -
Return on MCEV (RoEV)(2) per annum 6.3% 5.9% 10.7% 0.3% 154.0% 1.3%
Transfers from VIF and required capital to free surplus GBPm
Total Core Non-core Discontinued
covered covered Emerging Old Mutual covered covered
Year ended 31 December 2012 business business Markets Wealth business business(1)
Transfer from value of in-force (479) (540) (220) (320) 61 -
Transfer from required capital (216) (190) (153) (37) (26) -
Transfer to free surplus 695 730 373 357 (35) -
GBPm
Total Core Non-core Discontinued
covered covered Emerging Old Mutual covered covered
Year ended 31 December 2012 business business Markets Wealth business business(1)
Experience variances 9 (48) (29) (19) 39 18
Persistency 61 22 (1) 23 39 -
Risk 52 52 46 6 - -
Expenses (36) (38) (16) (22) 2 -
Development costs (44) (44) (25) (19) - -
Other (24) (40) (33) (7) (2) 18
Assumption changes 34 5 34 (29) 29 -
Persistency (13) (32) (6) (26) 19 -
Risk 50 50 49 1 - -
Expenses 24 4 6 (2) 20 -
Development costs (15) (15) (15) - - -
Other (12) (2) - (2) (10) -
(1) Discontinued covered business relates to MCEV information for previously owned Nordic business.
(2) Return on MCEV is calculated as the operating MCEV earnings after tax divided by opening MCEV. This is calculated in local currency, apart from total covered and core
covered business, which are calculated in sterling.
Notes to the MCEV basis supplementary information
For the year ended 31 December 2013
Results highlights
Core covered business
- Favourable market performance led to positive economic variances of GBP241 million in Emerging Markets and GBP114 million in Old Mutual
Wealth.
- Experience variances include development costs of GBP50 million. These costs reflect the cost of projects related to the development of new and
existing business, infrastructure and systems. Excluding these costs, experience variances are a positive GBP23 million for the year.
- The depreciation of the rand against sterling over 2013 has led to reduced earnings from Emerging Markets in sterling and foreign exchange
translation losses in MCEV closing adjustments.
Emerging Markets
New business: VNB increased by 16% (in rand) compared to 2012 mainly due to higher sales volumes in Mass Foundation Cluster, increased
single premium savings sales in Retail Affluent and annuity sales in Corporate Segment. Margins were however reduced by unfavourable operating
assumption changes implemented at the end of 2013 (including the strengthening of persistency assumptions in Mass Foundation Cluster and an
expense allocation change in Mexico).
Experience variances: Experience variances are a positive GBP17 million after excluding the development costs of GBP16 million. Positive mortality
experience on protection business was partially offset by negative expense variances and worsening persistency experience on the Mass
Foundation Cluster protection business. Positive expense variances in South African business units were more than offset by negative expense
variances arising from central costs and costs in other emerging markets businesses (particularly in the Mexican business and those African
businesses which are still sub-scale).
Operating assumption changes: Assumption changes include the strengthening of persistency assumptions used for Mass Foundation Cluster
products (including distinguishing between debit order and stop order persistency) and an increased provision for development expenditure. These
impacts are partially offset by the lowering of per-policy maintenance expense assumptions in Mass Foundation Cluster following the significant
growth in the size of this business and the achievement of unit cost efficiencies.
Other operating variances: This includes various modelling changes and management actions. The most significant impacts relate to the effect of
changes to the modelling of annual premium and cover increases on Mass Foundation Cluster funeral products and an improvement in the
methodology used to value capital preservation options sold with Retail Affluent in-payment annuity products. These effects were largely offsetting.
Economic variances: Economic variances are mainly due to favourable investment performance on policyholder and shareholder funds, which
include growth in local equity markets, particularly in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Malawi, and increased returns from assets invested in overseas
markets due to the depreciation of the rand.
Other non-operating variances: Negative non-operating variances in 2013 include the impact of refinements to the way in which shareholder tax is
reflected in MCEV models.
