Wrap Text
MTN - MTN Group Limited - Release of subscriber numbers for the quarter ended 30
September 2011
MTN Group Limited
(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)
Registration Number 1994/009584/06
Share code: MTN
ISIN: ZAE000042164
("MTN Group")
RELEASE OF SUBSCRIBER NUMBERS FOR THE QUARTER ENDED 30 September 2011
MTN Group recorded 158 590 000 subscribers at 30 September 2011. This is a 4.1%
increase for the quarter from 152 272 000 subscribers recorded at 30 June 2011.
During the quarter, MTN has successfully maintained market share in most of its
markets. Although social unrest remained a factor in some countries, Syria,
Yemen and Cote d`Ivoire increased net connections during the quarter.
The analysis is presented on a regional basis. The subscriber bases of the three
regions continue to grow at marginally different rates and as a result, when
compared to June 2011, the subscriber contribution between the regions has
remained relatively unchanged. South and East Africa (SEA) region contributed
23% (June 2011: 22%) of the Group`s total subscribers, while West and Central
Africa (WECA) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) contributed 44% (June
2011: 45%) and 33% (June 2011: 33%), respectively.
The SEA region increased its subscriber base by 5.1% for the quarter. This
satisfactory growth was attributable to South Africa which increased its
subscriber base by 5.9% to 20,968,000 for the quarter and contributed 58% to the
region`s subscribers. Net connections for the South African operation reflected
a strong improvement during the quarter. Postpaid connections, both classic and
hybrid, improved through both independent retail and branded channels, largely
due to improved stock availability and increased channel activity. Prepaid
connections for the quarter totaled 1.036 million, almost double the rate
achieved for the second quarter. Uganda increased its subscriber base by 3.7% to
7,508,000. During the period, revenue growth became a more important priority
and tariffs were successfully increased. While subscriber growth was still
satisfactory, there was a marginal loss in subscriber market share.
The WECA region increased its subscriber base by 2.8% for the quarter as a
result of slower subscriber growth in Nigeria. Subscriber registration had a
negative impact on connections as the GSM market declined from 82.7 million to
81.84 million subscribers during the third quarter. MTN Nigeria recorded a 1.4%
increase in its subscriber base to 41,107,000, contributing 59% to the region`s
subscribers. Following the introduction of new pricing plans and segmented value
proposition during August and September, net connection performance improved
during the quarter, particularly in September when 459,000 net connections were
recorded. The SIM registration deadline has been extended indefinitely. At the
end of September 2011, 73% of the base had been registered by MTN Nigeria. MTN
Nigeria received notice from the Nigerian Communications Commission ("NCC") that
it, together with two other operators, had not complied with the NCC quality of
service requirements. Further that MTN Nigeria had 30 days from 1 November 2011
to meet the set targets as set out in the notice. Failure to comply will result
in the NCC directive in the time frame given, will require all new sales of SIM
cards to be stopped and the imposition of a financial penalty. MTN is engaged
with the regulator on the content and consequences of the allegations. Ghana
continued to show good growth and increased its subscriber base by 3.4% to
9,894,000, maintaining its leadership position.
The MENA region recorded a 5.3% increase in subscribers for the quarter. The
growth within the region was mainly attributable to Iran which increased its
subscribers by 3.5% to 33,314,000 and now contributes 64% of the region`s
subscribers. Syria increased its subscribers by 6.0% to 5,428,000 as the
operation adjusted to the changing conditions resulting from the political
turmoil in the country. Sudan made good progress and increased its subscriber
base by 17% to 5,374,000 as initiatives continued gaining traction.
MTN South Africa`s blended average revenue per user ("ARPU") remained stable at
R133.8 compared to 30 June 2011. No material changes were made to the value
proposition and average outgoing minutes of use increased marginally for the
quarter. Nigerian ARPU in remained stable despite a marginal reduction in
effective tariff. Ghana`s ARPU in US $ decreased by 1% due to local currency
depreciation. Local currency ARPU`s in Ghana and Iran remained relatively
constant with stable effective tariffs and average outgoing minutes. Uganda
showed a small upward trend in local currency ARPU as higher effective tariffs
did not reduce outgoing minutes of use following the increase in tariffs during
the quarter.