Closing adjustments: Significant net transfer items relate to the purchase of the Latin American businesses and the purchase of additional African
operations in Ghana and Nigeria, as well as net dividends paid (after allowing for dividends received from Nedbank and the Property and Casualty
business). In addition, the significant negative foreign exchange variance has resulted from the depreciation of the rand against sterling over 2013.
Old Mutual Wealth
New business: VNB increased by 23% compared to 2012, largely due to lower acquisition costs following a number of cost saving measures
implemented at the end of 2012. This impact was partially offset by a shift in UK Platform sales to products on less profitable charging structures.
Overall sales for Old Mutual Wealth have declined slightly, with lower volumes from closed businesses mostly offset by improved sales volumes
from Core and Manage for Value (Open) businesses.
Expected existing business contribution: The reduction in the expected existing business contribution compared to 2012 is mainly a result of lower
risk-free yields at the start of 2013 used to calculate the expected investment return. In addition, the sale of Finland in 2012 has reduced the value
of expected transfers in 2013.
Experience variances: Experience variances are a positive GBP6 million after excluding development costs of GBP34 million (including Wealth Interactive,
Digital and the second phase of the Retail Distribution Review systems project). Positive persistency experience in the International business and
positive mortality experience on protection products in Switzerland and Germany were partially offset by expense over-runs in the International
business.
Operating assumption changes: Assumption changes are largely driven by the strengthening of per-policy maintenance expense assumptions in the
International business and the reduction in assumed switching fee income in the International business (recorded in ‘other’). Persistency
assumption changes are driven by the lightening of persistency assumptions on the UK Legacy unit-linked business, partially offset by the impact of
anticipated transfers to lower margin charging structures on the UK Platform.
Other operating variances: The positive impact is mainly due to modelling changes implemented in the valuation of the German business. Other
operating variances also include largely offsetting effects from the reduction in the CNHR due to improvements made to the assumed run off of risk
capital and refinements to the pattern of assumed expenses in Germany as the business runs off.
Economic variances: Favourable economic variances were mainly due to investment gains on policyholder funds, which include favourable UK
equity market performance, partially offset by the adverse impact of higher yields on the value of in-force business.
Other non-operating variances: Negative non-operating variances include the impact of changes in regulatory conditions of GBP24 million in Germany
and GBP14 million in Switzerland, as well as costs related to the Nordic divestment of GBP13 million and the outsourcing of administration in the UK
business of GBP10 million. These impacts are partially offset by the effect of reducing the UK shareholder tax rate from 23% to 20%.
Closing adjustments: Net transfers consist largely of the payment of dividends to Old Mutual plc. In addition, net transfers include capital
contributions made to the UK Platform asset management business. MCEV of acquired/sold business consists of the release of a tax provision
related to the sale of the Finnish business.
Non-core covered business (Old Mutual Bermuda)
As a result of the change to a simplified analysis of earnings approach, all earnings are recorded under other operating experience variances, apart
from variable annuity guarantee performance (net of hedge performance) and seed capital gains and losses, which are recorded in economic
variances.
Experience variances: Positive experience is largely driven by favourable variable annuity persistency experience of GBP9 million and assumption
changes of GBP10 million following the five year anniversary top-up period. In addition, there have been positive contributions from spread income on
OM Group (UK) Limited loan notes of GBP7 million (net of interest credited to fixed annuity business), and an excess of fee income over operating and
commission expenses of GBP4 million.
Economic variances: Favourable economic variances are largely due to positive variable annuity guarantee performance of GBP14 million (net of
hedge experience) driven by the rise in US interest rates. In addition, economic variances include unrealised gains on seed capital investments of
GBP7 million.
Closing adjustments: Capital and dividend flows are made up of the repatriation of GBP351 million of capital resources via the cancellation of OM
Group (UK) Limited loan notes. Other closing adjustments consist of the valuation basis change from a bottom-up MCEV calculation basis to an
adjusted IFRS basis of GBP37 million.
Notes to the MCEV basis supplementary information
For the year ended 31 December 2013
C: Other supporting information
C1: Value of new business (after tax)
The tables below set out the regional analysis of the value of new business (VNB) after tax. New business profitability is measured by both the ratio
of the VNB to the present value of new business premiums (PVNBP) as well as to the annual premium equivalent (APE), and shown under PVNBP
margin and APE margin below. APE is calculated as recurring premiums plus 10% of single premiums. Old Mutual Bermuda is excluded from the
tables below as it is closed to new business.
Year ended 31 December 2013 GBPm
Annualised PVNBP
recurring Single capitalisation PVNBP APE
premiums premiums PVNBP factors(1) APE VNB margin margin
Core covered business 466 6,470 8,965 5.4 1,113 212 2.4% 19%
Emerging Markets(2) 355 1,513 3,409 5.3 507 136 4.0% 27%
Old Mutual Wealth 111 4,957 5,556 5.4 606 76 1.4% 13%
Total covered business 466 6,470 8,965 5.4 1,113 212 2.4% 19%
Year ended 31 December 2012 GBPm
Annualised PVNBP
recurring Single capitalisation PVNBP APE
premiums premiums PVNBP factors(1) APE VNB margin margin
Core covered business 517 5,953 8,665 5.2 1,112 197 2.3% 18%
Emerging Markets(3) 370 1,321 3,331 5.4 502 135 4.1% 27%
Old Mutual Wealth 147 4,632 5,334 4.8 610 62 1.2% 10%
Total covered business 517 5,953 8,665 5.2 1,112 197 2.3% 18%
(1) The PVNBP capitalisation factors are calculated as follows: (PVNBP – single premiums)/annualised recurring premiums.
(2) New business figures for Rest of Africa (net of minority interests), other than Namibia, are included under Emerging Markets for the first time in 2013. This includes
new business annualised recurring premiums of GBP15 million, single premiums of GBP49 million, APE of GBP20 million and VNB of GBP2 million in respect of the life business in
Zimbabwe, Malawi, Kenya, Swaziland and Nigeria. 2012 information has not been restated to reflect this change.
(3) New business figures for Rest of Africa (gross of minority interests), other than Namibia, were not included in the 2012 information reported above as no value of new
business and PVNBP calculations were reported for these businesses in 2012. The amounts for 2012, in respect of the life business in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Kenya,
Swaziland and Nigeria are new business single premiums of GBP37 million, annualised recurring premiums of GBP17 million, and APE of GBP21 million.
Additional new business written in the Group:
The value of some of the new individual unit trust linked retirement annuities and pension fund asset management business written by the Emerging
Markets long-term business of GBP1,011 million (2012: GBP1,093 million) is excluded from VNB above as the profits in this business arise in the asset
management business. The value of new business also excludes premium increases arising from indexation arrangements in respect of existing
business, as these are already included in the value of in-force business.
Additionally, new business single premiums of GBP202 million, annualised recurring premiums of GBP33 million, and APE of GBP53 million, in respect of the
life business in India and China have been excluded from 2013 information above, as no value of new business and PVNBP calculations have been
performed for these businesses.