As markets mature, steady progress has continued in developing and implementing
various group initiatives, particularly in the centralization of procurement,
developing a data strategy to pursue the rapidly evolving market opportunity,
and on various cost optimization opportunities. Although many data services
initiatives are in early stages of execution, data growth continues to be robust
across the group. Data contributes 21% (13% excluding SMS) and 6% (3% excluding
SMS) of revenue (excluding handsets and accessory revenue in South Africa and
Nigeria respectively, with Smartphone penetration a key enabler of data growth.
Upstreaming of cash from all key operating companies, other than Syria, has
continued successfully. This is in line with the strategy of increasing returns
to shareholders and ultimately providing the flexibility to improve the capital
structure. Increases in the level of capital expenditure will not meaningfully
impact on this.
Approximately 90% of the full year guidance for capital expenditure is projected
to be capitalized by year end. The bulk of the orders for the remaining 10% will
still be placed in 2011, but capitalized in 2012.
Revised 2011 net additions guidance
August (000`) October (000`)
South Africa 2,000 2,700
Nigeria 4,400 3,200
Ghana 1 300 1,500
Iran 4 500 4,400
Syria 500 730
Rest 7 700 9,300
20 100 21,830
Subscriber Numbers
Jun-11 Sep-11 % change Contributi
on %
Subs `001 Subs `001
SEA
South Africa 19,799 20,968 5.9% 58%
Post-paid 3,555 3,688 3.7% 10%
Pre-paid 16,244 17,280 6.4% 48%
Uganda 7,241 7,508 3.7% 21%
Mascom - 1,481 1,509 1.9% 4%
Botswana
Rwanda 2,794 2,864 2.5% 8%
Zambia 2,173 2,383 9.7% 7%
Swaziland 718 710 -1.1% 2%
Sub total 34,206 35,942 5.1% 22.7%
WECA
Nigeria 40,540 41,107 1.4% 59%
Ghana 9,562 9,894 3.4% 14%
Cameroon 4,879 5,464 12.0% 8%
Cote d`Ivoire 5,644 5,944 5.3% 9%
Benin 2,305 2,300 -0.2% 3%
Conakry 2,110 2,183 3.5% 3%
Congo- 1,731 1,729 -0.1% 2%
Brazzaville
Liberia 852 939 10.2% 1%
Bissau 599 587 -2.0% 1%
Sub total 68,222 70,147 2.8% 44.2%
MENA
Iran 32,182 33,314 3.5% 64%
Syria 5,123 5,428 6.0% 10%
Sudan 4,594 5,374 17.0% 10%
Afghanistan 4,338 4,412 1.7% 8%
Yemen 3,344 3,693 10.4% 7%
Cyprus 263 280 6.2% 1%
Sub total 49,844 52,501 5.3% 33.1%
Total 152,272 158,590 4.1% 100%
ARPU
Jun-11 Sep-11 % change LC %
change
YTD ARPU YTD ARPU
SEA US $ US $
South Africa (R) n/a 0%
134.0 134.0
Post-paid (R) n/a 0%
291.0 291.0
Pre-paid (R) n/a 0%
99.8 100.0
Uganda -3% 2%
3.4 3.3
Mascom - Botswana 10.3 2% 3%
10.1
Rwanda 6% 6%
3.6 3.8
Zambia 6% 9%
4.7 5.0
Swaziland 0% 0%
13.9 13.9
WECA
Nigeria 0% 0%
9.8 9.8
Ghana -1% 0%
7.0 6.9
Cameroon -1% -1%
7.6 7.5
Cote d`Ivoire 0% 0%
5.8 5.8
Benin 1% 1%
8.7 8.8
Conakry 0% 0%
4.7 4.7
Congo- Brazzaville 4% 4%
9.4 9.8
Liberia -3% -3%
10.4 10.1
Bissau -3% -4%
7.1 6.9
MENA
Iran 0% 2%
7.9 7.9
Syria 1% 1%
14.1 14.3
Sudan -4% -4%
4.6 4.4
Afghanistan 0% 3%
4.8 4.8
Yemen 2% 6%
5.7 5.8
Cyprus -4% -4%
33.0 31.6
Subscribers are customers who have participated in a revenue generating activity
in the last 90 days. ARPU is the monthly weighted average revenue per
subscriber. Revenue includes interconnect fees and excludes connection fees and
visitor roaming revenue, and this is divided by the weighted average subscriber
base over the period.
South Africa subscribers and ARPU`s include community service payphones
into pre-paid and application providers into post-paid.
Fairland
27 October 2011
Sponsor
Deutsche Securities (SA) (Proprietary) Limited
Date: 27/10/2011 12:27:06 Supplied by www.sharenet.co.za
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