C2: Adjustments applied in determining total Group MCEV earnings before tax
GBPm
Year ended 31 December 2013 Year ended 31 December 2012
Non-
Covered Non-covered Total Covered covered Total
business business Group business business Group
MCEV IFRS MCEV MCEV IFRS MCEV
Income/(expense)
Goodwill impairment and amortisation of non-covered
business acquired intangible assets and impact of
acquisition accounting - (10) (10) - (7) (7)
Economic variances 513 (6) 507 657 (11) 646
Other non-operating variances (57) - (57) (56) - (56)
Loss on disposal of subsidiaries, associated
undertakings and strategic investments - (4) (4) - (12) (12)
Other Group adjustments related to Nordic disposal (13) 14 1 (14) 615 601
Restructuring costs (10) (10) (20) - - -
Dividends declared to holders of perpetual preferred
callable securities - 42 42 - 42 42
Premium paid on early repayment of senior debt - - - - (71) (71)
US Asset Management equity plans - (38) (38) - (13) (13)
Fair value (losses)/gains on Group debt instruments - (31) (31) - (57) (57)
Adjusting items 433 (43) 390 587 486 1,073
Adjusting items from continuing operations 446 (57) 389 605 (113) 492
Adjusting items from discontinued operations (13) 14 1 (18) 599 581
Total MCEV adjusting items 433 (43) 390 587 486 1,073
C3: Other movements in IFRS net equity impacting Group MCEV
GBPm
Year ended 31 December 2013 Year ended 31 December 2012
Non- Non-
Covered covered Total Covered covered Total
business business Group business business Group
MCEV IFRS MCEV MCEV IFRS MCEV
Fair value movements - 17 17 - (328) (328)
Net investment hedge - 43 43 - 160 160
Currency translation differences/exchange
differences on translating foreign operations (699) (688) (1,387) (338) (677) (1,015)
Aggregate tax effects of items taken directly to or
transferred from equity - 10 10 - 9 9
Other movements1 15 - 15 (1,444) 1,449 5
Net income recognised directly into equity (684) (618) (1,302) (1,782) 613 (1,169)
Capital and dividend flows for the year(2) (651) 268 (383) 24 (1,238) (1,214)
Other(3) 13 (10) 3 - - -
Net sale of treasury shares - 55 55 - 8 8
Premium on preferred securities purchased - (21) (21) - - -
Other shares issued - 11 11 - 33 33
Change in share based payment reserve - 48 48 - 62 62
Other movements in net equity (1,322) (267) (1,589) (1,758) (522) (2,280)
(1) December 2012 includes the sale of the Finnish branch in Old Mutual Wealth, the impact of the IAS 19 restatement and the transfer of the Nordic covered MCEV
balance on disposal.
(2) December 2013 capital and dividend flows from the covered business includes the repatriation of funds from Old Mutual Bermuda to Old Mutual plc of GBP351 million.
December 2012 capital and dividend flows from the covered business include the purchase of the Rest of Africa businesses by Emerging Markets from Old Mutual plc
and the capital injection of GBP360 million into Old Mutual Bermuda. The special dividend of GBP915 million, paid in 2012, is included in non-covered business.
(3) Other for covered business includes the change in valuation basis in Old Mutual Bermuda, the inclusion of certain African entities (Zimbabwe, Kenya, Malawi,
Swaziland and Nigeria) on an MCEV basis and an adjustment to allow for non-controlling interests in Zimbabwe.
Notes to the MCEV basis supplementary information
For the year ended 31 December 2013
C4: Reconciliation of MCEV adjusted net worth to IFRS net asset value for the covered business
The table below provides a reconciliation of the MCEV adjusted net worth (ANW) to the IFRS net asset value (NAV) for the covered
business.
GBPm
Total Core Non-core
covered covered Emerging Old Mutual covered
At 31 December 2013 business business Markets Wealth business
IFRS net asset value1 3,823 3,451 1,212 2,239 372
Adjustment to include long-term business on a
statutory solvency basis (759) (759) 158 (917) -
Inclusion of Group equity and debt instruments
held in life funds 307 307 293 14 -
Goodwill (769) (769) (8) (761) -
Other(2) (41) (34) (34) - (7)
Adjusted net worth attributable to ordinary
equity holders of the parent(3) 2,561 2,196 1,621 575 365
GBPm
Total Core Non-core
covered covered Emerging Old Mutual covered
At 31 December 2012 business business Markets Wealth business
IFRS net asset value(1) 4,308 3,600 1,295 2,305 708
Adjustment to include long-term business on a
statutory solvency basis (926) (898) 187 (1,085) (28)
Inclusion of Group equity and debt instruments
held in life funds 367 367 364 3 -
Goodwill (765) (765) (8) (757) -
Adjusted net worth attributable to ordinary
equity holders of the parent(3) 2,984 2,304 1,838 466 680
(1) IFRS net asset value is after elimination of inter-company loans.
(2) Other includes a restatement of Old Mutual Bermuda variable annuity guarantee liabilities from an IFRS basis to a best estimate valuation consistent with MCEV
principles,partially offset by seed capital investment gains, and an adjustment to allow for non-controlling interests in Zimbabwe.
(3) A further GBP(32) million (2012: GBP(36) million) of adjustments relates to the non-covered business. This brings the total adjustment to IFRS net asset value to GBP1,294 million
(2012: GBP1,360 million).
The adjustments to include long-term business on a statutory solvency basis reflect the difference between the net worth of each business on the
statutory basis (as required by the local regulator) and their portion of the Group’s consolidated equity shareholder funds. In South Africa, these
values exclude items that are eliminated or shown separately on consolidation (such as Nedbank and inter-company loans). For some European
countries the value reflected in the adjustment to include long-term business on a statutory solvency basis includes the value of the deferred
acquisition cost asset, which is part of the equity.
The adjustment to include long-term business on a statutory solvency basis includes the following:
- The excess of the IFRS amount of the deferred acquisition cost (DAC) and value of business acquired (VOBA) assets over the statutory levels
included in the VIF.
- When projecting future profits on a statutory basis, the VIF includes the shareholders’ value of unrealised capital gains. To the extent that
assets in IFRS are valued at market and the market value is higher than the statutory book value, these profits have already been taken into
account in the IFRS equity.
C5: Reconciliation of movements in Group and Adjusted Group MCEV (after tax)
GBPm
Year ended 31 December 2013 Year ended 31 December 2012
Covered Non-covered Total Covered Non-covered Total
business business Group business business Group
Notes MCEV IFRS MCEV MCEV IFRS MCEV
Opening Group MCEV 6,385 2,790 9,175 7,217 2,491 9,708
Adjusted operating MCEV earnings B4 483 384 867 453 323 776
Non-operating MCEV earnings 321 (18) 303 473 498 971
Total Group MCEV earnings 804 366 1,170 926 821 1,747
Other movements in IFRS net equity C3 (1,322) (267) (1,589) (1,758) (522) (2,280)
Closing Group MCEV 5,867 2,889 8,756 6,385 2,790 9,175
Adjustments to bring Group investments
to market value B1 - 1,406 1,406 - 1,615 1,615
Adjusted Group MCEV 5,867 4,295 10,162 6,385 4,405 10,790
D1: Sensitivity tests
The table below shows the sensitivity of the MCEV, value of in-force business at 31 December 2013 and the value of new business for the year
ended 31 December 2013 to the following:
- Economic assumptions 100 bps increase/decrease: Increasing/decreasing all pre-tax investment and economic assumptions (projected
investment returns and inflation) by 100 bps, with credited rates and discount rates changing commensurately.
- Equity/property market value 10% increase/decrease: Equity and property market value increasing/ decreasing by 10%, with all pre-tax
investment and economic assumptions unchanged.
- 10 bps increase of liquidity spreads: Recognising the present value of an additional 10bps of liquidity spreads assumed on corporate bonds
over the lifetime of the liabilities, with credited rates and discount rates changing commensurately.
- 50bps contraction on corporate bond spreads.
- 25% increase in equity/property and swaption implied volatilities: 25% multiplicative increase in implied volatilities.
- 10% decrease in discontinuance rates/10% decrease in maintenance expense: Maintenance expense levels decreasing by 10%, with no
corresponding decrease in policy charges.
- 5% decrease in mortality/morbidity rates: Mortality and morbidity assumptions for assurances decreasing by 5%, with no corresponding
decrease in policy charges.
- 5% decrease in annuitant mortality assumption: Mortality assumption for annuities decreasing by 5%, with no corresponding increase in
policy charges.
- VNB 10% increase in acquisition expenses: For value of new business, acquisition expenses other than commission and commission
related expenses increasing by 10%, with no corresponding increase in policy charges.
- VNB on closing economic assumptions: Value of new business calculated on economic assumptions at the end of reporting period.
- Minimum capital requirement: Required capital equal to the minimum statutory requirement.
- NHR capital diversification: Residual non-hedgeable risk capital reduced to incorporate diversification benefits between hedgeable and non-
hedgeable risks for covered business.
- 99.93% confidence level NHR capital: Economic capital for residual non-hedgeable risks calculated assuming a 99.93% confidence level.
For each sensitivity illustrated, all other assumptions have been left unchanged except where they are directly affected by the revised conditions.
Sensitivity scenarios therefore include consistent changes in cash flows directly affected by the changed assumption(s), for example future bonus
participation in changed economic scenarios.
In some jurisdictions the reserving basis that underlies shareholder distributable cash flows is dynamic, and in theory some sensitivities could
change not only future experience but also reserving levels. Modelling of dynamic reserves is extremely complex and the effect on value is second-
order. Therefore, in performing the sensitivities, reserving bases have been kept constant for non-linked business (including non-linked reserves for
linked business) whilst only varying future experience assumptions with similar considerations applying to required capital. However, the
sensitivities for South Africa in respect of an increase/decrease of all pre-tax investment and economic assumptions, an increase/decrease in equity
and property market values and increases in equity, property and swaption implied volatilities allow for the change in the time value of financial
options and guarantees that form part of the Investment Guarantee Reserves (IGR).
The sensitivities for an increase/decrease in all pre-tax investment and economic assumptions (with credited rates and discount rates changing
commensurately) are calculated in line with a parallel shift in risk free reference spot rates rather than risk free reference forward rates. However,
the 1% reduction is limited so that it does not lead to negative risk free reference rates.
VNB sensitivities assume that the scenario arises immediately after point of sale of the contract. Therefore no allowance is made for the ability to re-
price any contracts in the sensitivity scenarios, apart from the mortality sensitivities for the South African business where allowance is made for
changes in the pricing basis for products with reviewable premiums.
Notes to the MCEV basis supplementary information
For the year ended 31 December 2013
Sensitivity tests: MCEV
GBPm
At 31 December 2013 At 31 December 2012
Value of in- Value of Value of in- Value of
force new force new
MCEV business business MCEV business business
Central assumptions 5,867 3,306 212 6,365 3,401 197
MCEV, VIF & VNB given changes in:
Economic assumption 100bps increase 5,739 3,188 199 6,253 3,285 180
Economic assumption 100bps decrease 5,990 3,412 222 6,471 3,505 215
Equity/property market value 10% increase 6,030 3,418 219 6,647 3,632 206
Equity/property market value 10% decrease 5,629 3,122 206 6,169 3,248 192
10bps increase of liquidity spreads 5,873 3,312 213 6,374 3,410 198
50bps contraction on corporate bond spreads 5,879 3,306 212 6,380 3,402 197
25% increase in equity/property implied volatilities 5,790 3,236 212 6,311 3,358 197
25% increase in swaption implied volatilities 5,854 3,293 212 6,353 3,389 197
10% decrease in discontinuance rates 6,031 3,473 251 6,519 3,568 237
10% decrease in maintenance expense 6,043 3,482 229 6,580 3,616 216
5% decrease in mortality/morbidity rates 5,976 3,415 227 6,495 3,531 214
5% decrease in annuitant mortality assumption 5,863 3,302 211 6,358 3,394 197
VNB 10% increase in acquisition expenses n/a n/a 197 n/a n/a 180
VNB on closing economic assumptions n/a n/a 206 n/a n/a 205
Minimum capital requirement 5,920 3,359 217 6,421 3,457 202
NHR capital diversification 5,893 3,332 215 6,408 3,444 201
99.93% confidence level NHR capital 5,822 3,261 207 6,306 3,342 192
Sponsor
Merrill Lynch South Africa (Pty) Ltd
Date: 28/02/2014 09:02:00 Produced by the JSE SENS Department. The SENS service is an information dissemination service administered by the JSE Limited ('JSE').
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